Market Study Report for the Municipality of Sioux Lookout. Prepared by:

Transcription

1 Market Study Report for the Municipality of Sioux Lookout Prepared by: March 31, 2011

2 Market Study Report For the Municipality of Sioux Lookout Prepared by: McSweeney & Associates 900 Greenbank Road Suite 201 Ottawa Ontario CANADA K2J 1S8 Tel: (613) Or Fax: (613) Or WEBSITE:

3 Table of Contents 4 Statistical Overview of Sioux Lookout Demographic Analysis Population and Age Structure Profile Sioux Lookout Incomes Education Post-Secondary Field of Study Migration to Sioux Lookout Knowledge of Official Languages Dwelling Characteristics Labour Force Analysis Key Indicators Labour Force by Industry Labour Force by Occupation Commuting Patterns Net Import and Export of Labour Force Economic Base Analysis Employment Profile Location Quotient Analysis Location Quotients Analysis by Sector Dominant Sub-Sectors Location Quotients Analysis by Industry Level Location Quotients Compared to Benchmarks Shift-Share Analysis Employer Structure Analysis Business Sector Analysis Growth in Business Numbers Growth in Business Concentrations Growth in Business Concentrations per Capita Growth in Business Concentrations by Sector Business Pattern Analysis Economic Development Trends Analysis Site Selection Factors Economic Forecast Appendix A: Data Tables... 44

4 List of Tables and Figures Table 1: Statistical Overview of Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, Table 2: Statistical Overview of Changes for Sioux Lookout... 2 Table 3: Population Change from 1996 to 2006, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario... 4 Table 4: Dwelling Characteristics, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, 2001, 2006 and Table 5: Where the Sioux Lookout Resident Labour Force Works, Table 6: Place of Residence for Persons Working in Sioux Lookout, Table 7: Net Import-Export of Labour Force for Sioux Lookout, Table 8: Employment Sub-sectors with High LQ, Sioux Lookout vs. Kenora, Table 9: Shift Share Analysis for Sioux Lookout Jobs by Sector, Table 10: Percentage Population by Age, Sioux Lookout, 2001, 2006 and Table 11: Percentage Population by Age, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, Table 12: Income Levels with % Change, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, 2000, 2005 and Table 13: Total Income Levels, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, Table 14: Total Income Levels, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, 2000, 2005 and Table 15: Family Income Levels, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, Table 16: Household Income Levels, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, Table 17: Highest Level of Schooling, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, Table 18: Education Attainment, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, Table 19: Education Attainment, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, Table 20: Post-secondary Qualifications by Major Field of Study 2010, Sioux Lookout vs. ON Table 21: Mobility Status, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, Table 22: Knowledge of Official Language, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, Table 23: Key Labour Force Indicators, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, Table 24: Labour Force by Industry, Sioux Lookout, Table 25: Labour Force by Industry, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, Table 26: Labour Force by Occupation, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, Table 27: Number of Business by Sector, Sioux Lookout, Table 28: Percentage of Local Business, Sioux Lookout, Table 29: Business Concentration per Capita, Sioux Lookout, Table 30: Business Concentration Sector Mix, Sioux Lookout, Table 31: Top 15 Sub-Sectors by Number of Employers for Sioux Lookout, June Table 32: Top 15 Industries by Number of Employers, Sioux Lookout, June Table 33: % Change of Total Number of Employers, SL vs. Ontario, June 2003 to June Table 34: Canadian and Ontario Economic Indicators Outlook Table 35: Global Export Forecast by Sector (% Growth) Table 36: Ontario Merchandise Export Outlook Table 37: Canadian Industrial Outlook GDP by Industry Table 38: GDP by Industry Ontario Table 39: Canada and Ontario Employment Outlook by Industry Q1/

5 Figure 1: Percentage Population by Age, Sioux Lookout, 2001, 2006, and Figure 2: Percentage Population by Age, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, Figure 3: Total Median & Average Income, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, 2000, 2005 and Figure 4: Household Median & Average Income, Sioux Lookout & ON, 2000, 2005 and Figure 5: Total Income, Sioux Lookout, 2000, 2005 and Figure 6: Total Income, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, Figure 7: Education Attainment Breakdown for Sioux Lookout, Figure 8: Education Attainment, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, Figure 9: Post-Secondary Field of Study, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, Figure 10: Mobility Status Breakdown, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, 1 Year Ago Figure 11: Mobility Status Breakdown, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, 5 Years Ago Figure 12: Percentage of Official Language, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, Figure 13: Average Dwelling Value, Sioux Lookout vs. ON, 2001, 2006 and Figure 14: Labour Force Indicators, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, 2001, 2006 and Figure 15: Unemployment Rate, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, 2001, 2006 and Figure 16: Labour Force by Industry, Sioux Lookout, Figure 17: Labour Force by Industry, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, Figure 18: Labour Force by Occupation, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, Figure 19: Number of Jobs by Sector for Sioux Lookout, Figure 20: Jobs Distribution, Sioux Lookout vs. Kenora, Figure 21: Location Quotients by Employment Sectors, Sioux Lookout, Figure 22: Employment Sub-sectors with High Location Quotients, Sioux Lookout, Figure 23: Sioux Lookout Employment Industries with High Location Quotients, Figure 24: Location Quotients Compared to Kenora, Ontario, Canada, by Sectors, Figure 25: Sioux Lookout Job Change by Sector, Figure 26: Employment Shift-Share Analysis by Sector, Sioux Lookout, Figure 27: Site Selection Factors Figure 28: Site Selection Factors Combined Rating* of 2010 Factors... 41

6 1 Statistical Overview of Sioux Lookout The following table provides a profile of the Municipality of Sioux Lookout using 2010 estimates of statistical data. These estimates are prepared based on 2006 Census data. Table 1: Statistical Overview of Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, Topic Demographic Variable Sioux Lookout Ontario Total population 5,423 13,293,008 Population Projected population ,345 14,211,555 Projected population ,307 15,196,416 Total population 15 years and over 4,354 11,045,903 In the labour force 2 3,443 7,458,212 Labour Force Participation rate 3 (%) Employment rate 4 (%) Unemployment rate 5 (%) Average total per capita income (2009) ($) 43,761 42,841 Income ($) Median total per capita income (2009) ($) 39,370 30,822 Average household income (2009) ($) 90,065 85,814 Median household income (2009) ($) 79,076 67,246 Households Dwelling Total number of private households 2,012 4,980,115 Average number of persons in private households Total number of occupied private dwellings 2,012 4,980,115 Average value of dwelling ($) 210, ,018 Source: McSweeney & Associates from Manifold Data Mining Inc. Superdemographics The content of the report is derived from Manifold s proprietary postal code information. No confidential information about an individual, household, organization or business has been obtained from Statistics Canada. 2 Labour force - Refers to persons who were either employed or unemployed. 3 Participation rate - Refers to the labour force expressed as a percentage of the population 15 years and over excluding institutional residents. 4 Employment rate - Refers to the number of persons employed expressed as a percentage of the total population 15 years and over, excluding institutional residents. 5 Unemployment rate - Refers to the unemployed expressed as a percentage of the labour force. McSweeney & Associates 1 March 31, 2011

