Economic Overview Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA. October 27, 2017

Transcription

1 Economic Overview Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA October 27, 2017

2 DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE...3 EMPLOYMENT TRENDS...5 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE...5 WAGE TRENDS...6 COST OF LIVING INDEX...6 INDUSTRY SNAPSHOT...7 OCCUPATION SNAPSHOT...9 INDUSTRY CLUSTERS EDUCATION LEVELS GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT REGION DEFINITION FAQ

3 Demographic Profile In 2016, the population in the Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA was 2,474,314. Between 2006 and 2016, the region s population grew at an annual average rate of 2.1%. The region has a civilian labor force of 1,223,633 with a participation rate of 67.2%. Of individuals 25 to 64 in the Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA, 34.4% have a bachelor s degree or higher which compares with 28.2% in the nation. The median household income in the Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA is $53,076 and the median house value is $166,000. Summary 1 Percent Value Gastonia, NC-SC MSA Mecklenburg County, North Charlotte Regional Collaborative Charlotte- Concord- Charlotte- Concord- Gastonia, NC-SC MSA Mecklenburg County, North Charlotte Regional Collaborative Demographics Population 6 2,474,314 1,054,835 4,410,640 Population Annual Average Growth 6 2.1% 2.4% 1.5% 46,508 22,333 61,398 Median Age 2, Under 18 Years % 25.4% 24.6% 567, ,338 1,004, to 24 Years 4 8.8% 9.6% 9.1% 194,255 88, , to 34 Years % 16.8% 12.9% 307, , , to 44 Years % 15.8% 14.6% 341, , , to 54 Years % 13.8% 14.6% 322, , , to 64 Years % 9.8% 11.8% 242,659 89, , to 74 Years 4 6.3% 5.0% 7.2% 138,832 45, , Years, and Over 4 4.6% 3.9% 5.3% 102,123 35, ,892 Race: White % 55.3% 72.4% 1,511, ,946 2,957,679 Race: Black or African American % 30.8% 19.2% 484, , ,772 Race: American Indian and Alaska Native 4 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 10,155 4,261 16,813 Race: Asian 4 2.7% 4.6% 2.2% 60,359 42,352 90,789 Race: Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander 4 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 1, ,036 Race: Some Other Race 4 4.6% 6.2% 3.8% 102,531 57, ,436 Race: Two or More Races 4 2.1% 2.6% 1.9% 46,852 23,484 77,514 Hispanic or Latino (of any race) 4 9.1% 12.2% 7.5% 202, , ,273 Economic Labor Force Participation Rate and Size (civilian population 16 years and over) 67.2% 71.7% 63.6% 1,223, ,638 2,123,998 Armed Forces Labor Force 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1, ,138 Veterans, Age % 4.7% 5.6% 81,968 30, ,358 Median Household Income 2 $53,076 $56,854 $48,709 Per Capita Income $28,946 $33,169 $26,180 3

