Alberta Labour Market Outlook

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Alyson Reeves
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1 Labour Market Outlook Released March 2012

2 Factors Likely to Affect Alberta s Labour Market Global economic and financial uncertainty created by the Eurozone debt crisis Economic growth in emerging markets Pace of economic growth in the United States (US) Value of the Canadian dollar Price of oil and natural gas Household debt and its impact on consumer spending Babyboomers beginning to retire Interprovincial and international net migration

3 Components of Population Growth, Alberta's Population Growth by Component, * Natural Growth Net Interprovincial Net International 50,000 Number of People 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, * Year *Figures for 2011 are for the first three quarters only Note: Net International includes Net Non-Permanent Residents Data Source: Statistics Canada. Prepared by: Alberta Finance, Economics, Demography and Public Finance, December 20, 2011

4 Working Age Population (WAP) by Age Group 30% 2001 WAP: 2,364,900 Per cent (%) of WAP 25% 20% 15% 10% 20.1% 18.9% 18.9% 16.9% 22.1% 17.9% 18.5% 17.8% 2011 WAP: 3,006, % 12.8% 12.1% 10.2% 5% 0% Age Group

5 Canada and Provinces Labour Force Participation Rates, 2011 Participation Rate (%) 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 60.2% 68.1% Canada: 66.8% 63.7% 62.8% 65.2% 66.8% 69.3% 69.2% 73.7% 65.0% 10% 0% NL PE NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC Province

6 Participation Rate by Age Group and Sex Labour force participation rate (%) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 73.1% 68.2% % 92.0% 80.8% 82.6% 42.5% 25.4% 78.8% 65.8% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 73.2% 66.9% % 92.6% 83.5% 80.6% 53.5% 39.2% Male Female 79.8% 67.3% 0% years years years 55+ years All Ages Age Group (15+ years) 0% years years years 55+ years All Ages (15+ years) Age Group

Labour Force Statistics by Economic Region, 2011 Athabasca Grande Prairie: Working Age Population: 190,600 Labour Force: 142,600 Unemployment Rate: 5.

7 Labour Force Statistics by Economic Region, 2011 Athabasca Grande Prairie: Working Age Population: 190,600 Labour Force: 142,600 Unemployment Rate: 5.6% Jasper Banff Rocky Mountain House: Working Age Population: 71,900 Labour Force: 55,000 Unemployment Rate: 3.5% Red Deer: Working Age Population: 154,300 Labour Force: 114,600 Unemployment Rate: 5.8% Calgary: Working Age Population: 1,110,900 Labour Force: 826,400 Unemployment Rate: 5.7% Wood Buffalo Cold Lake: Working Age Population: 103,000 Labour Force: 83,200 Unemployment Rate: 5.2% Edmonton: Working Age Population: 1,000,700 Labour Force: 732,700 Unemployment Rate: 5.5% Camrose Drumheller: Working Age Population: 156,000 Labour Force: 112,300 Unemployment Rate: 4.5% Lethbridge Medicine Hat: Working Age Population: 219,200 Labour Force: 148,400 Unemployment Rate: 5.5%

8 Employment by Industry, 2011 Retail Trade Health Care and Social Assistance Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Accommodation and Food Services Educational Services Transportation and Warehousing Other Services Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing Wholesale Trade Public Administration Information, Culture and Recreation Services-Producing sector: 1,519.2 Business, Building and Other Support Services 73.2 Construction Mining and Oil and Gas Extraction Manufacturing Agriculture Utilities Forestry and Logging with Support Activities Goods-Producing sector: Number Employed (000's)

9 Change in Employment by Industry Change in Employment by Industry, (000's) 2011 (000's) % Change Total, all industries 2, , % Goods-Producing Sector % Agriculture % Forestry and Logging with Support Activities % Mining and Oil and Gas Extraction % Utilities % Construction % Manufacturing % Services-Producing Sector 1, , % Wholesale Trade % Retail Trade % Transportation and Warehousing % Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing % Professional, Scientific and Technical Services % Business, Building and Other Support Services % Educational Services % Health Care and Social Assistance % Information, Culture and Recreation % Accommodation and Food Services % Other Services % Public Administration %

