Economic Base Analysis

Transcription

1 Economic Base Analysis Economic Vision for the City of Burlington Burlington Economic Development Corporation DRAFT 1 Millier Dickinson Blais

2 Contents 1 ECONOMIC BASELINE ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS EDUCATION CHARACTERISTICS IMMIGRATION AND LANGUAGE INCOME DWELLING CHARACTERISTICS OCCUPATIONAL PROFILE LABOUR FORCE CHARACTERISTICS BUSINESS PROFILE BUSINESS CHARACTERISTICS SELECT CHARACTERISTICS FROM THE 2013 HALTON REGION EMPLOYMENT SURVEY 43 2 Millier Dickinson Blais

3 1 Economic Baseline Analysis The Economic Base Analysis presents demographic, occupational, and business statistics for the City of Burlington. These statistics highlight the various trends taking place in Burlington and the surrounding region, helping to identify potential opportunities and challenges in the community. Many of the statistical categories presented in the Economic Base Analysis are compared with Halton Region and the province of Ontario to better understand how Burlington is positioned compared to these larger areas that Burlington is a part of. 1.1 Demographic Profile Population Characteristics Population Growth The population in the City of Burlington grew by 16.5% between 2001 and 2011 to reach a population of 175,779 (see Figure 1 and Figure 2). The largest growth period was recorded between 2001 and 2006, with the population increasing by 9.0% (13,579 people). Burlington s growth is compared to population changes in Halton Region and the province of Ontario, which each saw large population growth rates from 2001 to 2011 as well (33.7% and 12.6% respectively). It should be noted that Halton s population during this time grew by roughly double the rate of growth in Burlington, increasing by 33.7%. 3 Millier Dickinson Blais

4 FIGURE 1: POPULATION GROWTH, & % 15% 10% 5% 0% 17% 14% 9% 7% 7% 6% Burlington Halton Ontario Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey, 2011 Census and 2006 Community Profiles Census FIGURE 2: POPULATION STATISTICS, Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey, 2011 Census and 2006 Community Profiles Census Population Growth Projections Population Absolute Δ % Δ Absolute Δ % Δ Absolute Δ % Δ Burlington 150, , ,779 13, % 11, % 24, % Halton 375, , ,669 63, % 62, % 126, % Ontario 11,410,046 12,160,282 12,851, , % 691, % 1,441, % Population projections released by the Government of Ontario for the Greater Golden Horseshoe Area (GGH) 1 estimate that population in the GGH will increase by 50%-98% between 2001 and This population projection is further 1 The Greater Golden Horseshoe area includes communities in Durham Region, York Region, Simcoe County, Peel Region, County of Brant, Brantford, Halton Region, Waterloo Region, Niagara Region, Wellington County, Hamilton, Toronto 2 Hemson Consulting for the Government of Ontario, Greater Golden Horseshoe Growth Forecasts to 2041: Technical Report (November 2012) Addendum, June Millier Dickinson Blais

5 Population broken down into each of the census divisions within the GGH. As seen in Figure 3, the population in Halton Region is expected to increase by 398, ,000 people (102%-211%) between 2001 and This growth in Halton Region represents an increase significantly above the projected overall population growth for the GGH during the same time period. FIGURE 3: POPULATION PROJECTIONS TO 2041, HALTON REGION 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , Reference Scenario High Scenario Low Scenario Source: Hemson Consulting for the Government of Ontario, Greater Golden Horseshoe Growth Forecasts to 2041: Technical Report (November 2012) Addendum, June 2013 While the GGH estimates do not include projections for the municipalities in Halton Region, the Region has used the available data to create population projections for each of the municipalities within its boundaries 3. As seen in Figure 4, these population growth projections highlight a projected population increase of 21,723 people in Burlington between 2006 and 2031 (a 13% increase). This growth is significantly lower than other neighbouring areas such as Oakville (80,871 people, 49% increase), Milton (174,146 people, 323% increase), and Halton Hills (36,907 people, 67% increase). 3 It is important to note that the data used in the Halton Region municipality projections has not been updated since 2011, whereas the GGH data was revised in As a result, Figure 3 and Figure 4 should not be compared directly to each other, but rather used as an indicator of general trends in the region. 5 Millier Dickinson Blais

6 Population FIGURE 4: POPULATION PROJECTIONS TO 2031, MUNICIPALITIES OF HALTON REGION 300, , , , ,000 50, Oakville Burlington Milton Halton Hills Source: Regional Municipality of Halton, Best Planning Estimates of Population, Occupied Dwelling Units and Employment, , June 2011 Population by Age In 2011, the median age of the population in Burlington was 41.8 years old. 4 This age is relatively older compared with the median ages in Halton and Ontario (39.3 and 40.4 respectively). 5 That being said, in 2011, Burlington had a comparable percentage of its population in the working age bracket (i.e years old) relative to Halton and Ontario (54% for Burlington, 55% for Halton, and 55% for Ontario). 6 This statistic highlights the presence of a relatively young, working age population in Burlington (see Figure 5). 4 Statistics Canada, National Household Survey (NHS) Profile, 2011 National Household Survey, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE. Adapted by Millier Dickinson Blais Inc. 5 Ibid 6 Ibid 6 Millier Dickinson Blais

7 FIGURE 5: POPULATION PYRAMIDS FOR BURLINGTON, HALTON REGION, AND ONTARIO, 2011 Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey (NHS) Profile, 2011 National Household Survey, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE. Adapted by Millier Dickinson Blais Inc. 7 Millier Dickinson Blais