4 Summary 1 Percent Value Mecklenburg County, North Charlotte Regional Collaborative Charlotte- Concord- Gastonia, NC-SC MSA Charlotte- Concord- Gastonia, NC-SC MSA Mecklenburg County, North Charlotte Regional Collaborative Poverty Level (of all people) 14.9% 15.2% 16.4% 343, , ,517 Households Receiving Food Stamps 12.8% 12.2% 14.0% 111,945 46, ,204 Mean Commute Time (minutes) Commute via Public Transportation 1.8% 3.4% 1.2% 19,275 16,606 21,953 Union Membership 3 3.9% 3.7% 3.0% Educational Attainment, Age No High School Diploma 11.0% 9.9% 12.6% 140,010 55, ,131 High School Graduate 23.5% 17.9% 26.4% 297,590 99, ,551 Some College, No Degree 21.9% 20.4% 21.8% 278, , ,593 Associate's Degree 9.2% 7.6% 9.7% 116,276 42, ,452 Bachelor's Degree 23.8% 30.0% 20.0% 302, , ,544 Postgraduate Degree 10.6% 14.2% 9.4% 134,531 78, ,250 Housing Housing Units 961, ,598 1,804,313 Median House Value (of owner-occupied units) 2 $166,000 $184,800 $148,613 Homeowner Vacancy 2.0% 1.7% 2.0% 11,556 3,723 22,552 Rental Vacancy 6.3% 5.4% 6.9% 20,261 9,403 39,389 Renter-Occupied Housing Units (% of Occupied Units) 34.2% 42.5% 32.6% 298, , ,120 Occupied Housing Units with No Vehicle Available (% of Occupied Units) 5.8% 6.9% 6.3% 50,662 26, ,460 Social Enrolled in Grade 12 (% of total population) 1.4% 1.3% 1.3% 32,415 13,259 56,678 Disconnected Youth 5 3.3% 2.4% 3.6% 4,093 1,226 8,122 Children in Single Parent Families (% of all children) 34.7% 36.7% 35.8% 192,211 86, ,237 With a Disability, Age % 7.6% 11.3% 141,750 49, ,813 With a Disability, Age 18-64, Labor Force Participation Rate and Size 41.6% 48.0% 36.9% 58,990 23, ,277 Foreign Born 9.5% 14.3% 7.5% 221, , ,603 Speak English Less Than Very Well (population 5 yrs and over) 5.6% 8.5% 4.6% 122,616 78, ,290 Source: JobsEQ 1. ACS , unless noted otherwise 2. Median values for certain aggregate regions (such as MSAs) may be estimated as the weighted averages of the median values from the composing counties ; Current Population Survey, unionstats.com, and Chmura; county- and zip-level data are best estimates based upon industry-, MSA-, and state-level data 4. Census Disconnected Youth are year olds who are (1) not in school, (2) not high school graduates, and (3) either unemployed or not in the labor force. 6. Census 2016, annual average growth rate since

5 Employment Trends As of 2017Q2, total employment for the Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA was 1,226,567 (based on a fourquarter moving average). Over the year ending 2017Q2, employment increased 1.9% in the region. Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2016Q4 with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q2. Unemployment Rate The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA was 3.9% as of August The regional unemployment rate was lower than the national rate of 4.5%. One year earlier, in August 2016, the unemployment rate in the Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA was 4.7%. Unemployment rate data are from the Local Area Unemployment Statistics, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and updated through August

6 Wage Trends The average worker in the Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA earned annual wages of $53,393 as of 2017Q2. Average annual wages per worker increased 2.1% in the region during the preceding four quarters. For comparison purposes, annual average wages were $54,335 in the nation as of 2017Q2. Annual average wages per worker data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2016Q4 with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q2. Cost of Living Index The Cost of Living Index estimates the relative price levels for consumer goods and services. When applied to wages and salaries, the result is a measure of relative purchasing power. The cost of living is 5.3% lower in Charlotte- Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA than the U.S. average. Cost of Living Information Annual Average Salary Cost of Living Index (Base US) US Purchasing Power Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA $53, $56,381 Mecklenburg County, North $61, $63,952 Charlotte Regional Collaborative $48, $51,437 USA $53, $53,284 Source: JobsEQ Data as of 2017Q2 Cost of Living per C2ER, data as of 2017q1, imputed by Chmura where necessary. 6

7 Industry Snapshot The largest sector in the Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA is Health Care and Social Assistance, employing 139,329 workers. The next-largest sectors in the region are Retail Trade (133,124 workers) and Accommodation and Food Services (108,063). High location quotients (LQs) indicate sectors in which a region has high concentrations of employment compared to the national average. The sectors with the largest LQs in the region are Management of Companies and Enterprises (LQ = 2.20), Finance and Insurance (1.49), and Wholesale Trade (1.26). Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2016Q4 with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q2. Sectors in the Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA with the highest average wages per worker are Management of Companies and Enterprises ($114,841), Finance and Insurance ($106,339), and Utilities ($99,684). Regional sectors with the best job growth (or most moderate job losses) over the last 5 years are Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (+21,865 jobs), Accommodation and Food Services (+21,020), and Retail Trade (+16,975). Over the next 10 years, employment in the Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA is projected to expand by 181,382 jobs. The fastest growing sector in the region is expected to be Health Care and Social Assistance with a +2.4% year-over-year rate of growth. The strongest forecast by number of jobs over this period is expected for Health Care and Social Assistance (+36,969 jobs), Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (+19,937), and Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services (+17,504). 7