10 Employment by Occupation, 2011 Sales and service Trades, transport and equipment operators Business, finance and administrative Natural and applied sciences and related Management Social science, education, government and religion Health Unique to primary industry Unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities 69.4 Art, culture, recreation and sport 47.7 Employed (000's)

11 Change in Employment by Occupation Change in Employment by Occupation, (000's) 2011 (000's) % Change Total, all occupations 2, , % Management occupations % Business, finance and administrative occupations % Natural and applied sciences and related occupations % Health occupations % Occupations in social science, education, government service and religion % Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport % Sales and service occupations % Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations % Occupations unique to primary industry % Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities %

12 Historical Unemployment, Unemployment is declining after reaching a recessionary high of 142,100 in Unemployment (000's) Year

13 Canada and Provinces Unemployment Rate, % 12% 12.7% Unemployment Rate (%) 10% 8% 6% 4% 11.3% 8.8% 9.5% 7.8% 7.8% Canada = 7.4% 5.4% 5.0% 5.5% 7.5% 2% 0% NL PE NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC Province

14 s Unemployment Rate, The unemployment rate in 2011 was 2.1 percentage points lower than its recessionary peak of 7.5% in April Unemployment Rate (%) 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Unemployment rate, Alberta, % 6.5% 5.3% 5.5% 5.1% 4.7% 4.7% 4.0% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% Year

15 Unemployment Rate by Industry, 2011 Business, Building and Other Support Services Information, Culture and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services Retail Trade Other Services Transportation and Warehousing Educational Services Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Public Administration Health Care and Social Assistance Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing Wholesale Trade 3.3% 3.2% 3.0% 2.9% 2.5% 2.3% 2.2% 1.6% 4.8% 5.7% 5.4% 6.6% Services-Producing Sector: 3.6% Construction Manufacturing Mining and Oil and Gas Extraction Utilities Forestry and Logging with Support Activities Agriculture N/A* N/A* N/A* 2.8% 3.7% 6.4% Unemployment Rate (%) Goods-Producing Sector: 4.2% * N/A denotes data suppressed by Statistics Canada

16 Unemployment Rate by Occupation, 2011 Trades, transport and equipment operators 5.4% Sales and service 5.1% Unique to primary industry 4.4% Art, culture, recreation and sport 4.0% Unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities 3.3% Social science, education, government and religion 2.8% Business, finance and administrative 2.7% Natural and applied sciences and related 2.4% Health 1.7% Management 1.6% Unemployment Rate (%)

17 Average Hourly Wages, Alberta s average hourly wage rate increased by 42 cents in 2011 to $ Alberta has had the highest average hourly wage rate in Canada since Average Hourly Wage ($) Year

18 Average Hourly Wage by Industry, 2011 Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Public Administration Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Transportation and Warehousing Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing Information, Culture and Recreation Other Services Business, Building and Other Support Services Trade (Wholesale and Retail) Accommodation and Food Services $13.82 $19.75 $19.46 $23.96 $22.30 $22.23 $26.51 $25.83 $30.16 $32.56 $32.49 Services-Producing sector: $24.00 Utilities Forestry, Fishing, Mining and Oil and Gas Construction Manufacturing Agriculture $17.43 $25.43 $28.44 $36.20 $35.34 Goods-Producing sector: $ Average Hourly Wage ($)

19 Average Hourly Wage by Occupation, 2011 Management Natural and applied sciences and related $38.35 $37.42 Health Social science, education, government and religion Unique to primary industry Trades, transport and equipment operators Unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities Art, culture, recreation and sport Business, finance and administrative $30.63 $30.41 $27.30 $26.47 $23.94 $23.90 $23.42 Sales and service $ Average Hourly Wage ($)

