STATE OF THE NORTH RESPONDING TO NORTHERN ONTARIO S DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFT SEPT 27-28, 2017, TIMMINS, ONTARIO.

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1 STATE OF THE NORTH RESPONDING TO NORTHERN ONTARIO S DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFT SEPT 27-28, 2017, TIMMINS, ONTARIO. 1

2 Welcome! The Growth Plan for Northern Ontario is closing in on its 5 year anniversary. It s stated goals are to: Grow and diversify the economy; Enhance education, training and career opportunities; Support efficient and effective infrastructure investment and planning; and Ensure sustainable development and land use planning. Now is a good time to assess progress, and step forward into solution-based discussions. 2

3 GDP by Goods-Producing Industry(Chained 2007 Dollars x1,000,000) AGRICULTURE FORESTRY, FISHING, MINING, QUARRYING, OIL AND GAS MANUFACTURING 1000 UTILITIES CONSTRUCTION Northeast Northwest Source: Author's calculations based on Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey (Cansim Table ), and GDP estimations ( )

4 GDP by Service-Producing Industry (Chained 2007 Dollars x1,000,000) (1) Northeast Northwest TRADE (WHOLESALE & RETAIL) TRANSPORTATION & WAREHOUSING FINANCE, INSURANCE, REAL ESTATE & LEASING PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC & TECHNICAL SERVICES Source: Author's calculations based on Statistics Canada Labour 4 Force Survey (Cansim Table ), and GDP estimations ( )

5 Value of Non-Residential Building Permits (In 2016 Dollars x1,000) Commercial Institutional Industrial $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0 GREATER SUDBURY $10,000 $9,000 $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0 MANITOULIN DISTRICT $100,000 $90,000 $80,000 $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 PARRY SOUND DISTRICT $50,000 $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 NIPISSING DISTRICT Source: Author s calculations based on Statistics Canada, Investment 5 and Capital Stock Division, and Bank of Canada, Consumer Price Index

6 Value of Non-Residential Building Permits (In 2016 Dollars x1,000) Commercial Institutional Industrial $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0 ALGOMA DISTRICT $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 COCHRANE DISTRICT $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 SUDBURY DISTRICT $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 TIMISKAMING DISTRICT Source: Author s calculations based on Statistics Canada, Investment 6 and Capital Stock Division, and Bank of Canada, Consumer Price Index

7 Value of Non-Residential Building Permits (In 2016 Dollars x1,000) Commercial Institutional Industrial $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0 THUNDER BAY DISTRICT $18,000 $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 RAINY RIVER DISTRICT $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0 KENORA DISTRICT Source: Author s calculations based on Statistics Canada, Investment 7 and Capital Stock Division, and Bank of Canada, Consumer Price Index

8 Investment and Business Attraction More Investment in Institutional Buildings, less in Commercial than Ontario 60% DISTRIBUTION BY TYPES OF NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS (VALUE), AVERAGE OVER THE PERIOD 50% 50.0% 47.2% 40% 40.6% 37.1% 30% 20% 22.3% 29.0% 20.9% 21.6% 31.1% 10% 0% Northeast Northwest Ontario Commercial Industrial Institutional Source: Author s calculations based on Statistics Canada, Investment and Capital Stock Division, and Bank of Canada, Consumer Price Index 8

9 4,203 1,090 2,709 4,395 1,148 2,717 1,628 1,633 1,745 1,777 4,195 4,292 6,610 6,710 5,814 5,858 7,351 7,450 10,587 10,789 12,094 12,341 Investment and Business Attraction Growth in Every District in the Total Number of Businesses 14,000 NUMBER OF BUSINESSES BY DISTRICT (JUNE OF EACH YEAR) 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Source: Author s calculations based on Statistics Canada, Business Counts. 9

10 Investment and Business Attraction A Decreasing Number of Bankruptcies NUMBER OF BUSINESS BANKRUPTCIES Northeast Northwest Source: Author s calculations based on Industry Canada, Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy. 10

11 Education and Skills Not Enough Workers to Replace Those Who Will Retire JOB VACANCIES IN NORTHEASTERN ONTARIO, NUMBER OF WORKERS REACHING RETIREMENT AGE BY 2021 AND GRADUATES BY OCCUPATION Sales & service occupations Management occupations Trades, transport & equipment operators & related occupations Natural resources, agriculture & related production occupations Occupations in manufacturing & utilities Business, finance & administration occupations Occupations in art, culture, recreation & sport UNDER SUPPLY OVER SUPPLY Natural & applied sciences & related occupations Health occupations Occupations in education, law & social, community & government services Sources: Jarrod Sundmark, Labour Market Alignment: Education in the North Northern Policy Institute, based on Statistics Canada Job Vacancies and Wages Survey, and CUDO/data provided by Colleges; Statistics Canada, National Household Survey, ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 Number of worker who will reach 65 by 2021 Total Number of Graduates, 2014 Number of Vacancies, 2015

