Quebec Ontario: Strong Job Creation in November, With Unemployment at About 5.5%

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Eugenia West
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ECONOMIC NEWS : Strong Job Creation in November, With Unemployment at About % HIGHLIGHTS ff recorded a second consecutive monthly increase in employment, with 25,800 new jobs created in November.

ff The unemployment rate in was steady at %. #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA GRAPH Job vacancies in the private sector: sharp rise since Rate of job vacancies 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.

Overall, was an odd year, punctuated with several monthly declines and only three monthly increases, including that of November.

1 ECONOMIC NEWS : Strong Job Creation in November, With Unemployment at About % HIGHLIGHTS ff recorded a second consecutive monthly increase in employment, with 25,800 new jobs created in November. ff performed well, with 20,200 new jobs last month. ff and account for almost half of s job gains in November (+). ff s unemployment rate ticked up to %, compared to 5.2% in October. ff The unemployment rate in was steady at %. #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA GRAPH Job vacancies in the private sector: sharp rise since Rate of job vacancies Sources: Canadian Federation of Independent Business and Desjardins, Economic Studies COMMENTS s strong job creation in November brings a measure of relief. Overall, was an odd year, punctuated with several monthly declines and only three monthly increases, including that of November. There was some doubt as to whether the number of workers in could grow in a low unemployment environment. The potential labour pool of workers aged 15 to 64 has stagnated in recent years, while growth continues to slow down in and. According to the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB), close to 120,000 jobs remain unfilled in s private sector. At 4.1%, the rate of job vacancies in Q3 is in fact the highest in, followed by British Columbia and according to the CFIB. The ratio of jobs to fill in has also increased, which helped support strong employment advances throughout. s more favourable demographic backdrop undoubtedly played a big role in this development. IMPLICATIONS The strong job creation in is more in line with the province s economic growth right now. However, the data for November are not enough to fully dispel any doubts that could go back to recording more normal job growth. s labour market has a much different dynamic since the pool of workers keeps growing, making job creation much easier. We will see in the next few months if this trend is confirmed. Hélène Bégin, Senior Economist François Dupuis, Vice-President and Chief Economist Mathieu D Anjou, Deputy Chief Economist Hélène Bégin, Senior Economist Benoit P. Durocher, Senior Economist Francis Généreux, Senior Economist Joëlle Noreau, Senior Economist Desjardins, Economic Studies: or , ext desjardins.economics@desjardins.com desjardins.com/economics NOTE TO READERS: The letters k, M and B are used in texts and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. IMPORTANT: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Desjardins Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Desjardins Group in no way warrants that the information is accurate or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Desjardins Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. The data on prices or margins are provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time, based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. The opinions and forecasts contained herein are, unless otherwise indicated, those of the document s authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Desjardins Group. Copyright, Desjardins Group. All rights reserved.

2 Reference Tables of Labour Market TABLE 1 Variation by sector November Prof., scientific and technical services Health care and social assistance Construction Business services 26,000 18,700 14,800 14,600 25,500 56,900 14,700 59,900 Information, culture and recreation Finance, insurance, real estate Educational services Manufacturing -10,400-4,500-1, ,300-9,700 40,900-53,800 Prof., scientific and technical services Educational services Manufacturing Public administration 10,800 6,700 5,600 4,200 8,400 7,800-24,700 1,800 Wholesale and retail trade Other services Information, culture and recreation Health care and social assistance -6,300-3,700-1,600-1,300 7,700-1,800-6,200 10,800 Prof., scientific and technical services Other services Health care and social assistance Transportation and warehousing 19,000 9,600 7,000 6,400 5,200 13,200 4,500 43,600 Information, culture and recreation Finance, insurance, real estate Manufacturing Educational services -10,700-8,500-6,000-3,600-22,500 1,300-25,200 28,400 GAINING SECTORS LOSING SECTORS Source: Statistics 's "Labour Force Survey" TABLE 2 By sector NUMBER OF JOBS November 3 months Dec. (%) 18,799,100 4,279,900 7,283,700 25,800 20, ,600 26,600 58, ,000-4,000 59, ,800 66, Public sector employees 3,790, ,600 1,379,300 8,300 8,500-7,200-20,200-6,100-16,700 31,200-22,000 41,000 48,300-10,200 40, Private sector employees 12,142,100 2,783,400 4,768,400 78,600 21,800 21, ,700 43,100 63, ,100 21,600 8, ,300 23,000 8, ,866, ,900 1,136,000 7,200-4,500 5,700-6,000-10,300 12,000 1,700-3,600 10,700 24,200 3,600 16, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA Self-employed Source: Statistics 's "Labour Force Survey" 2

