HEMSON GROWTH FORECAST

Transcription

1 GROWTH FORECASTS

2 17 III GROWTH FORECAST This section provides the basis for the growth forecasts used in calculating the development charges and provides a summary of the forecast results. The growth forecast in the development charges background study is based on the estimates of growth that is expected to occur within the City s current boundaries. Brantford s 2008 Census population is estimated at 92,317 with an estimated employment of 46,187. The City s population is forecast to grow by 11,412 in the 10- year planning period from 2009 to Population growth forecast in new households is higher at 15,480 due to the declining occupancy levels in existing housing units. Employment is expected to grow by 6,840 over the 10-year forecast period. Population and employment projections were also prepared to build-out which is assumed to be The development charges population forecast projects the City s 2031 Census population to be 121,070. This represents growth of 28,750 people from the 2008 population. Population growth in new units is estimated at 36,990. Taking Census under-coverage (approximately 4 per cent) into consideration, the forecast 2031 population is approximately 126,000. This population number matches the value approved by the Province as part of Official Plan Amendment No Employment is expected to reach 59,280 in 2031, an increase of 13,100 when compared to 2008 employment. Projected 2031 employment is higher than the OPA No. 125 employment number of 53,000. The development charges employment forecast contains higher activity levels throughout the forecast and reflects the City s continued role as the urban centre of the local economic region. Table 1 provides a summary of the residential and non-residential growth forecasts used in this analysis.

3 18 TABLE 1 CITY OF BRANTFORD 2009 DEVELOPMENT CHARGES STUDY RESIDENTIAL AND NON-RESIDENTIAL GROWTH FORECAST 2008 Estimate Growth Total Growth Total Households 38,176 5,971 44,147 14,807 52,984 Population Census 92,317 11, ,729 28, ,070 With Undercount 96,000 11, ,900 30, ,000 In New Households 15,479 36, Estimate Growth Total Growth Total Employment 46,187 6,837 53,025 13,093 59,280 Non-Residential Building Space (sq.m.) 399, ,668

4 49 APPENDIX A GROWTH FORECAST

5 50 APPENDIX A RESIDENTIAL AND NON-RESIDENTIAL GROWTH FORECAST This appendix provides the details of the growth forecast used in the preparation of the Development Charges Background Study for the City of Brantford. The forecast described herein is consistent with governing legislation and represents a best estimate of the amount and type of development that is likely to occur in the City from 2009 to This development charges growth forecast is based on estimates of growth occurring within the City s existing boundary. This is consistent with Provincial regulations that require development charges forecasts be based on development areas approved in a municipality s official plan. The population and employment forecasts contained herein are within the combined Growth Plan targets for the City of Brantford and the County of Brant. When allocations between the two jurisdictions are considered, the development charges population forecast is similar to the provincial target for 2031 with the development charges employment forecast being slightly higher. 1 The development charges employment forecast contains higher activity levels throughout the forecast and reflects the City s continued role as the urban centre of the local economic region. In general, future residential unit growth projected in this study is forecast to be denser than levels experienced over the last ten years. This is a product of provincial and municipal policies aimed at promoting intensification and the City being relatively constrained within its current boundary. This growth forecast appendix begins with a brief discussion of recent development activity. This is followed by more detailed methodological discussion of the residential growth forecast. The final section describes the employment and non-residential space forecast. 1 City of Brantford Official Plan Section 4.1 (OPA No. 125 as approved by the Province)

6 51 A. RECENT DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY Growth in Brantford has largely been driven by the City s strategic location. In addition to having a wide range of urban amenities and employment opportunities itself, the City is centrally located along the Highway 403 corridor providing easy access to other centres such as Hamilton, Kitchener-Waterloo, and the Greater Toronto Area. The City is surrounded by the single-tier County of Brant. The City and County have joint responsibility for some services and are sometimes combined for statistical purposes. Following a slowdown in the late 1990s and early 2000s population growth has been occurring at a relatively steady pace while employment is growing at a slightly faster rate than population. Recent growth in both sectors was fuelled by a strong Southern Ontario economy and continued migration into the larger Greater Golden Horseshoe region. 1. Historic Growth Methodology Historic growth numbers presented in this report are based on Statistics Canada Census data. The forthcoming population numbers do not include Census under coverage which typically understates actual population by 4 per cent. First Nations lands are not included in Brantford s Census numbers but the First Nations population residing in the City of Brantford is included. The ten year historic period used in the Development Charges Study is from Since 2006 was the date of the last Census, values for 2007 and 2008 are estimated. Total employment numbers used in the historic tables are based on Statistics Canada Place of Work data. Place of Work employment numbers are premised on where someone works rather than their place of residence. Employment with no fixed place of work is distributed to account for workers without fixed workplace addresses who live in smaller municipalities neighbouring Brantford but who work primarily within the City of Brantford.

