Ul-V. hate, kpril 23, 7joN. Growth Forecasts Review - Recommended Growth Option

Transcription

1 Ul-V RECEIVED CLERK'S DEPT. Albion, 1840 Alton, 1820 Belfountain, 1825 Bolton, 1823 **- Caledon East, 1821 Caledon Village, 1826 Campbell's Cross, c Cataract, 1858 Cheltenham, 1827 Claude, c Inglewood, 1883 Mayfield West, 2006 Melville, 1831 Mono Road, 1871 Mono Mills, 1819 Palgrave, 1846 Sandhill, 1839 Terra Cotta, 1855 Tullamore, c Victoria, c Wildfield, 1833 March 24, 2013 Ms. Kathryn Lockyer, Clerk Region of Peel 10 Peel Centre Drive Brampton, Ontario L6T4B9 Dear Ms. Lockyer: RE: REG. NO.: FILE NO.: _ MAR BRAMPTON CITY COUNCIL hate, kpril 23, 7joN Growth Forecasts Review - Recommended Growth Option At the regular meeting of Council held on March IB, 2014, Council passed a resolution regarding Growth Forecasts Review - Recommended Growth Option. The following resolution was adopted: That Report regarding Growth Forecasts Review Recommended Growth Option, be received; and That the Region of Peel be requested to adjust Caledon's 2031 population from 108,000 to 113,000 persons, and 2031 employment from 46,000 to 49,000 jobs in accordance with Amendment 2 of the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe; and That the Region of Peel use a total population of 146,000 persons and a total employment of 73,000 jobs for the Town of Caledon by 2041 in preparation of a Regional Official Plan Amendment that conforms to Growth Plan Amendment 2; and That the Region of Peel set a reasonable Greenfield density target for Caledon that will support a strengthened assessment base for both the Town and the Region without increasing Greenfield residential density; and That the Region of Peel pursue a change of provincial policy to delink employment development from the minimum Greenfield density requirement in the Growth Plan; and That copies of this report be forwarded to the Region of Peel, and the Cities of Brampton and Mississauga for their information. Attached please find a copy of Report for your information. Thank you. Administration 6311 Old Church Road Caledon, ON L7C 1J6 T F

2 u-z Yours truly, fit Carey degorter Director of Administration/Town Clerk carey.degoifef(5)xaledon.ca End. cc: City of Mississauga City of Brampton Kathie Kurtz, Senior Policy Planner

3 Ul-3 To: From: Mayor and Members of Council Development Approval & Planning Policy Department Meeting: Subject: Growth Forecasts Review - Recommended Growth Option RECOMMENDATIONS That Report regarding Growth Forecasts Review - Recommended Growth Option, be received; and That the Region of Peel be requested to adjust Caledon's 2031 population from 108,000 to 113,000 persons, and 2031 employment from 46,000 to 49,000 jobs in accordance with Amendment 2 of the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe; That the Region of Peel use a total population of 146,000 persons and a total employment of 73,000 jobs for the Town of Caledon by 2041 in preparation of a Regional Official Plan Amendment that conforms to Growth Plan Amendment 2; That the Region of Peel set a reasonable Greenfield density target for Caledon that will support a strengthened assessment base for both the Town and the Region without increasing Greenfield residential density; That the Region of Peel pursue a change of provincial policy to delink employment development from the minimum Greenfield density requirement in the Growth Plan; and That copies of this report be forwarded to the Region of Peel, and the Cities of Brampton and Mississauga for their information. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Based on updated Census information in 2006 and 2011 and a 2010 review of economic and social parameters, the government of Ontario revised the population and employment forecasts in Schedule 3 through Amendment 2 to the Growth Plan in June Amendment 2 introduced new population and employment forecasts for Peel Region for 2031 (2031 B) which were different from the original forecasts (2031 A), and set new population and employment targets for the Region by 2041: 2031 A: population 1,640,000, employment 870,000 - Growth Plan B: population 1,770,000, employment 880,000 - Amendment 2 to the Growth Plan 2041: population 1,970,000, employment 970,000 - Amendment 2 to the Growth Plan Page 1 of 19

4 U\ -4 The amendment provided Peel Region with an additional growth of 130,000 persons and 10,000 jobs by Itforecasts an additional growth of 200,000 persons and 90,000 jobs by The Region of Peel has initiated a Regional Official Plan review that will allocate the growth to the Area Municipalities. It has asked the Area Municipalities to provide their desired growth numbers as input into the Regional growth allocation exercise. The Town of Caledon commenced its Growth Forecasts Review in March, Watson &Associates Economists Ltd. was retained to prepare the Caledon growth forecasts. Staff has discussed issues related to the Growth Forecasts Review in two Council workshops. The first Council workshop held on July 9, 2013 discussed the drivers of growth, the potential capacity of the "White-belf lands, and evaluation criteria for assessing long-term growth scenarios. Five Growth Options were presented to the second Council workshop on September 17, 2013 for discussion and further analysis. The five Growth Options were presented to Council on January 21, 2014 through report DP Growth Forecasts Review - Growth Options, which recommended a preferred Option based on an analysis using the following criteria (see pages 14,15 and 16 for a detailed explanation): Growth Assimilation: annual housing and employment growth relative to historical trends; Fiscal Sustainability: achieving a desired split between residential and non residential tax ratio by 2031 and 2041; Population and Employment Balance: employment activity rates, live/work relationships and commuting potential; Planning Policy: building compact and complete communities; and Community character: achieving Greenfield density targets. Based on these analyses, report DP recommended that the Region of Peel consider the following growth scenario for the Town of Caledon: 2031: population: 113,000, employment: 49,000; 2041: population: 146,000, employment: 73,000. Council adopted Resolution referring the report back to staff to conduct additional public consultation, and directing that a Special Council meeting be held on February 20, The Special Council meeting was held as directed by Council and members of the public provided comments. The comments largely consisted of requests to increase or decrease the forecasts to allow or not allow for the designation of lands as part of settlement areas, and requests for further information regarding the implications of the Page 2 of 19

