OFFICAL PLAN REVIEW ISSUES PAPER 2. GROWTH 2031 People Make the Difference

Transcription

1 OFFICAL PLAN REVIEW ISSUES PAPER 2 GROWTH 2031 People Make the Difference County of Prince Edward Planning Department July 2011

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3 TABLE OF CONTENTS SUMMARY 6 INTRODUCTION POPULATION 1991 to Population Counts Growth Rates Twenty-Year Rate Ten-Year Rate Annual Rates County Ward Rates Growth Factors Natural Increase Net Migration Key Comparisons Other Demographic Changes Age Households Mobility Population Density County Wide By Ward Other Communities Population Distribution North to South By Ward Development Distribution Non-Permanent Residents POPULATION 2011 to Population Projections Growth Rates Twenty-Year Rate Five-Year Rates Growth Factors Natural Decrease Net Migration Demographic Changes 34 2

4 2.4.1 Median Age Age Structure Age Group Non-Permanent Residents Residential Land Requirements EMPLOYMENT CHANGES Labour Force Participation Rate Earnings Unpaid Work Occupation Knowledge and Skills Place of Work Employment Land Requirements CURRENT POLICIES Official Plan Population Projections Picton and Wellington Rossmore Bloomfield and the Hamlets Provincial Policy Statement Efficient Development and Land Use Patterns Settlement Areas Rural Areas Coordination Employment PLANNING ISSUES 51 Issue 1 Low Long-Term Population Growth 51 Issue 2 Reliance on Newcomers for Growth 51 Issue 3 Impacts of an Aging Population 52 Issue 4 Loss of Young People 52 Issue 5 Shrinking Work Force 52 Issue 6 Realizing Employment Potential 53 Issue 7 Scattered, Low-Density Development 53 Issue 8 Impact of Non-Permanent Residents 54 3

5 6.0 NEXT STEPS and LEARNING MORE 55 END NOTES 56 APPENDIX A Overview: The Official Plan Review 59 APPENDIX B Demographic Tables 61 APPENDIX C New Home Building Permits 74 APPENDIX D Definitions of Rural 75 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 Variable Population Growth, 1991 to 2011 Figure 2 Variability in Annual Growth Rates, 2005 to 2010 Figure 3 15-Year Growth Rates, Former Municipalities/Current Wards, Prince Edward County, 1991 to 2006 Figure 4 Population Structure by Age Group, Prince Edward and Ontario, 1996 Figure 5 Population Structure by Age Group, Prince Edward and Ontario, 2006 Figure 6 Population Share by Ward, Prince Edward County, 1991 and 2010 Figure 7 Development Activity Within and Outside Settlement Areas Figure 7a Consent Applications by Ward, 1993 to 2010 Figure 8 New Home Building Permits by Ward, 2004 to 2010 Figure 9 Distribution of Non-Permanent Residents by Ward, 2010 Figure 10 Five-Year Growth Rates, Prince Edward County and Ontario, 1991 to 2036 Figure 11 Four Largest Age Groups in Prince Edward County, 2009 and 2036 Figure 12 Change in Age Groups Under 60, Prince Edward County, 2011 to 2031 Figure 13 Change in Age Groups Over 60, Prince Edward County, 2011 to 2031 Figure 14 Median Earnings Comparison, Prince Edward and other Census Divisions Figure 15 Education Level of Core Working Age Population, Prince Edward County and Ontario 4

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7 SUMMARY A Special Place with Special Challenges This paper contributes to Prince Edward County s Official Plan Review firstly, by providing background information on population and employment growth from 1991 to 2011, and secondly, by identifying planning issues related to growth projections to In accordance with Council s policy on public consultation, the paper is to be widely circulated to invite feedback from community members and stakeholders. Planning for Prince Edward s future starts with an understanding of its history, which spans over two hundred years. Since the first settlers began arriving from Upper Canada s mainland, this bountiful peninsula-turned-island has experienced modest population growth and varying degrees of economic prosperity and hardship. While some county-born move away, newcomers continue settling in the peaceful countryside and charming hamlets, villages and town to enjoy a special quality of life. Many of the County s present employment challenges arise from a local economy that has been linked historically to primary resources and seasonal tourism. Increased diversification in these sectors, together with growth in other sectors, including culture and technology, should help to create greater economic resilience and sustainability. Some of the things that have always made the County special, including its small, dispersed population and out-of-the-way location, will continue to present the community with familiar growth challenges in the years ahead. Also, more recent demographic trends will lead to new challenges. Projected permanent population 1 and employment changes, and key planning issues that will likely result, are summarized as follows. 6

8 ISSUE 1 Challenges Facts LOW POPULATION GROWTH Moderating effects in the economy, with implications for business activity, employment opportunity, and public expenditure on infrastructure and community facilities and services. By 2031 Prince Edward s population is estimated to increase by 2,000 people, which is 500 less than the past 20 years. The percent increase in population is a fraction of the growth rates estimated for Ontario and Eastern Ontario. Cottage country areas like Haliburton, Muskoka and Kawartha Lakes are expected to grow at double to triple the rate of Prince Edward. ISSUE 2 RELIANCE ON NEWCOMERS FOR GROWTH Challenges Local factors that could dissuade people from moving to Prince Edward, such as limited opportunities for earning income, limited community facilities and services, and compromised quality of place. Facts With fewer births than deaths and youth continuing to leave for higher education, jobs and lifestyle, population growth will occur only if people keep moving to Prince Edward in substantial numbers. ISSUES 3 & 4 Challenges Facts ISSUE 5 Challenges Facts MORE SENIORS and LESS CHILDREN Impacts on facilities and services for seniors, children, and families with children. In 2010 Prince Edward was the second oldest census district in Ontario and the sixth oldest in Canada. By 2036 Prince Edward is expected to replace Haliburton as the provincial census district with the highest percent of seniors (42%) and lowest percent of children (9.4%). FEWER RESIDENT WORKERS Labour challenges for current employers and new businesses considering whether to locate in Prince Edward. Labour force growth is a key determinant of economic growth 2. By 2031 Prince Edward s working age population is expected to shrink by over 3,000 people. Historically Prince Edward has lagged well behind Ontario with regard to labour force growth. 7