8 Population Projections by Age As seen in Figure 6, population projections released by the Government of Ontario for the GGH estimate that Halton Region will have a relatively larger share of the population aged 0-39 years old by 2041 compared with estimates for the GGH. This relatively younger population is also complimented by a smaller elderly population aged years old in Halton Region compared to the GGH. It is difficult to determine exactly why these trends are forecast the way they are with little validating evidence presented in the Government of Ontario s release of these data findings. FIGURE 6: POPULATION PROJECTIONS BY AGE Source: Hemson Consulting for the Government of Ontario, Greater Golden Horseshoe Growth Forecasts to 2041: Technical Report (November 2012) Addendum, June Millier Dickinson Blais

9 1.1.2 Education Characteristics Educational Attainment As of 2011, roughly 70% of the population of Burlington had a college or university certificate/diploma (compared with Halton at 68% and Ontario at 58%). Roughly 6% of Burlington s population had an apprenticeships or trades certificate or diploma, while 22% attained a high school diploma or equivalent as their highest level of education. Burlington and Halton have a much smaller percentage of the population with no certificate, diploma or degree compared with Ontario (see Figure 7). FIGURE 7: TOTAL POPULATION AGED YEARS BY HIGHEST CERTIFICATE, DIPLOMA OR DEGREE, 2011 University certificate; diploma or degree at bachelor level or above University certificate or diploma below bachelor level College; CEGEP or other non-university certificate or diploma Apprenticeship or trades certificate or diploma High school diploma or equivalent No certificate; diploma or degree 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Ontario Halton Burlington Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey (NHS) Profile, 2011 National Household Survey, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE 9 Millier Dickinson Blais

10 Field of Study As of 2011, the population of Burlington had the largest concentrations of educational background in two main areas (see Figure 8): Business, Management, and Public Administration (15%) and Architecture, Engineering, and Related Technologies (11%). The areas of Health and Related Fields (8.0%) and Social and Behavioural Sciences and Law (8.0%) also figured prominently in the educational background of the population of Burlington. These study areas are on trend with the educational background for the population of Halton and Ontario, with Business, Management, and Public Administration playing a much larger role for the populations of Burlington and Halton. FIGURE 8: TOTAL POPULATION AGED 15 YEARS AND OVER BY MAJOR FIELD OF STUDY, 2011 Personal; protective and transportation services Health and related fields Agriculture; natural resources and conservation Architecture; engineering; and related technologies Mathematics; computer and information sciences Physical and life sciences and technologies Business; management and public administration Social and behavioural sciences and law Humanities Visual and performing arts; and communications technologies Education 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Ontario Halton Burlington Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey (NHS) Profile, 2011 National Household Survey, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE Note: 'Major Field of study' is defined as the main discipline or subject of learning. It is collected for the highest certificate, diploma or degree above the high school or secondary school level and classified according to the Classification of Instructional Programs (CIP) Canada Millier Dickinson Blais

11 Looking at the changes in major field of study between 2006 and 2011 (see Figure 9), the largest increases in Burlington were seen in the Mathematics, Computer, and Information Sciences Field (36.5%), the Physical and Life Sciences and Technologies Field (32.7%), and Health and Related Fields (21.5%). These changes echo changes in Halton, and are greater than the changes seen in Ontario (in the case of the Mathematics, Computer, and Information Sciences Field the changes in Burlington are well above those seen in Ontario). FIGURE 9: TOTAL POPULATION AGED 15 YEARS AND OVER BY MAJOR FIELD OF STUDY, 2006 AND 2011 No postsecondary certificate; diploma or degree % Δ Burlington Halton Ontario Burlington Halton Ontario Burlington Halton Ontario 56, ,360 4,812,200 55, ,125 4,756, % 2.6% -1.2% Education 5,460 13, ,715 6,325 16, , % 21.4% 15.5% Visual and performing arts; and communications technologies 3,095 8, ,790 3,645 10, , % 19.2% 14.6% Humanities 4,585 11, ,845 5,270 15, , % 32.2% 18.9% Social and behavioural sciences and law 9,325 25, ,100 10,890 30, , % 19.6% 18.4% Business; management and public administration Physical and life sciences and technologies Mathematics; computer and information sciences Architecture; engineering; and related technologies Agriculture; natural resources and conservation 19,255 52,125 1,061,210 21,905 64,650 1,222, % 24.0% 15.2% 2,905 8, ,250 3,855 11, , % 36.2% 26.5% 2,915 8, ,440 3,980 11, , % 32.0% 5.2% 14,125 38,025 1,089,310 15,465 43,385 1,151, % 14.1% 5.7% 980 2,745 91, , , % 11.8% 12.9% Health and related fields 9,460 22, ,490 11,495 28, , % 26.2% 19.0% Personal; protective and transportation services Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey, 2011 Census and 2006 Community Profiles Census 3,815 9, ,620 4,050 11, , % 19.5% 17.0% 11 Millier Dickinson Blais

