Economic Overview Long Island

Transcription

1 Report created on October 20, 2015 Economic Overview Long Island Created using: Contact:

2 DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE...3 EMPLOYMENT TRENDS...5 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE...5 WAGE TRENDS...6 COST OF LIVING INDEX...6 INDUSTRY SNAPSHOT...7 OCCUPATION SNAPSHOT...9 INDUSTRY CLUSTERS EDUCATION LEVELS REGION DEFINITION FAQ

3 Demographic Profile In 2014, the population in the Long Island was 2,861,595. Between 2004 and 2014, the region s population grew at an annual average rate of 0.2%. The region has a civilian labor force of 1,489,338 with a participation rate of 65.7%. Of individuals 25 to 64 in the Long Island, 39.9% have a bachelor s degree or higher which compares with 30.5% in the nation. The median household income in the Long Island is $92,434 and the median house value is $416,978. Demographic Profile 1 Percent Value Demographics Long Island New York USA Long Island New York USA Population 2 2,861,595 19,746, ,857,056 Population Annual Average Growth 2 0.2% 0.3% 0.9% 4,542 57,466 2,605,176 Median Age Under 18 Years 23.6% 22.3% 24.0% 669,250 4,324,929 74,181, to 24 Years 8.6% 10.2% 9.9% 242,629 1,983,517 30,672, to 34 Years 10.9% 13.7% 13.3% 309,241 2,659,337 41,063, to 44 Years 13.8% 13.5% 13.3% 390,973 2,610,017 41,070, to 54 Years 16.4% 14.9% 14.6% 463,767 2,878,691 45,006, to 64 Years 12.4% 11.9% 11.8% 350,548 2,303,668 36,482, to 74 Years 7.3% 7.0% 7.0% 206,290 1,360,602 21,713, Years, and Over 7.1% 6.5% 6.0% 200,184 1,257,341 18,554,555 Race: White 77.1% 65.7% 72.4% 2,183,874 12,740, ,553,265 Race: Black or African American 9.2% 15.9% 12.6% 260,273 3,073,800 38,929,319 Race: American Indian and Alaska Native 0.3% 0.6% 0.9% 8, ,906 2,932,248 Race: Asian 5.4% 7.3% 4.8% 153,238 1,420,244 14,674,252 Race: Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 831 8, ,013 Race: Some Other Race 5.6% 7.4% 6.2% 158,176 1,441,563 19,107,368 Race: Two or More Races 2.4% 3.0% 2.9% 67, ,849 9,009,073 Hispanic or Latino (of any race) 15.6% 17.6% 16.3% 441,594 3,416,922 50,477,594 Economic Labor Force Participation Rate and Size (civilian population 16 years and over) % 63.5% 63.8% 1,489,338 9,984, ,113,886 Armed Forces Labor Force 4 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 1,025 24,823 1,083,691 Veterans, Age % 3.6% 6.2% 59, ,956 11,977,656 Median Household Income 3,4 $92,434 $58,003 $53,046 Poverty Level (of all people) 4 6.2% 15.3% 15.4% 173,729 2,903,982 46,663,433 Mean Commute Time (minutes) Commute via Public Transportation % 27.0% 5.0% 145,320 2,398,671 7,000,722 Union Membership % 23.9% 11.1% Educational Attainment, Age

4 Demographic Profile 1 Percent Value Long Island New York USA Long Island New York USA No High School Diploma 4 8.3% 12.6% 12.2% 126,010 1,325,537 20,081,351 High School Graduate % 25.2% 26.7% 371,712 2,652,565 43,924,394 Some College, No Degree % 17.1% 22.0% 264,529 1,797,008 36,266,398 Associate's Degree 4 9.8% 9.4% 8.6% 147, ,761 14,216,331 Bachelor's Degree % 20.8% 19.5% 343,056 2,182,871 32,105,737 Postgraduate Degree % 14.9% 11.0% 260,183 1,567,935 18,142,599 Housing Housing Units 4 1,036,437 8,113, ,057,804 Median House Value (of owner-occupied units) 3,4 $416,978 $288,200 $176,700 Homeowner Vacancy 4 1.4% 1.8% 2.2% 11,067 71,135 1,682,020 Rental Vacancy 4 4.7% 4.5% 7.3% 9, ,426 3,230,123 Renter-Occupied Housing Units (% of Occupied Units) % 45.8% 35.1% 185,656 3,311,238 40,534,516 Occupied Housing Units with No Vehicle Available (% of Occupied Units) 4 6.5% 29.2% 9.1% 60,601 2,109,130 10,483,077 Social Enrolled in Grade 12 (% of total population) 4 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 43, ,011 4,496,472 Disabled, Age % 8.5% 10.1% 110,242 1,047,508 19,403,946 Foreign Born % 22.1% 12.9% 503,299 4,314,703 40,341,898 Speak English Less Than Very Well (population 5 yrs and over) % 13.4% 8.6% 273,195 2,455,989 25,148,900 Source: JobsEQ 1. Census 2010, unless noted otherwise 2. Census 2014, annual average growth rate since Median values for certain aggregate regions (such as MSAs) may be estimated as the weighted averages of the median values from the composing counties. 4. ACS ; Current Population Survey, unionstats.com, and Chmura 4