5 U-5 different Growth Options. Much ofthis information being requested is site-specific and not available. It will only be available once land to accommodate the forecasted growth is identified through a Municipal Comprehensive Review. A Municipal Comprehensive Review is a process required bythe Growth Plan forthe identification ofsettlement areas, the expansion ofsettlement area boundaries, and the conversion of lands within employment areas to non-employment uses. In the case of Caledon, it is a process ofan Official Plan review/amendment initiated bythe Town to: determine how best to accommodate growth, implement Peel Region Official Plan policies, and protect provincial interests after Peel Region has allocated the growth to the Town; identify and utilize intensification opportunities; integrate land use planning with the planning for infrastructure and public service facilities; and Coordinate with Peel Region and neighbouring municipalities. After considering the public comments, staff is convinced that the evaluation process described in report DP continues to be valid, and thus the original recommendation based on Growth Option 5 remains the most desirable Option: 2031: population: 113,000, employment: 49, : population: 146,000, employment: 73,000 The recommended Growth Option will see the Town's population growing at 2.6 percent per year between 2031 and 2041, less than the population growth rate the Town experienced between 2001 and The recommended growth scenario would also result in the Town's employment growing at 4.0% per year between 2031 and The recommended scenario will allow the Town to achieve a more desirable residential/non-residential tax ratio of 71/29 by 2041 than what exists today at 82/18. It will allow the Town to continue to plan for growth in areas away from sensitive resources, achieve efficient development patterns, and optimize the use of land, resources and public investment in infrastructure and public service facilities, as suggested in the Provincial Policy Statement (2005). Particularly, it will allow the Town to continue to plan for "compact" and "complete" communities to ensure long-term prosperity, environmental health and social well-being. DISCUSSION Purpose (background) The Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe (2006) assigned growth numbers to the upper and single tier municipalities on Schedule 3 and required the upper tier municipalities to allocate them among the area municipalities. Peel Region Official Plan Page 3 of 19

6 Ll~ (o Amendment 24 (ROPA 24) distributed the total growth numbers for the Region of Peel contained in Schedule 3 of the Growth Plan to the Area Municipalities. As the Growth Plan requires the Region to consider intensification first before designating new Greenfield land as a means of controlling urban sprawl, the Region prepared a Land Budget to demonstrate that the intensification target and the Greenfield density target in the Growth Plan are both met. The ROPA 24 Land Budget distributed growth to the Area Municipalities among the Built-up Area, the Designated Greenfield Area and the Rural Area. The current population and employment growth numbers for the Town of Caledon for 2021 and 2031 were put in place through ROPA 24, which was approved by the Ontario Municipal Board (OMB) on June 25, 2012: 2021: population: 87,000, employment: 40, : population: 108,000, employment: 46,000 The total population and employment growth that Caledon is allowed under ROPA 24 was further distributed to its communities and rural areas through Official Plan Amendment 226 (OPA 226), which was approved by the OMB on October 15, The Caledon Land Budget associated with OPA226 indicated the growth that would occur in the Built-up area, as defined by the province, designated Greenfield area, new Greenfield area, and rural area. Based on the growth numbers in OPA 226, the Town is presently undertaking settlement area boundary expansion studies in the Bojton area, Mayfield West, and the Alton Village Study which may result in a settlement boundary expansion. The province recently amended Schedule 3 ofthe Growth Plan for. the Greater Golden Horseshoe (Growth Plan Amendment2), adding revised growth numbers for the Region of Peel for 2031 and new growth numbers for The original 2031 numbers were referred to as "2031 A" and the new 2031 numbers were referred to as "2031 B". Growth Plan Amendment 2 came into effect on June 17, 2013 and requires the affected municipal Official Plans to be brought into conformity atthe time oftheir next Official Plan review. Growth Plan Amendment 2 has set new population and employment forecasts for Peel Region: 2031 A: population 1,640,000, employment 870, B: population 1,770,000, employment 880, : population 1,970,000, employment 970,000 Planning staffreviewed the Amendment and its implications in report DP Growth Plan Amendment 2 Comments dated February 12, In that report, staff listed three reasons that resulted in the different forecasts for Peel Region: CALEDON Page 4 of 19