8 Current Historical Forecast Four Quarters Ending with 2017q2 Change over the Last 5 Average Annual % Change in Employment 2012q2-2017q2 Over the Next 10 Years Years NAICS Industry Empl Avg. Annual Wages Location Quotient Empl Charlotte- Concord- Gastonia, NC-SC MSA Mecklenb urg County, North Charlotte Regional Collabora tive Approx Repl Demand Growth Demand Avg. Annual Growth Percent Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 6,245 $40, % 2.6% -0.1% 2, % 659 $65, % 4.4% 1.6% % 22 Utilities 4,744 $99, % 2.1% -0.1% 1, % 23 Construction 73,681 $54, , % 6.4% 4.7% 15,850 16, % 31 Manufacturing 106,570 $57, , % 0.9% 1.8% 24,535-1, % 42 Wholesale Trade 60,568 $68, , % 3.1% 2.8% 14,206 8, % 44 Retail Trade 133,124 $29, , % 3.2% 2.4% 43,472 16, % 48 Transportation and Warehousing 57,431 $50, , % 4.9% 4.9% 15,463 4, % 51 Information 29,030 $85, , % 3.4% 2.5% 7,336 3, % 52 Finance and Insurance 72,565 $106, , % 3.4% 2.5% 18,368 12, % Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 20,517 $60, , % 4.9% 4.2% 4,856 2, % 81,892 $78, , % 5.9% 5.3% 18,718 19, % 39,515 $114, , % 3.4% 3.4% 8,849 4, % 93,543 $38, , % 2.9% 2.6% 22,693 17, % 61 Educational Services 75,193 $41, , % -0.2% 0.5% 16,573 9, % Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services Other Services (except Public Administration) 139,329 $52, , % 3.3% 2.2% 29,833 36, % 29,973 $43, , % 4.7% 4.6% 9,739 4, % 108,063 $18, , % 3.9% 3.7% 40,041 14, % 53,877 $30, , % 3.4% 1.3% 14,303 7, % 92 Public Administration 40,049 $49, , % 1.6% 0.9% 10,114 3, % 99 Unclassified 0 n/a n/a n/a n/a All Industries 1,226,567 $53, , % 3.5% 2.6% 317, , % Source: JobsEQ Employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and imputed where necessary. Data are updated through 2016Q4 with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q2. Forecast employment growth uses national projections adapted for regional growth patterns. 8

9 Occupation Snapshot The largest major occupation group in the Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA is Office and Administrative Support, employing 187,280 workers. The next-largest occupation groups in the region are Sales and Related (139,000 workers) and Food Preparation and Serving Related (103,003). High location quotients (LQs) indicate occupation groups in which a region has high concentrations of employment compared to the national average. The major groups with the largest LQs in the region are Computer and Mathematical (LQ = 1.21), Business and Financial Operations (1.20), and Transportation and Material Moving (1.13). Occupation groups in the Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA with the highest average wages per worker are Management ($129,100), Legal ($109,500), and Computer and Mathematical ($86,600). The unemployment rate in the region varied among the major groups from 0.9% among Legal to 7.4% among Food Preparation and Serving Related. Over the next 10 years, the fastest growing occupation group in the Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA is expected to be Healthcare Support with a +2.9% year-over-year rate of growth. The strongest forecast by number of jobs over this period is expected for Office and Administrative Support (+19,540 jobs) and Sales and Related (+18,553). Over the same period, the highest replacement demand (occupation demand due to retirements and workers moving from one occupation to another) is expected in Sales and Related (45,367 jobs) and Office and Administrative Support (43,631). Occupation Snapshot in Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA Current Historical Forecast Four Quarters Ending with 2017q2 2017q2 Change over the Last 5 Avg Ann % Chg in Empl 2012q2-2017q2 Over the Next 10 Years Years SOC Title Empl Avg. Annual Wages 1 LQ Unempl Unempl Rate Empl Charlott e- Concord- Gastonia, NC-SC MSA Mecklen burg County, North Charlott e Regional Collabor ative Current Online Job Ads 2 Repl Demand Growth Demand Avg. Annual Growth Percent 11- Management 71,890 $129, , % 10, % 3.5% 2.6% 6,145 23,513 11, % Business and Financial Operations Computer and Mathematical Architecture and Engineering Life, Physical, and Social Science Community and Social Service 75,265 $77, , % 12, % 3.6% 3.2% 5,134 18,225 15, % 43,008 $86, , % 10, % 5.9% 4.9% 9,914 7,004 10, % 18,131 $79, % 2, % 2.1% 2.3% 1,315 4,858 2, % 6,337 $66, % 1, % 3.7% 2.8% 533 2,101 1, % 15,112 $45, % 1, % 2.7% 1.2% 586 3,535 2, % Legal 8,503 $109, % % 2.2% 1.6% 283 1,820 1, % 9