5 Employment Trends As of 2015Q2, total employment for the Long Island was 1,246,059 (based on a four-quarter moving average). Over the year ending 2015Q2, employment increased 0.8% in the region. Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2014Q4 with preliminary estimates updated to 2015Q2. Unemployment Rate The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the Long Island was 4.5% as of August The regional unemployment rate was lower than the national rate of 5.3%. One year earlier, in August 2014, the unemployment rate in the Long Island was 4.9%. Unemployment rate data are from the Local Area Unemployment Statistics, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and updated through August

6 Wage Trends The average worker in the Long Island earned annual wages of $56,603 as of 2015Q2. Average annual wages per worker increased 3.9% in the region during the preceding four quarters. For comparison purposes, annual average wages were $52,408 in the nation as of 2015Q2. Annual average wages per worker data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2014Q4 with preliminary estimates updated to 2015Q2. Cost of Living Index The Cost of Living Index estimates the relative price levels for consumer goods and services. When applied to wages and salaries, the result is a measure of relative purchasing power. The cost of living is 37.1% higher in Long Island than the U.S. average. Cost of Living Information Annual Average Salary Cost of Living Index (Base US) US Purchasing Power Long Island $56, $41,275 New York $67, $46,429 USA $52, $52,408 Source: JobsEQ Data as of 2015Q2 The Cost of Living Index is developed by Chmura Economics & Analytics and is updated quarterly. 6

7 Industry Snapshot The largest sector in the Long Island is Health Care and Social Assistance, employing 212,685 workers. The nextlargest sectors in the region are Retail Trade (159,910 workers) and Educational Services (128,491). High location quotients (LQs) indicate sectors in which a region has high concentrations of employment compared to the national average. The sectors with the largest LQs in the region are Other Services (except Public Administration) (LQ = 1.36), Construction (1.21), and Wholesale Trade (1.21). Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2014Q4 with preliminary estimates updated to 2015Q2. Sectors in the Long Island with the highest average wages per worker are Finance and Insurance ($114,005), Management of Companies and Enterprises ($101,685), and Utilities ($99,527). Regional sectors with the best job growth (or most moderate job losses) over the last 5 years are Accommodation and Food Services (+16,996 jobs), Health Care and Social Assistance (+15,262), and Construction (+9,961). Over the next 10 years, employment in the Long Island is projected to expand by 103,389 jobs. The fastest growing sector in the region is expected to be Construction with a +2.3% year-over-year rate of growth. The strongest forecast by number of jobs over this period is expected for Health Care and Social Assistance (+52,728 jobs), Construction (+17,970), and Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (+11,540). 7

