CITY OF KINGSTON AND KINGSTON CMA POPULATION, HOUSING AND EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS

Transcription

1 CITY OF KINGSTON AND KINGSTON CMA POPULATION, HOUSING AND EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS September 2013

2 CITY OF KINGSTON AND KINGSTON CMA POPULATION, HOUSING AND EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS HIGHLIGHTS OF THE REPORT THE KINGSTON CENSUS METROPOLITAN AREA (CMA) The Kingston CMA includes the City of Kingston (population 123,410 in 2011), the Township of South Frontenac (18,110), the Township of Frontenac Islands (1,860) and Loyalist Township (16,220). The total population of the CMA in 2011 was 159,600. The City accounted for 77.3 percent of the population of the CMA in KINGSTON CMA PAST TRENDS Since 1997 the population of the Kingston CMA has been growing at an average annual rate of 1,046 persons per year. Net natural population growth was negligible as births (averaging 1,440 per year) exceeded deaths (averaging 1,296) by an average of only 144 per year. Net in-migration the difference between the number of people moving into the CMA and the number moving out was therefore the area s major source of population growth over that span at an average of 902 per year. Domestic migration as opposed to international migration accounted for the lion s share of the Kingston CMA s population growth over this period. KINGSTON CMA GROWTH POTENTIAL The relative pace of population growth by region across Canada is largely explained by the relative pace of growth in regional economic base jobs. The Kingston CMA has a highly diversified economic base. About one fifth is dependent upon industry and the remaining four fifths is distributed across federal administration, post-secondary education, specialized health care and tourism. This diversity represents an advantage for the Kingston area. Jobs in agriculture and manufacturing the mainstays of regional growth in the past have been declining for decades, a trend likely to continue. In contrast, there is potential for economic base job growth in the Kingston area in federal, specialized health, post-secondary education and tourism services. There were just over 64,000 jobs on a place-of-work basis in the CMA in Of that total just over 21,000 were economic base jobs. City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Highlights Page 1

3 Almost all of the area s economic base jobs are located in the City. Out of the CMA s 21,000 total economic base jobs fewer than 900 were located in the three other municipalities that define the CMA. Those that were located outside the City are roughly split between agriculture and industry. On a place-of-residence basis the City accounts for 76.0 percent of the CMA s residents who work. On a place-of-work basis the City accounts for 91.8 percent of all the jobs in the CMA. THE BABY BOOM PHENOMENON Between 2011 and 2031 all the members of the Baby Boom Generation will gradually reach the age of 65. As the Boomers who worked retire over this span they will need to be replaced in the workforce. The Boomers did not fully replace themselves as a generation (the total fertility rate has been well under the replacement rate of 2.1 per female since the mid-1960s). As a result the retiring Boomers will need to be replaced by migrants from other countries and/or declining parts of Canada. For Canada this means immigration in the future will need to be higher than in the past if we are to achieve our economic potential. After 2031, once all the Boomers have reached 65, the Boomer retirement issue will go away. At that point Canada s immigration requirements can be reduced. In addition, as of 2031 the oldest Boomers those that survive until then will be 85 or older. So beyond 2031 the number of deaths among Baby Boomers will increase each year. Reduced immigration flows and increasing deaths mean Canada s population growth will slow down beyond In other words Canada faces higher than average population growth for the next two decades followed by slower than average population growth for some time thereafter. This phenomenon will impact communities throughout the country. We project the Kingston area s economic base jobs will grow in the future but not as quickly as in faster growing and more populated centres such as the Toronto, Montreal, Ottawa, Vancouver, Calgary and Edmonton metropolitan areas. As a result the Baby Boom phenomenon for the Kingston area means population growth for two decades followed by a gradual population decline shortly after This population change profile is reflected in our Base Case projection for the area. We project the CMA s population will increase from 159,600 in 2011 to 193,500 in 2033 then decline gradually to 185,530 by The decline in the CMA s population after 2033 is not the result of an underperforming economic base. Rather it stems from the area having achieved by 2031 an adequate supply of working aged people thus no need for high rates of in-migration for a while beyond that point coupled with the gradual disappearance through death of the by then long retired Baby Boomers. City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Highlights Page 2