9 ISSUE 6 Challenges Facts DECLINE IN TRADITIONAL OCCUPATIONS and MODEST GROWTH IN OTHER OCCUPATIONS Ways to stimulate both old and new economic sectors so as to provide more well paying jobs and reduce the need to commute to work outside Prince Edward. From 2001 to 2006: The fastest declining occupation group was agriculture. The fastest growing occupation group was art, culture, recreation and sport, which increased by 45.5% and added 225 jobs. The percent of workers who worked at home dropped from 14.3% to 12.9%. In 2006 earnings of full time workers in Prince Edward were the third lowest of Ontario s 49 census divisions. Nearly 50% of local residents whose work is done at a usual place (eg. an office, store or factory) work at locations outside the County, which means that over 4,000 people work (and shop) in other municipalities. ISSUE 7 MORE SCATTERED, LOW DENSITY DEVELOPMENT Challenges Negative impacts on agriculture, the natural environment and rural landscapes, as well as on the main settlements in terms of critical mass, economies of scale and sustainability. Facts If trends continue, Prince Edward s population growth will result in new low density housing located mostly in the countryside. ISSUE 8 Challenges Facts UNCERTAIN NON-PERMANENT POPULATION GROWTH Ways to maintain Prince Edward s appeal as a place to own a vacation home. In 2010, 14% of Prince Edward s total population was non-permanent. Non-permanent residents likely own about 2,000 vacation homes, the equivalent of two Wellington villages. Traditionally some 90% of vacation homes in Canada have been owned by affluent, urban residents. About 74% of Canada s vacation homes have been owned by seniors, couples without children and single people, with the remainder owned by families with children. Fractional ownership is a trend in Ontario s vacation home market. 8

10 INTRODUCTION Growth 2031 is part of the County of Prince Edward s Official Plan Review. The OPR has two phases. The first began in 2010 with the preparation of new secondary plans for Picton-Hallowell and Wellington. The second began in 2011 with the preparation of a new Official Plan for the Municipality (the County). An explanation of the OPR is contained in Appendix A. The first stage of the OPR, Phase 2 calls for the circulation of discussion papers that will identify key planning issues to be analyzed for new policy opportunities in the following stage. Growth 2031 is the second paper in the series. The first paper, Vision 2031, is available from the Planning Department or online, as detailed in Section 3.6 and Appendix A. Other discussion papers will focus on economy, settlements, rural areas, shore land, environment, housing, infrastructure, and other planning elements. In accordance with Council s OPR Public Consultation Plan, all of the issues papers will be widely circulated to invite feedback from stakeholders and community members, for consideration in the coming policy development stages. Growth 2031 contributes to the discussion of planning issues by describing recent and projected changes in the County s population and employment situation, and by identifying major issues related to such changes. This is an important first step toward developing new Official Plan policies for managing change so that the municipality grows in the best possible way. Strategic planning for population and employment growth helps to create healthy, prosperous and vibrant communities. In developing the policies that will be at the core of an effective growth strategy, it is necessary to assess Prince Edward s growth characteristics relative to those of other communities, and then devise a made-in-the-county approach to creating opportunities out of apparent weaknesses, gaining momentum from established strengths, and capitalizing on hidden or underdeveloped assets. An aggressive economic development strategy will be a critical part of planning for growth to

11 There are different indicators of population and employment change that help create snapshots of past, present and future conditions in the community. These scenarios and the issues they raise for Prince Edward s growth are presented as follows: Section 1 outlines key changes in Prince Edward s population from 1991 to Section 2 presents population projections up to 2031, the planning horizon of the OPR. Section 3 provides information on employment in the County, including some of the ways it is expected to change over the next 20 years. Section 4 summarizes growth and development policies in the existing Official Plan and Provincial Policy Statement. Section 5 identifies major issues related to the projected population and employment changes. Section 6 outlines the next steps in the OPR, Phase 2. About the Data Most available data on population and employment comes from the Census of Canada, conducted every five years. For the intervening years, Statistics Canada prepares annual population estimates. The Ontario Ministry of Finance uses the information to predict population growth well into the future, currently to Data sources in this paper are either cited in the text or the end notes. Prince Edward is one of Ontario s 49 census divisions and it is subdivided into 39 dissemination areas for the purpose of data collection. Many of these small geographic units cross municipal ward boundaries, therefore growth analysis for the County s ten wards is based on allocation judgments made by the Planning Department using the Geographic Information System (GIS). Minor discrepancies in number and percentage totals are due to rounding. 10

12 1.0 POPULATION 1991 to Population Counts How many of us live here? According to Statistics Canda, in 2011 an estimated 26,260 people live in Prince Edward County. This is 2,500 more than in While an increase of 2,500 over twenty years may seem small, it is quite significant relative to historic growth, which brought an increase of only 7,300 people over the previous 112 years 3. As Figure 1 illustrates, the four census counts for the past 20 years show that short-term growth has been variable and has included one period of population decline: Of note is that since the 1960s, larger Canadian cities grew more than smaller cities and, for the most part, smaller cities grew more than rural and small town areas like Prince Edward County 4. In 2006, only 12% of Ontario s population was living in rural and small town areas 5. This pattern is expected to continue, as discussed in section