12 Education and Skills Not Enough Workers to Replace Those Who Will Retire JOB VACANCIES IN NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO, NUMBER OF WORKERS REACHING RETIREMENT AGE BY 2021 AND GRADUATES BY OCCUPATION Sales & service occupations Trades, transport & equipment operators & related occupations Management occupations Business, finance & administration occupations Natural resources, agriculture & related production occupations Occupations in manufacturing & utilities Occupations in art, culture, recreation & sport Health occupations UNDER SUPPLY OVER SUPPLY Natural & applied sciences & related occupations Occupations in education, law & social, community & government services Sources: Jarrod Sundmark, Labour Market Alignment: Education in the North Northern Policy Institute, based on Statistics Canada Job Vacancies and Wages Survey, and CUDO/data provided by Colleges; Statistics Canada, National Household Survey, ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 Number of worker who will reach 65 by 2021 Total Number of Graduates, 2014 Number of Vacancies, 2015

13 75% Integration in the Labour Market Stable or Increasing Participation Rate in Greater Sudbury, Rainy River & Kenora, Manitoulin, Sudbury & Timiskaming Districts STABLE OR INCREASING PARTICIPATION RATE BY DISTRICT 75% DECREASING 70% 70% 65% 65% 60% 60% 55% 55% 50% 50% Manitoulin, Sudbury, & Timiskaming Districts Sudbury Regional Municipality Cochrane District Rainy River & Kenora Districts Ontario Algoma District Thunder Bay District Nipissing District Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, 2 years moving average, custom tabulation 13

14 Integration in the Labour Market Stable of Increasing Employment Rate in Greater Sudbury, Rainy River & Kenora, Manitoulin, Sudbury & Timiskaming Districts 70% STABLE OR INCREASING EMPLOYMENT RATE BY DISTRICT 70% DECREASING 65% 65% 60% 60% 55% 55% 50% 50% 45% 45% Manitoulin, Sudbury, & Timiskaming Districts Sudbury Regional Municipality Cochrane District Rainy River & Kenora Districts Ontario Algoma District Thunder Bay District Nipissing District Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, 2 years moving average, custom tabulation 14

15 Integration in the Labour Market The proportion of full-time jobs increased in Northern Ontario 83% 82% 81% 80% 79% 78% 77% 76% 75% 74% 73% 82.2% 79.0% 78.7% FULL-TIME EMPLOYMENT AS A PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 81.0% 80.6% 79.1% 72% Northeast Northwest Ontario Source: Statistics Canada. Table Labour force survey estimates (LFS), annual 15

16 Integration in the Labour Market A Bright Spot: Youth Employment Rates YOUTH EMPLOYMENT RATE (%) (15 TO 19 YEARS) 75 YOUTH EMPLOYMENT RATE (%) (20 TO 24 YEARS) Northeast Northwest Ontario Source: Author s calculations based on Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, custom tabulation 16

17 Integration in the Labour Market Indigenous Population 70% 60% 50% EMPLOYMENT RATE OF THE INDIGENOUS POPULATION COMPARED TO THAT OF THE OVERALL POPULATION, 2011 ABOVE 52% 51% 50% 51% BELOW 58% 57% 55% 53% 49% 51% 46% 45% 50% 56% 53% 60% 44% 51% 55% 47% 48% 57% 56% 45% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Indigenous Population Overall Population Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey, 2011, custom tabulation 17

18 Integration in the Labour Market Francophone Population EMPLOYMENT RATE OF FRANCOPHONES COMPARED TO THAT OF THE OVERALL POPULATION, % ABOVE BELOW 60% 50% 56% 55% 56% 56% 59% 60% 51% 50% 56% 54% 58% 56% 50% 51% 48% 48% 57% 54% 50% 55% 44% 51% 49% 40% 36% 30% 20% 10% 0% Francophones Overall Population Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey, 2011, custom tabulation 18

19 Integration in the Labour Market Immigrant Population EMPLOYMENT RATE OF IMMIGRANTS COMPARED TO THAT OF THE OVERALL POPULATION, % 70% 69% 67% 66% ABOVE BELOW 60% 50% 57% 59% 55% 56% 55% 60% 58% 54% 54% 52% 51% 51% 46% 49% 50% 40% 30% 40% 32% 20% 10% 0% Kenora Rainy River Thunder Bay Nipissing Ontario Greater Sudbury Algoma Timiskaming Manitoulin Parry Sound Immigrants Overall Population *Data for Sudbury District was not available Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey, 2011, custom tabulation 19

20 Infrastructure Many Northerners Do Not Have Access to Speedy Broadband Internet UNSERVED OR UNDERSERVED POPULATIONS IN NORTHERN ONTARIO, 2014 (1) Source: Government of Canada. Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission. 20

21 Infrastructure Many Northerners Do Not Have Access to Speedy Broadband Internet UNSERVED OR UNDERSERVED POPULATION IN NORTHERN ONTARIO, 2014 (2) Source: Government of Canada. Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission. 21

22 Infrastructure In Ontario, Average Cost of Highways is the Lowest in the Northwest $700 AVERAGE COST OF HIGHWAY PER KM (IN THOUSANDS),2016 $600 $579 $573 $500 $400 $402 $392 $377 $353 $336 $300 $200 $100 $0 Western Ontario Northeastern Ontario Northern Manitoba Central Ontario Eastern Ontario Northwestern Ontario Southern Manitoba Source: Winter Lipscombe, Unpublished manuscript, Northern Policy Institute 22