7 52 2. Growth in Population and Housing Units has been Steady (Tables 1-2) Brantford s population and housing growth has occurred at a relatively stable pace over the last ten years. Table1 City of Brantford Historic Residential Growth Summary by Census Year Total Households Year Households Growth Annual Growth Rate Population ,460 82,000 Total Census Population Growth Annual Growth Rate ,270 1, % 84,760 2, % ,880 2, % 86,420 1, % ,960 2, % 90,190 3, % Source: Statistics Canada, 1991, 1996, 2001, 2006 Census Between 1991 and 2006 the City added 6,500 housing units and the City s population increased by 8,200 people. The annual housing growth rate has consistently been around 1.2 to 1.6 per cent per year while the population growth rate has been slightly less as the result of the decline in the average number of persons residing in dwelling units. The City s Census population was 90,192 in As illustrated in Table 2, from 1999 to 2008 just under 4,900 household units were added while the City s population increased by approximately 6,900 people. Of particular note, growth in rows and other multiple units has been strong over the last ten years as the City s supply of these dwelling types has increased by 24 per cent. During this same ten year period the City s supply of single and semi detached units and apartment units has grown by 13 per cent and 15 per cent respectively. As of 2008, single and semi detached units represent about 67 per cent of the City s total housing stock, rows and other multiples 8 per cent and apartments 25 per cent. 3. Average Brantford Household has 2.48 Persons Per Unit (Table 3) Occupancy levels for single and semi detached, row and other multiple and apartment units in Brantford are provided in Table 3. The overall average occupancy level in Brantford is 2.48 persons per unit (PPU) which is slightly less than the Ontario average of For housing units built between 1996 and 2006 the occupancy level is higher at The persons per unit values used in the development charges have been slightly

8 53 APPENDIX A - TABLE 2 CITY OF BRANTFORD HISTORIC POPULATION, HOUSEHOLDS, AND BUILDING PERMITS Population Total Population 85,752 86,084 86,417 87,159 87,908 88,663 89,424 90,192 91,249 92,317 Population Growth ,057 1,069 6,896 Population Growth % 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.2% 1.2% 8% Total Households Singles/Semis 22,639 22,807 22,977 23,313 23,655 24,001 24,353 24,709 25,101 25,500 Rows/Other Multiples 2,622 2,696 2,772 2,814 2,857 2,900 2,945 2,989 3,077 3,168 Apartments 8,539 8,830 9,132 9,159 9,185 9,211 9,238 9,264 9,385 9,508 Total Households 33,800 34,334 34,881 35,286 35,697 36,113 36,535 36,963 37,564 38,176 Shares of Total Households Singles/Semis 67% 66% 66% 66% 66% 66% 67% 67% 67% 67% Rows/Other Multiples 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% Apartments 25% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 25% 25% 25% 25% Household Growth Singles/Semis ,028 Rows/Other Multiples Apartments ,252 Total Household Growth ,897 Household Growth % Singles/Semis 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 13% Rows/Other Multiples 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 2.9% 2.9% 24% Apartments 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 1.3% 1.3% 15% Total Household Growth % 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.6% 1.6% 15% Shares of Household Growth Singles/Semis 32% 32% 31% 83% 83% 83% 83% 83% 65% 65% 62% Rows/Other Multiples 14% 14% 14% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 15% 15% 13% Apartments 54% 55% 55% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 20% 20% 26% Residential Building Permits Single/Semis ,074 Rows Apartments (incl. conversions) Retirement Units Total ,457 Average Household Size Source: Statistics Canada 1996, 2001, 2006 Census, City of Brantford Building Department, Hemson Projections

9 54 APPENDIX A - TABLE 3 CITY OF BRANTFORD HOUSEHOLD SIZE BY UNIT TYPE AND PERIOD OF CONSTRUCTION Pre Pre Total Singles/Semis Household population 13,885 12,315 7,095 10,330 2,965 5,810 4,170 3,440 5,345 56,570 8,785 65,355 Households 5,655 4,970 2,735 3, ,815 1,300 1,090 1,715 21,000 2,805 23,805 Household Size (PPU) Rows Household population , ,030 1, , ,630 Households , ,880 Household Size (PPU) Apartments Household population 4,605 1,995 2,715 3, , ,390 Households 2,450 1,185 1,630 2, , ,925 Household Size (PPU) All Units Household population 18,820 14,565 10,640 16,150 4,705 7,530 6,135 3,870 5,960 78,545 9,830 88,375 Households 8,205 6,255 4,685 6,380 1,895 2,575 2,185 1,355 2,075 32,180 3,430 35,610 Household Size (PPU) Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census Special Run