7 The following table provides an overview of statistical changes in Sioux Lookout between 2001 and Table 2: Statistical Overview of Changes for Sioux Lookout Topic Population Demographic Variable Sioux Lookout Total Population 5,336 5,183 Children & Youth (0-19) Youth Adult (20-44) Segments 45 and up Jobs 6 Percentage Change Total population 15 years and over Labour Force Income ($) Households Dwelling Value Decreased Decreased Increased 17.1% Compared to Ontario (ON) Decreased while increased in ON Segment % greater than ON average Segment % greater than ON average Segment % smaller than ON average Increased at a significantly faster rate than ON 4,045 4,065 Increased slower than ON In the labour force 2,870 3,190 Increased faster than ON Participation rate (%) Employment rate (%) Unemployment rate (%) Average total per capita income ($) Median total per capita income ($) Average household income ($) Median household income ($) Total number of private households Average number of persons in private households Average value of dwelling ($) 32,678 38,971 25,594 34,325 65,238 79,374 55,587 71,289 Grew significantly faster than ON Grew significantly faster than ON Grew faster but significantly lower than ON Increased at a faster rate than ON Increased significantly faster than ON Increased at a faster rate than ON Increased at a faster rate than ON 1,925 1,925 Stable while increased in ON , ,898 Source: McSweeney & Associates from Statistics Canada 2001 and 2006 Census data. 7 Stable at a slightly faster rate than ON Increased at a significantly slower pace than ON 6 Throughout this report, the word job is used as a commonly accepted term to refer to the employed labour force declaring a usual place of employment within Canada (or Ontario or Sioux Lookout as the case may be). It excludes those working in their home, working outside of Canada, or not having a usual place of employment that they report to at the beginning of a work shift. 7 Census data 2001: Statistics Canada, 2001 Electronic Profile, 95F0495XCB01001-Ont, Profile for Canada, Provinces, Territories, Census Divisions and Census Subdivisions, 2001 Census. Census data 2006: Statistics Canada, 2006 Electronic Profile, XCB , Profile for Canada, Provinces, Territories, Census Divisions and Census Subdivisions, 2006 Census. McSweeney & Associates 2 March 31, 2011

8 2 Demographic Analysis Sioux Lookout Market Study Highlights In 2010, the Municipality of Sioux Lookout had a younger population than Ontario. Between 2000 and 2009, all average and median incomes (total, family, household) in Sioux Lookout rose, and are higher than those of Ontario. The largest segment of total income earners was the $60,000+ income level. The percentage of Sioux Lookout residents who have a college, CEGEP or other non-university certificate or diploma is higher than the Provincial percentage in The percentage of residents who studied Business, management and public administration is the largest compared to other fields of study, and is higher than in Ontario. Residents in Sioux Lookout were less likely to have moved than Ontario residents; and a smaller percentage of movers are from outside of the country in comparison to Ontario. Over 90% of residents in Sioux Lookout speak English only. Less than 10% of residents are bilingual (English and French). The average value of dwellings in Sioux Lookout increased from $151,399 in 2001 to $210,749 in These values are lower than the provincial average. McSweeney & Associates 3 March 31, 2011

9 2.1 Population and Age Structure Profile Table 3, derived from 2001 and 2006 Census data, illustrates the population change in Sioux Lookout from 1996 to 2006 in comparison to Ontario. According to the census data, the population in Sioux Lookout decreased between 2001 and 2006, while it increased in Ontario. Table 3: Population Change from 1996 to 2006, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario Sioux Lookout Population Count 5,165 5,336 5,183 % Change from Previous Census Ontario Population Count 10,753,573 11,410,046 12,160,282 % Change from Previous Census Source: McSweeney & Associates from Statistics Canada Census data 2001, 2006 Figure 1 and Table 10 in the Appendix represent the changing demographics of Sioux Lookout between 2001 and The following are some key observations: The fastest growing age segments are between years of age. The age segments declined sharply as a percentage of the total population. The 0-14 age segments also declined as a percentage of the total population. Figure 1: Percentage Population by Age, Sioux Lookout, 2001, 2006, and Sioux Lookout 2001 % Sioux Lookout 2006 % Sioux Lookout 2010 % 8.0 Percentage Age Group Source: McSweeney & Associates from Statistics Canada Census data 2001, 2006 and Manifold Data Mining Inc. Superdemographics 2010 McSweeney & Associates 4 March 31, 2011

10 Table 11 in the Appendix, and Figure 2 (below) indicate that in 2010: The age segments are the largest of all age segments in both Sioux Lookout and Ontario. Sioux Lookout s population (as a percentage of the total population) aged 55+ years is significantly less than that of Ontario. Sioux Lookout s population (as a percentage of the total population) aged less than 49 years is larger than that of Ontario. Overall, Sioux Lookout s age profile indicates a younger population than that of Ontario. Figure 2: Percentage Population by Age, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, 2010 Percentage Sioux Lookout 2010 % ON 2010 % Age Group Source: McSweeney & Associates from Manifold Data Mining Inc. Superdemographics 2010 McSweeney & Associates 5 March 31, 2011

11 2.2 Sioux Lookout Incomes Sioux Lookout Market Study Based upon Figures 3 to 6, as well as Tables 12 to 16 in the Appendix, the following observations 8 can be made with respect to incomes: All average and median incomes (total, family, household) in Sioux Lookout increased between 2000 and The Sioux Lookout median total income and median household income rose more quickly than Ontario between 2001 and And it is now significantly higher than Ontario. In 2009, Sioux Lookout had a higher percentage of residents with incomes over $45,000 than did Ontario. With respect to total income changes from 2000 to 2009, the percentage of the population making more than $60,000 was the largest income segment and has been increasing since Figure 3: Total Median & Average Income, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, 2000, 2005 and ,000 45,000 40,000 Sioux Lookout Average total income Sioux Lookout Median total income Ontario Average total income Ontario Median total income Incomes $ 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15, Year Source: McSweeney & Associates from Statistics Canada Census data 2001 (2000 incomes) and 2006 (2005 incomes) and Manifold Data Mining Inc. Superdemographics 2010 (2009 incomes) 8 Please note that Census data (2001 and 2006) is not exactly comparable to Superdemographics data (2009) estimates. McSweeney & Associates 6 March 31, 2011

12 Figure 4: Household Median & Average Income, Sioux Lookout & ON, 2000, 2005 and ,000 90,000 80,000 Sioux Lookout Average household income Sioux Lookout Median household income Ontario Average household income Ontario Median household income Incomes $ 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30, Year Source: McSweeney & Associates from Statistics Canada Census data 2001 (2000 incomes) and 2006 (2005 incomes) and Manifold Data Mining Inc. Superdemographics 2010 (2009 incomes) Figure 5: Total Income, Sioux Lookout, 2000, 2005 and 2009 Percentage Sioux Lookout 2000 % Sioux Lookout 2005 % Sioux Lookout 2009 % Income levels Source: McSweeney & Associates from Statistics Canada Census data 2001 (2000 incomes) and 2006 (2005 incomes) and Manifold Data Mining Inc. Superdemographics 2010 (2009 incomes). McSweeney & Associates 7 March 31, 2011