7 l~l~7 o The 2011 census population for Peel was higher than the 2011 forecast inthe Growth Plan by 3%. The actual census population was 34,000 higher than the forecast. «The economic and social parameters used in the forecasts are based on the January 2010 Ministry of Finance report "Ontario's Long Term Report on the Economy", which forecasts a positive provincial economic outlook. The assumptions regarding fertility, mortality and immigration have been updated based on the 2006 and 2011 censuses. Fertility rates are higherand life expectancy is longer than assumed in the 2005 forecasts for the Growth Plan. Immigration is expected to increase in the Greater Golden Horseshoe. Peel Region initiated its Official Plan Reviewin early A series of public open houses were held in May 2013 including an open house in Caledon on May 8, A Growth Management Subcommittee of Regional Council was established to oversee the project, and at a staff level a Regional Forecasting Working Group was formed. The work plan forthe Regional Official Plan Review anticipates a Regional Official Plan Amendment (ROPA) being adopted by Regional Council in June This ROPA will contain revised growth forecasts for the Area Municipalities based on Growth Plan Amendment 2. In order to adhere to this schedule, the Region has asked the Area Municipalities to providetheir desired growth scenarios as input intothe Regional growth allocation exercise. Both Mississauga and Brampton retained Hemson Consulting Ltd., while the Town of Caledon chose to retain Watson &Associates Economists Ltd., to undertake this exercise. Growth forecasts for Peel Region as per Growth Plan Amendment 2 anticipate a strong rate of population and employment growth to 2031 and As available Greenfield lands within the cities of Mississauga and Brampton diminish and planning for a major economic corridorthrough Caledon's "White-belt" is presently under way, increasing pressure is anticipated for urban residential and non-residential development in the Town of Caledon as the Town and Region plan for growth over the next 30 years. At the Town level, growth forecasts must consider long-term fiscal sustainability, especially to achieve a more desirable residential and non-residential tax split. In addition, the Province has released a new Provincial Policy Statement 2014 (PPS) which will come into effect on April 30, The new PPS contains a new provision that will allow the Town to identify employment areas to meet long term-needs as follows: " Planning authorities may plan beyond 20 years for the long-term protection of employment areas provided lands are not designated beyond the planning horizon identified in policy " Policy restricts the designation of land to a planning horizon of 20 years. Under the new provision, the Town will be able to identify and protect employment lands for a longer time period, thereby securing the Town's future employment land supply to meet forecasted needs. However, major uncertainties exist, such as the delivery of the GTA- Page 5of 19

8 U-fe West Corridor, while the Town considers the growth prospects for the next decades. These uncertainties add to the difficulties in the review of the growth forecasts. Five alternative Growth Options for Caledon's population and employment growth were developed by Watson &Associates and by staff for consideration by Council. These Growth Options were presented to Council on January 21, 2014 through report DP In that report, staff made a recommendation regarding the preferred population and employment numbers for 2031 and 2041 (Growth Option 5). Council adopted Resolution referring the report back to staff and directed that a Special Council meeting be scheduled for February 20, 2014, which would include a Public Open House and Public Information Meeting, to allow the public to comment on the Growth Options. The purpose of this report is to provide a summary of the public comments, present the Growth Options once again, and to present a recommendation regarding the proposed growth numbers. Growth Options The primary objective ofthe Town of Caledon Growth Forecasts Review Analysis is to provide a long-term vision, which ensures that Caledon continues to develop as a competitive and sustainable community, and is well balanced between future population and employment growth. A healthy amount ofemployment land development is required to assist inthe capital costs of public facilities for the new residential development. Fundamental to this objective is an adequate supply of employment lands within welldefined designated industrial/business parks located throughout the Town to accommodate demand to 2031 and Employment areas should be developed in a manner which allows the Townto build on its past successes, whilefurther enhancing its economic base through continued growth in a diverse range of employment sectors. Two Council workshops were held in 2013 to present Council with a clear direction on the objectives ofthe study, assumptions and key findings regarding the draft Growth Options. The first Council Workshop, which was held on July 9, 2013, discussed the regional drivers offuture population and employment growth forthe Town ofcaledon, the potential land capacity ofthe "White-belt" lands, and evaluation criteria for assessing the long-term growth scenarios. During the July 9, 2013 Council workshop, the following regional economic drivers offuture population and employment growth in the Town of Caledon were identified: The Town's proximity to the largest and most diverse employment market in Canada and access to labour force pool; Diminishing urban land supply in Mississauga and Brampton; Available "White-belt" lands in Caledon; Access to existing infrastructure (i.e. Highways 410, 427 and 407, Pearson International Airport, CN/CP Intermodal facilities, and access to post-secondary institutions); Page 6 of 19

9 Wl~^ o Proposed Infrastructure (i.e. the GTA West Corridor, Highway 427 extension, proposed GO rail service to Bolton andthe potential to include Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) service as an extension ofthe Hurontario-Main Light Rapid Transit (LRT) to serve Mayfield West); and Quality of life in Caledon. The above-identified growth drivers support a range of population and employment growth over the next 10, 20 and 30 years, at annual growth rates which are above the Town's historical experience. During the July 9, 2013 Council workshop the ultimate capacity of the Town of Caledon "White-belt" lands was explored by the Town's consultants through a high-level analysis. Based on this analysis, itwas determined that during the post 2031 period the Town's "White-belt" lands have the capacity to accommodate approximately 357,000 persons and 150,000 jobs1. The second Council Workshop, held on September 17, 2013 presented a series of longterm Growth Options to These Options include considerations of manageable annual housing growth, a preferred ratio of the Town's residential and non-residential taxes, population growth linked to the growth of live/work employment and commuting potential, as well as two scenarios related to Council directions to accelerate the growth of Mayfield West Rural Service Centre so that the two Rural Services Centres of Bolton and Mayfield West can achieve the same population size. In all of the Growth Options, the 2031 population forecasts were based on the original forecasts developed by the Town as part of the Official Plan Review that resulted in OPA 226. The Town's forecasts were first proportionally reduced in the ROPA 24 process along with those of the other Area Municipalities so that the Area Municipal total would conform to the Regional forecasts in the original Schedule 3 of the Growth Plan. A further reduction of the Town's forecasts was required to enable the Region to achieve the Greenfield density target in the Growth Plan. As a result, the Town's original 2031 population forecast of 113,000 was reduced by 5,000 people to 108,000, and its 2031 employment forecast of 49,000 was reduced by 3,000 jobs to 46,000. The reduced ROPA 24 numbers are identified as 2031A in the Growth Options presented in earlier report DP The 2031B forecasts in the Growth Options were designed to restore the 5,000 population and 3,000 jobs to Caledon that were "deferred" by Peel Region during the ROPA 24 process, resulting in the following new population and employment growth targets for the Town by 2031: 2031: population: 113,000, employment: 49,000 1Whitebelt capacity calculation based ona gross developable land area of 10,500 haless OPA 226 settlement expansion areas for Mayfield West and Bolton. Gross land area has not been adjusted to reflect the Right of Way for GTA West Corridor. Page 7 of 19

