Economic Overview City of Tyler, TX. January 8, 2018

Transcription

1 Economic Overview City of Tyler, TX January 8, 2018

2 DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE...3 EMPLOYMENT TRENDS...5 WAGE TRENDS...5 COST OF LIVING INDEX...6 INDUSTRY SNAPSHOT...7 OCCUPATION SNAPSHOT...9 INDUSTRY CLUSTERS EDUCATION LEVELS FAQ

3 Demographic Profile The population in the City of Tyler, TX was 101,946 per American Community Survey data for The region has a civilian labor force of 49,463 with a participation rate of 61.8%. Of individuals 25 to 64 in the City of Tyler, TX, 27.2% have a bachelor s degree or higher which compares with 31.8% in the nation. The median household income in the City of Tyler, TX is $44,507 and the median house value is $140,000. Summary 1 Percent Value City of Tyler, TX City of Tyler, TX Demographics Population (ACS) 101,946 26,956, ,558,162 Male 47.0% 49.6% 49.2% 47,903 13,379, ,765,322 Female 53.0% 50.4% 50.8% 54,043 13,577, ,792,840 Median Age Under 18 Years 23.9% 26.5% 23.1% 24,362 7,132,476 73,612, to 24 Years 13.2% 10.2% 9.8% 13,441 2,738,831 31,296, to 34 Years 15.4% 14.5% 13.6% 15,747 3,915,774 43,397, to 44 Years 10.7% 13.5% 12.7% 10,865 3,642,463 40,548, to 54 Years 10.9% 12.9% 13.6% 11,136 3,471,589 43,460, to 64 Years 11.1% 11.0% 12.6% 11,353 2,958,735 40,061, to 74 Years 7.3% 6.8% 8.3% 7,442 1,828,562 26,355, Years, and Over 7.5% 4.7% 6.2% 7,600 1,268,005 19,825,324 Race: White 68.1% 74.8% 73.3% 69,386 20,174, ,657,078 Race: Black or African American 24.6% 11.9% 12.6% 25,086 3,221,133 40,241,818 Race: American Indian and Alaska Native 0.3% 0.5% 0.8% ,145 2,597,817 Race: Asian 2.2% 4.4% 5.2% 2,230 1,175,423 16,614,625 Race: Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% , ,021 Race: Some Other Race 2.8% 5.8% 4.8% 2,821 1,561,683 15,133,856 Race: Two or More Races 1.9% 2.5% 3.1% 1, ,400 9,752,947 Hispanic or Latino (of any race) 22.5% 38.6% 17.3% 22,905 10,413,150 55,199,107 Economic Labor Force Participation Rate and Size (civilian population 16 years and over) 61.8% 64.5% 63.3% 49,463 13,219, ,807,099 Armed Forces Labor Force 0.1% 0.5% 0.4% ,754 1,011,641 Veterans, Age % 5.4% 5.1% 2, ,966 10,165,671 Median Household Income 2 $44,507 $54,727 $55,322 Per Capita Income $25,986 $27,828 $29,829 Poverty Level (of all people) 20.3% 16.7% 15.1% 19,951 4,397,307 46,932,225 Households Receiving Food Stamps 12.0% 13.1% 13.0% 4,487 1,220,336 15,360,951 Mean Commute Time (minutes)