8 Current Historical Forecast Four Quarters Ending with 2015q2 Change over the Last 5 Average Annual % Change in Employment 2010q2-2015q2 Over the Next 10 Years Years NAICS Industry Empl Avg. Annual Wages Location Quotient Empl Long Island New York USA Approx Repl Demand Growth Demand Avg. Annual Growth Percent Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 2,805 $36, % 3.5% 1.6% % 161 $98, % -0.4% 6.2% % 22 Utilities 5,492 $99, % -0.5% -0.2% 1, % 23 Construction 70,173 $66, , % 2.7% 2.1% 15,325 17, % 31 Manufacturing 70,331 $65, , % -0.5% 1.2% 15,585-6, % 42 Wholesale Trade 64,195 $80, , % 0.9% 1.4% 14, % 44 Retail Trade 159,910 $32, , % 1.8% 1.4% 49,783 3, % 48 Transportation and Warehousing 42,931 $52, , % 0.6% 1.9% 11, % 51 Information 25,215 $80, , % 1.2% 0.0% 5,847-1, % 52 Finance and Insurance 54,178 $114, , % 0.6% 0.5% 13,021 2, % Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 17,350 $62, , % 0.9% 1.2% 3,990 1, % 77,408 $76, , % 2.9% 2.7% 17,006 11, % 15,732 $101, % 1.9% 3.5% 3, % 70,828 $41, , % 2.6% 4.0% 16,888 10, % 61 Educational Services 128,491 $63, , % 0.2% 0.1% 27,066 3, % Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services Other Services (except Public Administration) 212,685 $55, , % 1.6% 2.3% 45,223 52, % 24,298 $33, , % 2.6% 1.7% 7,590 1, % 94,515 $21, , % 4.4% 2.9% 33,683 4, % 52,442 $31, , % 2.1% -0.5% 13,585 4, % 92 Public Administration 51,174 $74, , % -1.7% -0.8% 12,040-2, % 99 Unclassified 5,746 $40, , % 9.6% 8.4% 1, % - All Industries 1,246,059 $56, , % 1.5% 1.6% 313, , % Source: JobsEQ Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2014Q4 with preliminary estimates updated to 2015Q2. Forecast employment growth uses national projections adapted for regional growth patterns. 8

9 Occupation Snapshot The largest major occupation group in the Long Island is Office and Administrative Support, employing 208,240 workers. The next-largest occupation groups in the region are Sales and Related (141,550 workers) and Food Preparation and Serving Related (103,751). High location quotients (LQs) indicate occupation groups in which a region has high concentrations of employment compared to the national average. The major groups with the largest LQs in the region are Legal (LQ = 1.46), Education, Training, and Library (1.20), and Healthcare Support (1.20). Occupation groups in the Long Island with the highest average wages per worker are Management ($135,300), Legal ($107,600), and Computer and Mathematical ($85,400). The unemployment rate in the region varied among the major groups from 1.9% among Legal to 8.2% among Food Preparation and Serving Related. Over the next 10 years, the fastest growing occupation group in the Long Island is expected to be Healthcare Support with a +2.3% year-over-year rate of growth. The strongest forecast by number of jobs over this period is expected for Healthcare Practitioners and Technical (+15,879 jobs) and Construction and Extraction (+11,992). Over the same period, the highest replacement demand (occupation demand due to retirements and workers moving from one occupation to another) is expected in Office and Administrative Support (48,135 jobs) and Sales and Related (45,339). Occupation Snapshot in Long Island Current Historical Forecast Four Quarters Ending with 2015q2 2015q2 Change over the Last 5 Avg Ann % Chg in Empl 2010q2-2015q2 Over the Next 10 Years Years SOC Title Empl Avg. Annual Wages 1 LQ Unempl Unempl Rate Empl Long Island New York USA Repl Demand Growth Demand Avg. Annual Growth Percent Management Business and Financial Operations Computer and Mathematical Architecture and Engineering Life, Physical, and Social Science Community and Social Service 60,993 $135, , % 2, % 1.4% 1.6% 14,702 4, % 59,045 $78, , % 2, % 1.2% 1.6% 12,826 5, % 30,796 $85, % 1, % 2.5% 2.5% 4,968 3, % 16,720 $79, % % 0.9% 1.4% 3, % 10,320 $71, % % 0.8% 1.1% 3, % 19,685 $50, % % 0.6% 2.7% 4,562 2, % Legal 13,752 $107, % % 0.0% 0.2% 2,585 1, % Education, Training, and Library Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media 91,946 $59, , % -2, % 0.2% 0.2% 19,303 4, % 16,217 $58, , % -1, % 1.9% 1.1% 5, % 9