4 KINGSTON CMA BASE CASE PROJECTION Our Base Case projection for population, employment and dwellings for the CMA is based on the assumptions that jobs in agriculture and industry in the area will continue to decline over time jobs, that federal government jobs will stay flat but that jobs in the post-secondary education, specialized health care services and tourism will grow in line with such jobs province-wide. The population of the CMA in 2041 will exceed that in 2011 by almost 26,000. The growth in the total population of the Kingston CMA over that span will be entirely accounted for by people over the age of 65. There will be about the same number of people in each age and gender group under the age of 65 in 2041 as there were in At any given point in time between 2011 and 2041, however, different age groups will dominate the distribution of population within the area. These changes have significant implications regarding the future need for new dwellings, health care, municipal services, etc. in the area. The number of households in the Kingston CMA will grow from 65,820 in 2011 to 80,320 in 2041, a gain over that span of 14,500. Because of the rising then falling nature of the future population, and due to its shifting age distribution, the number of households will reach a peak in 2035 at 82,100 two years after the peak is reached in the CMA s total population. In 2006 single-detached units accounted for the largest share of dwellings in the Kingston CMA at 57.0 percent that year. Semis, rows and duplexes accounted for 15.9 percent and apartments and all other units accounted for 27.1 percent. Applying the 2006 propensities by age to the projected population by age the business-as-usual assumption suggests that single-detached units would continue to dominate across the projection horizon. However housing policies are likely to reduce the single-detached share in the future. Housing policies could impact the ways that people cohabit and therefore could impact future persons per unit ratios by structural type. For example, the projection of a continued high share for single-detached units in the business-asusual case stems from the fact that future household growth is dominated by growth in the households of couples, many with children, a group that typically favours single-detached units. If housing policies shift the share of units permitted away from single-detached units these couples will need to be accommodated in other dwelling forms, a shift that would raise the persons per unit ratios in those other forms above those implied in the business-as-usual case. City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Highlights Page 3

5 Total employment in the CMA on a place-of-work basis will increase from an estimated 75,900 as of 2013 to a projected peak of 89,100 in each of 2033 and 2034 before declining to 86,580 in THE BASE CASE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE CITY AND THE REST OF THE CMA Most of the jobs provided by employers in the Kingston CMA are provided within the City of Kingston itself. We project this will continue to be the case in the future. Most of the working residents of the CMA outside the City commute to jobs within the City. We project this too will continue in the future. Thus growth in the economic base jobs of the area will impact population growth in both the City and in the three other municipalities in the CMA. In the absence of any interventions coordinated housing policies among the jurisdictions that serve the CMA s municipalities and/or major investments in transportation, water supply and waste water treatment the populations of the City and the rest of the CMA will move in tandem, increasing through to 2033 then declining slightly. As of 2013 we estimate that the number of persons per unit in the CMA averages The number per unit in the City (2.36) is lower than that in the rest of the CMA (2.62) reflecting the dominance of ground-related family-oriented units in the rest of the CMA. The persons per unit ratio will fall in both the City and the rest of the CMA over time, more so in the City because of the dominance of ground-related units in the rest of the CMA. Again, these ratios reflecting business-as-usual could shift due to housing and other growth management policies. THE PROJECTION ALTERNATIVES THE HIGH CASE In preparing the High Case we relaxed only one assumption, that being related to the future federal presence in the area. In the Base Case we assumed the number of federal jobs in the area will remain flat. In the High Case we assumed federal employment will grow such that the Kingston area continues to accommodate about 1 percent of all federal jobs across Canada, reflecting its historical share across the last decade and a half. The High Case results in higher levels for population, households and employment across the entire projection horizon for the CMA. The population in 2041 in the High Case is greater than in the Base Case by 13,120, households are higher by 4,980 and employment by place-of-work is higher by 6,200. City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Highlights Page 4