4 Summary 1 Percent Value City of Tyler, TX City of Tyler, TX Commute via Public Transportation 0.4% 1.5% 5.1% ,919 7,476,312 Union Membership 3 5.1% 4.2% 10.7% Educational Attainment, Age No High School Diploma 16.2% 16.5% 11.6% 7,968 2,303,492 19,478,050 High School Graduate 20.9% 24.7% 26.1% 10,251 3,452,488 43,788,541 Some College, No Degree 25.5% 22.7% 21.5% 12,514 3,174,603 36,025,193 Associate's Degree 10.2% 7.3% 8.9% 5,001 1,015,736 14,962,488 Bachelor's Degree 19.1% 19.4% 20.2% 9,374 2,710,069 33,845,524 Postgraduate Degree 8.1% 9.5% 11.6% 3,993 1,332,173 19,368,719 Housing Housing Units 42,392 10,441, ,054,899 Median House Value (of owner-occupied units) 2 $140,000 $142,700 $184,700 Homeowner Vacancy 3.5% 1.6% 1.8% ,289 1,395,797 Rental Vacancy 10.5% 7.6% 6.2% 2, ,244 2,855,844 Renter-Occupied Housing Units (% of Occupied Units) 48.2% 38.1% 36.4% 18,065 3,542,096 42,835,169 Occupied Housing Units with No Vehicle Available (% of Occupied Units) 6.1% 5.6% 9.0% 2, ,186 10,562,847 Social Enrolled in Grade 12 (% of total population) 1.2% 1.4% 1.4% 1, ,416 4,433,703 Disconnected Youth 4 2.1% 3.2% 2.8% , ,589 Children in Single Parent Families (% of all children) 39.7% 35.2% 34.7% 9,122 2,392,053 24,318,038 With a Disability, Age % 9.8% 10.3% 5,878 1,608,392 20,188,257 With a Disability, Age 18-64, Labor Force Participation Rate and Size 42.1% 44.2% 41.0% 2, ,611 8,278,834 Foreign Born 10.4% 16.7% 13.2% 10,560 4,494,345 42,194,354 Speak English Less Than Very Well (population 5 yrs and over) 9.4% 14.1% 8.5% 8,971 3,518,972 25,440,956 Source: JobsEQ 1. American Community Survey , unless noted otherwise 2. Median values for certain aggregate regions (such as MSAs) may be estimated as the weighted averages of the median values from the composing counties ; Current Population Survey, unionstats.com, and Chmura; county- and zip-level data are best estimates based upon industry-, MSA-, and state-level data 4. Disconnected Youth are year olds who are (1) not in school, (2) not high school graduates, and (3) either unemployed or not in the labor force. 4

5 Employment Trends As of 2017Q3, total employment for the City of Tyler, TX was 82,912 (based on a four-quarter moving average). Over the year ending 2017Q3, employment increased 0.5% in the region. Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2017Q1 with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q3. Wage Trends The average worker in the City of Tyler, TX earned annual wages of $43,653 as of 2017Q3. Average annual wages per worker increased 1.0% in the region during the preceding four quarters. For comparison purposes, annual average wages were $54,666 in the nation as of 2017Q3. Annual average wages per worker data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2017Q1 with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q3. 5

6 Cost of Living Index The Cost of Living Index estimates the relative price levels for consumer goods and services. When applied to wages and salaries, the result is a measure of relative purchasing power. The cost of living is 8.2% lower in City of Tyler, TX than the U.S. average. Cost of Living Information Annual Average Salary Cost of Living Index (Base US) US Purchasing Power City of Tyler, TX $43, $47,552 $54, $58,048 $54, $54,666 Source: JobsEQ Data as of 2017Q3 Cost of Living per C2ER, data as of 2017q2, imputed by Chmura where necessary. 6

7 Industry Snapshot The largest sector in the City of Tyler, TX is Health Care and Social Assistance, employing 23,165 workers. The next-largest sectors in the region are Retail Trade (11,121 workers) and Accommodation and Food Services (7,834). High location quotients (LQs) indicate sectors in which a region has high concentrations of employment compared to the national average. The sectors with the largest LQs in the region are Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction (LQ = 2.52), Health Care and Social Assistance (1.96), and Retail Trade (1.24). Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2017Q1 with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q3. Sectors in the City of Tyler, TX with the highest average wages per worker are Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction ($90,005), Management of Companies and Enterprises ($89,348), and Utilities ($88,061). Regional sectors with the best job growth (or most moderate job losses) over the last 5 years are Health Care and Social Assistance (+2,475 jobs), Retail Trade (+1,502), and Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services (+669). Over the next 1 year, employment in the City of Tyler, TX is projected to expand by 940 jobs. The fastest growing sector in the region is expected to be Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction with a +2.1% year-over-year rate of growth. The strongest forecast by number of jobs over this period is expected for Health Care and Social Assistance (+483 jobs), Accommodation and Food Services (+74), and Educational Services (+72). 7