10 Occupation Snapshot in Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA Current Historical Forecast Four Quarters Ending with 2017q2 2017q2 Change over the Last 5 Avg Ann % Chg in Empl 2012q2-2017q2 Over the Next 10 Years Years SOC Title Empl Avg. Annual Wages 1 LQ Unempl Unempl Rate Empl Charlott e- Concord- Gastonia, NC-SC MSA Mecklen burg County, North Charlott e Regional Collabor ative Current Online Job Ads 2 Repl Demand Growth Demand Avg. Annual Growth Percent Education, Training, and Library Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Healthcare Support Protective Service Food Preparation and Serving Related Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Personal Care and Service Sales and Related Office and Administrative Support Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Construction and Extraction Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 51- Production Transportation and Material Moving - All 1,226, ,565 $42, , % 2, % 0.1% 0.6% 1,587 12,680 7, % 20,439 $53, % 2, % 2.8% 1.8% 986 7,585 2, % 61,324 $79, % 5, % 3.0% 1.8% 3,315 14,295 13, % 29,650 $28, , % 3, % 3.4% 2.1% 1,276 7,008 9, % 26,872 $36, , % 3, % 3.5% 2.1% 478 6,726 3, % 103,003 $22, , % 18, % 3.7% 3.4% 5,318 41,798 14, % 39,668 $25, , % 3, % 1.9% 1.6% 1,604 9,562 5, % 40,909 $25, , % 5, % 3.3% 2.7% 1,442 13,670 8, % 139,000 $44, , % 19, % 3.5% 2.7% 11,332 45,367 18, % 187,280 $36, , % 27, % 3.5% 2.8% 6,751 43,631 19, % 2,879 $30, % % 3.0% 0.8% 20 1, % 56,053 $38, , % 11, % 5.6% 4.1% 1,486 10,854 11, % 50,752 $46, , % 8, % 4.4% 3.0% 3,277 13,232 7, % 81,362 $36, , % 8, % 2.1% 1.9% 2,548 22,924 1, % 93,562 $34, , % 18, % 4.2% 3.8% 4,547 26,324 11, % $48, n/a n/a 176, % 3.5% 2.6% 69, , , % Source: JobsEQ Data as of 2017Q2 unless noted otherwise Note: Figures may not sum due to rounding. 1. Occupation wages are as of 2016 and should be taken as the average for all Covered Employment 2. Data represent found online ads active within the last thirty days in any zip code intersecting or within the selected region; data represents a sampling rather than the complete universe of postings. 10

11 Occupation employment data are estimated via industry employment data and the estimated industry/occupation mix. Industry employment data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and currently updated through 2016Q4, imputed where necessary with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q2. Wages by occupation are as of 2016 provided by the BLS and imputed where necessary. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns. 11

12 Industry Clusters A cluster is a geographic concentration of interrelated industries or occupations. The industry cluster in the Charlotte- Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA with the highest relative concentration is Textile/Leather with a location quotient of This cluster employs 8,269 workers in the region with an average wage of $39,424. Employment in the Textile/Leather cluster is projected to contract in the region about 2.4% per year over the next ten years. Location quotient and average wage data are derived from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, imputed where necessary, and updated through 2016Q4 with preliminary estimates updated to 2017Q2. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns. Education Levels Expected growth rates for occupations vary by the education and training required. While all employment in the Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA is projected to grow 1.4% over the next ten years, occupations typically requiring a postgraduate degree are expected to grow 2.0% per year, those requiring a bachelor s degree are forecast to grow 1.7% per year, and occupations typically needing a 2-year degree or certificate are expected to grow 1.7% per year. Employment by occupation data are estimates are as of 2017Q2. Education levels of occupations are based on BLS assignments. Forecast employment growth uses national projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adapted for regional growth patterns. 12