13 1.2 Growth Rates 6 How fast are we growing? Another way to express population change is by the percent of increase or decrease for a given period. This is called the growth rate and it has a negative value when growth is, in fact, decline due to a net loss of population, as was experienced in the County from 1996 to A community s growth rate reflects the pace of change it is experiencing; the rate can be compared to other communities regardless of their size. Rural areas grow at a much slower pace than urban areas, and some have negative growth rates that reflect how fast they are losing population. As shown in Figure 1, Prince Edward lost 150 people between 1996 and 2001, for a five-year growth rate of -0.6%. This is a minimal rate of population loss, but given that it came on the heels of 5.4% growth, the sudden reversal underscores the fragility of growth in the County Twenty-Year Rate Prince Edward s population increase of 2,500 translates into a 20- year growth rate of 10.5%. How does the County s pace of growth compare? Relative to the province as a whole, Prince Edward s growth is very slow. Over the past two decades, the County grew at about one-third the rate of Ontario: PEC 10.5% versus ON 29.6%. Neighbouring counties also performed relatively poorly, but as expected from analysis that shows a positive correlation between growth rate and population size, our larger neighbours outpaced Prince Edward: Hastings 18.1% and Lennox and Addington 14.2%. 12

14 1.2.2 Ten-Year Rate From 2001 to 2011 the County grew at about the same rate as the previous decade, but the gap between it and Ontario narrowed significantly due to less provincial growth: PEC 5.5% versus ON 11.1%. The fact that Prince Edward maintained its pace while the province slowed is a positive sign regarding local conditions. Also positive is the fact that Prince Edward outpaced its neighbours in growth: Hastings 4.1% and Lennox and Addington 3.9%. Where do we stand with comparable areas? Comparisons with other census divisions with small populations hereafter called reference areas underscore a certain strength in the County and also suggest that we have unrealized potential. Since 2001, Prince Edward, Rainy River and Sudbury consistently have had about 0.2% of the provincial population, with current counts at 26,260, 21,600 and 21,340, respectively. When it comes to rate of growth, however, Rainy River and Sudbury are both losing people. Their paces of loss are very different: Rainy River -5.7% and Sudbury -10.1%. Consistently one share level below Prince Edward are Haliburton and Manitoulin with about 0.1% of Ontario s population. Although they are the smallest reference areas, with respective populations of 17,270 and 13,750, they are growing fast: Haliburton 10.2% and Manitoulin 4.5%. Consistently one share level above Prince Edward at about 0.3% of Ontario s population are Timiskaming and Lennox and Addington, with populations of 33,590 and 42,540. Their rates of growth are markedly different: Timiskaming -5.9% and Lennox and Addington 3.9%. Of note is that the Lennox and Addington census division includes data for the Town of Greater Napanee census subdivision. Similarly, the Hastings census district includes data for the City of Quinte West census subdivision. The City of Belleville census subdivision is part of the Belleville census agglomeration. 13

15 1.2.3 Annual Rates The variability of small populations with regard to growth is particularly apparent in their one-year growth rates. From 2005 to 2010, Prince Edward experienced growth rates ranging from minus 5.1% in to 8.8% in The County remains well below the province s stable annual growth rates, which range from 10.0% to 11.1%. Hastings and the reference areas have very different rates and patterns of highs and lows, but no census division is as variable as Prince Edward. This is illustrated by Figure 2. From this it is clear that small populations in different parts of Ontario are changing in very different ways, even within the same region. Since growth normally translates into land development and employment expansion, the strategies for promoting and managing growth must be tailored to local circumstances. In Prince Edward, short-term unpredictability is a factor to be considered. 14

16 1.2.4 Ward Rates The percentage change in population for each of the County s ten ward s, from 1991 to 2006, is presented in Table 1, Appendix B. The data shows that growth hot spots are changing, as summarized following and illustrated by Figure 3. From 1991 to 1996, Wellington had the fastest rate of growth at 18.6%, followed by Sophiasburgh at 8.2%, and Picton at 6.5%. Athol s growth declined at a rate of -2.3%, while Bloomfield s was almost zero at -0.3%. From 2001 to 2006, Sophiasburgh had by far the highest growth rate at 22.5%, with South Marysburgh and Hillier a distant second and third at 9.6% and 9.5%, respectively. 15

17 1.3 Growth Factors What causes our numbers to rise and fall? Births, deaths and migration determine population change in the County. The number of births minus deaths is commonly referred to as natural increase. But changing trends in some communities are resulting in more deaths than births so that natural increase is a negative value to reflect a decrease in population. Prince Edward falls in this category. The number of people moving into a community minus those moving out is called net migration. In many rural communities there are more people leaving than coming, which results in negative net migration. Fortunately Prince Edward is not in this category. The combination of these factors, which are unique to each community, determines change in population size. Statistics Canada provides recent data on natural increase and net migration for all census districts in Ontario 8. Table 2, Appendix B contains recent data on natural increase and net migration for Ontario, Prince Edward and selected census divisions. An analysis is provided following Natural Increase From 2009 to 2010, Prince Edward s resident population decreased by 148 due to many more deaths than births, resulting in the highest rate of natural decrease in Ontario 9. This contrasts sharply with the rate of increase for Ontario: PEC -5.6 per thousand versus ON The negative natural increase experienced in Prince Edward also occurred in neighbouring census districts, but at much lower rates: Hastings -0.6 and Lennox and Addington The other reference areas also experienced negative natural increase at much lower rates than Prince Edward, except for Haliburton which was close at -4.7: Manitoulin -2.3, Rainy River -0.8, Sudbury -0.7, and Timiskaming In contrast, highly populated areas had relatively high positive rates of natural increase due in part to their younger populations: Ottawa 3.9, 16