8 Current Historical Forecast Four Quarters Ending with 2017q3 Change over the Last 5 Average Annual % Change in Employment 2012q3-2017q3 Over the Next 1 Year Years NAICS Industry Empl Avg. Annual Wages Location Quotient Empl City of Tyler, TX Approx Sep Demand Growth Demand Avg. Annual Growth Percent Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 658 $16, % 0.4% 0.7% % 833 $90, % -4.2% -5.3% % 22 Utilities 239 $88, % 0.3% 0.2% % 23 Construction 2,402 $45, % 3.2% 3.4% % 31 Manufacturing 2,939 $61, % -0.3% 0.8% % 42 Wholesale Trade 2,629 $51, % 1.7% 0.9% % 44 Retail Trade 11,121 $30, , % 2.3% 1.3% 1, % 48 Transportation and Warehousing 3,017 $48, % 3.3% 2.6% % 51 Information 1,537 $55, % 0.5% 0.9% % 52 Finance and Insurance 3,364 $62, % 2.3% 1.1% % Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 1,044 $45, % 3.2% 2.0% % 3,288 $69, % 3.3% 2.3% % 533 $89, % 7.8% 2.7% % 4,202 $29, % 2.6% 2.5% % 61 Educational Services 7,243 $36, % 1.7% 0.7% % Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services Other Services (except Public Administration) 23,165 $56, , % 2.9% 2.5% 2, % 940 $24, % 3.5% 2.3% % 7,834 $16, % 3.9% 3.0% 1, % 3,734 $24, % 1.0% -0.2% % 92 Public Administration 2,170 $54, % 0.7% 0.1% % 99 Unclassified 21 $15, % 32.6% 17.1% % - All Industries 82,912 $43, , % 2.2% 1.7% 9, % Source: JobsEQ Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2017Q1 with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q3. Forecast employment growth uses national projections adapted for regional growth patterns. 8

9 Occupation Snapshot The largest major occupation group in the City of Tyler, TX is Office and Administrative Support Occupations, employing 12,787 workers. The next-largest occupation groups in the region are Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations (9,310 workers) and Sales and Related Occupations (9,169). High location quotients (LQs) indicate occupation groups in which a region has high concentrations of employment compared to the national average. The major groups with the largest LQs in the region are Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations (LQ = 1.98), Healthcare Support Occupations (1.88), and Legal Occupations (1.31). Occupation groups in the City of Tyler, TX with the highest average wages per worker are Management Occupations ($108,900), Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations ($73,000), and Architecture and Engineering Occupations ($72,900). The unemployment rate in the region varied among the major groups from 1.3% among Legal Occupations to 6.1% among Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations. Over the next 1 year, the fastest growing occupation group in the City of Tyler, TX is expected to be Healthcare Support Occupations with a +2.9% year-over-year rate of growth. The strongest forecast by number of jobs over this period is expected for Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations (+162 jobs) and Healthcare Support Occupations (+126). Over the same period, the highest separation demand (occupation demand due to retirements and workers moving from one occupation to another) is expected in Office and Administrative Support Occupations (1,451 jobs) and Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations (1,438). Occupation Snapshot in City of Tyler, TX Current Historical Forecast Four Quarters Ending with 2017q3 2017q3 Change over the Last 5 Avg Ann % Chg in Empl 2012q3-2017q3 Over the Next 1 Year Years SOC Occupation Empl Avg. Annual Wages 1 LQ Unempl Unempl Rate Empl City of Tyler, TX Sep Demand Growth Demand Avg. Annual Growth Percent Management 3,588 $108, % % 1.8% 1.5% % Business and Financial Operations Computer and Mathematical Architecture and Engineering Life, Physical, and Social Science Community and Social Service 3,023 $69, % % 2.4% 1.6% % 1,166 $66, % 0 0.0% 3.3% 2.4% % 930 $72, % % 0.0% 1.0% % 431 $52, % % 1.1% 1.1% % 1,495 $43, % % 2.0% 1.9% % Legal 889 $70, % % 1.1% 0.4% % Education, Training, and Library Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Healthcare Practitioners and Technical 5,582 $42, % % 1.7% 0.8% % 1,094 $45, % % 1.5% 1.1% % 9,310 $73, % % 2.5% 1.7% % 9

