Quebec and Ontario: Employment Rises in March While the Unemployment Rate Treads Water

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Harriet Lester
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APRIL 6, 218 ECONOMIC NEWS and : Employment Rises in March While the Unemployment Rate Treads Water HIGHLIGHTS ff Both and boosted their employment ranks in March, with respective gains of 16, and

ff Job gains were for full-time positions in and (+28,6 and +16,3 respectively), wiping out the losses in part-time jobs.

The results for the quarter are a tad negative (-4,3). Three sectors recorded greater gains last month: construction (+8,8), healthcare and social assistance (+5,9) and educational services (+5,).

1 APRIL 6, 218 ECONOMIC NEWS and : Employment Rises in March While the Unemployment Rate Treads Water HIGHLIGHTS ff Both and boosted their employment ranks in March, with respective gains of 16, and 1,6. ff The unemployment rate failed to budge in both provinces. The rates were % in and % in, the same as in February. ff Job gains were for full-time positions in and (+28,6 and +16,3 respectively), wiping out the losses in part-time jobs. ff The employment rate in climbed to %, while the rate in remained unchanged, below s rate (6.9%). COMMENTS The March thaw created job gains, after two months of declines in. The results for the quarter are a tad negative (-4,3). Three sectors recorded greater gains last month: construction (+8,8), healthcare and social assistance (+5,9) and educational services (+5,). Employment growth in the last year has reached 2.%. In, March marked the second straight increase after the loss of 5,9 jobs in January. The gains accumulated are not enough to end the quarter on a high note, however. The result for the first quarter is -24,6. Two sectors stood out with strong showings in March: public administrations (+8,7) and construction (+6,7). Since March, employment growth of % has been recorded. #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA GRAPH The employment rate blasts past the pre-recession level in 28, but not in Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies threshold set before the last recession. has not reached the level that prevailed in 28. IMPLICATIONS The signals pointing to a tightening job market are multiplying. The low unemployment rate and the gradually climbing employment rate (especially in ) offer a glimpse of the hiring difficulties businesses will face in the next few months. Employment is expected to rise in 218 in both and, but not to the same spectacular extent as it did last year. Recruiting will be increasingly difficult, now that a growing share of the population, especially in, already has a job. Joëlle Noreau, Senior Economist We ve noted that s employment rate has been climbing swiftly since, while s growth rate is slower. has not only bridged the gap with, it has surpassed the François Dupuis, Vice-President and Chief Economist Hélène Bégin, Senior Economist Benoit P. Durocher, Senior Economist Francis Généreux, Senior Economist Joëlle Noreau, Senior Economist Desjardins, Economic Studies: or , ext desjardins.economics@desjardins.com desjardins.com/economics NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Desjardins Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Desjardins Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Desjardins Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. The data on prices or margins are provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time, based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. The opinions and forecasts contained herein are, unless otherwise indicated, those of the document s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Desjardins Group. Copyright 218, Desjardins Group. All rights reserved.

2 Reference Tables of Labour Market TABLE 1 Variation by sector March ,3 11,9 8,4 8, 53,5 2, 36,7 3,7 Information, culture and recreation Manufacturing Wholesale and retail trade Other services -8,7-8,3-5,9-2,9-11, 41,2 15, 25, Construction Health care and social assistance Educational services Transportation and warehousing 8,8 5,9 5, 3, 11,6 29,2 1,3 22, Manufacturing Business services Other services Forestry, fishing, mining and others -8,7-2,5-2,4-2,3 3,6 3 12,8 1,9 Public administration Construction Wholesale and retail trade Other services 8,7 6,7 3,5 3, -3,6 22, 4, 17,4 Health care and social assistance Information, culture and recreation Finance, insurance, real estate Educational services -9, -6,6-3,6-3, -26,4 1,2-2,3 12, GAINING SECTORS Construction Public administration Educational services Agriculture LOSING SECTORS Source: Statistics 's "Labour Force Survey" TABLE 2 By sector NUMBER OF JOBS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA March months Dec. (%) 18,64,8 4,279,6 7,199,2 16, 1,6-4,3-4,3-24,6-4,3-4,3-24,6 296,2 85, 129, Public sector employees 3,787,7 956,9 1,352,7 19,6 1,4 6,6 28,7 4,3 14,4 28,7 4,3 14,4 122,5 53, Private sector employees 11,951,7 2,765,5 4,721, -7, 13, -3,6-69,3 3,7-39, -69,3 3,7-39, 77, 21,6 71, ,865,5 557, 1,125,4 19,8 1,5 7,6 4-12,4 4-12,4 96,7 1, 26, Self-employed Source: Statistics 's "Labour Force Survey" APRIL 6, 218 2

