AGREED STATEMENT OF FACTS

Transcription

1 AGREED STATEMENT OF FACTS Ontario Municipal Board Hearing in the Matter of City of Hamilton Airport Employment Growth District (AEGD) Secondary Plan OMB Case and File Number: PL January 2, 2013 HEMSON

2 Pursuant to the Procedural Order, a meeting of experts was held with respect to the Phase 2 issue of employment area land requirements: Date: Tuesday November 20, 2012 Location: 30 St. Patrick Street, Suite 1000 Present: Mr. Gary Davidson Mr. Antony Lorius, Hemson Consulting Ltd. Mr. Sameer Patel, Tate Economic Research Arising out of this meeting were a number of topic areas where some agreement was reached. These are summarized below. 1. Employment Forecasts All agreed that the forecasts shown in the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe are for the City of Hamilton to reach a total employment of 300,000 in The updated forecasts shown in the Greater Golden Horseshoe Growth Forecasts to 2041 : Technical Report, Hemson Consulting Ltd., November 2012, show forecast higher levels of employment in 2031 and Method For Determining Employment Area Land Demand Mr. Patel and Mr. Lorius agreed that the method for determining employment area land demand shown in the witness statement of Mr. Lorius is appropriate. Mr. Davidson did not agree. 3. Greenfield Density Target Mr. Patel and Mr. Lorius agreed that the Growth Plan greenfield density target of 50 residents and jobs per ha is a combined residential and employment density that municipalities must plan to achieve over the entire designated greenfield area. Mr. Davidson did not agree. 4. Employment Area Land Supply Mr. Patel and Mr. Lorius agreed that the source of the land supply information should be the City of Hamilton. Mr. Davidson did not agree. HEMSON

3 2 Summary of Agreed Facts Arising out of Nov 20, 2012 Experts Meeting City of Hamilton Airport Employment Growth District (AEGD) Secondary Plan Topic Mr. Davidson Mr. Lorius Mr. Patel The Growth Plan employment forecast shows Hamilton reaching a total employment of 300,000 in Updated forecasts show higher figures for 2031 and The method for determining employment area land demand shown in the Witness Statement of Mr. Lorius is appropriate Growth Plan density target is a blended residential and employment density that applies to the entire designated greenfield area within Hamilton. The source of the land supply information should be the City of Hamilton Agree Agree Agree Disagree Agree Agree Disagree Agree Agree Disagree Agree Agree Following the experts meeting and exchange of Reply Witness Statements, Mr. Lorius and Mr. Patel have also reached an agreement on the amount of employment area lands required to meet the employment forecasts to net ha. This figure is slightly lower than the figure of 575 net ha shown in the Reply Witness Statement of Mr. Lorius for the reasons given below. 1. No significant amount of growth has been allocated to the Airport facility in the land budget analysis. Most of the forecast employment land employment growth was allocated to the City s designated urban employment area lands the 95% share shown in Table 3 of the Witness Statement of Mr. Lorius. The remaining 5% would be in scattered urban locations and rural areas. HEMSON

4 3 2. The issue of Airport employment growth was not specifically addressed in the 2009 land budget. Although an expectation of limited growth could, theoretically, fit within the remaining 5% category, both Mr. Patel and Mr. Lorius agree that a more specific adjustment should be made to account for the potential for more than limited employment growth at the facility. Current forecasts, however, vary widely from extremely optimistic to more moderate outlooks. a. One of the more optimistic outlooks is described in the 2009 Airport land needs report, which identifies a 2030 target of 9.4 million passengers as appropriate for the facility. This represents significant growth from the 2008 passenger volume of approximately 550, b. A similarly optimistic outlook is described in the 2009 Economic Impact Report. In this report, it is suggested that, by 2025, the Airport could generate up to 6,954 direct person-years of employment, which again represents significant growth from the 2008 total of 1, c. A more moderate outlook is shown in the 2004 and 2011 Airport master plans, the latter in particular anticipating relatively modest growth in aircraft movement, from a total of 54,900 in 2015 to 67,200 in Mr. Patel and Mr. Lorius agree that optimistic outlooks are useful for economic development and marketing purposes but are not necessarily appropriate for land budgeting within a Growth Plan context. There are also many uncertainties that could affect future air traffic at the Hamilton airport that are difficult if not impossible to predict. As a result, it is further agreed that a more moderate forecast be incorporated into the analysis. 4. According to the City of Hamilton, approximately 800 jobs were accommodated on the Airport site as of Mr Patel and Mr. Lorius agree that a doubling of the 2006 employment is appropriate for land budgeting. For the purposes of this analysis, all of this growth is attributed to employment land employment. The forecast of employment growth in the designated employment areas has been adjusted. The forecast result is shown in a revised Table 3 from the Witness Statement of Mr. Lorius below. 1 City of Hamilton Airport Employment Growth District Phase 2 Airport Market Analysis and Land Needs Report, Dillon Consulting Ltd., 2009, page City of Hamilton Airport Employment Growth District Phase 2 Economic Impact Report, Dillon Consulting Ltd., 2009, Executive Summary pages i-iii. 3 John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport May 2011 Master Plan, Genivar, Executive Summary, page 2. HEMSON

5 4 Employment Growth in Designated Employment Areas City of Hamilton, 2006 to 2031 Table 3 (Revised) Type of Employment Component of Estimate Employment Land Major Office Population- Related Total Employment Growth ,000 13,000 31,800 80,800 Share of Growth in Employment Areas 95% 35% 5% 50% Employment Growth in Employment Areas 34,200 4,600 1,600 40,400 Airport Growth Forecast for Land Budget Purposes Adjusted Growth in Employment Areas 33,400 4,600 1,600 39,600 Source: Witness Statement of Antony Lorius 5. The revised forecast translates into a reduction in the demand for designated employment area lands from the original 960 net ha to 940 net ha. This is shown in a revised Table 4 from the Witness Statement of Mr. Lorius below. Table 4 (Revised) Forecast Land Requirement for the Designated Employment Areas City of Hamilton, 2006 to 2031 Type of Employment Component of Employment Major Population- Estimate Land Office Related Total Employment Growth in Designated Employment Areas Density Factor (Jobs per net ha) Resulting Land Requirement (Net ha) 33,400 4,600 1,600 39, Source: Witness Statement of Antony Lorius HEMSON

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