6 THE LOW CASE Reflecting the concerns of many stakeholders regarding the area s capacity to grow its post-secondary education and specialized health care economic bases beyond existing capacities we developed a Low Case projection alternative incorporating those concerns. Specifically we assumed the following: Employment in economic base health will hold steady at its estimated 2013 level across the projection horizon. Employment in economic base education will also hold steady at its estimated 2013 level across the projection horizon. Employment in tourism, agriculture and industry will grow at a rate 0.25 percent per year slower than assumed in the Base Case. Thus the CMA will steadily lose share in these industries within Ontario. Employment in federal administration will decline from its estimated level in 2014 at a rate of 0.25 percent per year. The Low Case results in lower levels for population, households and employment across the entire projection horizon for the CMA. The population in 2041 in the Low Case is lower than in the Base Case by 39,860, households are lower by 14,480 and employment by place-of-work is lower by 18,310. Our projections for the total population of the CMA in the Base, High and Low Case alternatives are illustrated in the chart on the following page. OUR ASSESSMENT OF THE ALTERNATIVE PROJECTIONS Our long term national projections call for Canada s economy, labour requirements and population to grow steadily in the future though at a gradually decelerating pace. As a result the federal government will need a growing complement of civilian and military staff to maintain its per capita level of services. The Kingston area has accounted for a small but steady share (1 percent) of the federal government s nation-wide staff for the last decade and a half. We are of the view that the federal government with its already significant personnel and infrastructure commitment to the area is more likely to grow its presence in Kingston in line with the nation s growing service needs (as assumed in the High Case) rather than hold it steady (as assumed in the Base Case) or reduce it (as assumed in the Low Case). As a result we attach the highest probability to the High Case projection alternative. City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Highlights Page 5

7 OTHER PROJECTIONS Our projections for the CMA and the City are generally consistent with those prepared for the City by Teratrends in 2008, for the CMA with those prepared for the area by the Ontario Ministry of Finance this year, and for the City with the projections prepared in conjunction with the Development Charges/Impost Fees Study carried for the City out in PLANNING IMPLICATIONS OF THE PROJECTIONS The projections completed in 2008 and currently incorporated in the Official Plan anticipated that the City s population would be 133,100 in 2026, a gain of 15,900 over the level in Our Base Case projection foresees the City s population reaching 141,900 by 2026, a gain of 24,750 over the same span. As a consequence, it is recommended that the Official Plan be updated to reflect this new 2026 projection. In addition, the City should also incorporate the 2031 population projection as well, with this number being 147,960. With respect to households, the growth in dwellings projected in 2008 from 2006 to 2026 for the City included an increase of 10,800 in occupied dwelling units and a gain of 2,500 in unoccupied dwelling units for a total gain of 13,300 dwelling units. Our Base Case projection foresees the number of occupied dwelling units increasing by 12,140 over the 2006 to 2026 period, a figure higher than Teratrends projection for occupied units. It is recommended, therefore, that the Official Plan be amended to reflect our Base Case projection for 2026 (61,060 occupied dwellings) and our Base Case household projection for 2031 (63,810 occupied dwellings). With respect to employment, the current Official Plan indicates that there would be an employment increase of 14,000 between 2006 and Our Base Case projection foresees the number of jobs on a place-of-work basis increasing by 14,350 over the 2006 to 2026 period. As a consequence, there is no need to change the Official Plan employment projection to However, there will be a need to incorporate the 2031 employment projection, which envisions that the total number of jobs in Kingston in 2031 will be 81,540. City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Highlights Page 6

8 Kingston CMA Total Population Projection Alternatives Actual 2001 to 2011 Projected 2012 to ,000 Base Case High Case Low Case 200, , ,000 50, Source: Statistics Canada and SPI City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Highlights Page 7