10 U-IO Option 1: Extrapolation of OPA 226 Population and Employment Forecast to 2041 This Option assumes an annual rate of housing growth between 2031 and 2041 of approximately 800 units per year, which is generally consistent with forecast 2011 to 2031 housing growth. In this Option, the employment forecast is based on an employment activity rate target (i.e. ratio of jobs to population) of 45% by Option 1 suggests a population size of 132,000 persons and employment size of 59,000 jobs for the Town by 2041 (Table 1). Table 1 Extrapolation of OPA 226 Population and Employment Forecasts to 2041 Year Population Growth Employment Growth Activity Rate ,000 39% ,000 25,000 40,000 16,000 46% 2031A 108,000 21,000 46,000 6,000 43% 2031B 113,000 5,000 49,000 3,000 43% ,000 19,000 59,000 10,000 45% Note: Numbisrs are rounded to the nearest thousand. It is notedthat Option 1 proposes a net population growth of 19,000 between 2031B and Preliminary results from the Town's ongoing Intensification Study have suggested a potential growth of12,600 persons within the Town's Built-up Areas (7,700 persons in Bolton and 4,900 persons inother areas) forthe same period (subjectto confirmation). As a result, only 6,400 persons would be available for Greenfield developmentforthe whole town between 2031 and Option 2: Achieving a 70/30 Split in Residential and Non-residential Tax Ratio This Option forecasts the growth in employment thatwould be needed to achieve the desired ratio between residential and non-residential assessment, assuming that residential growth would resemble that in Option 1. This Option assumes that additional employment growth (beyond that in Option 1)occurs in the industrial and non-retail commercial sectors. Option 2 forecasts a total of 113,000 people and 60,000 jobs by By 2041, the population and employment base istargeted at 132,000 people and 70,000 jobs respectively (Table 2). 2Population upwardly adjusted for the netcensusundercount (approximately 4.2%) employment based on 2011 Census data. Page 8 of 19

11 Ul-U Table 2 Achieving a 70/30 S Dlit in Residential and Non-residential Tax Ratio by 2041 Year Population Growth Employment Growth Activity Rate ,000 24,000 39% ,000 25,000 40,000 16,000 I 46% 2031A 108,000 21,000 46,000 6,000 43% 2031B 113,000 5,000 60,000 14,000 53% ,000 19,000 70,000 10,000 53% Note: Numbers are rounded 1o the nearest 1thousand. Itis noted that the level of 2031 employment growth required to achieve a 70/30 split in the residential/non-residential tax ratio is aggressive. Under Option 2, the Town's employment activity rate (ratio of jobs to population) is forecast to increase from approximately 39% (24,000 jobs/62,000 population) in 2011 to 53% by 2031 (60,000 jobs/113,000 population). Notwithstanding the economic growth drivers discussed at the July 9, 2013 Council workshop, an increase in the Town's employment base between 2011 and 2031 of 36,000 appears less likely. This level of 2031 employment growth also creates potential challenges given the amount of additional employment available within the provincial 2031B forecast for Peel Region. Lastly, overstating employment growth can also unduly burden the Town from a financial perspective if forecast infrastructure needs and revenue sources associated with growth do not materialize. Option 3: Linking Live/Work Employment and Commuters to Population Growth As previously identified, a key driver of future population growth for the Town of Caledon is the potential for employment growth over the next 30 yearsboth locally and within the surrounding commuter-shed. Accordingly, this Option examines the future population growth potential for the Town over the 2011 to 2041 forecast period driven by forecast growth in the local labour force, including Caledon commuters and residents who live and work within the Town. One of the Town's Official Plan policies is to encourage an optimum population and employment balance (i.e. employment activity rate) for the purposes of live/work relationship. Achieving a high employment activity rate is also important to the Town with respect to building complete communities, increasing taxable assessment, reducing commuting time and road needs and pursuing health, safety and environmental objectives. OF CALEDON Page 9 of 19