13 Figure 6: Total Income, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, 2009 Percentage Sioux Lookout 2009 % ON 2009 % Income Levels Source: McSweeney & Associates from Statistics Canada Census data 2001 (2000 incomes) and 2006 (2005 incomes) and Manifold Data Mining Inc. Superdemographics 2010 (2009 incomes). McSweeney & Associates 8 March 31, 2011

14 2.3 Education Figures 7 and 8, and Tables 17 to 19 in the Appendix, outline the education levels obtained by Sioux Lookout s residents (aged 25-64) for 2001, 2006 and 2010 as compared to Ontario averages. 9 The following figure provides a visual breakdown of the educational attainment levels of the Sioux Lookout population aged in Definitions may be found in the footnotes. Figure 7: Education Attainment Breakdown for Sioux Lookout, Total population* (100%) Certificate, diploma or degree (79.6%) No certificate, diploma or degree (20.4%) High school certificate or equivalent (19.4%) Apprentice ship or trades certificate or diploma (10.5%) College, CEGEP or other nonuniversity certificate or diploma (28.9%) University certificate, diploma or degree (20.9%) University certificate or diploma below bachelor level University certificate or diploma (17.2%) (3.7%) Source: McSweeney & Associates from Manifold Data Mining Inc. Superdemographics *Population aged 25 to 64 in Sioux Lookout Census data is not directly comparable to 2006 Census data. 10 'Highest certificate, diploma or degree' refers to the highest certificate, diploma or degree completed based on a hierarchy which is generally related to the amount of time spent 'in-class.' For postsecondary completers, a university education is considered to be a higher level of schooling than a college education, while a college education is considered to be a higher level of education than in the trades. Although some trades requirements may take as long or longer to complete than a given college or university program, the majority of time is spent in on-the-job paid training and less time is spent in the classroom. 'High school certificate or equivalent' includes persons who have graduated from a secondary school or equivalent. Excludes persons with a postsecondary certificate, diploma or degree. Examples of postsecondary institutions include community colleges, institutes of technology, CEGEPs, private trade schools, private business colleges, schools of nursing and universities. 'College, CEGEP or other non-university certificate or diploma' replaces the category 'Other non-university certificate or diploma' used in previous censuses. This category includes accreditation by non-degree-granting institutions such as community colleges, CEGEPs, private business colleges and technical institutes. McSweeney & Associates 9 March 31, 2011

15 Based on the following table, it can be concluded that: The percentage of Sioux Lookout residents who have a college, CEGEP or other nonuniversity certificate or diploma is higher than the Provincial percentage in The percentage of Sioux Lookout residents who have a university certificate or diploma is lower than Ontario in Figure 8: Education Attainment, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, 2010 University certificate or degree University certificate or diploma below bachelor level 2010 Sioux Lookout % 2010 Ontario % Education Attainment Level University certificate, diploma or degree College, CEGEP or other non-university certificate or diploma Apprenticeship or trades certificate or diploma High school certificate or equivalent Certificate, diploma or degree No certificate, diploma or degree Source: McSweeney & Associates from Manifold Data Mining Inc. Superdemographics Percentage McSweeney & Associates 10 March 31, 2011

16 2.4 Post-Secondary Field of Study Sioux Lookout Market Study For 2010 post-secondary qualifications of persons aged 25-64, the following observation can be made from Figure 9 and Table 20 (in the Appendix) 11 : The largest field of study was in the Business, management and public administration field. The Architecture, engineering, and related technologies and was also a large field of study but not as large as in Ontario. The Health, parks, recreation and fitness field of study was significantly higher than in Ontario. Figure 9: Post-Secondary Field of Study, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, Educational, recreational and counselling services Fine and applied arts Humanities and related fields Sioux Lookout 2010 % Ontario 2010 % Social and behavioural sciences and law Field of Study Business, management and public administration Physical and life sciences and technologies Mathematics, computer and information sciences Architecture, engineering, and related technologies Agriculture, natural resources and conservation Health, parks, recreation and fitness Personal, protective and transportation services Other fields of study Percentage Source: McSweeney & Associates from Manifold Data Mining Inc. Superdemographics Changes in census variables do not allow a direct comparison of 2001 and 2006 post-secondary fields of study. 12 'Field of study' is defined as the main discipline or subject of learning. It is collected for the highest certificate, diploma or degree above the high school or secondary school level. McSweeney & Associates 11 March 31, 2011

17 2.5 Migration to Sioux Lookout Sioux Lookout Market Study The mobility (refers to whether or not people lived in the same dwelling unit either one year or five years ago) of Sioux Lookout residents in 2010 can be seen in Figures 10 to 11, and Table 21 (in the Appendix). The following figure is a visual breakdown of the mobility status in Sioux Lookout compared to Ontario (2010 estimates data). Definitions may be found in the footnotes. Figure 10: Mobility Status Breakdown, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, 1 Year Ago 13 Source: McSweeney & Associates from Manifold Data Mining Inc. Superdemographics 2010 In 2010, the percentage of Sioux Lookout residents that had moved within the previous year (16.8% movers) was more than the percentage of movers in Ontario. People moving to Sioux Lookout were more likely to be relocating from other parts of Ontario as opposed to moving from outside of the province. 13 Non-movers are persons who were living at the same address as the one at which they resided one year earlier. Movers are persons who were living at a different address from the one at which they resided one year earlier. Non-migrants are movers who were living at a different address, but in the same census subdivision (CSD) as the one they lived in one year earlier. Migrants are movers who were residing in a different CSD one year earlier (internal migrants) or who were living outside Canada one year earlier (external migrants). Intraprovincial migrants are movers who were living in a different CSD from the one at which they resided one year earlier, in the same province. Interprovincial migrants are movers who were living in a different CSD from the one at which they resided one year earlier, in a different province. McSweeney & Associates 12 March 31, 2011

18 Figure 11: Mobility Status Breakdown, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, 5 Years Ago Source: McSweeney & Associates from Manifold Data Mining Inc. Superdemographics Figure 11 compares the mobility of Sioux Lookout residents five years ago to that of Ontario. The percentage of Sioux Lookout residents that had moved within the past five years was still larger than the percentage of movers in Ontario. People moving to Sioux Lookout were still more likely to be relocating from other parts of Ontario as opposed to moving from outside of the province. McSweeney & Associates 13 March 31, 2011

19 2.6 Knowledge of Official Languages Sioux Lookout Market Study Figure 12 and Table 22 (in the Appendix) illustrate the official languages spoken in Sioux Lookout compared to the averages for Ontario in 2010: Over 90% of residents in Sioux Lookout speak English only. Less than 10% of residents are bilingual (English and French) in Sioux Lookout. This percentage is lower than in Ontario. Figure 12: Percentage of Official Language, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, 2010 Percentage Sioux Lookout 2010 % Ontario 2010 % English only French only English and French Neither English nor French Official Languages Source: McSweeney & Associates from Manifold Data Mining Inc. Superdemographics 2010 In addition to official languages, over 10% of residents in Sioux Lookout are knowledgeable in aboriginal languages: Cree (1.9% of residents); Ojibway (4.5% of residents); Oji-Cree (3.1% of residents). McSweeney & Associates 14 March 31, 2011

