Labour Market: Quebec Loses Ground, Ontario Makes Gains

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ECONOMIC NEWS Labour Market: Loses Ground, Makes Gains HIGHLIGHTS ff As in August, s labour market dipped slightly in September (-7,6).

ff recorded a third strong consecutive monthly gain (+34,7) in September. ff The unemployment rate decreased by.1 of a percentage point to 5.

Between and September, the balance was negative (-8,9), while +39,4 new jobs were added between April and June. However, full-time jobs advanced during this period (+21,6).

1 ECONOMIC NEWS Labour Market: Loses Ground, Makes Gains HIGHLIGHTS ff As in August, s labour market dipped slightly in September (-7,6). ff The unemployment rate ticked down from % to % due to the 12,4 workers and job seekers who left the workforce, which casts a shadow on the new drop in the unemployment rate. ff recorded a third strong consecutive monthly gain (+34,7) in September. ff The unemployment rate decreased by.1 of a percentage point to 5.6% this is not a record as the rate fell to below 5% a few times in 1988 and COMMENTS In, the balance for the third quarter contrasts sharply with the previous quarter s results. Between and September, the balance was negative (-8,9), while +39,4 new jobs were added between April and June. However, full-time jobs advanced during this period (+21,6). In September, the loss of 7,6 jobs was due to a decrease of 24,9 part-time jobs, which was partially offset by a gain of 17,3 full-time jobs. The education (+1,7) and business services (+ 9,6) sectors boosted their ranks, while professional, scientific and technical services (-12,3) and manufacturing (-7,1) lost ground. In, the third quarter could be described as booming, with 91,3 new jobs. The gains made during the quarter from April to June were clearly more modest (+12,2). In September, full-time jobs (+77,8) far outweighed part-time jobs (-43,3). The sectors that advanced the most were wholesale and retail sales (+16,4) and educational services (+14,7). The information, culture and recreation (-17,5) and business services (-8,) sectors saw their number of workers decline. #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA GRAPH Job growth since the recession has been steady in and 4,3 7,3 4,2 7,1 4,1 6,9 4, 6,7 3,9 6,5 3, (left) 6,3 (right) Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies Over the past year, job growth has been more energetic in, with a 2.4% increase compared with 1.3% in. IMPLICATIONS The third quarter ended in on a negative note with job losses, while powered ahead. Does this mean is taking a break? Will the labour market in run out of steam? We still have three months to go before the end of and many jolts could occur. The uncertainty surrounding the North American Free Trade Agreement negotiations could slow the pace of hiring. That said, the rollout of the Canadian Free Trade Agreement in and the agreement with Europe in September could support the labour market. The next few months will be telling indeed. Joëlle Noreau, Senior Economist François Dupuis, Vice-President and Chief Economist Hélène Bégin, Senior Economist Benoit P. Durocher, Senior Economist Francis Généreux, Senior Economist Joëlle Noreau, Senior Economist Desjardins, Economic Studies: or , ext desjardins.economics@desjardins.com desjardins.com/economics NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Desjardins Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Desjardins Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Desjardins Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. The data on prices or margins are provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time, based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. The opinions and forecasts contained herein are, unless otherwise indicated, those of the document s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Desjardins Group. Copyright, Desjardins Group. All rights reserved.