12 u-tz Under this Option, Caledon is assumed to receive 75% of the additional 2031 Region of Peel employment as per Growth Plan Amendment 2. With respect to 2031 to 2041 Peel Region employment growth, the following assumptions have been made: Approximately 50% of Peel employment growth on employment lands will be allocated to Caledon (31,000 employees); The Town will accommodate a modest amount of major office employment (2,000 employees); and An additional 20% of employees will be population-related or in other employment categories not addressed above (7,000 employees). Option 3 forecasts the Town to grow to a total population of approximately 166,600 persons and total employment of approximately 93,500 jobs by 2041 (Table 3). Table 3 Linking Live/Work Employment and Commuters to Population Growth Year Population Growth Employment Growth Activity Rate ,000 24,000 39% ,000 25,000 40,000 16,000 46% 2031A 108,000 21,000 46,000 6,000 43% 2031B 113,000 5,000 53,500 7,500 47% ,600 53,600 93,500 40,000 56% Option 4: BRES plus an Additional Expansion in Bolton This Option assumes that: The population size of Mayfield West Rural Service Centre and Bolton Rural Service Centre will be equal by 2041; Bolton Rural Service Centre undergoes a further expansion after 2031 for an additional population of 8,000 persons approximately; and Bolton Rural Service Centre receives an additional growth of approximately 7,700 persons for intensification after The second expansion assumes that the lands within the "Refined Study Area", as directed by Council on July 9, 2013, but not selected by the Bolton Residential Expansion Study for development by2031, will eventually be all developed by 2041 requiring an additional population of approximately 8,000 persons. Page 10 of 19

13 Ul-\3 Preliminary results from the Town's ongoing Intensification Study have suggested that Bolton Rural Service Centre could potentially accommodate an additional 7,700 persons for intensification within its Built-up Area between 2031 and This number is assumed for the purposes offorecasts only and will need to be confirmed by the Intensification Study. According to OPA 226> the population ofthe Bolton Rural Service Centre will grow to almost 40,000 persons by With the assumed additional growth of8,000 persons in new Greenfield area(s) and 7,700 persons for intensification in the Built-up Area, its population would grow to a total of approximately 55,700 by If IVIayfield West Rural Service Centre isto grow tothe same population size as Bolton Rural Service Centre by 2041 from its anticipated population size of approximately 26,700 residents by 2031 as per OPA 226, an additional Greenfield population growth of 29,000 residents will be needed. The combined total population of both Rural Service Centres would thus be 111,400 by Preliminary results from the Town's ongoing Intensification Study have revealed that Caledon East Rural Service Centre and the villages could potentially accommodate approximately 4,900 persons for intensification between 2031 and The total population of Caledon East Rural Service Centre, the villages, and the rural areas combined could thus grow from 41,300 persons by 2031 as per OPA 226 to over 50,000 persons by As a result, this policy-driven scenario would result in a Town-wide total population of approximately 162,000 persons by It is, however, important to notethatthese assumptions are used for the purpose of forecasts only. The Town's Official Plan contemplates that Bolton and Mayfield West Rural Service Centres will eventually be equal in population size without specifying a target date. These assumptions, therefore, do not implythat the suggested areas will be developed between 2031 and Oncethe forecasts have been finalized by Peel Region, the Town is required to initiate a new round of Municipal Comprehensive Reviewby provincial policies and regulations to determine where growth will eventually take place within the Town. This new round of Municipal Comprehensive Review may resultin a growth distribution that is different from what are assumed inthis report. For employment forecasts, land use planning typically considers 50% a healthy activity rate. As Caledon is located in close proximity to highways, Pearson International Airport, CN/CP Intermodal Facilities, access to postsecondary institutions, and a proposed majorinfrastructure corridor to go across the Town's "White-belt" area, the Town's activity rate is set to go up as developable Greenfield employment lands in Brampton and Mississauga reach built-out. The Town is presently planning to achieve an activity rate of 42.6% by 2031 as per OPA 226. The three Options discussed earlier have all suggested a higheractivity rate ranging between 45% and 56% by A Page 11 of 19

14 Ll-U* higher activity rate will help the Town to maintain economic viability and achieve a balance between residential and non-residential assessment revenues. Based on these understandings, staff chooses to apply a 50% activity rate for this Option, which would result inthe Town's employment growing to a total of 81,000 jobs by The assumptions made for Option 4 are summarized in the following table (Table 4). Table 4 Option 4 Summary of Population Growth Assumptions: 2031Ato2041 Growth Areas 2031 Greenfield Intensification 2041 (OPA226) Growth ( ) Total ( ) Bolton Rural Service Centre 40,000 8,000 7,700 55,700 Mayfield West Rural Service Centre 26,700 29, ,700 Caledon East and Villages 41,300 4,000 4,900 50,200 Town-wide Total I 108,000»* ' 41,000 12, ,600 Option 5: No additional Expansion in Bolton after the Bolton Residential Expansion Study (BRES) This scenario assumes that: The population size of Mayfield West Rural Service Centre and Bolton Rural Service Centre will be equal by 2041; Bolton Rural Service Centre does not undergoa further expansion after 2031; and Bolton Rural Service Centre receives an additional growth of approximately 7,700 persons for intensification after The difference betweenthis Option and Option 4 is that this Option assumes no additional settlement area boundary expansion in Bolton Rural Service Centre between 2031 and 2041, which would result in the population of Bolton Rural Service Centre to grow to a total of 47,700 persons by taking out the 8,000 person Greenfield development assumed in Option 4. If Mayfield West Rural Service Centre is to achieve the same population size by 2041, an additional Greenfield population growth of 21,000 residents will be needed, representing a similar reduction of 8,000 persons. The total population of the two Rural Service Centres combined would be 95,400 persons by The total Town-wide population would thus be approximately 146,000 persons by The total Town-wide employment would be 73,000 jobs by 2041 at 50% employment activity rate. OF CALEDON Page 12 of 19