20 2.7 Dwelling Characteristics Sioux Lookout Market Study Table 4 and Figure 13 present dwelling characteristics in Sioux Lookout for 2001, 2006 and as compared to Ontario: The total number of dwellings in Sioux Lookout increased from 1,925 in 2001 to 2,012 in The percentages of owned and rented dwellings in Sioux Lookout were stable during the period between 2001 and The average value of dwellings in Sioux Lookout increased from $151,399 in 2001 to $210,749 in 2010, and is lower than Ontario. Table 4: Dwelling Characteristics, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, 2001, 2006 and Sioux Lookout Ontario Sioux Lookout Ontario Sioux Lookout Ontario Total number of dwellings 15 1,925 4,219,410 1,925 4,555,030 2,012 4,980,115 % of owned dwellings 70% 80% 70% 80% 70% 70% % of rented dwellings 30% 20% 30% 20% 30% 30% Average value of dwelling 16 ($) 151, , , , , ,018 Source: McSweeney & Associates from Statistics Canada Census data 2001, 2006 and Manifold Data Mining Inc. Superdemographics 2010 Figure 13: Average Dwelling Value, Sioux Lookout vs. ON, 2001, 2006 and , ,000 Sioux Lookout ON Average value of dwelling ($) 300, , , , ,000 50, Year Source: McSweeney & Associates from Statistics Canada Census data 2001, 2006 and Manifold Data Mining Inc. Superdemographics Manifold Data Mining Inc. Superdemographics 2010 (based on the self-reported values of the 2006 census adjusted for inflation). 15 Dwelling refers to a set of living quarters in which a person or a group of persons resides or could reside, and includes all forms of rental units as well as single family homes. 16 Dwelling value is not the same as average home value. McSweeney & Associates 15 March 31, 2011

21 3 Labour Force Analysis Sioux Lookout Market Study Highlights In 2010, the employment rate in Sioux Lookout (79.1%) was significantly higher than Ontario (63.5%); the unemployment rate was significantly lower than Ontario (3.0% vs. 6.0%). Compared to Ontario, a higher percentage of the labour force in Sioux Lookout worked in the following industries: o Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting o Transportation and warehousing o Health care and social assistance o Accommodation and food services o Educational services o Public administration. The number of jobs in Sioux Lookout exceeded the number of labour force participants, thus making Sioux Lookout a net importer of at least 140 employees from other communities (such as Dryden and Thunder Bay). Almost all of Sioux Lookout s labour force worked in Sioux Lookout. Sioux Lookout residents who commute to work outside of Sioux Lookout work in the following industries: o Mining and oil and gas extraction o Utilities o Transportation and warehousing o Real estate and rental and leasing o Arts, entertainment and recreation o Other services (except public administration). This section examines the characteristics of the labour force that resides in Sioux Lookout, regardless of work location. McSweeney & Associates 16 March 31, 2011

22 3.1 Key Indicators Figures 14 and 15, along with Table 23 in the Appendix, provide a comparison of key labour force indicators for Sioux Lookout and Ontario from 2001 to 2010 (2010 estimates). The following observations can be made 17 : In 2001, 2006, and 2010, the labour force participation rates and employment rates were significantly higher in Sioux Lookout compared to the Provincial rate. Since 2001, the unemployment rate in Sioux Lookout has decreased and is significantly lower than the Provincial rate. Figure 14: Labour Force Indicators, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, 2001, 2006 and Percentage Sioux Lookout Participation rate Sioux Lookout Employment rate Ontario Participation rate Ontario Employment rate Year Source: McSweeney & Associates from Statistics Canada Census data 2001, 2006 and Manifold Data Mining Inc. Superdemographics Participation rate %=labour force/total population 15+ Employment rate %= employed/total population 15+ Unemployment rate %=unemployed/labour force McSweeney & Associates 17 March 31, 2011

23 Figure 15: Unemployment Rate, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, 2001, 2006 and Sioux Lookout Unemployment rate Ontario Unemployment rate 6.0 Percentage Year Source: McSweeney & Associates from Statistics Canada Census data 2001, 2006 and Manifold Data Mining Inc. Superdemographics Labour Force by Industry Figure 16 and Table 24 (in the Appendix) indicate that the experienced labour force in the Health care and social assistance industry had the largest percentage increase between 2001 and 2010, with an estimated increase of 140 jobs. Figure 16: Labour Force by Industry, Sioux Lookout, Percentage Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting Mining and oil and gas extraction Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Sioux Lookout 2001 % Sioux Lookout 2006 % Sioux Lookout 2010 % Transportation and warehousing Information and cultural industries Finance and insurance Real estate and rental and leasing Professional, scientific and technical services Management of companies and enterprises Administrative and support, waste management and Educational services Health care and social assistance Arts, entertainment and recreation Accommodation and food services Other services (except public administration) Public administration Industry Source: McSweeney & Associates from Statistics Canada Census data 2001, 2006 and Manifold Data Mining Inc. Superdemographics 2010 McSweeney & Associates 18 March 31, 2011

24 Figure 17: Labour Force by Industry, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, Sioux Lookout% 20.0 Ontario % Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting Mining and oil and gas extraction Utilities Construction Percentage Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation and warehousing Information and cultural industries Finance and insurance Real estate and rental and leasing Professional, scientific and technical services Management of companies and enterprises Admin. and support, waste mgmt and remediation services Educational services Health care and social assistance Arts, entertainment and recreation Accommodation and food services Other services (except public administration) Public administration Industry Source: McSweeney & Associates from Manifold Data Mining s Superdemographics Figure 17 and Table 25 (in the Appendix) demonstrate the estimated percentage of the labour force by industry in 2010 relative to Ontario. In 2010, a larger percentage of Sioux Lookout s resident labour force worked in the following industries as compared to Ontario: Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting Transportation and warehousing Health care and social assistance Accommodation and food services Educational services Public administration. A smaller percentage of Sioux Lookout s resident labour force, as compared to Ontario, worked in: Construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Finance and insurance Information and cultural industries Professional, scientific and technical services Admin. And support, waste management and remediation services Other services (except public administration). McSweeney & Associates 19 March 31, 2011

25 3.3 Labour Force by Occupation Sioux Lookout Market Study Figure 18 and Table 26 (in the Appendix) compare the estimated percentages of the labour force in Sioux Lookout and Ontario by occupation for In comparison to Ontario, Sioux Lookout has larger percentages of its labour force working in: Trades, transport and equipment operators and related Social science, education, government service and religion Health. In contrast, Sioux Lookout has smaller percentages of its labour force, as compared to Ontario, working in: Management Unique to primary industry Business, finance and administration Arts, culture, recreation and sport Unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities. Figure 18: Labour Force by Occupation, Sioux Lookout vs. Ontario, Sioux Lookout % Ontario % Percentage Management Business, finance and administration Natural and applied sciences and related Health Social science, education, government service and religion Art, culture, recreation and sport Occupations Sales and service Trades, transport and equipment operators and related Unique to primary industry Unique to processing, manufacturing and utilities Source: McSweeney & Associates Manifold Data Mining Inc. Superdemographics McSweeney & Associates 20 March 31, 2011