2 Labour market reference tables TABLE 1 Variation by sector September Educational services Wholesale and retail trade Construction Other services 2, 16,6 7,4 5,1 6,9 99,3 23, -6,4 Educational services Business services Construction Accommodation and food services 1,7 9,6 5,9 1,2 4,1-5,7 4, -13,2 Wholesale and retail trade Educational services Other services Manufacturing 16,4 14,7 7,8 7, 62,5-5,7-2,1 2,4 GAINING SECTORS Information, culture and recreation Health care and social assistance Prof., scientific and technical services Accommodation and food services -23,7-1,4-6,3-4,2-19,5 5,3 78,3-16,1 Prof., scientific and technical services Manufacturing Finance, insurance, real estate Public administration -12,3-7,1-3,9-3,7 21,9-8,9 1, 2,7 Information, culture and recreation Business services Health care and social assistance Finance, insurance, real estate -17,5-8, -7,9-3, -19,2-15,3 3, 8,2 LOSING SECTORS Source: Statistics 's "Labour Force Survey" TABLE 2 By sector NUMBER OF JOBS September 3 months Dec. (%) 18,454,1 4,224,4 7,172,1 1, -7,6 34,7 43,1-8,9 91,3 229,1 25,2 125,7 319,7 53,5 169, Public sector employees 3,73,5 945,8 1,331,1 26,2 5 16,3 18,7 3,8 2, 57,3 24,3 1,8 12,7 31,8 32, Private sector employees 11,882,6 2,719,1 4,713,6-15,5-1,5 9,2-2,8-14,8 5,6 68,7-9,1 7, 161,8 15,8 95, ,84,9 559,4 1,127,3-8 -6,7 9,1 45,1 1,9 2,6 12,9 9,9 44,8 55,1 5,8 41, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA Self-employed Source: Statistics 's "Labour Force Survey" 2

3 TABLE 3 Recent trends SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA EMPLOYMENT LABOUR FORCE RATE (%) Numbers 3 months Numbers * Part. Empl. Unempl. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. March April May Sept. 18,134,4 18,181,3 18,178,9 18,225, 18,273,3 18,288,6 18,38, 18,311,2 18,365,7 18,411, 18,421,9 18,444,1 18,454,1 64,6 46,9-2,4 46,1 48,3 15,3 19,4 3,2 54,5 45,3 1,9 22,2 1, 74,2 147, 19,1 9,6 92, 19,7 83, 37,9 77,1 13, 11,7 78,4 43,1 153,1 165, 197,1 229, 276,1 288,1 276,4 275,7 316,8 35,8 387,6 374,3 319,7 19,495,2 19,546,3 19,55,1 19,566,6 19,597,7 19,574,7 19,621,7 19,576,2 19,654,6 19,681,2 19,668,7 19,67,7 19,668,1 61,9 51,1-41,2 61,5 31,1-23, 47, -45,5 78,4 26,6-12,5 2, -2, Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. March April May Sept. 4,17,9 4,176,3 4,18,9 4,199,2 4,22,6 4,191,5 4,193,9 4,19,1 4,25, 4,233,3 4,238, 4,232, 4,224,4 32,2 5,4 4,6 18,3 3,4-11,1 2,4-3,8 14,9 28,3 4,7-6, -7,6 59,3 62,6 42,2 28,3 26,3 1,6-5,3-12,5 13,5 39,4 47,9 27, -8,9 69,8 78,5 87,6 9,8 97,1 83, 96,6 88, 83,3 121,7 124,3 93,3 53,5 4,478,2 4,476,7 4,456,6 4,493,3 4,482,1 4,478,2 4,479,4 4,484,6 4,472,2 4,54,4 4,5,6 4,54,9 4,492,5 26,5-1,5-2,1 36,7-11,2-3,9 1,2 5,2-12,4 32,2-3,8 4,3-12, Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. March April May Sept. 7,2,6 7,28,1 7,4, 7,46,4 7,75,2 7,79,8 7,68,6 7,67, 7,86,9 7,8,8 7,16,3 7,137,4 7,172,1 18,9 25,5 11,9 6,4 28,8 4,6-11,2-1,6 19,9-6,1 25,5 31,1 34,7-3,1 59,7 56,3 43,8 47,1 39,8 22,2-8,2 7,1 12,2 39,3 5,5 91,3 85,1 88,2 17,3 83,6 9,1 17,5 86,3 86,6 86, 75,1 137,9 153,7 169,5 7,492,5 7,59,2 7,58, 7,525,6 7,559,9 7,549, 7,551,2 7,54,4 7,576,5 7,563,8 7,571,4 7,565,7 7,61, 6,5 16,7-1,2 17,6 34,3-1,9 2,2-46,8 72,1-12,7 7,6-5,7 35, Part.: Participation; Empl.: Employment; Unempl.: Unemployment; * Variation over a month. Source: Statistics 's "Labour Force Survey" 3