3 TABLE 3 Recent trends SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA EMPLOYMENT LABOUR FORCE RATE (%) Numbers 3 months Numbers * Part. Empl. Unempl. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Oct. Nov. 18,580,300 18,645,100 18,557,100 18,572,500 18,604,800 18,603,700 18,596,200 18,628,000 18,682,100 18,630,500 18,693,800 18,705,000 18,799,100 81,200 64,800-88,000 15,400 32,300-7,500 31,800 54,100-51,600 63,300 11, , ,700 58,000-7,800-40,300 46,600 23,700 23,200 78,400 34,300 65,800 22, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,800 19,748,300 19,784,200 19,710,500 19,716,800 19,746,900 19,758,700 19,747,800 19,823,400 19,842,500 19,825,700 19,864,900 19,846,700 19,923,900 28,000 35,900-73,700 6,300 30,100 11,800-10,900 75,600 19,100-16,800 39,200-18,200 77, Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Oct. Nov. 4,263,500 4,283,900 4,266,500 4,263,600 4,279,600 4,265,800 4,270,500 4,264,000 4,255,600 4,253,300 4,245,000 4,254,100 4,279,900 15,800 20,400-17,400-2,900 16,000-13,800 4,700-6,500-8,400-2,300-8,300 9,100 25,800 30,100 55,000 18, , ,900-15,600-10,200-17,200-19,000-1,500 26,600 82,200 70,500 73,800 85,000 72,800 65,300 26,500 19,900 16,100 6,400 4,507,800 4,510,100 4,508,600 4,517,500 4,531,100 4,508,300 4,510,900 4,507,200 4,505,700 4,504,500 4,484,300 4,488,500 4,523,500-10,200 2,300-1,500 8,900 13,600-22,800 2,600-3,700-1,500-1,200-20,200 4,200 35, Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Oct. Nov. 7,217,700 7,223,800 7,172,900 7,188,600 7,199,200 7,208,500 7,209,500 7,244,400 7,305,000 7,224,900 7,261,000 7,263,500 7,283,700 37,000 6,100-50,900 15,700 10,600 9,300 1,000 34,900 60,600-80,100 36,100 2,500 20,200 71,400 45,600-7,800-29,100-24,600 35,600 20,900 45,200 96,500 15,400 16,600-41,500 58, , , , , , , , , ,600 78,600 82,800 82,800 66,000 7,638,600 7,648,300 7,593,500 7,603,100 7,619,200 7,632,500 7,646,400 7,702,600 7,720,900 7,663,200 7,713,900 7,693,800 7,713,400 13,300 9,700-54,800 9,600 16,100 13,300 13,900 56,200 18,300-57,700 50,700-20,100 19, Part.: Participation; Empl.: Employment; Unempl.: Unemployment; * Variation over a month. Source: Statistics 's "Labour Force Survey" 3

4 TABLE 4 Other labour market indicators LAST PUBLICATION PREVIOUS DATA Month Level - -3 months -6 months - Average weekly wages ($) Average hours worked in the manufacturing sector 1, , , , , Average weekly wages ($) Average hours worked in the manufacturing sector 1, , , , Average weekly wages ($) Average hours worked in the manufacturing sector 1, , , , , SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA Source: Statistics 's "Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours" TABLE 5 Annual data ANNUAL AVERAGES Job growth (%) Unemployment rate (%) 17,438, , ,691, , ,802, , ,946, , ,079, , ,4 336, Job growth (%) Unemployment rate (%) 4,005,900 30,300 4,060,800 54, ,059, ,097,000 37, ,133,100 36, ,223,300 90, Job growth (%) Unemployment rate (%) 6,702,600 44, ,823, , ,877,900 54, ,923,200 45, ,999,600 76, ,128, , Source: Statistics 's "Labour Force Survey" 4

5 QUEBEC ONTARIO CANADA QUEBEC ONTARIO Level of employment Participation Rate 68 4,250 7,250 4,150 7,100 4,050 6,950 3,950 6,800 3,850 6,650 3,750 6,500 3, ,350 (left) (right) Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies CANADA QUEBEC ONTARIO CANADA QUEBEC ONTARIO Employment Rate Unemployment Rate Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies CANADA QUEBEC ONTARIO UNITED STATES CANADA Employment Index Evolution of employment February 2001 = United States Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies QUEBEC ONTARIO Evolution of employment Evolution of employment Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies -100 Sources: Statistics and Desjardins, Economic Studies 5

6 TABLE 6 By province November SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA Newfoundland Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta British Columbia PREVIOUS MONTHS ACTUAL MONTHLY AVERAGES EMPLOYMENT Oct. Aug. 3 months 6 months Since 1 year 18,799,100 18,705,000 18,693,800 18,630,500 18,732,633 18,689,750 18,643,158 18,580,300 11,200 63,300-51,600 56,200 33,817 18, , * 225, , , , , , , ,400-1, , * 76,700 76,900 76,400 76,200 76,667 76,483 75,833 74, , * 457, , , , , , , , ,300 1, , , , * 354, , , , , , , ,900 1,700-1, , , * 4,279,900 4,254,100 4,245,000 4,253,300 4,259,667 4,258,650 4,265,150 4,263,500 25,800 9, ,300-2,300 8,867 1,567 1, * 7,283,700 7,263,500 7,261,000 7,224,900 7,269,400 7,263,750 7,232,083 7,217,700 20,200 2,500 36,100-80,100 19,600 12,367 5,500 66,000 * 652, , , , , , , ,500 2,600 1, ,600 1,100 1, , * 579, , , , , , , ,900 5,500 2, , , ,267 2, , , * 2,358,900 2,335,200 2,337,900 2,340,800 2,344,000 2,337,600 2,329,325 2,300,000 23, , , , , , , , * 2,531,200 2,515,300 2,5 2,483,100 2,520,967 2,496,867 2,489,600 2,488,700 15, , ,900 16, , , , * Unempl.: Unemployement; * Variation in employment over a year. Source: Statistics 's "Labour Force Survey" 6

Quebec-Ontario: Demographics are shaping the labour market

Quebec-Ontario: Demographics are shaping the labour market MAY 5, 2017 ECONOMIC NEWS -: Demographics are shaping the labour market HIGHLIGHTS recorded a loss of 3,800 jobs in April, after an increase of 2,400 in the previous month. The unemployment rate climbed