26 3.4 Commuting Patterns Sioux Lookout Market Study The following two tables provide information on persons reporting a usual place of work other than in their home or outside of Canada, and reveal the following regarding labour force commuting patterns with respect to Sioux Lookout in : Almost all the Sioux Lookout resident labour force worked in Sioux Lookout. The majority of the Sioux Lookout resident labour force who worked outside of Sioux Lookout commuted to work in Thunder Bay. The largest number of non-resident labour force commuting to work in Sioux Lookout travelled from Dryden and Thunder Bay. 0.9% of the workers living in Sioux Lookout had a usual place of work outside of Sioux Lookout. 10.5% of workers declaring a usual place of work in Sioux Lookout lived outside of Sioux Lookout. Table 5: Where the Sioux Lookout Resident Labour Force Works, 2006 Place of Work Total Male Female Sioux Lookout 2,655 1,280 1,375 Thunder Bay Total Resident Labour Force 2,680 1,290 1,390 Total resident labour force with a usual place of work outside of Sioux Lookout Percent of residents declaring a place of work outside of Sioux Lookout 0.9% 0.8% 1.1% Source: McSweeney & Associates, Statistic Canada, Commuting Flow Census Subdivisions: Sex (3) for the Employed Labour Force 15 Years and Over Having a Usual Place of Work of Census Subdivisions, Flows Greater than or Equal to 20, 2006 Census - 20% Sample Data &PRID=0&PTYPE=88971,97154&S=1&SHOWALL=0&SUB=0&Temporal=2006&THEME=76&VID=0&VNAMEE=&VNAMEF= Table 6: Place of Residence for Persons Working in Sioux Lookout, 2006 Place of Residence Total Male Female Sioux Lookout 2,655 1,280 1,375 Dryden Thunder Bay Lac Seul Kenora, Unorganized Ignace Total workforce working in Sioux Lookout 2,965 1,475 1,505 Total non-resident workforce commuting to work to Sioux Lookout Percent of workers (non-residents) commuting to work to Sioux Lookout 10.5% 13.2% 8.6% Source: McSweeney & Associates, Statistic Canada, Commuting Flow Census Subdivisions: Sex (3) for the Employed Labour Force 15 Years and Over Having a Usual Place of Work of Census Subdivisions, Flows Greater than or Equal to 20, 2006 Census - 20% Sample Data. =90656&PRID=0&PTYPE=88971,97154&S=1&SHOWALL=0&SUB=0&Temporal=2006&THEME=76&VID=0&VNAMEE=&VNAMEF= 18 Only 2006 year commuting data is available. McSweeney & Associates 21 March 31, 2011

27 3.5 Net Import and Export of Labour Force The next table highlights the industry sectors in which there is a net export or import of labour. The net export/import calculation is simply the number of jobs in each Sioux Lookout industry minus the number of Sioux Lookout residents working in that particular industry. It is important to note that the export/import numbers indicated under-represent the actual numbers of employees, as this calculation assumes all of the employed resident labour force in that industry works in Sioux Lookout. In 2006, the size of the Sioux Lookout the number of jobs (3,190) slightly exceeds resident labour force (3,050) available in almost all industry sectors in Sioux Lookout, indicating that Sioux Lookout was a net importer of at least 140 employees. The size of the Sioux Lookout resident labour force exceeds the jobs available in the following industry sectors in Sioux Lookout: Mining and oil and gas extraction; Utilities, Transportation and warehousing, Real estate and rental and leasing, Arts, entertainment and recreation, and Other services (except public administration). Table 7: Net Import-Export of Labour Force for Sioux Lookout, 2006 Sectors (NAICS classification) Jobs in Sioux Lookout Employed Resident Labour Force Sioux Lookout Net export (-) or import (+) of labour Total - Industry - North American Industry Classification System ,190 3, Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting Mining and oil and gas extraction Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation and warehousing Information and cultural industries Finance and insurance Real estate and rental and leasing Professional, scientific and technical services Management of companies and enterprises Administrative and support, waste management and remediation services Educational services Health care and social assistance Arts, entertainment and recreation Accommodation and food services Other services (except public administration) Public administration Source: McSweeney & Associates from Statistics Canada Census data 2006; Analysis support: Rural Development Division, Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs. McSweeney & Associates 22 March 31, 2011

28 4 Economic Base Analysis Sioux Lookout Market Study Highlights Employment in Sioux Lookout is highly concentrated in the following sectors: o Health care and social assistance o Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting o Transportation and warehousing o Public administration. In Sioux Lookout, at the sub-sector level, the Forestry and logging sub-sector and Aboriginal public administration sub-sector dominate employment levels. Sioux Lookout experienced the largest job increases (145 jobs) between 2001 and 2006 in the Health care and social assistance sector as well as in manufacturing (115 jobs) and public administration (70 jobs). This section uses the number of jobs in Sioux Lookout as input for the economic base analysis. More specifically, by jobs we are referring to the employed labour force declaring a usual place of work in Sioux Lookout (outside of the home), versus labour force by place of residence. The employed labour force therefore includes Sioux Lookout residents and non-residents. McSweeney & Associates 23 March 31, 2011

29 4.1 Employment Profile Sioux Lookout Market Study The Statistics Canada North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) of classifying industries is used for this report. The largest groupings or aggregations of industries categories are called Sectors, which are broken down into Sub-sectors, which are then further broken down into Industries. An example of this breakdown follows: Sector Level Sub-sector Level Industry Level Manufacturing industries 311 Food manufacturing 3111 Animal food manufacturing The following figure illustrates that there were 3,190 jobs in Sioux Lookout in With 780 jobs in 2006, the Health care and social assistance sector was the largest industry sector employer in Sioux Lookout. Figure 19: Number of Jobs by Sector for Sioux Lookout, Number of Jobs Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting Mining and oil and gas extraction Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation and warehousing Information and cultural industries Finance and insurance Real estate and rental and leasing Professional, scientific and technical services Jobs in Sioux Lookout by Industry Sector Management of companies and enterprises Administrative/Waste Mgmt/Remediation Services Educational services Health care and social assistance Arts, entertainment and recreation Accommodation and food services Other services (except public administration) Public administration Source: McSweeney & Associates from Statistics Canada Census data 2006; Analysis support: Rural Development Division, Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs. McSweeney & Associates 24 March 31, 2011