3 TABLE 3 Recent trends SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA EMPLOYMENT LABOUR FORCE RATE (%) Numbers 3 months Numbers * Part. Empl. Unempl. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 218 Feb. 218 March ,38,6 18,325,4 18,358, 18,413, 18,436,2 18,458,8 18,471,4 18,499, 18,58,3 18,645, 18,557, 18,572,5 18,64,8 18,6 16,8 32,6 55, 23, 22,6 12,6 27,7 81,2 64,8-88, 15,4 9,8 57, 68, 14,5 11,8,8 58,3 62,9 121,5 173,7 58, -7,8-4,3 279,2 282, 322,9 358,8 392, 377,7 323,7 315,6 394,8 427,3 288,7 282,5 296,2 19,68,4 19,584,9 19,643,7 19,685,4 19,67,2 19,672,5 19,689,3 19,72,3 19,748,3 19,784,2 19,71,5 19,716,8 19,746,9 32, -23,5 58,8 41,7-15,2 2,3 16,8 31, 28, 35,9-73,7 6,3 3, March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 218 Feb. 218 March 218 4,194,6 4,193, 4,25,2 4,237,5 4,239,2 4,233,4 4,228,9 4,247,7 4,263,5 4,283,9 4,266,5 4,263,6 4,279,6 4,8-1,6 12,2 1,7-5,8-4,5 18,8 15,8 2,4-17,4-2,9 16, 4,8-3, 15,4 42,9 46,2 28,2-8,6 8,5 3, 55, 18,8-4,3 94,6 87,3 85,7 124, 126,4 9,6 53,2 69,4 82,2 94, 7,5 73,8 85, 4,476,3 4,48,3 4,471, 4,56,6 4,498,3 4,54,3 4,497,8 4,518, 4,57,8 4,51, 4,58,6 4,517,5 4,531, -6 4, -9,3 35,6-8,3 6, -6,5 2,2-1,2 2,3-1,5 8,9 13, March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 218 Feb. 218 March 218 7,69,6 7,75, 7,83,8 7,87,6 7,122,4 7,146,3 7,178,2 7,18,7 7,217,7 7,223,8 7,172,9 7,188,6 7,199,2-5,3 5,5 8,7 3,8 34,8 23,9 31,9 2,5 37, 6, -5,9 15,7 1,6 25,6 6,5 8,9 18, 47,3 62,5 9,6 58,3 71,4 45,6-7,8-29, -24,6 85, 86,8 85, 78,3 145,4 159,6 174,7 154,3 182,8 179,8 14,3 113,7 129,6 7,548,3 7,517,9 7,572, 7,573,4 7,579,3 7,565,6 7,69,8 7,625,3 7,638,6 7,648,3 7,593,5 7,63, 7,619,2 3,4-3,4 54,2 1,3 5,9-13,7 44,2 15,5 13,3 9,7-54,8 9,6 16, Part.: Participation; Empl.: Employment; Unempl.: Unemployment; * Variation over a month. Source: Statistics 's "Labour Force Survey" APRIL 6, 218 3

4 TABLE 4 Other labour market indicators LAST PUBLICATION PREVIOUS DATA Month Level - -3 months -6 months - Average weekly wages ($) Average hours worked in the manufacturing sector 1, , , , , Average weekly wages ($) Average hours worked in the manufacturing sector 1, , , , , Average weekly wages ($) Average hours worked in the manufacturing sector 1, , , , , SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA Source: Statistics 's "Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours" TABLE 5 Annual data ANNUAL AVERAGES Job growth (%) Unemployment rate (%) 17,438, 217, ,691, 253, ,82,2 111, ,946,6 144, ,79,9 133, ,416,4 336,5 1.9 Job growth (%) Unemployment rate (%) 4,5,9 3, ,6,8 54, ,59,7-1, ,97, 37, ,133, 36, ,223,3 9, Job growth (%) Unemployment rate (%) 6,72,6 44, ,823,4 12, ,877,9 54, ,923,2 45, ,999,6 76, ,128, 128,4 Source: Statistics 's "Labour Force Survey" APRIL 6, 218 4

5 QUEBEC ONTARIO CANADA QUEBEC ONTARIO Level of employment Participation Rate (left) (right) Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies CANADA QUEBEC ONTARIO CANADA QUEBEC ONTARIO Employment Rate Unemployment Rate Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies CANADA QUEBEC ONTARIO UNITED STATES CANADA Employment Index Evolution of employment February 21 = United States -5 - Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies QUEBEC ONTARIO Evolution of employment Evolution of employment Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies APRIL 6, 218 5

6 TABLE 6 By province March 218 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA Newfoundland Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta British Columbia PREVIOUS MONTHS ACTUAL MONTHLY AVERAGES EMPLOYMENT Feb Dec. 3 months 6 months Since 1 year 18,64,8 18,572,5 18,557, 18,645, 18,578,133 18,576,483 18,493,483 18,38,6 15,4-88, 64,8-13,433 22,233 24, ,2 1.6* 223,5 223,9 225,3 225, 224, ,5 223, , , , -.9* 75,2 75,4 74,9 74,8 75,167 74,517 74,233 73, ,2 3.* 455, 456,3 453,5 454,2 454, ,783 45, ,7-1, , , , ,3 1.2* 354, 355,8 35,7 356,5 353,5 354, , , -1,8 8. 5, -5, , * 4,279,6 4,263,6 4,266,5 4,283,9 4,269,9 4,267,467 4,245,167 4,194,6 16, -2,9-17,4 2, ,433 8,45 7,83 85, 2.* 7,199,2 7,188,6 7,172,9 7,223,8 7,186,9 7,197,15 7,156,358 7,69,6 1,6 15,7-5,9 6, -8,2 3,5 1,8 129,6 * 643, 642,2 642,7 646,3 642, , ,858 64, ,6 8-1, ,2.3* 57,7 566,5 569,4 568,3 568, , ,7 569,8 4,2-2,9 1, 4, * 2,325, 2,316,8 2,314,5 2,32,4 2,318,8 2,311,617 2,299,583 2,284,6 8,3 2, ,9 7. 2,4 7. 1, , , ,5 * 2,479,5 2,483,4 2,486,8 2,491,9 2,483,233 2,482,867 2,478,283 2,446,8-3, , , 4.8 3, , , , ,7 1.3* Unempl.: Unemployement; * Variation in employment over a year. Source: Statistics 's "Labour Force Survey" APRIL 6, 218 6

Quebec and Ontario create jobs in May

Quebec and Ontario create jobs in May ECONOMIC NEWS and create jobs in May #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA HIGHLIGHTS GRAPH ff created 14,9 new jobs in May. Job growth in and has been comparable for the past two years, despite the differences