12 1.1.3 Immigration and Language Immigration As seen in Figure 10, roughly 22% of the population in Burlington in 2011 were immigrants to Canada. This proportion is relatively lower than immigrant levels for Halton (26%) and Ontario (29%). The number of immigrants in Burlington increased by 4.4% from 2006 to 2011 (see Figure 11). This increase was lower than gains in both Halton (19.3%) and Ontario (6.3%) during the same time period. FIGURE 10: TOTAL POPULATION IN PRIVATE HOUSEHOLDS BY IMMIGRANT STATUS AND SELECTED PLACES OF BIRTH, % 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 78% 73% 70% 26% 29% 22% 0.6% 0.8% 1.1% Burlington Halton Ontario Non-immigrants Immigrants Non-permanent residents Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey (NHS) Profile, 2011 National Household Survey, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE Immigrant refers to a person who is or has ever been a landed immigrant/permanent resident. This person has been granted the right to live in Canada permanently by immigration authorities. Some immigrants have resided in Canada for a number of years, while others have arrived recently. Some immigrants are Canadian citizens, while others are not. Most immigrants are born outside Canada, but a small number are born in Canada. 12 Millier Dickinson Blais

13 FIGURE 11: TOTAL POPULATION IN PRIVATE HOUSEHOLDS BY IMMIGRANT STATUS AND SELECTED PLACES OF BIRTH, 2006 AND 2011 Immigration Status % Change Burlington Halton Ontario Burlington Halton Ontario Burlington Halton Ontario Non-immigrants 125, ,325 8,512, , ,695 8,906, % 11.8% 4.6% Immigrants 36, ,915 3,398,725 37, ,740 3,611, % 19.3% 6.3% Non-permanent residents 730 3, ,150 1,070 4, , % 27.1% 13.8% Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey (NHS) Profile, 2011 National Household Survey, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE, and 2006 Community Profiles, 2006 Census, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE As of 2011, the top locations in which immigrants to Burlington immigrated from were (see Figure 12): Europe (56.6%, with the United Kingdom accounting for 26.0% of that total), Asia (24.8%, with India and China accounting for 10.3% of that total), and the Americas (13.0%, with the United States accounting for 4.4% of that total). 13 Millier Dickinson Blais

14 FIGURE 12: TOTAL IMMIGRANT POPULATION IN PRIVATE HOUSEHOLDS BY SELECTED PLACES OF BIRTH, 2011 Place of Birth # of People Proportion of Total Europe 21, % United Kingdom 9, % Poland 1, % Germany 1, % Netherlands 1, % Portugal % Asia 9, % India 2, % China 1, % Philippines 1, % Korea; South % Pakistan % Americas 4, % United States 1, % Colombia % Jamaica % Trinidad and Tobago % Guyana % Africa 1, % South Africa; Republic of % Egypt % Kenya % Morocco % Nigeria % Oceania and other % Total 37,865 Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey (NHS) Profile, 2011 National Household Survey, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE 14 Millier Dickinson Blais

15 Language As of 2011, roughly 90% of the population of Burlington spoke English as the primary language spoken most often at home (see Figure 13). A further 6.3% of the population primarily spoke a non-official (i.e. not English or French) and non- Aboriginal language at home. The top non-official languages spoken at home include Spanish, Panjabi (Punjabi), Polish, Arabic, Chinese (n.o.s.), and Korean (see Figure 14). FIGURE 13: DETAILED LANGUAGE SPOKEN MOST OFTEN AT HOME - TOTAL POPULATION EXCLUDING INSTITUTIONAL RESIDENTS, BURLINGTON, 2011 Language Category # of Speakers Proportion of Speakers English 157, % French 1, % Selected non-aboriginal languages 11, % Selected Aboriginal languages - 0.0% English and non-official language 4, % English and French % French and non-official language % English; French and non-official language % Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey, 2011 Census 15 Millier Dickinson Blais

16 FIGURE 14: TOP NON-OFFICIAL LANGUAGES SPOKEN MOST OFTEN AT HOME, BURLINGTON, 2011 Selected Non-Official Languages # of Speakers Spanish 1,255 Panjabi (Punjabi) 1,055 Polish 840 Arabic 715 Chinese; n.o.s. 555 Korean 460 Russian 395 Portuguese 380 Mandarin 370 Urdu 370 Serbian 355 Persian (Farsi) 340 Tagalog (Pilipino; Filipino) 325 Romanian 320 Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey, 2011 Census Moving beyond language spoken most often at home, Figure 15 highlights the top non-official languages that residents in Burlington are familiar with and able to speak. As seen in the figure, the top non-official languages spoken (as a percent of the total population that speaks a non-official language) are: Spanish 10.2% German 9.0% Italian 8.0% Polish 7.7% 16 Millier Dickinson Blais

17 FIGURE 15: TOTAL POPULATION IN PRIVATE HOUSEHOLDS BY TOP NON-OFFICIAL LANGUAGES SPOKEN, BURLINGTON, 2011 Languages # of Speakers % Share Spanish 3, % German 3, % Italian 2, % Polish 2, % Panjabi (Punjabi) 2, % Arabic 1, % Portuguese 1, % Hindi 1, % Dutch 1, % Tagalog (Pilipino;Filipino) 1, % Chinese; n.o.s. 1, % Croatian 1, % Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey, 2011 Census Mobility As seen in Figure 16, the overall levels of mobility in Burlington decreased between the 2006 and 2011 census period with an increase in the number of non-movers (62% to 89%) and a decrease in the number of movers (38% to 11%). These trends were also seen in Halton and Ontario during the same time period (see Figure 17). Taken together, this decreasing mobility indicates that populations have become less mobile and more stable in the past five years. A less mobile population is an indicator that Burlington is less likely to be at risk of losing segments of the population. 17 Millier Dickinson Blais