10 55 adjusted from the most recent ten year average. The PPU value used in the development charges calculation for single and semi detached units is 3.07 which is slightly less than the Census 10-year average of 3.13 illustrated in Table 3. The values for rows has been adjusted from a average of 1.7 upwards to 2.1. This adjustment was necessary as there has been an atypical amount of small, single storey row units built during the period and these units tend to have lower occupancy levels. When examining the total supply of row units in Brantford the PPU is much higher (2.65). As future growth in row units is expected to be a blend of both small, single storey units and larger, more traditional units, a PPU value of 2.0 is used in the development charges study. The PPU value used for apartments is 1.5 in total, or 1.6 for large units and 1.2 for small units. This is consistent with the recent 10-year Census average. 4. Brantford s Recent Employment Growth has been Strong (Tables 4 5) The City of Brantford has experienced strong employment growth over the past decade following the recession in the early 1990s. Table 4 City of Brantford Historic Employment Growth Summary by Census Year Year Employment Growth Annual Growth Rate Activity Rate , % , % 45.2% ,360 3, % 47.9% ,810 3, % 49.7% Source: Statistics Canada, 1991, 1996, 2001, 2006 Census with Hemson Adjustment Between 1991 and 2006, employment in Brantford has increased by 5,740 employees. Employment growth in recent years has been particularly strong. Between 2001 and 2006 employment growth was around 1.6 per cent annually. Brantford s total employment in 2006 was approximately 44,800. Since employment growth has exceeded population growth, Brantford s activity rate has increased to almost 50 per cent in Table 5 provides an assessment of Brantford s recent employment growth separated into four categories: commercial/retail/professional office employment, institutional employment, work at home employment and employment lands employment. The first three categories are all forms of population-related employment. A majority of Brantford s employment growth has occurred on employment lands. In fact, employment in this category, which includes distribution centres, manufacturing operations and associated offices, has accounted for 37 per cent of all employment

11 56 APPENDIX A - TABLE 5 CITY OF BRANTFORD HISTORIC EMPLOYMENT Total Employment Commercial/Retail/Professional Office 12,672 13,062 13,464 13,686 13,912 14,142 14,375 14,612 14,804 14,999 Institutional 8,536 8,674 8,814 8,992 9,174 9,359 9,548 9,741 9,936 10,134 Work at Home 1,605 1,683 1,765 1,813 1,863 1,914 1,966 2,020 2,051 2,083 Employment Lands Employment 16,373 16,836 17,311 17,531 17,753 17,978 18,206 18,437 18,702 18,971 Total Employment 39,187 40,255 41,355 42,023 42,702 43,393 44,096 44,810 45,493 46,187 Shares of Total Employment Commercial/Retail/Professional Office 32% 32% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 32% Institutional 22% 22% 21% 21% 21% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% Work at Home 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% Employment Lands Employment 42% 42% 42% 42% 42% 41% 41% 41% 41% 41% Employment Growth Commercial/Retail/Professional Office ,705 Institutional ,734 Work at Home Employment Lands Employment ,047 Total Employment Growth 1,038 1,068 1, ,038 Employment Growth % Commercial/Retail/Professional Office 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 22% Institutional 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 21% Work at Home 5% 5% 5% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 7% Employment Lands Employment 3% 3% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 19% Total Employment Growth % 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 21% Shares of Employment Growth Commercial/Retail/Professional Office 36% 37% 37% 33% 33% 33% 33% 33% 28% 28% 34% Institutional 13% 13% 13% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27% 28% 29% 22% Work at Home 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 5% 5% 7% Employment Lands Employment 43% 43% 43% 33% 33% 33% 32% 32% 39% 39% 38% Total Employment Growth Commercial/Retail/Professional Office ,705 Institutional ,734 Work at Home Employment Lands Employment ,047 Total Employment Growth 1,038 1,068 1, ,038 Activity Rate 46% 47% 48% 48% 49% 49% 49% 50% 50% 50% Source: Statistics Canada 1996, 2001, 2006 Census, Hemson Projections

12 57 growth or 2,500 employees between 1999 and This growth has largely occurred along the 403 corridor at the eastern and western parts of the City. There has also been significant growth in commercial/retail/professional office category over the last several years. Retail stores, restaurants, and private sector office space would all fall into this category. Between 1999 and 2008 approximately 2,300 employees were added in this category or 34 per cent of the total employment growth. New retail stores have created a significant number of new jobs; additionally, investment has also occurred in smaller buildings in the downtown area of the City. Institutional employment includes most workers in the government, education and health sectors. Approximately 1,500 employees were added to this category over the last 10 years which is 22 per cent of total employment growth. Investments by universities have likely been responsible for a significant portion of growth in this sector. Wilfred Laurier Brantford first opened in 1999 now has approximately 100 direct staff alone. Nipissing University has also made significant investments in Brantford as well. Work at home employment has also increased slightly over the last 10 years. B. RESIDENTIAL FORECAST REFLECTS DEMAND AND SUPPLY FACTORS The residential and non-residential growth forecasts used in this development charges study is based on several demand and supply factors. The methodology used to develop the forecast is described herein. 1. Demand Factors Housing and non-residential space demand is largely driven by non-local factors. The City of Brantford is part of the larger Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) region and growth in the larger region is largely the result of migration. Over the past 20 years migration has come to represent the largest share of population growth throughout Ontario. Levels of natural increase continue to decline and in many areas are now negative. This is due to the decrease in fertility rates and the general aging of the population. In addition the baby boom population is now beyond its child bearing years. While Brantford may not receive as many immigrants as other areas of the GGH, immigration and migration from other areas of the southern Ontario is likely to drive a majority of Brantford s population growth. As indicated in Brantford s Residential Monitoring Report, 2007 and the City s Growth Management Strategy, Brantford has comparatively less expensive housing than other neighbouring centres, specifically Hamilton. Less expensive housing has helped