30 The following figure presents the percentage of jobs in each industry sector for Sioux Lookout and Kenora District. Sioux Lookout, when compared to Kenora District, has a higher percentage of jobs in the following sectors: Manufacturing Transportation and warehousing Health care and social assistance. Figure 20: Jobs Distribution, Sioux Lookout vs. Kenora District, 2006 Percentage 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% % Sioux Lookout % Kenora 0% Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting Mining and oil and gas extraction Construction Manufacturing Retail trade Transportation and warehousing Source: McSweeney & Associates from Statistics Canada Census data 2006; Analysis support: Rural Development Division, Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs. Finance and insurance Sectors Real estate and rental and leasing Administrative/Waste Mgmt/Remediation Services Educational services Health care and social assistance Accommodation and food services Other services (except public administration) Public administration McSweeney & Associates 25 March 31, 2011

31 4.2 Location Quotient Analysis Sioux Lookout Market Study An economic base analysis is an analysis of how the local economy functions. It does not provide solutions to economic problems, but instead provides useful information required for decision-making about economic strategies. The economic base analysis helps determine which economic activities bring money in, and where money might be leaking out. While the actual flow of money in and out of Sioux Lookout would be the most accurate means of describing the economic base of the area, however data or statistics for this form of cash flow analysis are not available. As such, a surrogate for cash flow is required, and the most common substitute is employment which uses an economic base analysis tool called Location Quotient Analysis. This method compares the level of employment concentration (or specialization) in Sioux Lookout to the level of employment concentration in one or more benchmark areas. In other words, does Sioux Lookout have proportionately more or less employees in specific industries than the benchmark area? Benchmarking employment in Sioux Lookout to Ontario and Canada provides information on: The extent to which Sioux Lookout is producing all of the goods or services required for consumption in Sioux Lookout (this potentially identifies opportunities to replace the imports with locally provided goods and services). Whether the Sioux Lookout economy is producing goods or services in excess of quantities required for local consumption, indicating a high degree of development and specialization (or industry concentration) that results from the goods or services being consumed by non-residents. The location quotient method is a first cut analysis that requires interpretation of the results, but it will point to the economic sectors that deserve a more thorough and in-depth analysis and street-level validation. A location quotient of between 0.75 and 1.25 generally indicates the local economy is self-sufficient in that industry. A 1.0 would indicate the exact same proportion of that industry s jobs to all Sioux Lookout jobs as that of the benchmark, in this case, Canada. A location quotient of less than 0.75 usually indicates a lack of self-sufficiency, requiring an importation of goods or services, as there is insufficient local employment to produce the required goods/services. A location quotient of greater than 1.25 usually indicates the industry has more local employment than is required to sustain the needs of Sioux Lookout, and is therefore exporting its goods or services, and is bringing money into the community. McSweeney & Associates 26 March 31, 2011

32 4.2.1 Location Quotients Analysis by Sector The next figure illustrates the location quotients for Sioux Lookout by employment sector compared to Ontario and Canada as benchmarks. Figure 21: Location Quotients by Employment Sectors, Sioux Lookout, Sioux Lookout LQ Ontario Sioux Lookout LQ Canada Location Quotients Normal Range Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting Mining and oil and gas extraction Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation and warehousing Information and cultural industries Finance and insurance Sector Real estate and rental and leasing Professional, scientific and technical services Management of companies and enterprises Administrative/Waste Mgmt/Remediation Services Educational services Health care and social assistance Arts, entertainment and recreation Accommodation and food services Other services (except public administration) Public administration Source: McSweeney & Associates from Statistics Canada Census data 2006; Analysis support: Rural Development Division, Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs. Sector location quotients for Sioux Lookout vary when compared to Ontario and Canada, however most sectors are below the average. Employment in the Health care and social assistance sector is the most highly concentrated sector in Sioux Lookout. Other highly concentrated employment sectors in Sioux Lookout, compared to Ontario and Canada are: Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting Transportation and warehousing Public administration. McSweeney & Associates 27 March 31, 2011

33 4.2.2 Dominant Sub-Sectors Sioux Lookout Market Study The following figure illustrates the sub-sectors that have a significant number of jobs (percentage of jobs exceeding 0.5%) and a significant concentration in Sioux Lookout (location quotient exceeding 1.5 vs. Canada). Figure 22: Employment Sub-sectors with High Location Quotients, Sioux Lookout, Sioux Lookout LQ Ontario Sioux Lookout LQ Canada Location Quetients Normal Range 0.0 Forestry and logging Support activities for agriculture and forestry Wood product manufacturing Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers Health and personal care stores Air transportation Rail transportation Broadcasting (except Internet) Ambulatory health care services Hospitals Social assistance Accommodation services Sub-Sector Provincial and territorial public administration Aboriginal public administration Source: McSweeney & Associates from Statistics Canada Census data 2006; Analysis support: Rural Development Division, Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs In terms of jobs at the sub-sector level, the Forestry and logging sub-sector (80 jobs) and Aboriginal public administration sub-sector (80 jobs) dominate employment levels. Other subsectors with high concentrations compared to Ontario and Canada are as follows: Support activities for agriculture and forestry (20 jobs) Wood product manufacturing (325 jobs) Air transportation (140 jobs) Rail transportation (45 jobs). McSweeney & Associates 28 March 31, 2011

34 4.2.3 Location Quotients Analysis by Industry Level The figure below demonstrates the employment figures by industries that have a significant number of jobs (percentage of jobs exceeding 1.5%) and a significant concentration in Sioux Lookout (location quotient exceeding 1.5 vs. Canada). (LQ concentration indicated in boxes) Figure 23: Sioux Lookout Employment Industries with High Location Quotients, 2006 Sioux Lookout LQ Ontario Sioux Lookout LQ Canada 7.0 Location Quetients Normal Range Logging Sawmills and wood preservation Building material and supplies dealers Health and personal care stores Scheduled air transportation Non-scheduled air transportation Elementary and secondary schools Out-patient care centres Industry Hospitals (6221 to 6223) Individual and family services Traveller accommodation Provincial and territorial public administration (9121 to 9129) Aboriginal public administration Source: McSweeney & Associates from Statistics Canada Census data 2006; Analysis support: Rural Development Division, Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs In terms of employment at the industry level, the following industries have high concentrations: Logging Sawmills and wood preservation Scheduled air transportation Non-schedule air transportation Individual and family services Aboriginal public administration. McSweeney & Associates 29 March 31, 2011

35 4.2.4 Location Quotients Compared to Benchmarks The next figure presents the location quotients by employment sectors for Sioux Lookout in comparison to Kenora District, Ontario and Canada as benchmarks. This analysis compares the employment structure of Sioux Lookout to the employment structure of Kenora, Ontario and Canada. This analysis points out any particular employment concentrations of Sioux Lookout compared to Kenora District that might not be evident when compared to the Ontario or Canadian economies. Figure 24: Location Quotients Compared to Kenora District, Ontario, Canada, by Sectors, Sioux Lookout LQ Kenora Sioux Lookout LQ Ontario Sioux Lookout LQ Canada 3.0 Location Quotients Normal Range 0.0 Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting Mining and oil and gas extraction Construction Manufacturing Retail trade Transportation and warehousing Finance and insurance Sector Real estate and rental and leasing Administrative/Waste Mgmt/Remediation Services Educational services Health care and social assistance Accommodation and food services Other services (except public administration) Public administration Source: McSweeney & Associates from Statistics Canada Census data 2006; Analysis support: Rural Development Division, Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs In comparison to Kenora (as a benchmark area), employment in most sectors is below the normal range. Employment in the Health care and social assistance sector is the most highly concentrated in Sioux Lookout compared to Kenora. Other higher concentrations in comparison to Kenora include: Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting Transportation and warehousing Public Administration. McSweeney & Associates 30 March 31, 2011