18 FIGURE 16: MOBILITY RATES IN BURLINGTON, , , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 - Non-movers Movers Non-migrants Migrants Internal migrants Intraprovincial migrants Interprovincial migrants External migrants 1 year ago 5 years ago Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey (NHS) Profile, 2011 National Household Survey, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE Note: Persons who have not moved are referred to as non-movers and persons who have moved from one residence to another are referred to as movers. Movers include non-migrants and migrants. Intraprovincial migrants are movers who, on Census Day, were living in a different census subdivision than the one at which they resided one year earlier, in the same province. Interprovincial migrants are movers who, on Census Day, were living in a different census subdivision than the one at which they resided one year earlier, in a different province. External migrants are movers who were living in Canada on Census Day, but who were living outside Canada one year earlier. Non-migrants are persons who did move but remained in the same city, town, township, village or Indian reserve. Migrants include internal migrants who moved to a different city, town, township, village or Indian reserve within Canada. 18 Millier Dickinson Blais

19 FIGURE 17: MOBILITY RATES IN BURLINGTON, HALTON, AND ONTARIO, % 89% 89% 88% 80% 60% 40% 62% 61% 63% 38% 39% 37% 20% 0% 11% 11% 12% Burlington Halton Ontario Burlington Halton Ontario 1 year ago 5 years ago Non-movers Movers Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey (NHS) Profile, 2011 National Household Survey, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE Income Household Income The median household income in Burlington in 2010 was $82,494, a growth of roughly 10% from 2005 levels (see Figure 18). The median income levels for Burlington in both 2005 and 2010 were below the overall levels for Halton (which saw growth of 10.1%) and above the levels in Ontario (which saw growth of 9.8%). 19 Millier Dickinson Blais

20 FIGURE 18: MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME OF PRIVATE HOUSEHOLDS Ontario $66,358 $60,455 Halton $91,955 $83,496 Burlington $82,494 $74,969 $- $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100, Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey (NHS) Profile, 2011 National Household Survey, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE, and 2006 Community Profiles, 2006 Census, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE Household Income Brackets In terms of household income brackets, roughly 39.4% of households in Burlington in 2010 made over $100,000 (see Figure 19 below). This is compared with the 34.9% of households in Burlington that made less than $60,000. Roughly 45% of households in Halton and 29.5% in Ontario made over $100,000, with 30% of households in Halton and 45.3% in Ontario making less than $60,000. Taken together, these statistics highlight the relatively higher levels of wealth in Burlington compared with the province. 20 Millier Dickinson Blais

21 FIGURE 19: HOUSEHOLD INCOME BRACKETS, BURLINGTON, % 2.2% 19.3% 8.9% Under $5,000 $5,000 to $14,999 $15,000 to $29, % $30,000 to $59, % $60,000 to $99,999 $100,000 to $149,999 $150,000 and over 25.8% Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey (NHS) Profile, 2011 National Household Survey, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE Dwelling Characteristics Household Size The average number of people in private households in Burlington in 2011 was 2.5 (a slight decrease from 2.6 in 2006). 7 This is slightly lower relative to Halton (2.8 in 2011 and 2006) and Ontario (2.6 in 2011 and 2006). 8 7 Statistics Canada, National Household Survey, 2011 Census and 2006 Community Profiles, 2006 Census, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE 8 ibid 21 Millier Dickinson Blais

22 Dwelling Values As seen in Figure 20, the average value of owned dwellings in Burlington in 2011 was $431,943 (an increase of 24.1% from 2006). This is slightly below the average value of $496,792 for dwellings in Halton (an increase of 24.6% from 2006), but substantially above the average dwelling value for Ontario at $367,428 (an increase of 23.5% from 2006). FIGURE 20: AVERAGE VALUE OF OWNED DWELLINGS Ontario $297,479 $367,428 Halton $398,680 $496,792 Burlington $348,041 $431,943 $- $100,000 $200,000 $300,000 $400,000 $500, Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey (NHS) Profile, 2011 National Household Survey, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE, and 2006 Community Profiles, 2006 Census, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE Note: Value of dwelling - Refers to the dollar amount expected by the owner if the dwelling were to be sold. Ownership Characteristics Roughly 78% of private households in Burlington own their residence, with an additional 22% renting (see Figure 21) households. Compared with Halton there is slightly less household ownership and more renting in Burlington. Compared with Ontario, there is more household ownership and less renting in Burlington. 22 Millier Dickinson Blais

23 FIGURE 21: TOTAL PERCENTAGE OF PRIVATE HOUSEHOLDS BY TENURE, % 80% 60% 78% 83% 71% 40% 20% 0% 28% 22% 17% Burlington Halton Ontario Owner Renter Source: Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey (NHS) Profile, 2011 National Household Survey, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE Dwelling Types As seen in Figure 22, over 50% of the dwelling types in Burlington are single-detached houses (slightly lower than both Halton at 60% and Ontario at 56%). Other dwelling types representing more than 10% of Burlington s housing stock include row houses (18.8%) and apartment buildings with five or more storeys (15.4%). 23 Millier Dickinson Blais

24 FIGURE 22: PROPORTION OF DWELLING TYPES, % 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Single-detached house Apartment; building that has five or more storeys Apartment; building that has fewer than five storeys Semi-detached house Row house Duplex Burlington Halton Ontario Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey (NHS) Profile, 2011 National Household Survey, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE Primary Rental Market As seen in Figure 23, the vacancy rate in Burlington for rental apartments decreased from 1.9% in October 2013 to 1.5% in October This decrease also coincided with a decrease in the availability rate for rental apartments in Burlington (3.1% to 2.9%) and an increase in the average and median rents for two bedroom apartments. Similar trends are being experienced in Hamilton and Ontario as a whole. Interestingly, vacancy and availability rates in Oakville are increasing while still experiencing increases in average and median costs of rent. 24 Millier Dickinson Blais

