Situation Analysis Updated October 9th, 2012

Transcription

1 Situation Analysis Updated October 9th, 2012

2 Three Step Approach Research Consultation Reporting

3 Research Phase An objective evaluation of the structure of the regional economy Economic Base Analysis Demographic Profile & Labour Force Analysis Inventory Economic Development Assets Review Recent Development Trends & Literature Review Background Report Research Consultation Reporting

4 Select Characteristics Source: Statistics Canada 2006 & 2011 Census Population Growth Halton Hills Halton Region Toronto CD Ontario (growth slowed in last five years) 6.7% 14.2% 5.0% 6.0% % 17.1% 1.0% 6.6% Income Median Family Income 2005 $92,392 $92,416 $59,671 $69,156 Occupation %Employed as Managers 15% 16% 7% 10% Residency % Living in Detached Houses 74% 69% 27% 56% 4

5 Select Characteristics Source: Statistics Canada 2006 & 2011 Census Halton Halton Toronto Ontario Population Hills growth Region slowed but CD still exceeding Ontario Population Growth (growth slowed in last five years) 6.7% 14.2% 5.0% 6.0% % Higher Incomes 17.1% 1.0% 6.6% Income Median Family Income 2005 $92,392 More Managers $92,416 $59,671 $69,156 Occupation %Employed as Managers More 15% Detached 16% Homes 7% 10% Residency % Living in Detached Houses 74% 69% 27% 56% 5

6 Location Quotient (LQ) (Population by Age Total Population in the Study Area) (Population by Age in Ontario Total Population in Ontario) Measures the concentration of various age groups in the study area Identifies potential areas of strength and weakness in the labour force 6

7 Halton Hills Demographic Profile Source: Statistics Canada 2011 Census LQ compared to Toronto LQ compared to Ontario LQ compared to Halton Region High concentrations of children & their parents 1.20 LQ Low concentrations of young adults & seniors Age 7

8 Workforce Commuting Patterns 45% of local jobs filled by non residents 30% of residents work locally % of residents commute daily Photo: Danielle Scott via Flickr

9 Commuting Flows Place of Work Employed Halton Hills Residents Place of Residence People Working in Halton Hills Halton Hills 30% Halton Hills 55% All Others 20% Mississauga 21% Mississauga 5% Milton 6% Toronto 10% Brampton 13% All Others 21% Milton 5% Erin 4% Brampton 10% 25,174 Employed Residents of Halton Hills 14,915 Jobs in Halton Hills 9

10 Employment Land Most of Halton Hills land is protected Niagara Escarpment Plan Provincial Greenbelt Agricultural Lands Policies Majority of Industrial & Commercial Development will be in the 401 Corridor 10

11 Halton Hills 401 Corridor Phase 1 Phase acres of prestige land fronting on Hwy 401 between Mississauga and Milton 1.5 million sq. ft. of commercial/industrial space already developed west of Trafalgar Road creating 500 jobs. Construction underway on Toronto Premium Outlet Mall 500,000 sq. ft. upscale retail space east of Trafalgar on

12 Trends in Canadian Employment

13 Source of New Jobs & Capital Investment Business Attraction 15% Entrepreneurs 9% Existing Businesses 76% Source: Blane Canada Ltd. 13

14 Trends in Employment Net Change in Canada Public Administration Other Services (except Public Administration) Accommodation and Food Services Arts, Entertainment and Recreation Health Care and Social Assistance Educational Services Administrative and Support, Waste Management Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Finance and Insurance Transportation and Warehousing Retail Trade Manufacturing Construction Utilities Mining, Quarring, and Oil and Gas Extraction Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 000s Jobs Source: Statistics Canada 14

15 Business Size in Halton Hills Indetermin 2,398 1 to # of Employees 5 to 9 10 to to to to to Only 8 companies have more than 200 employees 4,048 businesses in Halton Hills 91% have less than 10 employees ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Source: 2011 Statistics Canada Business Patterns Data provided by OMAFRA 15

16 Self Employment in Canada Recession Periods (Index, 1987 = 100) Source: Industry Canada Small Business Quarterly November 2011, vol. 13, no. 3 16

17 Self Employment in Canada Outpacing paid employment growth by nearly 2 to 1 Represents almost 20% of jobs Heavily concentrated in service sector More than 1/3 of Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Sector (781,000 paid & 420,000 self employed or 35%) Source: Industry Canada Small Business Quarterly Nov and

18 Home Based Businesses Clearing up the Misconceptions US studies show: 1/3rd of all small businesses are home based 75% are full time 35% have revenues over $125,000 8% have revenues over $500,000. Median household incomes are substantially higher ($75,000 for home based businesses vs. $50,233 for average households) Home based businesses typically purchase more locally and therefore have a greater economic impact than commuting employees Source: employment%e2%80%94 economic impact 18

19 Indeterminate Businesses Registered corporations that don t file T4A Reports with CPP and Income Tax Deductions. No information available about their workforce (Self employed, may employ contractors) Employer Businesses % Halton Hills Indeterminate % 19