36 An examination of the comparison of Sioux Lookout s employment structure to that of Kenora District at the more detailed level, or sub-sector level, follows. The following table illustrates the sub-sectors that have a significant number of jobs (percentage of jobs exceeding 0.5%) and also having a significant concentration in Sioux Lookout and Kenora District compared to Canada as the benchmark (location quotient exceeding 1.5 to Canada). In the Sioux Lookout column, subsector concentrations that are not found in Kenora District are in bold. In other words, the concentration is at least somewhat unique in Sioux Lookout when compared to Kenora District. Table 8: Employment Sub-sectors with High LQ, Sioux Lookout vs. Kenora District, 2006 Sioux Lookout Kenora District Forestry and logging Wood product manufacturing Support activities for agriculture and Air transportation forestry Rail transportation Wood product manufacturing Social assistance Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers Health and personal care stores Air transportation Rail transportation Broadcasting (except Internet) Ambulatory health care services Hospitals Social assistance Accommodation services Provincial and territorial public administration Aboriginal public administration Source: McSweeney & Associates from Statistics Canada Census data 2006; Analysis support: Rural Development Division, Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs Compared to Kenora, Sioux Lookout has higher concentrations in the following dominated subsectors (bold in the table): Forestry and logging Support activities for agriculture and forestry Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers Health and personal care stores Broadcasting (except Internet) Ambulatory health care services Hospitals Accommodation services Provincial and territorial public administration Aboriginal public administration. McSweeney & Associates 31 March 31, 2011

37 4.3 Shift-Share Analysis Sioux Lookout Market Study Shift-share analysis compares local employment growth/decline of Sioux Lookout jobs by industry to the employment growth/decline of that industry within Canada, as well as the job growth overall for Canada. More specifically, this analytical tool examines the job growth/decline by attributing growth, stability, or decline in particular industries over time to three distinct forces: Canadian economic growth: regional job growth/decline that is attributable to growth, stability, or decline of the entire Canadian economy. Industry growth: regional job growth/decline that is attributable to the growth, stability, or decline of that particular economic activity in the Canadian economy (with the economic growth component removed). Regional economic growth: regional job growth/decline that is attributable to the regional economy because it is growing/declining more or less quickly than jobs in the larger economy (with the Canadian economic and industry growth components removed). This tool, when correctly interpreted, provides greater descriptive power than the location quotient method. It has been applied to all NAICS Industry Sectors using place of work statistics. Shift-share analysis allows examination of changes through time (trends) versus the static snapshot of location quotients. To begin, the change in absolute job numbers between 2001 and 2006 by sector will be examined. The following chart illustrates changes in job numbers by sector in Sioux Lookout between 2001 and Figure 25: Sioux Lookout Job Change by Sector, Jobs in 2001 Jobs in Number of Jobs Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting Mining and oil and gas extraction Construction Manufacturing Sector Retail trade Transportation and warehousing Finance and insurance Real estate and rental and leasing Administrative/Waste Mgmt/Remediation Services Educational services Health care and social assistance Accommodation and food services Other services (except public administration) Public administration Source: McSweeney & Associates from Statistics Canada Census data 2001, 2006; Analysis support: Rural Development Division, Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs. McSweeney & Associates 32 March 31, 2011

38 The above figure points out that the largest increase in jobs between 2001 and 2006 was in the Health care and social assistance sector, which increased from 635 to 780 jobs. The largest decline in jobs was in the Accommodation and food services sector, which decreased from 280 in 2001 to 250 in Table 9: Shift Share Analysis for Sioux Lookout Jobs by Sector, Sectors (NAICS classification) Growth / Decline % Growth / Decline Canada % Growth / Decline National Economic Effect Industry Growth Effect Regional / Local Effect Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting % -2.44% Mining and oil and gas extraction 0 n/a 39.8% 0 0 n/a Construction % 22.0% Manufacturing % -8.1% Retail trade % 10.9% Transportation and warehousing % 5.8% Finance and insurance % 8.4% Real estate and rental and leasing % 15.2% Administrative/Waste Mgmt/Remediation Services % 21.4% Educational services % 12.5% Health care and social assistance % 14.6% Accommodation and food services % 8.5% Other services (except public administration) 5 9.1% 8.7% Public administration % 8.2% Source: McSweeney & Associates from Statistics Canada Census data 2001, 2006; Analysis support: Rural Development Division, Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs The shift-share analysis table above explains job growth in Sioux Lookout for each industry sector by attributing absolute changes in job numbers to national, industry and regional growth effects. An example of how to interpret the table follows: The Health care and social assistance sector experienced the largest increase of 145 jobs between 2001 and This increase may be attributed to the following: o Overall job growth in the national economy would have resulted in the growth of 54 jobs; o Jobs in the Health care and social assistance industry in Canada increased during this period as well, therefore job increases (39) can be contributed to the industry s overall positive growth; o The Health care and social assistance job increase in Sioux Lookout was 145, of which 54 can be attributed to the national economic growth and 39 attributed to the growth in the Health care and social assistance industry therefore the local effect was another 52 jobs.. With a loss of 30 jobs between 2001 and 2006, the Accommodation and food services sector experienced the largest decrease between 2001 and This loss may be attributed as follows: McSweeney & Associates 33 March 31, 2011

39 o Overall job growth in the national economy would have resulted in a growth of 24 Accommodation and food services jobs; o Jobs in the Accommodation and food services industry in Canada had no change; o There were more jobs lost in Sioux Lookout (-30) than can be attributed to the growth in the national economy (24 jobs). Therefore, Sioux Lookout suffered a job loss (-54) in excess of what can be attributed to national growth. The following figure graphically depicts the preceding table for Sioux Lookout: Figure 26: Employment Shift-Share Analysis by Sector, Sioux Lookout, % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting Mining and oil and gas extraction Construction Manufacturing Retail trade Transportation and warehousing Source: McSweeney & Associates from Statistics Canada Census data 2001, 2006; Analysis support: Rural Development Division, Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs The shift-share analysis reveals the following: The following sectors were growing at a more rapid rate than can be explained by national and industry growths combined, and were an area of strength between 2001 and o The Real estate and rental and leasing o Construction o Manufacturing o Finance and insurance o Public administration Employment in the following sectors in Sioux Lookout suffered local weakness after considering both national and industry growth: o Administrative/Waste management/remediation services Finance and insurance Real estate and rental and leasing Growth / Decline attributable to Local Economic Growth Growth / Decline attributable to Industry Growth Growth / Decline attributable to National Economic Growth Administrative/Waste Mgmt/Remediation Services Educational services Health care and social assistance Accommodation and food services Other services (except public administration) Public administration McSweeney & Associates 34 March 31, 2011