18 Durham 4.6, Toronto 4.8, Waterloo 5.4, Halton 5.6, York 6.4, and Peel 8.8. Even some relatively small southern census districts had positive rates of natural increase, such as Dufferin at Net Migration Comparisons with other areas highlight the County s high rate of net migration: PEC 14.2 per thousand versus ON 7.5, Hastings -2.2, and Lennox and Addington 0.7. All the Northern Ontario reference areas are losing population due to more people moving out than in, while Haliburton is gaining people: Haliburton 10, Manitoulin -1, Rainy River -18, Sudbury -15, and Timiskaming -87. Prince Edward s rate is comparable to that of Ottawa and Peel, both at 13.6, but is significantly lower than York at 19.4 and Halton at These other areas, however, are not heavily reliant on Ontario migrants because, unlike Prince Edward, they attract many people from other provinces and other nations Key Comparisons Prince Edward and the reference areas all had more deaths than births, resulting in a decrease in population due to natural causes. Populous urban areas all had a natural increase in population. Prince Edward s rate of natural decrease far exceeded other areas. Prince Edward s rate of net migration far exceeded that of all reference areas, most of which lost population. Most people moving to Prince Edward came from within the province. Large urban centres attracted people largely from outside Ontario and Canada. 17

19 1.4 Other Demographic Changes Understanding the basic characteristics of our population is essential in planning for the different ways we change over time. The Canada Census collects data for these characteristics, as outlined following Age How does a whole community get older? Canada s population is aging, which means there are increasingly large proportions of people in the older age groups. This change is attributed to persistently low birth rates and extended life expectancy. Also, aging of the baby boom generation (people born between 1946 and 1965) is contributing to the trend, and will have an unprecedented impact as more and more boomers age beyond 65. Median Age The aging trend causes the median age of the population to rise. This is the age such that one half of the population is older and the other half is younger. Accordingly, the higher the median age, the older is the population. Over the twenty years that preceded the 2006 Census, Ontario s median age rose by 6 years to reach Over the five years that preceded the 2006 Census, Prince Edward s median age rose by 3.4 years to reach 47.7; in 2010 it reached Not only does the County have a much older population than Ontario, it is aging at a faster rate. Of note: In 2006 Prince Edward was Ontario s third oldest census district, after Parry Sound at 47.9 and Haliburton at By 2010, with a median age of 50.6 years, the County became the second oldest CD in Ontario, after Haliburton at 51.5 years, and the sixth oldest in Canada (39.7 years) 12. In 2006 all the remaining reference areas had a median age that was lower than that of Prince Edward but higher than Ontario: 18

20 Lennox and Addington 43.3, Manitoulin 44.1, Rainy River 41.0, Sudbury 45.0, and Timiskaming Communities around the County also had relatively old populations: Brockville 43.8, Hastings 42.3, Brighton 46.5, Cobourg 46.1, Port Hope 43.6, and Peterborough Ontario's youngest populations were found mostly in large urban areas: Ottawa, Toronto and Halton all 38.4, York 37.5, and Peel Age Structure Another way to view the aging trend is to look at a community s age structure. This refers to the number of people in different age groups that together make up the total population. Figures 4 and 5 depict the age structures of Prince Edward and Ontario for 1996 and They show: From 1996 to 2006, the percent of the population that was under age 45 decreased significantly in both Prince Edward and Ontario as a whole. This aging trend was much more pronounced in the County, where the under-45 population decreased from 56.1% to 45.5% of the population, a drop of 10.6%. In comparison, Ontario decreased from 66.1% to 59.9%, a drop of 6.2%. For this period, the 65+ population in Prince Edward increased from 18.9% to 21.7%, a rise of 2.8%. In comparison, Ontario increased from 12.4% to 13.6%, a rise of 1.2%. 19

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22 When the County s census populations from 1991 to 2006 are subdivided into age groups 13, the data tells us that over this 15 year period: People age 55 and over grew from 29.4% to 38% of the total population. Youth under age 20 decreased from 25.6% to 20.9%. All population groups under 45 decreased in percentage share, except the group age 15 to 19, which increased slightly. People between 25 and 34 showed the greatest decrease. Do County wards have different age structures? While each ward has it own unique distribution of population by age, some wards have similar characteristics 14 : Bloomfield, Ameliasburgh and Hillier are the youngest wards, with the largest percentages of youth under age 20 and the smallest percentages of adults age 55 years and over. Picton, Wellington and North Marysburgh have the oldest population profiles, with the smallest percentages under age 20 and the largest percentages age 55 and older. Bloomfield has the largest percentage of population between age 20 and 55 at 45.3%, followed closely by Athol at 43.2%, Ameliasburgh at 43%, Hallowell at 42.4%, Sophiasburgh at 42.2%, Hillier at 41.9%, and South Marysburgh at 41.7%. Wellington has by far the smallest percentage between age 20 and 55 at 33.4%. 21

23 1.4.2 Households The average size of a household is another indicator as to how a community's population is changing. Census data shows 15 : Between 1991 and 2006, Prince Edward's average household size declined from 2.6 persons per household to 2.4. In 2006 Ontario s average household size was 2.6. The County s 2006 figure is the same as that of Hastings, but less than other neighbouring Counties: Northumberland and Lennox and Addington both 2.5. The province's large growth regions compare as follows: Durham 2.9, Halton 2.8, and Peel and York both 3.2. The County's drop in average household size is likely related to its aging population, which is far more advanced than most communities. This relationship is supported by the even smaller household size of 2.3 in Ontario's oldest communities, Haliburton and Parry Sound Mobility People On the Move The 2006 Census records the number of Ontario residents who moved to different municipalities in the province within the past five years and the past one year. In Prince Edward, 16.4% moved within five years and 4% moved within one year. Ontario compares at 12.4% and 3.8%. Hastings and most of the reference areas have more intraprovincial migration than Prince Edward: Hastings 18% and 5.8%, Haliburton 22% and 4%, Lennox and Addington 19.7% and 6.9%, Sudbury 16.9% and 6.3%, and Timiskaming 16.7% and 6.1%. Large urban centres show much lower percentages for intraprovincial migration: Ottawa 5.4% and 1.7% and Toronto 22