9 TABLE OF CONTENTS Section Topic Page Highlights of the Report Section 1: Introduction 1 Stakeholder Consultations Research and Model Simulations Report Outline Section 2: Recent Population Trends in the Kingston Area 5 Section 3: Current Provincial and Local Planning Policy and its Impact on the Projections 10 Provincial Policy Statement City of Kingston Policy Documents County of Frontenac Policy Documents Township of South Frontenac Township of Frontenac Islands County of Lennox and Addington Policy Documents Loyalist Township Other Current Projections o Development Charges/Impost Fees Study o Municipal Housing Strategy Section 4: The Economic Base of the Kingston Area 24 Federal Administration Employment Post-Secondary Education Employment Health Services Employment Other Export Based Employment Total Export Based Employment Section 5: The Potential for Growth in the Area s Economic Base 27 Federal Administration Employment Post-Secondary Education Employment Health Services Employment Other Export Based Employment Section 6: The Implications for Population and Households 36 The Baby Boom Phenomenon The Population by Age and Gender Households By Age of Household Head Section 7: The Implications for Dwellings by Structural Type 45 Assuming Business-as-Usual Assuming Provincial and Local Housing Policies Section 8: Other Implications of the Projections for the CMA 48 Population by Age across the Projection Horizon Employment by Industry City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections

10 Section 9: Implications for the City of Kingston and the Rest of the CMA 51 Total Population Households and Dwellings Persons Per Unit Employment by Place-of-Work Institutionalized Population Urban and Rural Development in the City of Kingston Frontenac County s Official Plan Section 10: Projection Alternatives 56 High Case Projections Low Case Projections The Base, High and Low Projection Alternatives Compared Section 11: Comparison to Other Projections 61 Projections for the CMA Projections for the City Section 12: Planning Implications of the Projections 66 Projection Summary Tables CMA Base Case Projection CMA High Case Projection CMA Low Case Projection City of Kingston Base Case Projection City of Kingston High Case Projection City of Kingston Low Case Projection Other Kingston CMA Base Case Projection Other Kingston CMA High Case Projection Other Kingston CMA Low Case Projection Appendix A: Summary of Public Comments Appendix B: SPI s Community Projections Methodology City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections

11 LIST OF EXHIBITS Exhibit Topic Page 1 Map of the Kingston CMA 5 2 Kingston CMA, Births, Deaths and Net Natural Population Growth 1997 to Kingston CMA, Net Natural, Net Migration and Total Population Growth 1997 to Kingston CMA, Immigration, Emigration, net International Migration, Net All-Other Migration 1997 to Kingston CMA, Economic Employment in Kingston CMA as a Percent Share of Total Canada Federal Administration and Defence Employment 27 7 Kingston CMA, Federal Administration and Defence Employment, Historical 2001 to 2012 Base and High Projections 2013 to Kingston CMA, Post-Secondary Employment, Historical 2001 to 2012 Projected 2013 to Kingston CMA, Specialized Health Care Services Employment, Historical 2001 to 2012 Projected 2013 to Kingston CMA, Agriculture, Industry Tourism Employment, Historical 2001 to 2012 Projected 2013 to Kingston CMA, Economic Base Jobs by Major Sector, Historical 2001 to 2012 Projected 2013 to Kingston CMA, Annual Change in Population Aged 20 to 74 and in Total Employed Estimated and Projected 2011 to Kingston CMA, Population Aged 20 to 74 and Total Employed Historical 2001 to 2012 Projected 2013 to Kingston CMA Births and Deaths, Five-Year Periods from to Kingston CMA Net Natural, Net Migration and Total Population Growth Five-Year Periods from to Kingston CMA Economic-Base and Community-Base Employment Historical 2001 to 2012 Projected 2013 to Kingston CMA Population by Age and Gender, Actual in 2011 and Projected for Kingston CMA Households by Age of Head, Every Fifth Year from 2001 to Kingston CMA Dwellings by Major Structural Type Actual 2006 Estimated and Projected 2007 to Kingston CMA Population by major Age Group, Actual 2001 to 2011 Projected 2012 to Kingston CMA Employment by Industry, Actual 2001 to 2011 Projected 2012 to City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections

12 22 Total Population: City of Kingston and the Rest of the CMA Actual 2001 to 2011 Projected 2012 to Total Households: City of Kingston and the Rest of the CMA Actual 2006 to 2011 Projected 2012 to Persons per Unit: City of Kingston and the Rest of the CMA Actual 2006 to 2011 Projected 2012 to Total Population Projection Alternatives: Kingston CMA Actual 2001 to 2011 Projected 2012 to Total Employment Projection Alternatives: Kingston CMA Actual 2001 to 2011 Projected 2012 to Total Household Projection Alternatives: Kingston CMA Actual 2001 to 2011 Projected 2012 to Kingston CMA Total Population Projections Comparison SPI (Blue Lines) Teratrends (Red Lines) Base Case (Solid Line), High (Dash Line), Low (Dotted Line) Actual 2001 to 2011 Projected 2012 to Kingston CMA and Frontenac County, Total Population Projections Comparison, SPI-CMA (Blue Line), Ontario Finance-CD (Red Line) Actual 2001 to 2011 Projected 2012 to City of Kingston Total Population Projections Comparison SPI (Blue Lines), Teratrends (Red Lines) Base Case (Solid Line), High (Dash Line), Low (Dotted Line) Actual 2001 to 2011 Projected 2012 to City of Kingston Total Population Projections Comparison, SPI-CMA (Blue Line) DC/Impost Study (Red Line) Actual 2001 to 2011 Projected 2012 to City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections

13 CITY OF KINGSTON AND KINGSTON CMA POPULATION, HOUSING AND EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS Section 1 INTRODUCTION Meridian Planning and the Centre for Spatial Economics (C4SE) were retained by the City of Kingston in early 2013 to develop updated population, housing and employment projections for the Kingston Census Metropolitan Area (CMA), the City of Kingston itself and the area defining the rest of the Kingston CMA to Strategic Projections Inc. (SPI), a partner corporation of C4SE, developed the projections on behalf of the City. This report discusses the approach we (Meridian and SPI) took in carrying out this assignment, the assumptions we made in developing the projections and the projection results we obtained. The City s Request for Proposal (RFP) for this project indicated that three projections should be developed for each area low, medium and high from 2011 to 2041 covering the following: Population Projections (by age-cohort): birth rate, death rate, net migration rate, immigration, institutional versus non-institutional population, etc. Housing Demand Projections (by structural type): dwelling unit numbers, dwelling unit type (detached, attached, apartments), occupied and unoccupied units, and household size Migration Projections: international, inter-provincial and intra-provincial Employment Projections: labour force, unemployment rate, jobs-to-residents ratio, non-residential construction activity, etc. The RFP indicated that the final report regarding the projections should cover the following topics: A discussion of the key assumptions adopted in developing the projections. A detailed economic, demographic and dwelling profile of the CMA, the City and the rest of the CMA for A detailed analysis of the components of growth and change drivers that will impact the amount and distribution of population, dwelling and employment growth throughout the CMA and the City. City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 1

14 A discussion of the Provincial and local planning policy context regarding longterm growth projections. A discussion of the population, housing and employment growth implications for the urban-rural split of housing in the City. A discussion regarding the projection methodology used to develop the projections including a review of data sources, etc. A comparison to the projections prepared by TeraTrends for the City in 2008 and an evaluation of the continuing validity of those projections. A comparison of the projections to those prepared by the Ontario Ministry of Finance in June of 2012 regarding Frontenac County Census Division This report is intended to fulfil these requirements. In our proposal to the City we indicated that to develop the projections we would first acquire a thorough understanding of the City s growth potential in two ways: Through stakeholder consultation as a means to gaining an understanding of the aspirations of the area for growth and of its commitment to that objective. Through research and model simulations in order to gain an understanding of the potential for industrial expansion in the area and of the impacts different rates of expansion will have on population and dwelling growth in the area. Stakeholder Consultations Several meeting with stakeholders were held from April through July. Written comments received from meeting participants and our responses to those comments are included in Appendix A. Meridian Planning and SPI wish to thank all of those who took the time to meet with us and to provide us with their views on the future of the metropolitan area. Research and Model Simulations The projections were prepared using SPI s community projection system. Appendix B describes the system in some detail. Provided here is a brief description of the approach we take to modeling community projections. City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 2