25 FIGURE 23: PRIMARY RENTAL MARKET Oct-14 Oct-13 Burlington Oakville Hamilton Ontario Burlington Oakville Hamilton Ontario Vacancy Rate (%) - Apt Availability Rate (%) - Apt Average Rent ($) - 2-Bed Apt $1,199 $1,317 $887 $1,086 $1,148 $1,281 $ 866 $1,059 Median Rent ($) - 2-Bed Apt $1,169 $1,295 $875 $1,037 $1,130 $1,271 $ 849 $1,008 Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), Housing Market Information Portal 1.2 Occupational Profile Labour Force Characteristics Regional Labour Force by Industry In 2011, the top industries by labour force in Burlington were: Retail Trade (11.9%) Manufacturing (10.1%) Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (9.0%) Health Care and Social Assistance (9.0%). Figure 24 highlights all industries and their relative concentrations in the economy for Burlington, Halton, and Ontario. 25 Millier Dickinson Blais

26 FIGURE 24: SHARE OF TOTAL LABOUR FORCE POPULATION AGED 15 YEARS AND OVER BY INDUSTRY (NAICS), % 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Burlington Halton Ontario Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey (NHS) Profile, 2011 National Household Survey, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE NAICS Categories: 11-Agriculture; forestry; fishing and hunting, 21-Mining; quarrying; and oil and gas extraction, 22-Utilities, 23- Construction, Manufacturing, 41-Wholesale trade, Retail trade, Transportation and warehousing, 51- Information and cultural industries, 52-Finance and insurance, 53-Real estate and rental and leasing, 54-Professional; scientific and technical services, 55-Management of companies and enterprises, 56-Administrative and support; waste management and remediation services, 61-Educational services, 62-Health care and social assistance, 71-Arts; entertainment and recreation, 72-Accommodation and food services, 81-Other services (except public administration), 91-Public administration 26 Millier Dickinson Blais

27 Since 2006, the total labour force by industry in Burlington grew by 6.7% (see Figure 25). The largest increases (in terms of absolute change) were seen in the following sectors: Public Administration (+1,535 employed) Retail Trade (+1,065 employed) Educational Services (+1,030 employed) Construction (+965 employed) Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (+945 employed) Significant decreases were seen in the Manufacturing sector with a loss of 2,005 employees. Digging deeper into the industry statistics, Figure 26 below illustrates the top industries by number of employed in Burlington in The top three industries are: Elementary and Secondary Schools (5,545 people employed) Local, Municipal and Regional Public Administration (3,110 people employed) Limited-Service Restaurants (2,535 people employed) FIGURE 25: SHARE OF TOTAL LABOUR FORCE POPULATION AGED 15 YEARS AND OVER BY INDUSTRY, BURLINGTON, 2006 & 2011 Industry (NAICS) Burlington % Change 11 Agriculture; forestry; fishing and hunting % 21 Mining; quarrying; and oil and gas extraction % 22 Utilities % 23 Construction 4,120 5, % Manufacturing 12,000 9, % 41 Wholesale trade 6,855 6, % Retail trade 10,735 11, % Transportation and warehousing 4,125 3, % 51 Information and cultural industries 2,460 2, % 52 Finance and insurance 6,240 7, % 53 Real estate and rental and leasing 1,980 2, % 54 Professional; scientific and technical services 7,905 8, % 55 Management of companies and enterprises % 56 Administrative and support; waste management and remediation services 3,620 3, % 61 Educational services 6,675 7, % 62 Health care and social assistance 8,160 8, % 71 Arts; entertainment and recreation 1,810 1, % 72 Accommodation and food services 5,850 6, % 81 Other services (except public administration) 3,980 3, % 91 Public administration 3,745 5, % Total 92,585 98, % Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey (NHS) Profile, 2011 National Household Survey, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE, and 2006 Community Profiles, 2006 Census, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE 27 Millier Dickinson Blais

28 FIGURE 26: TOP INDUSTRIES BY # OF EMPLOYED, BURLINGTON, 2011 # of Employed Elementary and secondary schools 5,545 Local, municipal and regional public administration 3,110 Limited-service restaurants 2,535 Depository credit intermediation 2,490 Full-service restaurants 2,380 Hospitals 2,325 Grocery stores 2,300 Computer systems design and related services 1,830 Architectural, engineering and related services 1,685 Management, scientific and technical consulting services 1,455 Services to buildings and dwellings 1,410 Nursing and residential care facilities 1,240 Building equipment contractors 1,230 Residential building construction 1,215 Agencies, brokerages and other insurance related activities 1,170 Other amusement and recreation industries 1,150 Insurance carriers 1,090 Child day-care services 1,080 Accounting, tax preparation, bookkeeping and payroll services 1,050 Department stores 1,015 Clothing stores 1,010 Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey (NHS) Profile, 2011 National Household Survey, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE 28 Millier Dickinson Blais

