The labour market heated up in Quebec and stabilized in Ontario in January
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- Arthur Booth
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1 QUEBEC ONTARIO The labour market heated up in Quebec and stabilized in Ontario in January February 6, 15 highlights According to the labour force survey, 16, jobs were created in Quebec in January. At 7.4%, the unemployment was at its lowest since November 13 (7.3%) Ontario Employment has improved somewhat in the last two years January 13 = January 13 = Labor force Employment In Ontario, employment stagnated with a gain of 1,3 jobs last month The Ontario unemployment still fell, going from 7.% to 6.9% from December to January. comments The year is starting on a positive note for Quebec with the addition of 16, jobs. However, these gains were mainly made in part-time work (+,) to the detriment of full-time jobs. Two sectors that benefited in particular were information, culture and recreation (+9,) and professional, scientific and technical services (+8,9). Ontario also saw the performance between full-time and part-time jobs shift in favour of part-time jobs (-23, and +24, respectively). Professional, scientific and technical services were up (+16,7), as was construction (+7,). This morning s results for Quebec are encouraging, but a cursory look at the last two years gives a more accu idea Quebec Labour market has lagged for two years January 13 = January 13 = Labor force Employment of the labour market. The graph to the left illusts the progression of Quebec s employment and labour force. We note that the labour market has been lagging since January 13 and that the data released by Statistics Canada this morning bucks the trend. For Ontario (graph above), the situation is a little better, even though the progress recorded has been quite modest for the last two years. January s results changed little in the overall picture, and the labour market will need to show more vitality for a longer period to change the current diagnosis. Implications: The optimism running through the United States is slow to reproduce in Quebec and Ontario. The concentration of manufacturing activity in central Canada (more than 7% of manufacturing employment) should pay off sooner or later on this side of the border. With the loonie making Canadian exports more advantageous, it would be surprising not to see the effects of the U.S. recovery ripple into Canada, even despite the productivity gains sought by Canadian companies. However, we must not bank on surging growth, especially considering weak labour force growth, the replacement of retired workers and the rising phenomenon of phased retirement. Joëlle Noreau Senior Economist François Dupuis or , ext. 245 Vice-President and Chief Economist desjardins.economics@desjardins.com Hélène Bégin Benoit P. Durocher Francis Généreux Joëlle Noreau Senior Economist Senior Economist Senior Economist Senior Economist Note to readers: The letters k, M and B are used in texts and tables to refer to thousands, millions and billions respectively. Important: This document is based on public information and may under no circumstances be used or construed as a commitment by Desjardins Group. While the information provided has been determined on the basis of data obtained from sources that are deemed to be reliable, Desjardins Group in no way warrants that the information is accu or complete. The document is provided solely for information purposes and does not constitute an offer or solicitation for purchase or sale. Desjardins Group takes no responsibility for the consequences of any decision whatsoever made on the basis of the data contained herein and does not hereby undertake to provide any advice, notably in the area of investment services. The data on prices or margins are provided for information purposes and may be modified at any time, based on such factors as market conditions. The past performances and projections expressed herein are no guarantee of future performance. The opinions and forecasts contained herein are, unless otherwise indicated, those of the document's authors and do not represent the opinions of any other person or the official position of Desjardins Group. Copyright 15, Desjardins Group. All rights reserved.