13 58 drive low-density housing growth in Brantford in recent years and this is expected to continue for the foreseeable future. Price (and rental rates) is also an important factor driving high density housing. However, institutional investments related to post secondary education have also increased demand for higher density units in the downtown area. More bachelor and one bedroom units in particular are likely to be built as more students attend post secondary school in Brantford. Besides the factors above, macro-economic factors will also have an impact on future growth in Brantford. Currently, most of the industrialized world is experiencing an economic slowdown. The Canadian economy has been affected by the slowdown but to date not as severely as the United States and some other counties. However, the Ontario manufacturing sector has been particularly hard hit which is likely to affect Brantford and other municipalities in south-western part of the Province. The Canadian housing market had remained strong until very recently and has now started to slow. The housing market turmoil seen in the United States is not anticipated here in Canada, but there is a significant cyclical housing market correction occurring. While the 2009 and 2010 households unit and employment forecast numbers may not be achieved as a result of the economic downturn, it is important to note that this is a long term forecast and the slower growth in the next few years can be easily made up over the course of the forecast. Building permit data from 2008 suggests that number of residential building permits dropped by 85 units or 16% between 2007 and This variance is generally expected given the economy and supply factors. However, the reduction is lower than many other municipalities. 2. Supply Factors The supply side of the forecast is largely a product of the availability of serviced land for development. The supply of low-density residential land in Brantford has become particularly scarce. If a similar number of single and semi detached units were built to what has occurred over the last few years, the City estimates their low density land supply would run out in less than 10 years (Residential Monitoring Report, 2007). The supply of medium and higher density land is not as limited but servicing constraints exist on some of that land. The forecast population and household numbers in this report are based on an initial new unit mix of approximately 65 per cent singles and semis, 15 per cent rows and other multiples and 20 per cent apartments. By 2031 the forecast shares of new unit growth is forecast to be 45 per cent singles and semis, 30 per cent rows and other

14 59 multiples and 25 per cent apartments. This breakdown is similar to the shares used by the City of Brantford in Official Plan Amendment No. 125 to conform to Growth Plan targets. If the unit mix was to proceed with more low density units than forecast, the City would likely run out of land well before the end of the forecast period. Most low density growth is expected to occur on greenfield land in the southwest and northwest part of the City. A smaller amount of greenfield land also exists in the east and south. Higher density development will occur throughout the City but a large portion of it will be infill. The availability of land will also restrict employment growth. The City has less than 870 acres of net employment land available for growth in its Northwest and Braneida industrial areas. The Growth Management Study, 2006 estimated that the remaining employment land could support about 6,800 employees at 22 per net ha. With recent absorption of land, we forecast 5,100 additional employees could work on employment lands to This implies the average lot coverage would be over 50 per cent, a relatively high coverage. Employment growth in the other categories is expected to be located in both greenfield and existing urban areas. Population-related employment was estimated using the City s future activity rate. The City s activity rate is forecast to peak at around 51 per cent in 2016 and then decline to 49 per cent in This decline is a result of the aging of the population. Some development sites in the City of Brantford have been affected by actions taken by Six Nations groups. Although long term actions would unquestionably have an impact on future residential and non-residential growth, the forthcoming forecasts assume issues will be resolved in the near term. The combination of macro and local factors will likely result in lower than normal growth in 2009 and However, Brantford experienced significant growth in 2006 and 2007 and growth will likely rebound by C. FORECAST OF RESIDENTIAL UNITS BY STRUCTURE TYPE USED TO DISTRIBUTE POPULATION GROWTH The residential unit and population forecast for the City is based on the forecast unit supply and demand of three unit structure types: singles and semis; rows and other multiples; and apartments. The attached series of tables provide all of the assumptions and results for the forecasts. The purpose of each table and key assumptions are provided in the descriptions below:

15 60 1. Forecast of Households and Population (Tables 6 9) The City of Brantford is expected to grow throughout each census period. Table 6 City of Brantford Residential Growth Forecast Summary by Census Year Total Households Year Households Growth Total Census Population Annual Growth Rate Population Growth ,960 90,190 Annual Growth Rate ,080 3, % 95,600 5, % ,860 2, % 101,340 5, % ,170 3, % 107,420 6, % ,320 3, % 113,970 6, % ,980 3, % 121,070 7, % Source: Hemson Projections Table 7 provides details of the city-wide household, population and population in new units forecast from 2009 to Ultimate development for the purposes of this development charges study is Table 8 details housing unit growth for singles and semis, rows and other multiples and apartments. In the initial 10-year development charges forecast period from , which applies to soft services, the City s Census population is forecast to rise from approximately 92,300 in 2008 to 103,700 in The development charges forecast for engineered services is based on growth to ultimate development which is assumed to be The City population at 2031 is estimated to be 121,000. This represents respective increases of 12 per cent and 30 per cent when measured against the 2008 population. The growth in population in new dwelling units over the 10 year planning period is 15,480 and 36,990 to ultimate development. Total households are forecast to increase from approximately 38,200 in 2008 to 44,100 in 2018 and 53,000 at ultimate development. These are increases of 16 per cent and 39 per cent respectively. The higher rate of household growth compared to population growth reflects a decline in occupancy levels expected in existing housing units and a significant shift to higher density development with lower persons per unit.