24 4.7% and 1.8%. More important growth factors for such areas are immigration and migration from other provinces. Staying Put Residents of Prince Edward and the province as a whole are moving less. According to census data, in 2001, 64% of the County s population lived at the same address 5 years prior, whereas in 2006 the figure rose to 66.2%. Ontario compares at 57.1% and 58.7%. The data also shows that rural areas are less mobile that urban areas, as evidenced by Ottawa at 56.8% and Toronto at 54.8%. With regard to the reference areas, the County s 2006 percentage of 66.2% is mid-range between Hastings at 59.7%, Lennox and Addington at 64.2%, Haliburton at 64.4%, Timiskiming at 66.7%, Manitoulin at 67.8%, Sudbury at 69.0% and Rainy River at 72.8%. Deeply Rooted The 2006 Census shows that 62.1% of Prince Edward s population is third generation or more. Ontario compares at 38%. This disparity is expected because small rural communities typically have a relatively high proportion of residents with historic ties. All of the reference areas except Rainy River have even greater historic continuity than Prince Edward: Rainy River 55.5%, Haliburton 62.5%, Hastings 63.4%, Lennox and Addington 65.6%, Manitoulin 69.2%, Timiskaming 69.8%, and Sudbury 72.6%. If fertility, mortality and migration trends continue in Prince Edward, people with multigenerational ties will make up an increasingly smaller share of the population. 23

25 1.5 Population Density What is rural? Historically, rural was synonymous with agriculture, and a rural landscape meant farms. This is no longer the case. Increasingly, rural people live in settlements, and earn their living in non-agricultural sectors of the economy. Today the measures of rural are distance and density rather than farms. Distance relates to how far people travel to access goods, services and jobs. As discussed in section 3.7, a high proportion of County residents work outside the municipality, which means they are less rural than in earlier times when commuting was less common due to poorer roads and vehicles. The County is also less rural than communities that are farther from large urban centres. Density relates to how many people live in a community relative to its size. Picton has a high population density and therefore is considered urban rather than rural. Obviously the County as a whole has a much lower density that reflects a distinctly rural character. Different approaches to defining rural for planning purposes are presented in Appendix D. How rural are we? County Wide One definition used by Statistics Canada stipulates that an area is rural if it has a density of less than 150 persons per square kilometre. This includes the individuals living in the countryside, towns and small cities (inside and outside the commuting zone of larger urban centres). Based on the Statistics Canada population estimate for 2011 of 26,260 and Prince Edward s area of 1,040 square kilometres, the density of Prince Edward is persons per square kilometer. In comparison, the densities for 2006, 2001, 1996 and 1991 are respectively: 24.3, 23.7, 23.9 and Prince Edward, therefore, is a highly rural area in terms of density, and even with considerable growth it will remain so in the foreseeable future. 24

26 1.5.2 By Ward Ward population densities for 1996 and 2006 are shown in Table 6, Appendix B. Key findings for 2006 are: Picton has by far the highest density, although it has decreased over that past decade: 949 persons/km 2 versus 1,070 persons/km 2 in Bloomfield is a distant second at 348, and is about one-third more dense than Wellington, which ranks third at 268. Ameliasburgh and Hallowell rank fourth at 30 and fifth at 23, with about one-tenth of the density of Wellington. The remaining Wards have similar densities, which are about half that of Ameliasburgh. While Picton had a density decrease from 1996 to 2006, small increases were experienced in all the other wards except Hallowell, which had a small decline Other Communities The densities of Hastings, the reference areas and some major urban centres (in persons per square kilometer) compare to Prince Edward as follows 16 : Hastings is close at 21.8 and Kawartha Lakes is almost equal at Muskoka and Lennox and Addington are just over half at 14.8 and 14.6, while Haliburton is one-sixth at 4.0. Populations of similar size have much lower densities, with Rainy River at 1.4 and Sudbury at 0.6. In leagues of their own are: Toronto at 3,972, Peel at 933 and York at

27 1.6 Population Distribution An important aspect of planning for growth relates to how the population is distributed within the community and signs of change in this pattern. Data for census years from 1991 to 2010 reveals the following about how population is distributed in the County North to South Thirty-four percent of the population is located across the north, fifty percent, across the centre (Hillier Wellington Bloomfield Picton Hallowell), and sixteen percent, across the south. As the hub of the County, Picton is within easy reach of at least 16,000 people, or about 62% of the population By Ward Since 1991 the population distribution by ward / pre-amalgamation municipality has remained relatively constant as illustrated by Figure 6. Ameliasburgh has the largest share and Bloomfield the smallest. 26

28 1.7 Development Distribution Ontario municipalities report annually to the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing on the number of new lots, blocks and/or units with final approval. Prince Edward s data for 2001 to 2010 shows that the majority of development activity has occurred outside of the settlement areas. This is illustrated by Figure 7. Outside of settlements, new lots are created by consent to sever rather than by an approved plan of subdivision as is typical of the main settlements, Picton and Wellington. The percent of consents by Ward since 1993 is illustrated by Figure 7a. 27