2 REFERENCE TABLES OF LABOUR MARKET February 6, 15 Variation by sector - January 15 GAINING Sectors Balance LOSING Sectors Balance 1 month 1 year 1 month 1 year CANADA Prof. and scient. services 22, 22, Others primaries -8,8-9 Manufacturing,7-17,9 Public administration -8,3 Health care 7,8 58, Transportation and warehousing -5,9 1, Educational services 6, 49, Trade -4, -9,7 QUEBEC Information, culture and recrea. 9, 2,8 Construction -, 2,8 Prof. and scient. services 8,9-6, Others services -4,9-34, Educational services 6, 8 Health care -2, -6, Fin., insurance and real estate 4, -5, Accomodation and food services -1,3 25, ONTARIO Prof. and scient. services 16,7,3 Information, culture and recrea. -11, -8,8 Construction 7,, Public administration -, -13,7 Educational services 6, 41,5 Others primaries -6, -2, Bus., build. and other supp. serv. 4, 15, Manufacturing -3,9-21, Source: LFS, Statistics Canada Labour Market January NUMBER OF JOB CREATION 15 EMPLOYEES in numbers January Last Last Since Last Last year Seasonally adjusted data 15 month 3 months december year in % Canada 17,886,9 35, 7,8 35, 127,.7% TOTAL JOBS Quebec 4,77, 16, 23, 16, -3, -.1% Ontario 6,886,3 1,3-43, 1,3 44,.6% Canada 3,554,7-6,7 19,8-6,7 19,.5% PUBLIC SECTOR EMPLOYEES Quebec 875,5 16,8-4, 16,8-6,9 -.8% Ontario 1,37,5-22,9 2,5-22,9 14, 1.1% Canada 11,566, 1, -45,5 1, 5,.4% PRIVATE SECTOR EMPLOYEES Quebec 2,,3-7,3 4,9-7,3 3,9.1% Ontario 4,491, 4, -,8 4, -2,5 -.1% Canada 2,766,3 41, 33, 41, 58,8 2.2% SELF-EMPLOYED Quebec 561, 6,5 22, 6,5 -.% Ontario 1,87,, 14,9, 32,7 3.1%
3 Labour Market - Recent trends Seasonally adjusted data Labour Variation Unemploy- Employment Job creation in last: Force over Participation Employment ment in numbers 1 month 3 months 12 months Numbers 1 month Canada ,759,3 29, 24, 135, 19,92, -15,7 66.2% 61.6% 7.% ,756, -3,3 13, 113,7 19,6,3 14, 66.2% 61.5% 7.1% ,776,5,5 46,3 167, 19,112, 5,8 66.2% 61.6% 7.% ,755,8 -,7-3,5 118,3 19,91,7 -, 66.% 61.4% 7.% ,761,5 5,7 5,5 7, 19,93, 1,9 66.% 61.4% 7.% ,771,3 9,8-5, 79,7 19,9, 16, 66.% 61.3% 7.% ,792, 21,3 36,8 1,7 19,141, 31,8 66.% 61.3% 7.% ,772,7-19,9 11, 56, 19,8, -33,.8% 61.2% 7.% ,816,9 44, 45, 91, 19,143,7 35,3.9% 61.3% 6.9% ,879, 62, 86,5 143,8 19,146, 2,5.9% 61.5% 6.6% ,862,8-16,3 9, 119,8 19,142, -4,.8% 61.4% 6.7% ,851,5-11,3 34, 121,3 19,127,7-14,3.7% 61.3% 6.7% ,886,9 35, 7,8 127, 19,148,,7.7% 61.4% 6.6% Quebec ,8, 9, 5,8 6, 4,411,3 8.1%.2% 7.5% ,49,5-3, -32, -15, 4,399,7-11,.9% 59.7% 8.% ,67,9 18, -2,8 21, 4,8, 8,.% 59.9% 7.7% ,42, -25,7-37,9-18,5 4,381,3-26,8.5% 59.5% 7.7% ,38, -3, -,9-22,9 4,384,7 3,.5% 59.4% 7.9% ,49,7 11, -18, -3, 4,5,,7.8% 59.5% 8.1% ,53,5 3,8 11,3 12,9 4,4,8 5,.8% 59.6% 8.1% ,55, 1,7 16, 25, 4,394, -16,7.5% 59.5% 7.7% ,59, 4, 9,9 12,3 4,3, 8,9.6% 59.6% 7.8% 14. 4,53,5-6, -,8 4,389, -13,.4% 59.5% 7.7% ,66,8 13,3 11, -15, 4,2, 13,.6% 59.6% 7.6% ,61, -5,7 1,5-9, 4,389,5-13,.3% 59.5% 7.5% ,77, 16, 23, -3, 4,,7 11,.5% 59.7% 7.4% Ontario ,841,9-5, -3, 71,7 7,391, -28,3.9% 61.% 7.4% ,861, 19, 5, 76, 7,417,3 25,7 66.1% 61.1% 7.5% ,8, 4, 17,8 83, 7,8,5-8,8 66.% 61.1% 7.3% ,876,3 11, 34, 85, 7,4,7 12, 66.% 61.2% 7.3% ,878,7 2, 17, 49, 7,413,8-6,9.9% 61.1% 7.2% ,853,5-25, -11,,7 7,396, -17,7.7%.8% 7.3% ,878,3 24,8 2, 49, 7,435, 39,5.9% 61.% 7.5% ,877, ,3 7,4,5-15,.7%.9% 7.3% ,88,9 3, 27, 31, 7,4,.7%.9% 7.3% 14. 6,929,7 48,8 51, 84, 7,43,3 9,7.7% 61.3% 6.7% ,896,7-33, 18,8, 7,419,7 -,.6% 61.% 7.% ,885, -11,7 4, 37,7 7,7, -12,5.4%.8% 7.% ,886,3 1,3-43, 44, 7,393,3-13,9.3%.8% 6.9% 2