16 61 APPENDIX A - TABLE 7 CITY OF BRANTFORD FORECAST OF POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLDS Population Total Population 93,399 94,493 95,600 96,721 97,856 99, , , , ,729 Population Growth 1,081 1,094 1,107 1,121 1,134 1,148 1,161 1,175 1,188 1,202 11,412 Population Growth % 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 12% Population in New Units Growth 1,626 1,654 1,682 1,414 1,434 1,455 1,475 1,496 1,607 1,636 15,479 Total Households Singles/Semis 25,904 26,315 26,733 27,085 27,443 27,805 28,171 28,543 28,898 29,258 Rows/Other Multiples 3,261 3,357 3,456 3,536 3,618 3,701 3,787 3,874 4,027 4,186 Apartments 9,633 9,759 9,887 9,996 10,106 10,217 10,330 10,444 10,573 10,704 Total Households 38,798 39,432 40,076 40,617 41,166 41,723 42,288 42,860 43,498 44,147 Shares of Total Households Singles/Semis 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 67% 66% 66% Rows/Other Multiples 8% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% 9% Apartments 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24% Persons Per Unit (PPU) Population Total Population 104, , , , , , , , , , , , ,070 Population Growth 1,216 1,230 1,245 1,279 1,294 1,310 1,325 1,341 1,386 1,403 1,420 1,437 1,455 28,753 Population Growth % 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 31% Population in New Units Growth 1,665 1,695 1,726 1,490 1,512 1,535 1,559 1,583 1,688 1,718 1,749 1,780 1,813 36,993 Total Households Singles/Semis 29,622 29,991 30,364 30,672 30,984 31,299 31,617 31,939 32,262 32,588 32,918 33,251 33,587 Rows/Other Multiples 4,351 4,523 4,702 4,850 5,002 5,160 5,322 5,489 5,693 5,905 6,124 6,352 6,588 Apartments 10,836 10,970 11,106 11,259 11,414 11,572 11,731 11,893 12,071 12,251 12,434 12,620 12,809 Total Households 44,809 45,484 46,171 46,781 47,401 48,031 48,671 49,321 50,026 50,744 51,476 52,223 52,984 Shares of Total Households Singles/Semis 66% 66% 66% 66% 65% 65% 65% 65% 64% 64% 64% 64% 63% Rows/Other Multiples 10% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 12% 12% 12% 12% Apartments 24% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24% 24% Persons Per Unit (PPU) Source: Hemson Projections

17 62 APPENDIX A - TABLE 8 CITY OF BRANTFORD GROWTH IN HOUSEHOLD UNITS Growth in Households Singles/Semis ,758 Rows/Other Multiples ,018 Apartments ,195 Total Growth in Households ,971 Growth in Households % Singles/Semis 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 15% Rows/Other Multiples 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 4% 4% 32% Apartments 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 13% Total Growth in Households 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 16% Shares of New Households Singles/Semis 65% 65% 65% 65% 65% 65% 65% 65% 56% 55% 63% Rows/Other Multiples 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 24% 24% 17% Apartments 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% Growth in Households Singles/Semis ,087 Rows/Other Multiples ,420 Apartments ,301 Total Growth in Households ,807 Growth in Households % Singles/Semis 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 32% Rows/Other Multiples 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 108% Apartments 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 35% Total Growth in Households 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 39% Shares of New Households Singles/Semis 55% 55% 54% 51% 50% 50% 50% 49% 46% 45% 45% 45% 44% 55% Rows/Other Multiples 25% 25% 26% 24% 25% 25% 25% 26% 29% 29% 30% 30% 31% 23% Apartments 20% 20% 20% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 22% Source: Hemson Projections

18 63 APPENDIX A - TABLE 9 PAGE City of Brantford Population by Age and Sex Age Female Male 4,500 3,500 2,500 1, ,500 2,500 3,500 4,500 Population 2011 City of BrantfordEstimated Population byage and Sex Age Female Male 4,500 3,500 2,500 1, ,500 2,500 3,500 4,500 Population

19 64 APPENDIX A - TABLE 9 PAGE City of Brantford Estimated Population by Age and Sex Age Female Male 4,500 3,500 2,500 1, ,500 2,500 3,500 4,500 Population 2031 City of Brantford Estimated Population by Age and Sex Age Female Male 4,500 3,500 2,500 1, ,500 2,500 3,500 4,500 Population

20 65 D. NON-RESIDENTIAL SPACE FORECAST BASED ON THE FORECAST OF EMPLOYMENT (TABLES 10-12) Non-residential development charges are calculated on a per square metre basis. Therefore, as required by the Development Charges Act, a forecast for non-residential building space is provided. Consistent with the residential forecast, the nonresidential building space forecast covers a period from 2009 to ultimate development (2031). The 10-year forecast period ( ) is used for soft services and the forecast to ultimate development is used for engineered services. The non-residential building space used in this study is based on an employment forecast. The forecast of employment in the City is separated into four categories. They are: Commercial/Retail/Professional Office Employment employment scattered throughout the community including most retail, professional and population serving employment; Institutional Employment employment primarily in the government, education and health sectors. Work at Home Employment home based employment that does not require building space. Employment land employment the mix of industrial and some commercial activities occurring in what are typically (but somewhat inaccurately) called industrial areas. The non-residential space forecast prepared for development charges purposes is based on these employment forecasts and described below. Like the housing market, more modest growth is expected in the non-residential space market over the next several years.