23 Infrastructure More Long-Term Drinking Water Advisories in Northern Ontario than in Canada NUMBER OF LONG TERM* DRINKING WATER ADVISORIES IN FIRST NATION COMMUNITIES, % 90% 80% PERCENTAGE OF BOILED WATER ADVISORIES DECLARED FOR EQUIPMENT AND PROCESS CAUSES, IN FIRST NATION COMMUNITIES 50 70% 40 60% % 40% 30% 20% 0 10% 0% Northern Ontario Southern Ontario *Long term = more than a year Source: Government of Canada Drinking Water Advisories: First Nations South of 60 Source: Author s Calculations based on Health Canada, Drinking Water Advisories in First Nations Data 23

24 Air Quality A Decreasing Number of Days Under Smog Advisories 50 NUMBER OF DAYS UNDER SMOG ADVISORIES* Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet Parry Sound - Muskoka - Huntsville Elliot Lake - Ranger Lake Sault Ste. Marie - Superior East Greater Sudbury and Vicinity Manitoulin - Northshore - Killarney North Bay - West Nipissing City of Toronto *Regions in Northern Ontario not mentioned in the graph did not experience any smog advisory over the period Source: Air Quality Data Sets, Ministry of Environment and Climate Change 24

25 Farm Area Farm Area in Timiskaming District Decreased Less Than in Ontario CUMULATIVE GROWTH OF FARM AREA - NORTHEASTERN DISTRICTS 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% Timiskaming, -7.7% Ontario, -8.3% Nipissing, -10.2% Manitoulin, -23.9% -30% Algoma, -24.0% Cochrane, -34.5% Greater Sudbury, -36.0% -40% Sudbury, -36.1% Source: Author s calculations based on Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs, using data from Statistics Canada, Census of Agriculture 25

26 Farm Area Farm Area in Rainy River Decreased Less Than in Other Northwestern Districts CUMULATIVE GROWTH OF FARM AREA - NORTHWESTERN DISTRICTS 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% Ontario, -8.3% Rainy River, -12.1% Thunder Bay, -22.6% -40% -50% Kenora, -48.5% -60% Source: Author s calculations based on Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs, using data from Statistics Canada, Census of Agriculture 26

27 Demographics Negative Population Growth in Some Districts 30% CUMULATIVE POPULATION GROWTH SINCE 1996 BY DISTRICT 25% Ontario, 25.1% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Nipissing, -2.0% Thunder Bay, -7.3% Algoma, -9.1% Rainy River, -13.2% Cochrane, -14.5% -20% Timiskaming, -14.7% Source: Author s calculation based on Statistics Canada, Census, Various Years. 27

28 Demographics But Positive Growth in Others 30% CUMULATIVE POPULATION GROWTH SINCE 1996 BY DISTRICT 25% Ontario, 25.1% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Manitoulin, 16.1% Parry Sound, 7.3% Kenora, 3.5% Greater Sudbury, -1.5% -10% -15% Sudbury, -15.4% -20% Source: Author s calculation based on Statistics Canada, Census, Various Years. 28

29 Demographics An Aging Population in Every District 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% POPULATION 65 YEARS OLD AND OVER AS A PERCENTAGE OF THE TOTAL POPULATION 40.0% 37.3% 34.9% 34.1% 31.4% 31.6% 29.9% 30.2% 30.2% 28.5% 27.3% 24.5% Source: Author s calculation based on Statistics Canada, Census, various years, and Ontario Ministry of Finances Population Projections 29

30 2001/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2016 Demographics More People Leaving Northern Ontario than Coming to the Region NET MIGRATION AND MIGRATION COMPONENTS NORTHEAST NORTHWEST Intraprovincial Net Migration International Net Migration Interprovincial Net Migration Net Migration Source: Statistics Canada. Table Components of population growth by economic region; and author s calculations. 30

31 Demographic Trends in Northern Ontario Newcomers needed by Economic Region Required Annual Net Migration - Northeast Required Annual Net Migration - Northwest , , Annual Net Migration - Target 1 Net Annual Migration - Target 1 Annual Net Migration - Target 2 Net Annual Migration - Target 2 Average Annual Net Migration - Target 1 Average Annual Net Migration - Target 1 Average Annual Net Migration - Target 2 Average Annual Net Migration - Target 2 Source: Author s calculations based on Statistics Canada estimates for 2015, and Ontario Ministry of Finance population projections Spring

32 The Conference Northern Ontario is facing a combination of a declining and aging population. These demographic shifts will have significant implications on Northern Ontario s economy and society, impacting the long term sustainability of all 11 districts in the region. BUT Northern Ontario has assets it can use, from higher employment rates for youth to higher median income for immigrants, and from a young and growing Indigenous population to a growing number of businesses. 32

33 Enjoy the conference! QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS? 1 (807) info@northernpolicy.ca /NorthernPolicy 33