29 Figure 7a shows that the top three Wards for new lot creation by consent are Ameliasburgh, Hallowell and Sophiasburgh. This severance activity is reflected in municipal data for new home building permits, as illustrated by Figure 8 and tabulated in Appendix C. The data shows that for the period 2004 to 2010: Ameliasburgh ranks first in share of new home building permits; Hallowell and Sophiasburgh rank third and fourth; Wellington, a main settlement, ranks second; and Picton, the largest settlement, ranks a distant eighth, indicating that although it is considered the hub of the County, Picton has a relatively low level of new home construction. 28

30 1.8 Non-Permanent Residents The Municipal Property Assessment Corporation estimates that in 2010 Prince Edward had 5,767 non-permanent residents, for a combined population of 32,017 people. According to MPAC, non-permanent residents are distributed as shown by Figure 9. A substantial portion of these people reside in homes that they own. Statistics Canada reports that the percentage of Canadian households who own second homes changed only slightly from 1977 to 1999, and that the rate in Ontario is close to the Canadian average of 7%. Who owns a vacation home? Statistics Canada reports as follows 18 : Nine out of 10 vacation homes are owned by urban households. The average age of an owner is 52 years. 26% belong to households with children and 22% belong to seniors. 52% are owned by couples without children and other household types. 29

31 High income and wealth are strong indicators of vacation home ownership. The 2006 Census shows the County with 12,055 private dwellings, of which 10,319 are occupied by permanent residents. The remaining 1,736 dwellings, or 14%, are occupied by foreign and/or temporary residents or are unoccupied. It is likely that a large portion of these are owner-occupied vacation homes. If it is assumed that 70% of non-permanent residents own vacation homes (rather than rent) and the average household size is 2 persons, the MPAC count of 5,767 non-permanent residents in 2010 could translate into some 2,000 vacation homes. This is equivalent to the number of homes in two Wellingtons. How does Prince Edward compare? Prince Edward s rate of 14% for non-permanent occupancy and vacancy is significantly higher than Ontario s 8.4%, close to Lennox and Addington s 13.6%, and equal to Timiskaming s 14%. The remaining reference areas have much higher rates: Haliburton 67.2%, Manitoulin 42.2%, Rainy River 20.7% and Sudbury 26.2%. As with Haliburton, other cottage-country type areas have much higher proportions of dwellings with non-permanent occupants or no occupants than Prince Edward: Kawartha Lakes 22.3%, Muskoka 48.1% and Parry Sound 51.6%. 30

32 2.0 POPULATION 2011 to 2031 How does Prince Edward fit with the trends? The Ministry of Finance publication titled Ontario Population Projections Update presents annual projections based on Statistics Canada permanent population estimates for 2009 and recent trends in fertility, mortality and migration 20. Five key demographic trends are identified 21 : 1. population growth will be healthy but the pace will moderate; 2. immigration will account for a predominant and rising share of population growth; 3. seniors will make up a much larger share of the population; 4. working-age population growth will slow; and 5. large urban centres will experience the fastest rate of population growth. 2.1 Prince Edward s Population Count More, but Less than Before According to Ministry of Finance projections, by 2031 Prince Edward s permanent population is expected to reach 28,280. This increase of 2,020 people is 80% of the growth that occurred over the past 20 years. Of note: Prince Edward s population will remain the fifth smallest of Ontario s 49 census divisions, ahead of Haliburton, Manitoulin, Sudbury and Rainy River. 2.2 Growth Rates Low by Most Comparisons Twenty-Year Rate Prince Edward s expected population increase of 2,020 means a 20-year increase of 7.7%, a significant drop from 10.5% over the past 20 years. To put this in context, MOF projections for census divisions throughout Ontario show: 31

33 Prince Edward will grow at a fraction of the rate of Eastern Ontario, Central Ontario (excluding the GTA) and Ontario: 7.7% versus 21.3%, 25.1% and 26.7%. Prince Edward will grow at a fraction of the rate of Haliburton at 26.8%, Muskoka at 24.6%, and Kawartha Lakes at 17.7%. Prince Edward will grow at a similar rate to Kenora at 8.0%, Lennox and Addington at 6.7%, and Manitoulin at 6.4%. Prince Edward will grow at a much higher rate than the remaining reference areas: Timiskaming at 0.0%, Rainy River at -5.6%, and Sudbury at -0.1%. MOF projections also show that the pace of growth in neighbouring counties is expected to slow more than in Prince Edward: Hastings will drop from 18.1% to 11.4%, and Lennox and Addington, from 14.2% to 6.7%. The remaining reference areas will also lose momentum, except for Haliburton. Hot Spots in Ontario Major growth is projected for large urban areas: Halton 90%, Peel 71%, York 66%, Durham 63%, Simcoe 56%, and Ottawa 43%. Modest by comparison is the heavily built up Toronto area with a growth rate of 22% Five-Year Rates Prince Edward s 5-year rates of growth will follow a pattern of decrease to the year 2016, increase to 2026, and then decrease to 2036; Ontario s 5-year rates will be much higher, but will also decrease after 2026 (see Table 8, Appendix B). These growth patterns partly reflect the passing of baby boomers through their senior years. Also, for Prince Edward in-migration will be key to growth and for Ontario immigration will continue to be important. Figure 10 illustrates the growth patterns for the County and Ontario. 32