21 66 Table 10 City of Brantford Employment Forecast Summary by Census Year Annual Year Employment Growth Growth Rate Activity Rate , % ,330 3, % 50.6% ,890 3, % 51.2% ,780 2, % 51.0% ,170 2, % 50.2% ,280 2, % 49.0% Source: Hemson Projections 1. Commercial/Retail/Professional Office Employment Presently, approximately 15,000 or 33 per cent of the City s 46,000 employees are employed in the commercial/retail category. City-wide commercial/retail/professional office employment is forecast to grow by 13 per cent between 2009 and 2018 to a total of 16,900. Growth in the period following 2017 is expected to be modest with total commercial/retail employment increasing to 18,400 at ultimate development. This forecast resembles the population and household unit forecasts. When converting employment growth to building space a factor of 42 square metres per employee is used. This value is consistent with the City s previous development charges study and is commonly used throughout the province. Over the 10 year planning period , about 79,000 square metres of building space is forecast to be added in this category. Over the period to build-out 141,000 square metres will be added. 2. Institutional Employment In 2008, 10,100 workers or 22 per cent of the City's total employment is employed in the institutional employment category. In the 10 year forecast period Brantford s institutional employment is forecast to increase by 20 per cent to 12,100 employees. At ultimate development 13,900 employees are forecast to be employed in this category which also includes universities, recreation centres and nursing homes. A ratio of 40 square metres of per employee is used in the forecast to estimate future institutional employment space. This reflects the City s propensity to attract urban institutional uses such as University space which is typically in an office format.

22 67 APPENDIX A - TABLE 11 CITY OF BRANTFORD FORECAST OF EMPLOYMENT Total Employment By Type Commercial/Retail/Professional Office 15,197 15,397 15,600 15,792 15,986 16,182 16,381 16,582 16,730 16,879 Institutional 10,337 10,543 10,754 10,955 11,160 11,370 11,583 11,800 11,960 12,121 Work at Home 2,115 2,148 2,181 2,215 2,249 2,284 2,320 2,356 2,392 2,429 Employment Lands Employment 19,243 19,520 19,800 20,063 20,329 20,599 20,873 21,150 21,371 21,595 Total Employment 46,892 47,608 48,335 49,025 49,725 50,435 51,156 51,888 52,453 53,025 Employment Growth % Commercial/Retail/Professional Office 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 0.9% 0.9% 12.5% Institutional 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.4% 1.4% 19.6% Work at Home 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.6% Employment Lands Employment 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 13.8% Total Employment Growth % 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.1% 1.1% 14.8% Shares of Total Employment Commercial/Retail/Professional Office 32.4% 32.3% 32.3% 32.2% 32.1% 32.1% 32.0% 32.0% 31.9% 31.8% Institutional 22.0% 22.1% 22.2% 22.3% 22.4% 22.5% 22.6% 22.7% 22.8% 22.9% Work at Home 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.6% 4.6% Employment Lands Employment 41.0% 41.0% 41.0% 40.9% 40.9% 40.8% 40.8% 40.8% 40.7% 40.7% Total Employment By Type Commercial/Retail/Professional Office 17,029 17,181 17,334 17,442 17,550 17,659 17,769 17,880 17,975 18,070 18,166 18,263 18,360 Institutional 12,285 12,452 12,620 12,755 12,892 13,030 13,169 13,310 13,426 13,543 13,661 13,780 13,900 Work at Home 2,467 2,505 2,544 2,580 2,617 2,654 2,692 2,730 2,767 2,804 2,842 2,881 2,920 Employment Lands Employment 21,821 22,049 22,280 22,471 22,663 22,857 23,053 23,250 23,418 23,586 23,756 23,928 24,100 Total Employment 53,602 54,187 54,778 55,248 55,722 56,200 56,683 57,170 57,585 58,004 58,426 58,851 59,280 Employment Growth % Commercial/Retail/Professional Office 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 22.4% Institutional 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 37.2% Work at Home 1.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 40.2% Employment Lands Employment 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 27.0% Total Employment Growth % 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 28.3% Shares of Total Employment Commercial/Retail/Professional Office 31.8% 31.7% 31.6% 31.6% 31.5% 31.4% 31.3% 31.3% 31.2% 31.2% 31.1% 31.0% 31.0% Institutional 22.9% 23.0% 23.0% 23.1% 23.1% 23.2% 23.2% 23.3% 23.3% 23.3% 23.4% 23.4% 23.4% Work at Home 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% Employment Lands Employment 40.7% 40.7% 40.7% 40.7% 40.7% 40.7% 40.7% 40.7% 40.7% 40.7% 40.7% 40.7% 40.7% Source: Hemson Projections