4 TABLE 4 Other labour market indicators LAST PUBLICATION PREVIOUS DATA Month Level - -3 months -6 months - Average weekly wages ($) Average hours worked in the manufacturing sector 1, , , , , Average weekly wages ($) Average hours worked in the manufacturing sector 1, , ,14 1, ,19.33 Average weekly wages ($) Average hours worked in the manufacturing sector 1, , , , , SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA Source: Statistics 's "Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours" TABLE 5 Annual data ANNUAL AVERAGES 211 Job growth (%) Unemployment rate (%) 17,221, 256, ,438, 217, ,691,1 253, ,82,2 111,1.6 17,946,6 144,4.8 18,79,9 133, Job growth (%) Unemployment rate (%) 3,975,6 37,7 1. 4,5,9 3, ,6,8 54, ,59,7-1, ,97, 37, ,133,1 36, Job growth (%) Unemployment rate (%) 6,658,4 12, ,72,6 44,2.7 6,823,4 12, ,877,9 54, ,923,2 45, ,999,6 76,4 1.1 Source: Statistics 's "Labour Force Survey" 4

5 CANADA QUEBEC ONTARIO QUEBEC ONTARIO Unemployment Rate Level of employment 4,25 7,1 4,1 6,95 6,8 3,95 6,65 3,8 6,5 3,65 6,35 In % (left) (right) Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies CANADA QUEBEC ONTARIO CANADA QUEBEC ONTARIO Participation Rate Employment Rate In % In % Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies UNITED STATES CANADA QUEBEC ONTARIO CANADA Employment Index Evolution of employment February 21 = United States Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies QUEBEC ONTARIO Evolution of employment Evolution of employment Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies 5

6 TABLE 6 By province September SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA Newfoundland Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta British Columbia PREVIOUS MONTHS ACTUAL MONTHLY AVERAGES EMPLOYMENT 3 months 6 months Since 1 year 18,454,1 18,444,1 18,421,9 18,411, 18,44,33 18,41,333 18,321,925 18,134,4 1, 22,2 1, ,3 14,367 24,35 26, ,7 1.8* 22,9 22,4 219, 224,3 22,1 222,95 225, , 5 1 1, , , , , ,1-5.6* 73,1 73,8 73,5 74,5 73,467 73,9 73,67 71, , ,6 2.2* 446,9 444,6 45,2 448,3 447, , , ,8 2, , ,9-1, ,1.7* 352,6 351,9 352,4 352,2 352,3 352, , , ,5-1.* 4,224,4 4,232, 4,238, 4,233,3 4,231,467 4,22,467 4,25,6 4,17,9-7,6-6, 4,7 28,3-2,967 5,83 4,458 53,5 1.3* 7,172,1 7,137,4 7,16,3 7,8,8 7,138,6 7,18,417 7,82,383 7,2,6 34, , ,5-6,1 3,433 17,25 14, ,5 2.4* 643,9 649,4 649,1 644,3 647, ,9 64,25 632,2-5, ,8 5. 1, ,7 1.9* 568,1 568,1 568, 568,4 568,67 568, , 569, , ,4 -.2* 2,278,7 2,286,5 2,284,2 2,298,6 2,283,133 2,288,17 2,279,758 2,265,4-7,8 2, ,4 7, ,633-1,767 1, ,3.6* 2,473,3 2,48, 2,481,2 2,486,3 2,478,167 2,473,617 2,445,625 2,388,2-6, ,2-5, ,7-4,333 5, , ,1 3.6* Unempl.: Unemployement; * Variation in employment over a year. Source: Statistics 's "Labour Force Survey" 6

Employment Figures for September Down in Quebec, Up in Ontario

ECONOMIC NEWS Employment Figures for September Down in, Up in HIGHLIGHTS ff saw the highest job creation in in September, with new jobs. Part-time employment recorded the most gains. ff The unemployment