34 2.3 Growth Factors Natural Increase or Decrease According to the MOF Projections Update, for the province as a whole the share of population growth resulting from natural increase (births minus deaths) is expected to remain fairly stable at about 35% until the early 2020s, decreasing rapidly thereafter to reach 22% by When determining projections for census divisions, the MOF uses fertility and mortality rates that are specific to each division. Unlike the situation for the whole province, in Prince Edward natural increase will be negative: Natural decline resulting from more deaths than births is expected to have an increasing negative impact on population growth up to 2036 due to the County s uncommon age structure, in particular, progressively higher proportions of older adults. The GTA is expected to remain the region with the youngest age structure as a result of strong international migration and positive natural increase

35 2.3.2 Net Migration The MOF does not provide projections for this population growth factor on a census division basis. However, the predicted declining pace of growth for the County might suggest that less migration is expected from within the province. Of note is that comparable areas like Haliburton and Kawartha Lakes show strong growth despite the aging trend. 2.4 Demographic Changes Median Age The aging of Prince Edward s population will accelerate, with the median age estimated to rise from 48 years in 2009 to 59 years in Aging throughout Ontario will also accelerate, but at a much lower rate, with the provincial median age projected to rise from 39 years in 2009 to 43 years in Age Structure Seniors Rising Baby boomers will swell the ranks of seniors throughout Ontario. From 2009 to 2036 the number of people age 65 and over is projected to increase from 13.7% to 23.4% of the population 23. We can get an idea of how this will impact our social character from the fact that by 2018, for the very first time, seniors will account for a larger share of population than children under 15 (16.7% versus 16.3%). By 2036 children will have decreased by a further 0.4% whereas seniors will have increased by another 6.7%. This increase will come at the expense of working age people. Among census divisions, the share of seniors is projected to range from a low of 18.0% in Peel to a high of 42.0% in Prince Edward 24, up from 22.6% in This means that Prince Edward s seniors count will increase from 5,920 to 12,080. The social impact can be described as follows: In 2009 Prince Edward seniors outnumbered children under 15 by nearly 2 to 1, and slightly outnumbered adults age 20 to 40 by a little over 1 to 1. 34

36 By 2036 the ratio of seniors to children will increase to nearly 5 to 1, and to adults age 20 to 40, to a little over 3 to 1. Where are the kids? In 2009 Haliburton had the lowest share of children at 11.6% followed by Prince Edward at 11.7%. Kenora had the highest share of children at 22.0%. By 2036, Kenora is projected to still have the highest share at 20.0%, followed by York at 19.7%, and Peel at 18.4%. Most census divisions are projected to see only a small decrease in the share of children from 2009 to Even Haliburton will only drop by 1%. This is not the case for Prince Edward: By 2036 the County will replace Haliburton as the census division with the lowest share of children at 9.5%. Where are the workers? The work force is predominately made up of people ages 15 to 64. In 2009 Toronto had the highest share of people in this age group at 71.0%, while Haliburton had the lowest at 64.0%. In 2036 Toronto is expected to still be tops at 64.3% while: Prince Edward and Haliburton will be the only two census divisions with less that 50% of the population between ages 15 and 64. Prince Edward will have less people in every age group under 65. In contrast, Ontario will have more people in every age group under 65. Prince Edward s structural shift towards older age groups is illustrated by Figure

37 2.4.3 Age Group In Prince Edward, the MOF Projections Update shows that for the planning period of 2011 to 2031, most age groups under 60 are expected to have a major decline in number and the remainder, to have little change. This is shown by Figure 12. As shown by Figure 13, all age groups over 60 are expected to have a major increase in number, with the greatest percentage increase at age

38 37

39 2.5 Non-Permanent Residents As noted in section 1.7 of this paper, Statistics Canada reports that the percentage of Canadian households who own second homes changed only slightly from 1977 to 1999, and that the rate in Ontario is close to the Canadian average of 7%. If this rate persists, the County s non-permanent resident population could grow in relation to Ontario s population growth. 2.6 Residential Land Requirements As discussed in section 1.5.1, Prince Edward has a very low population density because it is a large, predominantly rural municipality with a small population. Thus, on a macro scale the projected increase in population will have minimal impact on land in the County. Given that much of the future growth is by policy intended for the main settlement areas, it is necessary to assess their ability to accommodate what is projected. Using Prince Edward s average household size of 2.18 people per unit 25 and the County s projected growth of 2,020 people, some 900 more dwellings could be required by Recently the Secondary Plans Project has determined that well over 2,000 new dwellings could be reasonably accommodated in Picton- Hallowell and Wellington 26. Accordingly, it is safe to conclude that there is more than sufficient residential land available in these two settlements alone to accommodate even unexpectedly high population growth in the foreseeable future. The accommodation of residential and non-residential growth will be discussed further in separate Issues Papers on settlement areas and rural areas. 38

40 3.0 EMPLOYMENT CHANGES In municipal planning an important element of long-term change is local economic growth and its impacts on land, infrastructure and services. A community s economic health can be assessed by examining various aspects of the employment situation, as outlined in the following sections. From this assessment it is clear that economic growth will continue to be a challenge in Prince Edward. 3.1 Labour Force The growth rate of the labour force is a core factor in determining long-term economic growth potential in Ontario and its regions 27. As discussed in section 2.4.2, all age groups making up Prince Edward s labour force, except ages 60 to 64, are expected to decrease in number over the next 20 years. This factor, together with a relatively low growth rate in the recent past, will be a challenge for the local economy. According to the Census, Prince Edward had a labour force 28 of 12,570 in 2006, up by 850 or 7.3% from This is significantly below Ontario s growth rate of 9.9%. In 2006 Prince Edward s employed labour force 29 was 11,810, up by 710 people or 6.4% from Ontario s comparable growth rate was 7.9%. Prince Edward s growth in employed labour force was also significantly lower than that of Hastings at 8.8% and Northumberland at 7.2%, and was less than half of Haliburton at 15.9%. All the other reference areas had lower growth than Prince Edward: Lennox and Addington 5.6%, Manitoulin 2.5%, Rainy River 2.1%, Sudbury 3.9%, and Timiskaming 1.7%. 3.2 Participation Rate A related measure of employment growth is based on the percent of the working age population that actively participates in the labour force through a job. Working age is defined as people age 15 years and over, excluding institutional residents. Census data shows: 39