15 U-15 It should be noted that the next round of Municipal Comprehensive Review may result in a growth distribution that is different from what are assumed in this report, as suggested in Option 4. The assumptions made for Option 5 are summarized in the following table (Table 5). Table 5 Option 5 Summary of Population Growth Assumptions: 2031A to 2041 Growth Areas 2031 Greenfield Intensification 2041 (OPA226) Growth ( ) Total ( ) Bolton Rural Service Centre 40, ,700 47,700 Mayfield West Rural Service 26,700 21, ,700 Centre Caledon East and Villages 41,300 4,000 4,900 50,200 Town-wide Total 108,000 25,000 12, ,600 Public Comments As a result ofthe Special Council meeting held on February 20, 2014, a number of comments were received from the public. The public comments are summarized on Schedule A - Table of Public Comments. Just over half of the comments related to a request to have lands designatedfordevelopment. In response to these requests, the Growth Forecasts Review exercise currently being undertaken is notto designate land for development. It is to determine the growth numbers for 2031 and 2041, which may provide justification forfuture settlement expansions. Such settlementexpansions will be undertaken at a future date through a Municipal Comprehensive Review. The assumptions used in the Options are only meant to help in the discussion. Assumptions regarding the long-term build-out also need to keep in mind the need for resolution ofthe East/West infrastructure corridor. The Growth Plan requiresthat corridors be protected and municipalities are encouraged to designate and preserve lands within settlement areas in the vicinity of existing major highway interchanges, ports, rail yards and airports as employment lands, where appropriate (Growth Plan policy ). Other comments related to the provision ofservices to support the additional population and employment growth, and the fiscal sustainability ofgrowth. The fiscal impacts ofthe Caledon Growth Options will largely depend on the amount, type (i.e. residential/nonresidential) and location of future urban development. As part of this Peel Region Official Plan Review exercise, the Town has not yet determined the amount, type or location of residential/non-residential development by settlement area. Without a detailed growth analysis bysettlement area, it is not possible to conduct a meaningful analysis regarding the fiscal impacts of growth on the Town of Caledon. Detailed fiscal impact analysis is Page 13 of 19

16 u-ic carried out during settlement area boundaryexpansion studies, as part of the Town's Municipal Comprehensive Review process. There were also several comments requesting lowto no additional growth. Evaluation The five growth options have resulted in different growth scenarios for Caledon, as summarized in Table 6. The Town's consultant has considered a number of evaluation criteria inthe growth forecast review, as follows: Growth Assimilation Fiscal Sustainability Population and Employment Balance Community Policy Community Character Each ofthe above criteria is assigned the same weighting inthe evaluation ofeach Growth Option. Table 6 Growth Options in Summary Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 Option Population 113, , , , ,000 Employment 49,000 60,000 53,000 49,000 49,000 Activity rate 43% 53% 47%. 43% 43% Tax Split 76/24 70/30 72/28 75/25 75/25 Population 132, , , , ,000 Employment 59,000 70,000 94,000 81,000 73,000 Activity rate 45% 53% 56% 50% 50% Tax Split 74/26 70/30 66/34 69/31 71/29 Note: Numbers are rounded to the nearest thousand. Tax Split refers to the ratio between residential and non-residential taxes. For "Growth Assimilation" staff has compared the proposed 2041 growth ofeach Option with the Town's historical annual housing and employment growth. Between 1991 and 2011, the Town's population and employment base grew at an annual rate of 2.6% and 3.1% annually. Growth Options proposing population and employment growth that is closer to the Town's historical trends are considered more preferable in the evaluation. Under this criterion, Option 1 ranks "high", Options 2 and 5 rank "medium" and Options 3 and 4 rank "low". Page 14 of 19

17 U\-IT For "Fiscal Sustainability" the assessment has focused on the ability of each Growth Option to achieve a desirable 70/30 split between the residential and non-residential tax ratio by 2041, as directed by Council. Thus, it is considered more desirable in the evaluation if a Growth Option achieves a split that is closer to, or greaterthan, the 70/30 split. It is important to keep in mind that residential development does not pay for itself. Non-residential development often generates a net positive tax impact (i.e. tax revenues exceed operating expenditures). In turn, this improves the tax ratio of non-residential development to residential and supports long-term fiscal sustainability. While Option 1 moves toward a higher non-residential tax ratio, it does not reach the 70/30 target by Accordingly, Option 1 is assigned a "medium" ranking. All other Growth Options meet or exceed the 70/30 tax ratio and are assigned a "high" ranking. For "Population and Employment Balance" the assessment has focused on the employment activity rates (i.e. ratio of employment to population), recognizing the need for the Town to raise the activity rate in the long run with consideration given to live/work relationships and commuting potential of each Option in the evaluation. In general, it is considered more desirable if a Growth Option allows the Town to achieve a higher employment activity rate. Forthe purpose of this exercise, a 50% activity rate is considered to reflect a healthy balance between population and employment. Growth Option 1 generates an employment activity rate of 45% by 2041 which is below the Town's long-term objective. Accordingly, this Growth Option ranks "low" ander this criterion. All other Growth Options achieve a 50% activity rate or higher by 2041 and therefore rank "high" under this criterion. For "Community Policy" the assessment of each Option has focused on its potential to support the Town in building compact and complete communities. A Growth Option is considered qualified for compact community building if it contains sufficient amount of growth to achieve a reasonable intensification target. Based on the preliminary result of the Town's Intensification Study, Option 4 and Option 5 have assumed a total growth of 7,700 person in Bolton Rural Service Centre and 4,900 persons in other areas, or a total of 12,600 persons, for intensification between 2031 and 2041 (subject to confirmation). All of the five Options have proposed sufficient growth to achieve this goal. The evaluation has thus focused on the ability of each Growth Option to support the Town in building complete communities. It is considered more desirable if a Growth Option would allow the Town to complete Mayfield West Phase 2, as initially envisioned, and address the growth prospects in Bolton Rural Service Centre. Options 3 and 4 allow for a high level of potential intensification in the Bolton Rural Service Centre as well as more growth in Mayfield West beyond the Mayfield West Phase 2 area, resulting in a more complete community. Accordingly, both Options 3 and 4 rank "high" under this criterion. Options 1 and 2 provide for more limited intensification opportunities in the Bolton Rural Service Centre and a much smaller expansion of Mayfield West beyond the Mayfield West Phase 2 area. Accordingly, Options 1 and 2 rank "low" under this criterion. Option 5 provides moderate intensification opportunities in Bolton and allows for the partial expansion of Mayfield West beyond the Mayfield West Phase 2 area and therefore ranks "medium" under this criterion. F CALEDON Page 15 of 19