23 68 APPENDIX A - TABLE 12 CITY OF BRANTFORD FORECAST OF EMPLOYMENT AND NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING SPACE GROWTH Growth in Employment By Type Commercial/Retail/Professional Office ,879 Institutional ,987 Work at Home Employment Lands Employment ,624 Growth in Total Employment ,837 Shares of Employment Growth Commercial/Retail/Professional Office 28.0% 28.0% 27.9% 27.8% 27.7% 27.6% 27.6% 27.5% 26.1% 26.1% 27.5% Institutional 28.7% 28.8% 29.0% 29.2% 29.3% 29.4% 29.6% 29.7% 28.2% 28.3% 29.1% Work at Home 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 6.5% 6.5% 5.1% Employment Lands Employment 38.7% 38.6% 38.6% 38.1% 38.0% 38.0% 37.9% 37.9% 39.2% 39.1% 38.4% Growth in Non-Residential Space (sq.m) Commercial/Retail/Professional Office 8,298 8,407 8,518 8,051 8,150 8,250 8,352 8,454 6,201 6,256 78,937 Institutional 8,094 8,256 8,421 8,064 8,215 8,369 8,526 8,686 6,385 6,471 79,486 Work at Home Employment Lands Employment 25,070 25,430 25,795 24,189 24,510 24,836 25,165 25,500 20,361 20, ,431 Growth in Total Non-Residential Space 41,462 42,093 42,734 40,304 40,875 41,455 42,043 42,640 32,947 33, ,855 Growth in Non-Residential Space (sq. ft.) 446, , , , , , , , , ,425 4,303, Growth in Employment By Type Commercial/Retail/Professional Office ,361 Institutional ,766 Work at Home Employment Lands Employment ,129 Growth in Total Employment ,093 Shares of Employment Growth Commercial/Retail/Professional Office 26.0% 25.9% 25.9% 23.0% 22.9% 22.8% 22.8% 22.7% 22.9% 22.8% 22.7% 22.7% 22.6% 25.7% Institutional 28.4% 28.4% 28.5% 28.8% 28.8% 28.8% 28.9% 28.9% 27.9% 27.9% 28.0% 28.0% 28.0% 28.8% Work at Home 6.5% 6.5% 6.6% 7.7% 7.7% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 8.9% 9.0% 9.0% 9.1% 9.1% 6.4% Employment Lands Employment 39.1% 39.1% 39.0% 40.6% 40.6% 40.6% 40.5% 40.5% 40.3% 40.3% 40.3% 40.3% 40.2% 39.2% Growth in Non-Residential Space (sq.m) Commercial/Retail/Professional Office 6,312 6,368 6,424 4,531 4,560 4,588 4,617 4,645 3,989 4,011 4,032 4,053 4, ,142 Institutional 6,559 6,648 6,737 5,403 5,461 5,519 5,578 5,638 4,638 4,679 4,720 4,761 4, ,630 Work at Home Employment Lands Employment 20,790 21,007 21,227 17,545 17,695 17,847 17,999 18,154 15,416 15,527 15,639 15,752 15, ,896 Growth in Total Non-Residential Space 33,660 34,023 34,389 27,480 27,716 27,954 28,195 28,437 24,044 24,217 24,391 24,566 24, ,668 Growth in Non-Residential Space (sq. ft.) 362, , , , , , , , , , , , ,304 8,219,357 Source: Hemson Projections

24 69 Nearly 79,500 square metres of institutional space is forecast to be added by By ultimate development over 150,600 square metres is forecast. 3. Work at Home Employment Work at home is the smallest of all of the employment categories. This form of employment is unique as it does not generate any space requirements and is accordingly left out of the building space forecast used in the development charges calculations. Work at home employment in Brantford is forecast to increase from 2,100 in 2008 to 2,400 in 2018, an increase of 17 per cent. By 2031 work at home employment is expected to reach 2,900, a 27 per cent increase from Employment Lands Forecast Employment within designated employment lands is the largest category of employment in Brantford, and this is expected to remain the case throughout the forecast. Typical operations that occur on employment lands include manufacturing, distribution and small offices. Presently, an estimated 19,000 people, or 41 per cent of the City s total employment, are employed in the employment lands category. This amount is expected to grow by 14 per cent over the 10 forecast period from and by 27 per cent to ultimate development. This results in a 24,100 people being employed in this category in Growth in building space on employment lands is forecast by applying a ratio of 93 square metres per employee. This is consistent with recent building activity and is the same value used in the previous development charges study. Approximately 241,400 square metres are forecast to be added by 2018 and 471,900 square metres are expected to be added by Tables 13 and 14 included at the back of the appendix present the residential and employment forecast by Census year. Two maps are also attached at the back of this appendix: Map A-1 illustrates the Brownfield, Community Improvement Project and Residential Infill Area Map A-2 illustrates the boundaries of the Development Charges Exemption Area