20 Employment, From 2012 to 2015, the number of employed Albertans is expected to increase by 206,300. Employment (000's) : 1,630, : 2,053, : 2,094,100 Forecasted 2015: 2,300, Year Data Sources: Historical Data: Statistics Canada, 2011 Labour Force Survey Forecasted: Alberta Regional Occupational Demand Outlook,

21 Average Employment Growth by Industry, Business, Building and Other Support Services Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Accommodation and Food Services Information, Culture and Recreation Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Other Services Health Care and Social Assistance Transportation and Warehousing Educational Services Public Administration Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing 2.8% 2.5% 1.7% 2.4% 2.1% 2.7% 1.6% 2.5% 2.1% 1.5% 1.3% 1.9% Services-Producing sector: 2.1% Utilities Construction Forestry and Logging with Support Activities Mining and Oil and Gas Extraction Manufacturing Agriculture 0.8% 1.1% 1.7% 2.2% 2.4% 4.0% Goods-Producing sector: 2.0% Average Employment Growth (%) Data Source: Alberta Modified COPS Outlook , Industry Employment Outlook

22 Occupational Demand and Supply Outlook, Shortages Overall Occupational Demand and Supply Outlook for Alberta, Demand (000s) 2,016 2,071 2,123 2,176 2,232 2,294 2,360 2,415 2,472 2,522 2,568 2,623 Supply (000s) 2,157 2,196 2,241 2,288 2,337 2,392 2,449 2,496 2,543 2,580 2,611 2,650 Annual Shortage* 15,814 6,397 6,997 6,746 7,279 8,638 8,100 9,909 12,419 15,145 16,834 Cumulative Shortage 15,814 22,211 29,208 35,954 43,233 51,871 59,971 69,880 82,299 97, ,278 * Annual shortage = (Demand [year t+1] Demand [year t]) (Supply [year t+1] Supply [year t]) Data Source: Alberta s Occupational Demand and Supply Outlook

23 Total Employment Growth by Skill Level, Percentage of Total 5 Year Growth Employment Growth (%) 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 18.2% 35.5% 27.5% 10.5% 8.3% 0% University Degree College or Apprenticeship Secondary School and/or Occupation- Specific Training On-the-Job Training Management Required Skill Level Data Source: Alberta Occupational Demand Outlook, , Occupation by Skill

24 Outlook, Educational Attainment by Sex Proportions of Female and Male Educational Attainment, 2011 and % Females, 2011 Males, 2011 Females, 2021 Males, % 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 20.3% 21.4% 16.2% 16.5% 26.5% 26.7% 21.6% 27.2% 27.7% 29.7% 30.0% 30.1% 25.5% 22.3% 32.2% 26.3% 0% Less Than High School High School College and Trade University Degree Data Source: Alberta s Occupational Supply Outlook Model Note: For more information, please refer to Alberta s Occupational Supply Outlook Model: Education and Skills

25 Assumptions Oil prices are expected to continue being elevated due to continued demand from emerging markets and a rebounding US economy. This will lead to increased oilsands production. Labour supply pressures in the oilsands sector are expected to increase. Consumer spending is expected to continue to grow owing to the historically low interest rates. Net interprovincial migration to Alberta is expected to pick up due to increasing job opportunities and higher wages. The unemployment rate is expected to continue to decline this year.

26 For More Information on Departmental Initiatives and Web Sites of Interest... Alberta Human Services (Labour Market Information): Alberta Learning Information Service: Canada-Alberta JOBS (Job Order Bank Service): Statistics Canada: Alberta-Canada (Immigration Information)

ALBERTA LABOUR FORCE PROFILES Aboriginal People in the Labour Force Alberta Labour Force Profiles

ALBERTA LABOUR FORCE PROFILES Aboriginal People in the Labour Force 2009 Alberta Labour Force Profiles Aboriginal People 2011 Highlights 1. Population of More than 60.0% of the working age population (WAP)