18 Ll-l^ For "Community Character" the assessment of each Option has focused on its ability to achieve a reasonable Greenfield density that is consistent with the Town's existing community character. Given the Town's lower employment density and the existing policy framework that combines residential and employment development in the Greenfield density calculation, it is considered less desirable for protecting community character if a Growth Option proposes accelerated employment growth and modest residential growth. This, however, can change if the province in future decides to delink employment from Greenfield density calculation, as the Town has been repeatedly asking. A high level analysis was undertaken to examine the potential Greenfield density of each growth scenario in terms of average people and jobs per hectare. Options 2, 3 and 4 generate a high amount of employment growth at relatively low employment densities. In order to conform to the provincial Greenfield density target under the Growth Plan, these Options require that residential Greenfield densities be high to compensate for low density employment. Accordingly, Options 2, 3 and 4 rank "low" under this evaluation criterion. Options 1 and 5 generate a relatively lower amount of employment growth relative to the other Growth Options. As such, Options 1 and 5 require a lower average residential density (relative to Growth Options 2, 3 and 4) to conform to the provincial Greenfield density target, but still require the Town's residential Greenfield areas to achieve an average density that is well above existing conditions. Based on this analysis, Options 1 and 5 rank "medium" under this evaluation criterion. The evaluation, suggested by the level of preference under each evaluation criterion, is summarized in Table 7. As it reveals, Option 5, which proposes a total population of 146,000 persons and a total employment of 73,000 jobs by 2041, represents the preferred Growth Option and is the most balanced of the five alternatives. Table 7 Preference of the Growth Options by 2041 Growth Growth Fiscal Pop/Emp Community Community Options Assimilation Sustainability Balance Policy Character Option 1 high medium low low medium Option 2 medium high high low low Option 3 low high high high low Option 4 low high high high low Option 5 medium high high medium medium Under the scenario of Option 5, the Town's population would be growing at 2.6 percent per year between 2031 and 2041, similarto the population growth rate the Town experienced between 2001 and It would also result in the Town's employment growing at around 4.0% per year between 2031 and This growth Option would Page 16 of 19

19 LM^ allow the Town to plan for a steady residential growth in the Town's Rural Service Centres, through both intensification and future Greenfield development. The proposed employment size of 73,000 jobs would also allow the Town to achieve a more desirable employment activity rate of 50% by 2041, compared with 63% in Mississauga and 37% in Brampton. It would also allow the Town to achieve a more desirable ratio between residential and non-residential tax assessment than what exists today. Option 5 would also allow the Town to plan for development that takes advantage of major provincial infrastructure development within the Town of Caledon, i.e. the extension of Highway 410 to Highway 10, the planned GTA West Corridor and GO rail service to Bolton. It would allow the Town to continue to plan for growth in areas that are "away from sensitive resources", achieve "efficient development patterns", and "optimize the use of land, resources and public investment in infrastructure and public service facilities" as suggested in the Provincial Policy Statement (2005). Particularly, it would allow the Town to continue to plan for compact and complete communities to ensure the Town's "long-term prosperity, environmental health and social well-being". All the population and employment forecasts, as suggested in the Growth Options, include intensification. The Town initiated an Intensification Study in June 2013 to ' undertake a detailed assessment to identify further intensification opportunities beyond Preliminary findings were presented to Council on October 22, Given that Caledon's total intensification between 2031 and 2041 will be minor compared with what is proposed by the Cities of Brampton and Mississauga, it will not be determinative for Peel Region in achieving a Region-wide minimum residential intensification of 40 percent per year, as required by the Growth Plan, and thus does not need to be overemphasized in a growth forecast exercise for the Town. Council and members of the public will have opportunities to review and comment on the findings from the Intensification Study before it is finalized. Staff has also raised concerns to Peel Region staff that a significant increase in employment between 2031 and 2041 would be desirable for the Town in order to achieve a better split between residential and non-residential taxes. The Town of Caledon currently has a residential / non-residential tax assessment ratio of 82/18, while Mississauga is at 68/32 and Brampton is at 77/23. Strong non-residential tax assessment pays for people services. Strengthening Caledon's tax assessment ratio will strengthen the finances of both the Town and the Region. Growth Plan policy requiring Peel Region to achieve a minimum Greenfield density target of 50 people and jobs combined per hectare creates high density neighbourhoods if employment density is low. On a direct trade off, employment density of 25 jobs per hectare creates a need to provide housing at a density of 75 persons per hectare. Such a high residential density is inconsistent with Caledon's community character. Low density employment, such as distribution centres, needs a location in the GTA. At this stage of community development and in light of a major transportation corridor planned go across the Town's "White-belt" area, Caledon has become a destination for Page 17 of 19