29 Regional Labour Force by Industry Location Quotients In order to determine the level and degree of industrial specialization that has developed in Burlington, Location Quotients (LQs) have been calculated to measure the relative concentration of labour force activity by major industry sector. Location quotients are a commonly used tool in regional economic analysis. They assess the concentration of economic activities within a smaller area relative to the overarching region(s) in which it resides. LQ s have been calculated to compare the City of Burlington to the broader trends in the economies of Halton Region and the province of Ontario. This LQ analysis will help highlight the industries in which Burlington has competitive advantages. A location quotient greater than 1.25 for a given sector indicates a local concentration of economic activity as compared to the overarching region and may be an indication of competitive advantage with respect to the attraction of that industry sector. Location quotients equal to 1.0 for a given sector suggest that the study area has the same concentration of economic activity as the overarching comparator (in this case, the Region of Halton, and the Province of Ontario). Finally, a location quotient of less than 0.75 suggests that the place in question does not have a strong competitive advantage in that sector. As seen in Figure 27, compared to Ontario, Burlington has a high degree of specialization in: Wholesale Trade (1.49) Finance and Insurance (1.35) Relative to Halton, Burlington has a low concentration of industries in Management of Companies and Enterprises (0.70) and Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting (0.71). Relative to Ontario, Burlington has a low concentration of industries in Utilities (0.74), Mining, Quarrying, Oil, and Gas Extraction (0.43), and Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting (0.30). 29 Millier Dickinson Blais

30 FIGURE 27: TOTAL LABOUR FORCE POPULATION AGED 15 YEARS AND OVER BY INDUSTRY, LOCATION QUOTIENTS, 2011 Industry (NAICS) LQ's vs. Halton Burlington vs. Ontario 11 Agriculture; forestry; fishing and hunting Mining; quarrying; and oil and gas extraction Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale trade Retail trade Transportation and warehousing Information and cultural industries Finance and insurance Real estate and rental and leasing Professional; scientific and technical services Management of companies and enterprises Administrative and support; waste management and remediation services Educational services Health care and social assistance Arts; entertainment and recreation Accommodation and food services Other services (except public administration) Public administration Source: Statistics Canada. National Household Survey, Catalogue Number X , 2011 Note: Over 1.25 = High Concentration; Under 0.75 = Low Concentration Labour Force by Occupation As seen in Figure 28, the top three occupational industries in Burlington in 2011 were in Sales and Service (23.4%), Business Finance and Administration (17.9%), and Management (15.1%). 30 Millier Dickinson Blais

31 These concentrations are comparable to levels in Halton and Ontario, with the exception of the higher concentration of management occupations in Burlington and Halton relative to the province. Between 2006 and 2011, Burlington experienced increases in Education, Law, and Social, Community, and Government Services Occupations (49.2% increase), Natural and Applied Sciences and Related Occupations (19.0%), and Health Occupations (16.5%) (see Figure 29). These increases are on trend with increases seen in Halton (though below Halton). FIGURE 28: TOTAL LABOUR FORCE POPULATION AGED 15 YEARS AND OVER BY OCCUPATION, 2011 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities Natural resources; agriculture and related production occupations Trades; transport and equipment operators and related occupations Sales and service occupations Occupations in art; culture; recreation and sport Occupations in education; law and social; community and government services Health occupations Natural and applied sciences and related occupations Business; finance and administration occupations Management occupations 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Ontario Halton Burlington Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey (NHS) Profile, 2011 National Household Survey, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE 31 Millier Dickinson Blais

32 FIGURE 29: TOTAL LABOUR FORCE POPULATION AGED 15 YEARS AND OVER BY OCCUPATION, 2006 AND 2011 Occupation Category % Change Burlington Halton Ontario Burlington Halton Ontario Burlington Halton Ontario 0 Management occupations 13,820 40, ,485 14,965 46, , % 14.6% 15.6% 1 Business; finance and administration occupations 2 Natural and applied sciences and related occupations 18,360 50,200 1,204,490 17,700 52,120 1,138, % 3.8% -5.5% 6,565 18, ,930 7,810 23, , % 22.5% 9.4% 3 Health occupations 4,740 11, ,690 5,520 13, , % 24.4% 15.3% 4 Occupations in education; law and social; community and government services 5 Occupations in art; culture; recreation and sport 7,960 21, ,385 11,880 33, , % 54.2% 46.7% 2,770 7, ,980 2,725 8, , % 4.6% 2.7% 6 Sales and service occupations 22,790 57,190 1,522,820 23,105 61,745 1,550, % 8.0% 1.8% 7 Trades; transport and equipment operators and related occupations 8 Natural resources; agriculture and related production occupations 9 Occupations in manufacturing and utilities 9,625 25, ,250 9,280 26, , % 1.1% -4.7% 1,195 3, , , , % -21.2% -35.3% 3,900 10, ,610 3,125 8, , % -15.4% -24.4% Total 91, ,200 6,473,735 98, ,620 6,864,985 Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey (NHS) Profile, 2011 National Household Survey, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE, and 2006 Community Profiles, 2006 Census, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE Digging deeper into the statistics (see Figure 30), the top occupational categories by the number of employed in Burlington in 2011 were: Retail Salespersons (4,425 people employed) Retail and Wholesale Trade Managers (2,395 people employed) Elementary School and Kindergarten Teachers (2,335 people employed) 32 Millier Dickinson Blais