20 Businesses in Halton Hills 40% are Employer Businesses Public Administration Other Services (except Public Administration) Accommodation and Food Services Arts, Entertainment and Recreation Health Care and Social Assistance Educational Services Administrative and Support, Waste Management and Management of Companies and Enterprises Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Finance and Insurance Information and Cultural Industries Transportation and Warehousing Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Manufacturing Construction Utilities Mining, Quarring, and Oil and Gas Extraction Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Employer Businesses Indeterminate High Numbers of Indeterminate in Business Services & Construction Total = 4,084 Source: 2011 Statistics Canada Business Patterns Data provided by OMAFRA

21 Economic Base Analysis

22 Location Quotient (LQ) (Businesses by Sector Total Businesses in the Study Area) (Businesses by Sector in Ontario Total Ontario Businesses) Statistical Tool to measure the relative concentration of an element in the study area Identifies potential areas of strength and weakness 22

23 Location Quotient (LQ) What does it mean? LQ < 1.0 Lower concentration than the Provincial Average Suggests a competitive disadvantage Money leaving the community LQ = 1.0 Same concentration as Province No competitive advantage or disadvantage LQ > 1.0 Higher Concentration than the Province Sector is exporting and bringing wealth to the community Suggests a competitive advantage 23

24 Halton Hills Location Quotient Analysis 2011 Employer Businesses Public Administration Other Services (except Public Administration) Accommodation and Food Services Arts, Entertainment and Recreation Health Care and Social Assistance Educational Services Administrative and Support, Waste Management Management of Companies and Enterprises Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Finance and Insurance Information and Cultural Industries Transportation and Warehousing Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Manufacturing Construction Utilities Mining, Quarring, and Oil and Gas Extraction Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Ontario Average Under reported Source: Statistics Canada Business Patterns Data for Dec provided by OMAFRA 24

25 Halton Hills Economic Base Analysis Shift/Share Analysis The relative growth/decline of each industry in the study area Formula: Net Change in # of Establishments is attributed to 3 factors Provincial Effect performance of the Provincial economy Industry Effect performance of the industry province wide Regional Effect residual change attributed to local factors Regional Effect is of greatest interest 25

26 Halton Hills Change in # Businesses 2009 to Public Administration 81 Other Services (except Public Administration) 72 Accommodation and Food Services 71 Arts, Entertainment and Recreation 62 Health Care and Social Assistance 61 Educational Services 56 Administrative and Support, Waste 55 Management of Companies and Enterprises 54 Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 53 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 52 Finance and Insurance 51 Information and Cultural Industries Transportation and Warehousing Retail Trade 41 Wholesale Trade Manufacturing 23 Construction 22 Utilities 21 Mining, Quarring, and Oil and Gas Extraction 11 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Source: Statistics Canada Business Patterns Data for Dec provided by OMAFRA 26

27 Halton Hills Targeting Strategic Sectors Regional Effect Emerging Sectors Sectors with Challenges Strong Sectors Priority Retention Targets Location Quotient 27

28 Halton Hills Targeting Strategic Sectors 2009 to 2011 Regional Effect Emerging Sectors Public Admin Info & Cult Real Estate Sectors with Challenges Accom & Food Finance Education Health Retail Other Services Construction Admin Services Mining Mfg Prof & Tech Transport Agriculture Wholesale Strong Sectors Arts & Rec. Priority Retention Targets Location Quotient Source: Statistics Canada 2009 & 2011 Business Patterns Data supplied by OMAFRA 28

29 Construction Strong Sectors (Strong and growing concentration) serving a growing residential population as well as industrial/commercial development in the region Retail responding to growing market of new residents Premium Outlet Mall will add to the significance of this sector and draw customers from outside the community Arts & Recreation arenas, golf clubs & fitness centres Mining extension of Acton Quarry, one of Halton Hills significant employers 29

30 Emerging Sectors (Currently under represented but growing) Accommodation & Food emphasis on food services, both full and limited service restaurants accommodations currently limited Finance & Insurance growth in insurance brokerage and related financial services 30

31 Consultation Phase Face to Face Interviews with Key Stakeholders On Line Survey of Local Businesses Initial Findings & Issues Report Focus Group to Identify Key Priorities Research Consultation Reporting

32 Major Consultation Themes Overwhelming desire to preserve Halton Hill s unique character Don t want Mississauga/Brampton style of development Don t want to follow the Milton experience Preserve the rural buffers between urban areas 401 Corridor is preferred for new commercial & industrial growth 32

33 Major Consultation Themes Agriculture is under immense pressure Business retention target? General support for Small Business & Entrepreneurial development In keeping with the Town character Especially business and professional services 33

34 Major Consultation Themes Improvements in transportation infrastructure Armstrong Ave. and northsouth corridors Debate over the need for transit More customer friendly development approvals process particularly for end user businesses (inexperienced applicants) Development charges very high 34

35 Major Consultation Themes Challenges recruiting lowskilled, semi skilled workers Day trippers, hikers & cyclists undeveloped tourist markets Wireless broadband in rural areas hampered by terrain 35

36 Questions? Matt Fischer Ec.D. CED Aileen Murray Ec.D. (F)