20 UV-ZO low density employment. Low density employment is an integral part of the economy and will strengthen the Town and the Region's tax bases. The Region of Peel through this conformity exercise needs to find a way to support the growth of low density employment in Caledon. The Region also needs to support a provincial policy change that would delink employment from the Greenfield density calculation. While the options in this report refer to growth taking place in certain parts of the Town, this is onlyfor the purposes of a general analysis. The jocation and direction of growth will be the result of a full Municipal Comprehensive Review, and staff is not suggesting or pre-judging where growth (and possible urban boundary expansions) might occur in the future. Throughout the public consultation process, support was expressed by members of the public for each of the five Growth Options presented. After a careful analysis of all the comments received, staff is of the opinion that Growth Option 5 as recommended in report DP of January 21, 2014, remains the most desirable Option. Financial Implications This report has no immediate financial implications. The level of population and employment growth that is assigned to Caledon through the Regional growth allocation exercise being undertaken as part of the Regional Official Plan review will have significant implications for the Town's tax base and the ratio of tax revenues collected from residential vs. non-residential properties / development. The Town of Caledon has focused on improving non-residential tax revenues as non residential taxpayers generally utilize fewer municipal services (such as recreational facilities, libraries, animal shelter) than residential taxpayers. Accordingly, incremental non-residential tax revenues related to commercial/ industrial growth generally assists in mitigating operating budget pressures. Further, Caledon's current (2013) revenues from residential vs. non-residential properties is 82 percent residential vs. 18 percent non-residential. Improving the tax revenues from non-residential properties (relative to residential properties) would generally shift more of the impact offuture property tax increases away from residential taxpayers. Applicable Legislation and Requirements Growth Plan Amendment 2 Region of Peel Official Plan. COMMUNITY BASED STRATEGIC PLAN Strategic Objective 2D- Manage Growth and Use Land Wisely. Page 18 of 19

21 Ul-Zl NEXT STEPS Staff will continue to participate in the Region-wide growth forecast discussions. As a result of Region-wide balancing, the recommended forecasts are subject to change. The Regional Official Plan review timetable anticipates the adoption of a ROPAsetting out the population and employment forecasts and allocations to 2041 by June of ATTACHMENTS Schedule A: Table of Public Comments Received as a Result of the Special Council Meeting on February 20, 2014 Prepared by: Kathie Kurtz Approver (L1): Haiqing Xu Approver (L2): Mary Hall Approver (L3): Debbie Thompson Approver (L4): Douglas Barnes Approver (L5): n» ^«o*-^ Page 19 of 19

22 Table of Public Comments Received as a Result of the Special Council Meeting of February 20,2014 Requesting Theme designation of land Requesting designation of land Requesting designation of land Requesting designation of land Requesting designation of land Requesting designation of land Requesting designation of land Comment Request that the Clarke, Spears and Cation lands that were removed from the Mayfield West Phase 2dueto the requirement to conform to ROPA 24 as employment lands be reinstated. Support Options 3 through 5. u CO 03 o In favour of increased population and employment numbers and requestthat their propertybe reinstatedas tq 3" CD CD employment lands in Mayfield West Phase 2. Thefamily has a great interest inthe new higherpopulationand employmentnumbers beingapproved, so that * > their remaining property can be included inthe Mayfield West development. O Supportsthe comments ofjohn and Emily Cation and Ken and Lonna Spiers. Reiterates the commitment of the AlloaVillage Land Owners Group to deliver an intelligent community with a > hospital, university campus, and high-tech research facilities that will economically benefitthe Town. Believes growth incaledon isinevitable and the Town should be prepared (plan for) growth. Statedthat the financial o < impact isa verycritical component to planning a good community and promised that the Alloa Village development will have no negative fiscal impact on existing residents. Afiscal impact studycannot be completed until it is known where the community will be located. The proposed new community west of Mayfield West will require an allocation ofapproximately 25,000 population and 10,000 jobs. Requests Council to consider this population and job growth as part ofthe Town's growth allocation from the Region of Peel. -i O CD D CD < CD_ o o 3 CD Co r 3 «I to I o" Requesting an expansion to the southwestcornerof Caledon Village for residential purposes, following *< completion of the aggregate extraction operation. CD -o Proposes a hybrid option forthe Bolton Residential Expansion Study, taking in portions of Options 3 and4 D identified inthe BRES. Does not support BRES Options 1,2 and 5. Wants weighing factors to be assigned to the T) rb evaluation table. Supports majorinfrastructure development to support BRES Options 3 and 4. There has been o noweighting ofthe evaluation criteria. Whatconstitutes low, medium and high? o to CO o 3.