25 70 TABLE 13 CITY OF BRANTFORD FORECAST SUMMARY BY CENSUS YEAR ASSUMING CURRENT APPROVED DEVELOPMENT AREAS February 2009 A. POPULATION 1. Forecast Results 2. Migration Estimates Population Growth An. Growth Rate Population Migration with Net Under Coverage , ,997 5, % , ,764 2, % , ,417 1, % , ,192 3, % 93, , ,600 5, % 99, , ,340 5, % 105, , ,420 6, % 111, , ,970 6, % 118, , ,070 7, % 125, , , % B. HOUSEHOLDS 1. Total Households Forecast Summary 2. Total Households Forecast by Unit Households Growth An. Rate HH Size Singles/Semis Rows Apts Total , ,274 1, % ,142 2,413 7,719 32, ,881 2, % ,977 2,772 9,132 34, ,963 2, % ,709 2,989 9,264 36, ,076 3, % ,733 3,456 9,887 40, ,860 2, % ,543 3,874 10,444 42, ,171 3, % ,364 4,702 11,106 46, ,321 3, % ,939 5,489 11,893 49, ,984 3, % ,587 6,588 12,809 52, , % 3. Shares of Household Unit Growth 4. Shares of Total Household Units Singles/Semis Rows Apts Total Singles/Semis Rows Apts Total % 7.5% 23.9% 100.0% % 15.9% 3.7% 100.0% % 7.9% 26.2% 100.0% % 10.4% 7.0% 100.0% % 8.1% 25.1% 100.0% % 15.0% 20.0% 100.0% % 8.6% 24.7% 100.0% % 15.0% 20.0% 100.0% % 9.0% 24.4% 100.0% % 25.0% 20.0% 100.0% % 10.2% 24.1% 100.0% % 25.0% 25.0% 100.0% % 11.1% 24.1% 100.0% % 30.0% 25.0% 100.0% % 12.4% 24.2% 100.0% 5. Growth in Household Units by Type 6. Growth in Population in New Units Singles/Semis Rows Apts Total Singles/Semis Rows Apts Total Dec in Base PPU in new HH , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,590 1,738 1,000 8, , , ,835 1,654 1,189 7, ,648 1, , ,059 2,307 1,382 8, ,877 3,599 3,545 16, ,253 7,557 5,353 40,163 9,285

26 71 TABLE 14 CITY OF BRANTFORD FORECAST SUMMARY BY CENSUS YEAR ASSUMING CURRENT APPROVED DEVELOPMENT AREAS March 2009 C. EMPLOYMENT 1. Forecast Summary Employment Growth Rate Activity Rate , % ,160-2, % 42.7% ,355 5, % 47.9% ,810 3, % 49.7% ,335 3, % 50.6% ,888 3, % 51.2% ,778 2, % 51.0% ,170 2, % 50.2% ,280 2, % 49.0% , % 2. Employment by Category Total Population Related Emp. Land Total Com/Retail/Prof Institutional Work at Home Subtotal ,571 8,136 1,392 21,099 15,061 36, ,464 8,814 1,765 24,043 17,311 41, ,612 9,741 2,020 26,373 18,437 44, ,600 10,754 2,181 28,535 19,800 48, ,582 11,800 2,356 30,738 21,150 51, ,334 12,620 2,544 32,498 22,280 54, ,880 13,310 2,730 33,920 23,250 57, ,360 13,900 2,920 35,180 24,100 59, Employment by Category Shares Population Related Emp. Land Total Com/Retail/Prof Institutional Work at Home Subtotal % 22.5% 3.9% 58.4% 41.7% 100% % 21.3% 4.3% 58.1% 41.9% 100% % 21.7% 4.5% 58.9% 41.1% 100% % 22.2% 4.5% 59.0% 41.0% 100% % 22.7% 4.5% 59.2% 40.8% 100% % 23.0% 4.6% 59.3% 40.7% 100% % 23.3% 4.8% 59.3% 40.7% 100% % 23.4% 4.9% 59.3% 40.7% 100% 4. Employment by Category Growth Population Related Emp. Land Total Com/Retail/Prof Institutional Work at Home Subtotal , ,944 2,251 5, , ,330 1,126 3, , ,162 1,363 3, , ,203 1,350 3, ,760 1,130 2, , , , , ,748 4, ,807 5,663 14, Shares of Employment Growth Population Related Emp. Land Total Com/Retail/Prof Institutional Work at Home Subtotal % 26.8% 7.4% 67.4% 32.6% 100.0% % 28.7% 4.6% 61.3% 38.7% 100.0% % 29.5% 4.9% 62.0% 38.0% 100.0% % 28.4% 6.5% 60.9% 39.1% 100.0% % 28.8% 7.8% 59.5% 40.5% 100.0% % 28.0% 9.0% 59.7% 40.3% 100.0% % 28.7% 6.2% 60.9% 39.1% 100.0%

27 72 MAP A-1: BROWNFIELD COMMUNITY IMPROVEMENT & RESIDENTIAL INFILL AREA

28 73 MAP A-2: DEVELOPMENT CHARGES EXEMPTION AREA