40 o o Accommodation and food services Transportation and warehousing. McSweeney & Associates 35 March 31, 2011

41 5 Employer Structure Analysis Highlights Sioux Lookout s local businesses grew strongly from 2003 to 2007 in the following sectors: o Real estate and rental and leasing o Management of companies and enterprises. Between 2003 and 2007, the top two sectors with the highest concentration of businesses in Sioux Lookout were Construction and Retail Trade. From 2003 to 2007, there are three sectors (Utilities sector, Accommodation and food services sector, and Public Administration sector) that have a higher per capita number of businesses compared to the provincial average. All sectors in Sioux Lookout suffered decreases of concentration per capita from 2003 to In 2008, the largest number of employers in Sioux Lookout was in the Accommodation Services sub-sector. At the industry level, the largest number of employers was in the RV (Recreational Vehicle) Parks and Recreational Camps industry. Business structure analysis used Community Business Profile Data ( ) from the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs, Rural Development Division, as well as Business Pattern Data (June June 2008) from Statistics Canada. 5.1 Business Sector Analysis Growth in Business Numbers Table 27 (in the Appendix) indicates the number of businesses in each industry from 2003 to It is important to note that in order for a business to be included in the Canadian Business Register, a business must meet at least one of the following three criteria: 1. Have an employee workforce for which they submit payroll remittances to Canada Revenue Agency (CRA); or 2. Have a minimum of $30,000 in annual sales revenue; or 3. Are incorporated under a federal or provincial act and have filed a federal corporate income tax return within the past three years. Businesses that are not registered are not included in this section s data, the number of which can be significant if they are small businesses. McSweeney & Associates 36 March 31, 2011

42 Based on Table 27 (in the Appendix), the following are some key observations: Overall, more than half the sectors experienced growth in the number of local businesses from 2003 to The sectors that had strong growth in the number of local businesses from 2003 to 2007 were: o Real estate and rental and leasing o Management of companies and enterprises. The accommodation sector experienced the largest decline in the number of local businesses between 2003 and Growth in Business Concentrations Table 28 (in the Appendix) indicates the percentage of businesses by sector from 2003 to The top two sectors with the highest concentration of businesses in Sioux Lookout were: Construction (increased from 2003 to 2007) Retail Trade (decreased from 2003 to 2007) Growth in Business Concentrations per Capita Concentration per capita is the ratio of local businesses per capita to provincial businesses per capita, and indicates the relative concentration or specialization of businesses in different sectors in the municipality. Any value higher than 1.0 indicates that the local economy has a higher per capita number of businesses than the provincial ratio. In Table 29 in the Appendix, we observe that from 2003 to 2007 there are three sectors (Utilities sector, Accommodation and food services sector, and Public Administration sector) that have a higher per capita number of businesses compared to the provincial average. All sectors in Sioux Lookout suffered decreases of concentration per capita from 2003 to Growth in Business Concentrations by Sector Concentration by sector is a ratio indicating the relative specialization of businesses in different industry sectors across a municipality. Values greater than 1.0 indicate that the local concentration of businesses in a sector, relative to other sectors in Sioux Lookout, is higher than the provincial average, indicating a relative local specialization in that sector. As identified in Table 30 in the Appendix, the following businesses had a higher than average concentration in Sioux Lookout: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting (increased) Mining and oil and gas extraction (increased) Utilities (decreased) Construction (increased) Retail trade (increased) Transportation and Warehousing (decreased) Health care and social assistance (increased) Accommodation and food services (increased) Other services (except public administration) (increased) Public Administration (increased). McSweeney & Associates 37 March 31, 2011

43 5.2 Business Pattern Analysis Sioux Lookout Market Study As an indicator of employer structure, business pattern data for Sioux Lookout was examined up until June 2008, when the last available municipal level data was collected. Business pattern data is available for both sub-sector and industry levels. Tables 31 and 32 demonstrate Sioux Lookout s top 15 sub-sectors and industries by total number of employers and by employee size range in June In 2008, the largest number of employers in Sioux Lookout was in the Accommodation Services sub-sector. At the industry level, the largest number of employers was in the RV (Recreational Vehicle) Parks and Recreational Camps industry. Table 33 indicates the percentage change in total number of employers between June 2003 and June The following observations can be made: The total number of employers in Sioux Lookout decreased (9%) over the two year period, while Ontario experienced a 13.0% increase. Sioux Lookout experienced significant increases in the number of employers in the Real Estate and Rental and Leasing sector. At the sub-sector level, growth occurred in the number of businesses in: o Accommodation Services o Specialty Trade Contractors o Real Estate o Securities, Commodity Contracts, and Other Financial Investment and Related Activities o Management of Companies and Enterprises o Air Transportation o Social Assistance. At the industry level, the most significant increases in the number of businesses were in the following industries: o Lessors of Real Estate o Other Financial Investment Activities o Management of Companies and Enterprises o Individual and Family Services. Considerable decreases in the number of businesses occurred in: o Logging o Residential Construction o Full-Service Restaurants. 19 June 2008 Canadian Business Pattern data is the latest data for CSD level, after this edition all CSD level data for Canadian Business Pattern date are no longer available. McSweeney & Associates 38 March 31, 2011

44 6 Economic Development Trends Analysis 6.1 Site Selection Factors In 2010, the 25 th Annual Corporate Survey [ 8 ] was conducted to rate site selection factors and the impact these factors have on planning decisions. 20 Highlighted points of the survey are as follows: Highway accessibility and Labour costs are consistently the two most important site selection factors. Occupancy and construction costs is the fourth-place factor, jumping from seventh place in 2009 and receiving a combined 89.8% importance rating. Three related tax factors made the 2010 Corporate Survey respondents top10 tax exemptions, state and local incentives and corporate tax rate. Availability of skilled labour is always of great importance as a site selector factor. Interestingly, availability of unskilled labour, which is ranked in the 23 rd spot for 2010, showed the second largest drop in importance among all the site selection factors. Inbound/outbound shipping costs is ranked in 8 th position in Energy availability and costs is ranked 9 th in 2010, from 4 th in Environmental regulations moved up five spots in the ranking, from 17 th in 2009 to 12 th in Rounding out the top 10 site selection factors is availability of buildings, which received a combined 81% importance rating from the 2010 survey. Availability of advanced ICT services factor showed the largest decrease in its importance rating. In 2010, low crime rate, which is historically ranked as the primary quality-of-life concern as borne out by the survey s 25-year record, received an 84.6% importance rating. 20 For more information about the survey please go to : McSweeney & Associates 39 March 31, 2011

45 The following two figures provide more detailed results of the 2010 Corporate Survey. Figure 27: Site Selection Factors Source: The 25th Annual Corporate Survey & 7th Annual Consultants Survey, 2010 McSweeney & Associates 40 March 31, 2011

46 Figure 28: Site Selection Factors Combined Rating* of 2010 Factors Source: The 25th Annual Corporate Survey & 7th Annual Consultants Survey, 2009 McSweeney & Associates 41 March 31, 2011