4 Other Labour Market Indicators SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA Last publication Same month Month Level -1 MONTH -3 MONTHS -6 MONTHS -1 YEAR CANADA Average weekly wages ($) November 1, , ,5.29 1, ,26.21 Average hours worked in the manufacturing sector November QUEBEC Average weekly wages ($) November Average hours worked in the manufacturing sector November ONTARIO Average weekly wages ($) November 1, , , ,7.27 1,59. Average hours worked in the manufacturing sector November Annual Data Annual average CANADA TOTAL JOBS 16,727, 16,9,3 17,221, 17,438, 17,691, 17,82, JOB CREATION -282, 236,7 256,7 217, 253, 111, Job growth (%) -1.7% 1.4% 1.5% 1.3% 1.5%.6% 8.4% 8.1% 7.5% 7.3% 7.1% 6.9% QUEBEC TOTAL JOBS 3,854, 3,937,9 3,975, 4,5,9 4,,8 4,59,7 JOB CREATION -28,5 83,7 37,7 3,3 54,9-1, Job growth (%) -.7% 2.2% 1.%.8% 1.4% -.% 8.6% 8.% 7.9% 7.8% 7.6% 7.7% ONTARIO TOTAL JOBS 6,432,7 6,537,8 6,8, 6,72, 6,823,5 6,877,9 JOB CREATION -177, 5, 1, 44, 1,9 54, Job growth (%) -2.7% 1.6% 1.8%.7% 1.8%.8% 9.2% 8.7% 7.9% 7.9% 7.6% 7.3% 3
5 QUEBEC / ONTARIO Level of employment CANADA / QUEBEC / ONTARIO Rate 7, 4, 6,8 6, 4, 3,9 9 Canada Ontario Quebec 9 6, 3, , 3,7 6, 3, 7 7 5,8 Quebec (rigth) Ontario (left) 3, , 3, 5, 3, CANADA / QUEBEC / ONTARIO Participation Rate CANADA / QUEBEC / ONTARIO Employment Rate Canada Ontario Quebec 69 Canada Ontario Quebec UNITED STATES / CANADA / QUEBEC / ONTARIO Employment Index CANADA Evolution of employment Feb. 1 = 121 United States Quebec Feb. 1 = Ontario Canada QUEBEC Evolution of employment ONTARIO Evolution of employment
6 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA LABOUR MARKET BY PROVINCE January PREVIOUS MONTHS Monthly averages Employment months 6 months 12 months In the last year CANADA JOBS 17,886,9 17,851,5 17,862,8 17,879, 17,816,9 17,867,67 17,844,983 17,86,967 17,759,3 CREATION 35, -11,3-16,3 62, 44, 2, 15,717, , 6.6% 6.7% 6.7% 6.6% 6.9% 6.7% 6.8% 6.9%.7%* Newfoundland JOBS 237,9 237, 2, 238, 237,7 238, , , ,7 CREATION 8-2,9 2, ,8 11.4% 11.8% 11.% 12.% 12.4% 11.4% 11.9% 11.9% -1.6%* Prince Edward JOBS 74, 73, 74,3 74,5 74, 73,833 74,83 73,98 74, Island CREATION 1, -1, % 11.1%.4% 9.3% 9.6%.6%.%.4% -.1%* Nova Scotia JOBS 45,9 451, 451, 45,8 447, 451, 449, 447, ,5 CREATION , , 8.4% 8.4% 8.9% 8.7% 8.5% 8.6% 8.6% 8.8%.8%* New Brunswick JOBS 354, 351, 351,3 352, 354, 352, , , , CREATION 3, , 1, %.%.% 9.9%.1%.% 9.9% 9.9% -.2%* Quebec JOBS 4,77, 4,61, 4,66,8 4,53,5 4,59, 4,68,333 4,62,217 4,56,225 4,8, CREATION 16, -5,7 13,3-6, 4, 7,867 3, , 7.4% 7.5% 7.6% 7.7% 7.8% 7.5% 7.6% 7.8% -.1%* Ontario JOBS 6,886,3 6,885, 6,896,7 6,929,7 6,88,9 6,889,333 6,892,75 6,88,792 6,841,9 CREATION 1,3-11,7-33, 48,8 3, -14,467 1,333 3,7 44, 6.9% 7.% 7.% 6.7% 7.3% 7.% 7.% 7.2%.6%* Manitoba JOBS 635, 633,8 633,3 634,5 628,7 634,33 631,95 627, , CREATION 1, 5-1, 5,8 2, , ,8 6.% 5.4% 5.1% 5.% 5.5% 5.5% 5.4% 5.4% 1.6%* Saskatchewan JOBS 566, 575, 573,7 577, 575, 571, ,283 57, , CREATION -8, 1,3-3,9 2, 4, -3, % 3.7% 3.4% 3.6% 3.5% 3.9% 3.8% 3.8% -.1%* Alberta JOBS 2,313,9 2,3, 2,291,8 2,291, 2,284, 2,31,967 2,29,5 2,279,225 2,247, CREATION 13,7 8, 8 6,8 22,3 7,633 6,117 5,575 66,9 4.5% 4.7% 4.4% 4.4% 4.6% 4.5% 4.6% 4.7% 3.%* British JOBS 2,29, 2,283,9 2,283,8 2,277,5 2,274,8 2,286, 2,279,967 2,278,925 2,279,7 Columbia CREATION 6,7 6,3 2,7 5, 4,367 2,25 98,9 Source: Statistics Canada, Labour force Survey 5.6% 5.5% 5.7% 6.1% 6.3% 5.6% 5.9% 6.%.5%* * Change in employment in the last year 5
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