10 Occupation Snapshot in Long Island Current Historical Forecast Four Quarters Ending with 2015q2 2015q2 Change over the Last 5 Avg Ann % Chg in Empl 2010q2-2015q2 Over the Next 10 Years Years SOC Title Empl Avg. Annual Wages 1 LQ Unempl Unempl Rate Empl Long Island New York USA Repl Demand Growth Demand Avg. Annual Growth Percent Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Healthcare Support Protective Service Food Preparation and Serving Related Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Personal Care and Service Sales and Related Office and Administrative Support Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Construction and Extraction Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 83,967 $81, , % 3, % 1.3% 1.4% 17,423 15, % 43,256 $31, , % 2, % 1.8% 2.0% 8,356 10, % 22,327 $44, , % 1, % 0.3% 0.5% 6,078 1, % 103,751 $24, , % 15, % 3.8% 2.7% 38,114 6, % 44,954 $31, , % 3, % 1.7% 1.0% 10,620 4, % 47,079 $28, , % 5, % 2.4% 1.9% 11,858 9, % 141,550 $42, , % 6, % 1.6% 1.3% 45,339 5, % 208,240 $37, , % 8, % 1.2% 1.5% 48,135 7, % 2,575 $27, % % 2.8% 1.6% % 53,548 $61, , % 6, % 2.1% 2.2% 10,647 11, % 45,866 $49, , % 2, % 1.0% 1.6% 11,091 3, % Production 54,354 $35, , % % 0.5% 1.8% 12,980-1, % Transportation and Material Moving 75,120 $35, , % 4, % 1.3% 2.2% 17,845 4, % - All 1,246,059 $52, n/a n/a 65, % 1.5% 1.6% 310, , % Source: JobsEQ Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding. 1. Occupation wages are as of 2014 Occupation employment data are estimated via industry employment data and the estimated industry/occupation mix. Industry employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and currently updated through 2014Q4, imputed where necessary with preliminary estimates updated to 2015Q2. Wages by occupation are as of 2014 provided by the BLS and imputed where necessary. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns. 10

11 Industry Clusters A cluster is a geographic concentration of interrelated industries or occupations. The industry cluster in the Long Island with the highest relative concentration is Pharmaceutical with a location quotient of This cluster employs 9,826 workers in the region with an average wage of $53,800. Employment in the Pharmaceutical cluster is projected to expand in the region about 0.2% per year over the next ten years. Location quotient and average wage data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, imputed where necessary, and updated through 2014Q4 with preliminary estimates updated to 2015Q2. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns. Education Levels Expected growth rates for occupations vary by the education and training required. While all employment in the Long Island is projected to grow 0.8% over the next ten years, occupations typically requiring a postgraduate degree are expected to grow 1.3% per year, those requiring a bachelor s degree are forecast to grow 0.7% per year, and occupations typically needing a 2-year degree or certificate are expected to grow 1.4% per year. Employment by occupation data are estimates are as of 2015Q2. Education levels of occupations are based on BLS assignments. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns. 11

12 Region Definition Long Island is defined as the following counties: Nassau County, New York; Suffolk County, New York 12

13 FAQ What is a location quotient? A location quotient (LQ) is a measurement of concentration in comparison to the nation. An LQ of 1.00 indicates a region has the same concentration of an industry (or occupation) as the nation. An LQ of 2.00 would mean the region has twice the expected employment compared to the nation and an LQ of 0.50 would mean the region has half the expected employment in comparison to the nation. What is replacement demand? Replacement demand is the number of jobs required due to replacements retirements and turnover resulting from workers moving from one occupation into another. Note that replacement demand does not include all turnover it does not include when workers stay in the same occupation but switch employers. The replacement demand shown in this report may also be understated; thus, it can be taken to be a minimum measure of the number of workers who will need to be trained for the occupation due to replacements. The total projected demand for an occupation is the sum of the replacement demand and the growth demand (which is the increase or decrease of jobs in an occupation expected due to expansion or contraction of the overall number of jobs in that occupation). What is a cluster? A cluster is a geographic concentration of interrelated industries or occupations. If a regional cluster has a location quotient of 1.25 or greater, the region is considered to possess a competitive advantage in that cluster. What is the difference between industry wages and occupation wages? Industry wages and occupation wages are estimated via separate data sets, often the time periods being reported do not align, and wages are defined slightly differently in the two systems (for example, certain bonuses are included in the industry wages but not the occupation wages). It is therefore common that estimates of the average industry wages and average occupation wages in a region do not match exactly. What is NAICS? The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) is used to classify business establishments according to the type of economic activity. The NAICS Code comprises six levels, from the all industry level to the 6-digit level. The first two digits define the top level category, known as the sector, which is the level examined in this report. What is SOC? The Standard Occupational Classification system (SOC) is used to classify workers into occupational categories. All workers are classified into one of over 820 occupations according to their occupational definition. To facilitate classification, occupations are combined to form 23 major groups, 96 minor groups, and 449 occupation groups. Each occupation group includes detailed occupations requiring similar job duties, skills, education, or experience. About This Report This report and all data herein were produced by JobsEQ, a product of Chmura Economics & Analytics. The information contained herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable. However, we cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. 13