41 Prince Edward s participation rate rose only slightly from 2006 to 2001: 59% versus 58.4%. The County s 2006 participation rate is much lower than the provincial rate: PEC 59% versus ON 67.1%. Prince Edward s 2006 participation rate is also below that of its neighbours: Lennox and Addington 62.9%, Hastings 61.9%, and Northumberland 61.4%. All the reference areas are below the provincial rate: Haliburton 54.5%, Manitoulin 55.8%, Rainy River 64.2%, Sudbury 56.6%, and Timiskaming 58.5%. According to the Ministry of Finance, the overall labour force participation rate is expected to fall as a growing proportion of the total population grows older and has weaker labour-force attachment. This decline is expected to be partially offset by more people continuing to work past age Earnings Another way to view the County s employment situation is through the median earnings of the working age population who worked full time for a full year, particularly as it compares to other communities. According to census data 30 : The County s median earnings figure in 2005 was much lower than that of Ontario: $35,363 versus $44,748. All of Ontario s 49 census divisions had higher median earnings than Prince Edward except for two: Haliburton at $32,709 and Manitoulin at $33,995. The other reference areas compare as follows: Hastings $37,619, Lennox and Addington $41,922, Rainy River $44,702, Sudbury $44,148, and Timiskaming $39,485. The medium earnings of some highly populated areas are much higher than the highest of the reference areas, including Ottawa at $52,635, Durham at $49,823, and York at $48,943; others are very close, such as Toronto at $43,291 and Peel at $44,

42 Figure 14 illustrates this median earnings data. 3.4 Unpaid Work The 2006 Census reveals the following about unpaid work in Prince Edward: The percentage of the working age population who reported hours looking after children without pay is much lower than the provincial percentage (34.6% versus 41.6%). The percentage of the working age population who reported hours of unpaid care or assistance to seniors is higher than the provincial percentage (22.6% versus 20.5%). 3.5 Occupation The County s employment situation may also be considered in terms of the occupations that make up the experienced labour force. Of note is that despite its strong agricultural landscape, Prince Edward s 41

43 jobscape is mostly non-agricultural, as shown by the following Statistics Canada graph based on 2006 Census occupation data 31 : Statistics Canada reports as follows on jobs, by occupation, in Prince Edward (PEC) and Ontario (ON): Sales and service make up the largest percentage of jobs in PEC at 23% and ON is almost equal at 23.5%. Trades, transport and equipment operator are a distant second in PEC at 15.6% and third in ON at 14.1%. Business, finance and administration are third in PEC at 13% and second in ON at 18.6%. Social science, education, government services and religion are fourth in PEC at 9.3% and fifth in ON at 8.4%. Management is a close fifth in PEC at 9.1% and fourth in ON at 10.3%. Primary industry like agriculture is sixth in PEC at 8.6% and last in ON at 2.6%. Health in PEC is 7% and in ON 5.3%. Processing, manufacturing and utilities in PEC are 6.3% and ON 7.2%. Natural and applied sciences in PEC are 4.1% and ON 7%. 42

44 Art, culture, recreation and sport in PEC are 4% and ON 3.1%. When the 2006 results are compared to the 2001 Census results, the following changes are evident in the County: All occupation groups grew except for three: primary industries like farming, which declined by 14.5%; management, which declined by 7%; and sales and service which declined by 2.3%. The greatest growth rate occurred in art, culture, recreation and sport, which increased by 45.5%, followed by social science, education, government service and religion with 26.4% growth, health with 16.1% growth, and business, finance and administration with 15.5% growth. The greatest number of jobs were added in social science, education, government service and religion, totaling 305 new jobs, followed by business, finance and administration, totaling 250 jobs, and then art, culture, recreation and sport, totaling 225 jobs. The foregoing changes reflect certain trends in Ontario s labour market, where employment has shifted from goods-producing to service-producting industries, particularly business, building and other support services and professional, scientific and technical services industries 32. This trend is evident across Canada and in many other countries. OECD data for predominantly rural regions around the world shows that the proportion of the workforce employed in agriculture has been decreasing since at least 1980, and by 2001 it had fallen to only 9 percent Knowledge and Skills Economic growth relies on a knowledgeable and skilled labour force. The Canada Census provides data for the educational aspect of this growth factor. In 2006 Prince Edward s core working age population (ages 25 to 64) totaled 13,325, and had to following levels of educational attainment as measured by the number of people and percent of the total. The comparable percent for Ontario is also shown. 43

45 No certificate, diploma or degree: PEC 1,905 or 14.3% vs. ON 13.6%; High school certificate or equivalent: PEC 3,610 or 27.1% vs. ON 25.0%; Apprenticeship or trades certificate or diploma: PEC 1,330 or 10.0% vs. ON 8.8%; College or other non-university certificate or diploma: PEC 3,750 or 28.1% vs. ON 22%; University certificate or diploma below the bachelor level: PEC 440 or 3.3% vs. ON 4.7%; and University certificate, diploma or degree: 2,285 or 17.1% vs. ON 26.0%. Figure 15 illustrates the educational data for Prince Edward and Ontario. Of note is that 41.4% of the County s core working age population has a high school education or less, as compared to 38.6% in Ontario. However, the County compares favourably to its neighbours: Hastings 48.6%, Lennox and Addington 45.8%, and Northumberland 45.6%. 44