13 Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total value of goods and services produced by a region. In 2016, nominal GDP in the Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA expanded 5.1%. This follows growth of 6.8% in As of 2016, total GDP in the Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA was $154,081,646,000. Gross Domestic Product data are provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, imputed by Chmura where necessary, updated through Of the sectors in the Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA, Finance and Insurance contributed the largest portion of GDP in 2016, $21,375,718,000 The next-largest contributions came from Real Estate and Rental and Leasing ($20,327,300,000); Manufacturing ($19,804,013,000); and Health Care and Social Assistance ($12,308,386,000). Gross Domestic Product data are provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, imputed by Chmura where necessary, updated through

14 Region Definition Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC MSA is defined as the following counties: Cabarrus County, North ; Gaston County, North ; Iredell County, North ; Lincoln County, North ; Mecklenburg County, North ; Rowan County, North ; Union County, North ; Chester County, South ; Lancaster County, South ; York County, South Charlotte Regional Collaborative is defined as the following counties: Alexander County, North ; Alleghany County, North ; Anson County, North ; Ashe County, North ; Burke County, North ; Cabarrus County, North ; Catawba County, North ; Cleveland County, North ; Gaston County, North ; Iredell County, North ; Lincoln County, North ; Mecklenburg County, North ; Polk County, North ; Rowan County, North ; Rutherford County, North ; Stanly County, North ; Union County, North ; Wilkes County, North ; Anderson County, South ; Cherokee County, South ; Chester County, South ; Chesterfield County, South ; Greenville County, South ; Lancaster County, South ; Marlboro County, South ; Pickens County, South ; Spartanburg County, South ; Union County, South ; York County, South 14

15 FAQ What is a location quotient? A location quotient (LQ) is a measurement of concentration in comparison to the nation. An LQ of 1.00 indicates a region has the same concentration of an industry (or occupation) as the nation. An LQ of 2.00 would mean the region has twice the expected employment compared to the nation and an LQ of 0.50 would mean the region has half the expected employment in comparison to the nation. What is replacement demand? Replacement demand is the number of jobs required due to replacements retirements and turnover resulting from workers moving from one occupation into another. Note that replacement demand does not include all turnover it does not include when workers stay in the same occupation but switch employers. The replacement demand shown in this report may also be understated; thus, it can be taken to be a minimum measure of the number of workers who will need to be trained for the occupation due to replacements. The total projected demand for an occupation is the sum of the replacement demand and the growth demand (which is the increase or decrease of jobs in an occupation expected due to expansion or contraction of the overall number of jobs in that occupation). What is a cluster? A cluster is a geographic concentration of interrelated industries or occupations. If a regional cluster has a location quotient of 1.25 or greater, the region is considered to possess a competitive advantage in that cluster. What is the difference between industry wages and occupation wages? Industry wages and occupation wages are estimated via separate data sets, often the time periods being reported do not align, and wages are defined slightly differently in the two systems (for example, certain bonuses are included in the industry wages but not the occupation wages). It is therefore common that estimates of the average industry wages and average occupation wages in a region do not match exactly. What is NAICS? The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) is used to classify business establishments according to the type of economic activity. The NAICS Code comprises six levels, from the all industry level to the 6-digit level. The first two digits define the top level category, known as the sector, which is the level examined in this report. What is SOC? The Standard Occupational Classification system (SOC) is used to classify workers into occupational categories. All workers are classified into one of over 820 occupations according to their occupational definition. To facilitate classification, occupations are combined to form 23 major groups, 96 minor groups, and 449 occupation groups. Each occupation group includes detailed occupations requiring similar job duties, skills, education, or experience. About This Report This report and all data herein were produced by JobsEQ, a product of Chmura Economics & Analytics. The information contained herein was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable. However, we cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. 15