33 FIGURE 30: TOP OCCUPATIONS BY # OF EMPLOYED, BURLINGTON, 2011 Occupation # of Employed Retail salespersons 4,425 Retail and wholesale trade managers 2,395 Elementary school and kindergarten teachers 2,335 Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support occupations 2,005 Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses 1,640 Administrative officers 1,615 Sales and account representatives - wholesale trade (nontechnical) 1,500 Cashiers 1,450 Corporate sales managers 1,430 Secondary school teachers 1,290 Financial auditors and accountants 1,280 General office support workers 1,270 Administrative assistants 1,265 Other customer and information services representatives 1,225 Other financial officers 1,040 Information systems analysts and consultants 1,040 Early childhood educators and assistants 985 Technical sales specialists - wholesale trade 875 Food and beverage servers 855 Cooks 835 Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey (NHS) Profile, 2011 National Household Survey, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE Employment Statistics The unemployment rate in Burlington in 2011 was 5.8%, up from 4.6% in 2006 (see Figure 31). This increase in the unemployment rate was smaller than increases in the unemployment rates for both Halton and Ontario during the same time period (Halton at 4.7% in 2006 and 6.3% in 2011, and Ontario at 6.4% in 2006 and 8.3% in 2011). 33 Millier Dickinson Blais

34 FIGURE 31: EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS Burlington Halton Ontario Burlington Halton Ontario In the labour force 92, ,765 6,587,580 98, ,625 6,864,990 Employed 88, ,040 6,164,245 93, ,850 6,297,005 Unemployed 4,305 11, ,335 5,755 17, ,985 Not in the labour force 40,110 97,745 3,231,840 44, ,925 3,608,685 Participation rate 69.8% 71.9% 67.1% 68.8% 71.0% 65.5% Employment rate 66.5% 68.5% 62.8% 64.8% 66.5% 60.1% Unemployment rate 4.6% 4.7% 6.4% 5.8% 6.3% 8.3% Source: Statistics Canada, National Household Survey (NHS) Profile, 2011 National Household Survey, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE, and 2006 Community Profiles, 2006 Census, Statistics Canada Catalogue no XWE Employment Growth Projections As outlined in an earlier section (see Population Projections), data released by the Government of Ontario for the GGH estimates that employment in Halton Region will increase by 96%-185% between 2001 and 2041 (see Figure 32), significantly above the projected increases for the GGH of 44%-85%. As seen in Figure 33, this employment data has been broken down further to highlight the employment projections for each of the municipalities in Halton Region. These projections indicate a 20% increase in employment in Burlington, lower than the increases projected for Oakville (56%), Milton (320%), and Halton Hills (118%). 9 9 As with the population projections presented earlier, it is important to note that the data used in the Halton Region municipality projections has not been updated since 2011, whereas the GGH data was revised in As a result, Figure 32 and Figure 33 should not be compared directly to each other, but rather used as an indicator of general trends in the region. 34 Millier Dickinson Blais

35 Employment Employment FIGURE 32: EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS TO 2041, HALTON REGION 600, , , , , , Reference Scenario High Scenario Low Scenario Source: Hemson Consulting for the Government of Ontario, Greater Golden Horseshoe Growth Forecasts to 2041: Technical Report (November 2012) Addendum, June 2013 FIGURE 33: EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS TO 2031, MUNICIPALITIES OF HALTON REGION 140, , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, Oakville Burlington Milton Halton Hills Source: Regional Municipality of Halton, Best Planning Estimates of Population, Occupied Dwelling Units and Employment, , June Millier Dickinson Blais

36 Commuting Patterns Roughly 44% of residents in Burlington worked in Burlington in 2011 (see Figure 34). Other top areas that residents of Burlington worked include Oakville (14%), Toronto (12%), Mississauga (12%), and Hamilton (10%). FIGURE 34: PLACE OF WORK FOR RESIDENTS OF BURLINGTON, 2011 Burlington Oakville Toronto Mississauga Hamilton Milton Brampton 2% 2% 14% 12% 12% 10% 44% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Source: Statistics Canada; 2011 National Household Survey. Catalogue Number X In terms of where workers in Burlington reside, roughly 45% of workers live within Burlington (see Figure 35). A significant number of workers that commute into Burlington for their employment also live in Hamilton (31%). Other important areas from which workers live and commute into Burlington include Oakville (6%) and Mississauga (4%), albeit, to a lesser extent. 36 Millier Dickinson Blais

37 FIGURE 35: PLACE OF RESIDENCE FOR WORKERS IN BURLINGTON, 2011 Burlington 45% Hamilton 31% Oakville Mississauga Toronto Milton Grimsby 6% 4% 2% 2% 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Source: Statistics Canada; 2011 National Household Survey. Catalogue Number X Business Profile Business Characteristics Business Patterns Assessment Statistics Canada s Canadian Business Patterns Data provides a record of business establishments in Canada by industry and size. Collected by the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA), business data collected includes all local businesses that meet at least one of the three following criteria: Have an employee workforce for which they submit payroll remittances to CRA; or Have a minimum of $30,000 in annual sales revenue; or Are incorporated under a federal or provincial act and have filed a federal corporate income tax form within the past three years. The Canadian Business Patterns Data records business counts by Total, Indeterminate and Subtotal categories. The establishments in the Indeterminate category include the self-employed (i.e. those who do not maintain an employee payroll, but may have a workforce consisting of contracted workers, family members or business owners). It should be 37 Millier Dickinson Blais