10 Occupation Snapshot in City of Tyler, TX Current Historical Forecast Four Quarters Ending with 2017q3 2017q3 Change over the Last 5 Avg Ann % Chg in Empl 2012q3-2017q3 Over the Next 1 Year Years SOC Occupation Empl Avg. Annual Wages 1 LQ Unempl Unempl Rate Empl City of Tyler, TX Sep Demand Growth Demand Avg. Annual Growth Percent Healthcare Support 4,380 $33, % % 2.6% 2.2% % Protective Service 1,412 $43, % % 1.6% 1.0% % Food Preparation and Serving Related Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Personal Care and Service 8,141 $21, % % 3.8% 2.9% 1, % 2,977 $22, % % 1.9% 1.0% % 3,710 $21, % % 3.0% 2.0% % Sales and Related 9,169 $37, % 1, % 2.2% 1.3% 1, % Office and Administrative Support Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Construction and Extraction Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 12,787 $32, % % 2.3% 1.7% 1, % 205 $21, % % 1.6% 1.3% % 2,285 $37, % % 1.9% 2.6% % 2,706 $43, % % 2.0% 1.6% % Production 2,821 $35, % % 0.4% 1.2% % Transportation and Material Moving 4,810 $33, % % 2.7% 2.2% % - All Occupations 82,912 $43, n/a n/a 6, % 2.2% 1.7% 9, % Source: JobsEQ Data as of 2017Q3 unless noted otherwise Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding. 1. Occupation wages are as of 2016 and should be taken as the average for all Covered Employment Occupation employment data are estimated via industry employment data and the estimated industry/occupation mix. Industry employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and currently updated through 2017Q1, imputed where necessary with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q3. Wages by occupation are as of 2016 provided by the BLS and imputed where necessary. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns. 10

11 Industry Clusters A cluster is a geographic concentration of interrelated industries or occupations. The industry cluster in the City of Tyler, TX with the highest relative concentration is Health with a location quotient of This cluster employs 23,165 workers in the region with an average wage of $56,617. Employment in the Health cluster is projected to expand in the region about 2.1% per year over the next ten years. Location quotient and average wage data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, imputed where necessary, and updated through 2017Q1 with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q3. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns. Education Levels Expected growth rates for occupations vary by the education and training required. While all employment in the City of Tyler, TX is projected to grow 1.1% over the next ten years, occupations typically requiring a postgraduate degree are expected to grow 1.8% per year, those requiring a bachelor s degree are forecast to grow 1.3% per year, and occupations typically needing a 2-year degree or certificate are expected to grow 1.4% per year. Employment by occupation data are estimates are as of 2017Q3. Education levels of occupations are based on BLS assignments. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns. 11

12 FAQ What is a location quotient? A location quotient (LQ) is a measurement of concentration in comparison to the nation. An LQ of 1.00 indicates a region has the same concentration of an industry (or occupation) as the nation. An LQ of 2.00 would mean the region has twice the expected employment compared to the nation and an LQ of 0.50 would mean the region has half the expected employment in comparison to the nation. What is separation demand? Separation demand is the number of jobs required due to separations labor force exits (including retirements) and turnover resulting from workers moving from one occupation into another. Note that separation demand does not include all turnover it does not include when workers stay in the same occupation but switch employers. The total projected demand for an occupation is the sum of the separation demand and the growth demand (which is the increase or decrease of jobs in an occupation expected due to expansion or contraction of the overall number of jobs in that occupation). What is a cluster? A cluster is a geographic concentration of interrelated industries or occupations. If a regional cluster has a location quotient of 1.25 or greater, the region is considered to possess a competitive advantage in that cluster. What is the difference between industry wages and occupation wages? Industry wages and occupation wages are estimated via separate data sets, often the time periods being reported do not align, and wages are defined slightly differently in the two systems (for example, certain bonuses are included in the industry wages but not the occupation wages). It is therefore common that estimates of the average industry wages and average occupation wages in a region do not match exactly. What is NAICS? The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) is used to classify business establishments according to the type of economic activity. The NAICS Code comprises six levels, from the all industry level to the 6-digit level. The first two digits define the top level category, known as the sector, which is the level examined in this report. What is SOC? The Standard Occupational Classification system (SOC) is used to classify workers into occupational categories. All workers are classified into one of over 820 occupations according to their occupational definition. To facilitate classification, occupations are combined to form 23 major groups, 96 minor groups, and 449 occupation groups. Each occupation group includes detailed occupations requiring similar job duties, skills, education, or experience. About This Report This report and all data herein were produced by JobsEQ, a product of Chmura Economics & Analytics. The information contained herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable. However, we cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. 12