38 noted that the Canadian Business Patterns Data uses the CRA as a primary resource in establishment counts; therefore, businesses without a business number or indicating annual sales less than $30,000 are not included. The population of these small, unincorporated businesses is thought to be in the range of 600,000 in all of Canada. Business Patterns in Burlington 2008 to 2013 A detailed review of the business patterns data for the period between 2008 and 2013 for Burlington provides a snapshot of the growth or decline of businesses over a five-year period in the City. When combined with the broader industry analysis presented above, the business patterns information assists in understanding the key industry opportunities for Burlington to pursue, especially with regards to program development and delivery, and strategic planning. As seen in Figure 36, the number of business establishments in Burlington grew by 14.6% between 2008 and Positive gains (in terms of absolute numbers) in the number of business establishments in Burlington were seen especially in: Real Estate and Rental and Leasing (+415 businesses) Health Care and Social Assistance (+339 businesses) Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (+235 businesses) Construction (+232 businesses) In terms of concentration, the following sectors exhibited the highest concentration of business establishments in Burlington as a percent of the total number of businesses in December 2013: Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (2,710 businesses, 18.5% of total, increased by 9.5% from 2008) Real Estate and Rental and Leasing (1,529 businesses, 10.4% of total, increased by 37.3% from 2008) Construction (1,415 businesses, 9.6% of total, increased by 19.6% from 2008) Retail Trade (1,299 businesses, 8.9% of total, increased by 6.2% from 2008) 38 Millier Dickinson Blais

39 FIGURE 36: BUSINESS ESTABLISHMENTS BY INDUSTRY AND LOCATION QUOTIENTS, BURLINGTON, 2008 & 2013 Industry (NAICS) Burlington LQ %Δ 2013 % Total vs. Halton vs. Ontario 11 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting % 0.6% Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction % 0.1% Utilities % 0.1% Construction 1,183 1, % 9.6% Manufacturing % 4.1% Wholesale Trade % 5.9% Retail Trade 1,223 1, % 8.9% Transportation and Warehousing % 3.5% Information and Cultural Industries % 1.8% Finance and Insurance 894 1, % 6.9% Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 1,114 1, % 10.4% Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 2,475 2, % 18.5% Management of Companies and Enterprises % 4.3% Administrative and Support, Waste Management and Remediation Services % 5.2% Educational Services % 1.3% Health Care and Social Assistance % 6.6% Arts, Entertainment and Recreation % 1.7% Accommodation and Food Services % 3.3% Other Services (except Public Administration) 981 1, % 7.3% Public Administration % 0.0% Total Economy 12,809 14, % Source: Canadian Business Patterns, Statistics Canada, December 2008 and December 2013 Note: Over 1.25 = High Concentration; Under 0.75 = Low Concentration 39 Millier Dickinson Blais

40 Figure 36 also highlights that Burlington has a high degree of specialization (i.e. location quotient) relative to Ontario by number of business establishments in: Wholesale Trade (1.45) Management of Companies (1.25) Relative to Halton, Burlington has a low concentration of businesses in Mining, Quarrying, Oil, and Gas Extraction (0.56) and Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting (0.60). Relative to Ontario, Burlington has a low concentration of business establishments in Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, and Hunting (0.16), Public Administration (0.20), Mining, Quarrying, Oil, and Gas Extraction (0.42), Transportation and Warehousing (0.58), and Utilities (0.72). Business Patterns in Burlington 2014 As can be seen below in Figure 37, small companies and enterprises that employ less than 10 people play an important role in the business composition in Burlington. In 2013 (excluding self-employed businesses that make up the indeterminate category, which themselves are small enterprises), there were 3,195 businesses (52% of the subtotal) that employ 1-4 people. An additional 1,203 businesses (19% of the subtotal) employ 5-9 people. While roughly 71% of the employers in Burlington employ nine or less people, roughly 23% of employers in the community employ between employees and 6% of employers employ 50 or more employees. The top industries of Burlington employers that employ nine or less employees are: Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (758 businesses) Health Care and Social Assistance (546 businesses) Retail Trade (481 businesses) Other Services (Except Public Administration) (433 businesses) Construction (422 businesses) The top Burlington industries with firms employing employees are: Retail Trade (268 businesses) Accommodation and Food Services (160 businesses) Wholesale Trade (150 businesses) Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (116 businesses) 40 Millier Dickinson Blais

41 Manufacturing (112 businesses) Of the Burlington firms employing 50 or more employees, the top industries are: Manufacturing (68 businesses) Retail Trade (62 businesses) Accommodation and Food Services (43 businesses) Wholesale Trade (41 businesses) Health Care and Social Assistance (27 businesses) It is interesting to note that roughly 65% of business establishments in Burlington in 2014 were self-employed businesses (i.e. the indeterminate category in Figure 37). The top industries for the self-employed in Burlington are: Real Estate and Rental and Leasing (2,361 businesses) Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (2,234 businesses) Construction (1,044 businesses) Finance and Insurance (953 businesses) Health Care and Social Assistance (798 businesses) Comparing industry concentrations between the self-employed and employer businesses in Burlington reveals some interesting findings. These are: The self-employed account for roughly 71% of all business establishments in the Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services industry. This represents more than double the 29% of business establishments that have employees in the same industry. The self-employed account for roughly 66% of all business establishments in the Construction industry. This is nearly double the 34% of business establishments that have employees in the same industry. 41 Millier Dickinson Blais

42 FIGURE 37: BUSINESS ESTABLISHMENT SIZE BY INDUSTRY, BURLINGTON, 2014 Industry (NAICS) Total Indeterminate Subtotal Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction Utilities Construction 1,583 1, Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade 1, Transportation and Warehousing Information and Cultural Industries Finance and Insurance 1, Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 2,584 2, Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 3,128 2, Management of Companies and Enterprises Administrative and Support, Waste Management and Remediation Services Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance 1, Arts, Entertainment and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services Other Services (except Public Administration) 1, Public Administration Source: Canadian Business Patterns, Statistics Canada, December 2014 Total Economy 17,767 11,564 6,203 3,195 1, Millier Dickinson Blais