15 For the most part the SPI projection system mirrors that of others. Its foundation is an age cohort model which develops projections of the population by age and gender, households by age of head, dwellings by structural type, the labour force and the number of employed, etc. all starting with base year data for each of these concepts and on assumptions regarding future rates by age of fertility, mortality, migration, household headship, dwelling occupancy and labour market participation. Our system differs, however, from that of most others in one important way. In our system future migration flows into and out of a community are driven by local labour market requirements. The future need for workers is driven by the potential for employment growth in the area s key economic sectors: If the economic growth potential of the area is significant our system determines whether enough people will be available to fill all the jobs that will be created. In such circumstances our system generates net in-migration at sufficiently high rates to ensure that the future supply of labour is equal to demand. If the economic growth potential of the area is lacking our system generates net out-migration to ensure that the supply of labour is equal to demand. In other words future migration flows to and from the area in question are determined by the potential for growth in the area s local economy. Report Outline The report consists of 12 sections that can be grouped into three major themes: Sections 1 to 5 review past trends in growth in the area and current growth related planning policies and assess the potential for growth in the area s economic base. Sections 6 to 9 describe the Base Case projection we have established for the area while Section 10 describes the High Case and Low Case projection alternatives. Section 11 compares our projections to other projections for the area while Section 12 reaches a number of conclusions regarding the implications of the projections for planning. The 12 individual sections are as follows: Section 1: Introduction Section 2: Recent Population Trends in the Kingston Area City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 3

16 Section 3: Current Provincial and Local Planning Policy and its Impact on the Projections Section 4: The Economic Base of the Kingston Area Section 5: The Potential for Growth in the Area s Economic Base Section 6: The Implications for Population and Households Section 7: The Implications for Dwellings by Structural Type Section 8: Other Implications of the Projections for the CMA Section 9: Implications for the City of Kingston and the Rest of the CMA Section 10: Projection Alternatives Section 11: Comparison to Other Projections Section 12: Planning Implications of the Projections Summary Projection Tables for each of the Kingston CMA, the City of Kingston and the rest of the CMA for each of the Base, High and Low Case Projection alternatives Appendix A: Summary of Public Comments Appendix B: SPI s Community Projection System City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 4

17 Section 2 RECENT POPULATION TRENDS IN THE KINGSTON AREA The Kingston CMA consists of the City of Kingston (population 123,410 in 2011), the Township of South Frontenac (18,110), the Township of Frontenac Islands (1,860) and Loyalist Township (16,220). Thus the total population of the CMA in 2011 was 159,600. Exhibit 1 shows the location of each of the CMA s constituent municipalities in relation to nearby communities. Exhibit 1 Map of the Kingston CMA Source: City of Kingston City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 5

18 Census data indicate that the population of the Kingston CMA grew from 148,270 in 2001 to 159,600 in 2011 or at an average rate of 1,133 persons per year. 1 The population of the City grew from 115,630 to 123,410 (778 per year) while that of the rest of the CMA grew from 32,640 to 36,190 (355 per year). In 2001 the City accounted for 78.0 percent of the CMA s population and in 2011 for 77.3 percent. Over the 2001 to 2011 decade the population of the CMA grew by 7.6 percent. The population of the City grew by 6.7 percent (778 per year) while the rest of the CMA grew as follows: the Township of South Frontenac by 10.4 percent (170 per year), Loyalist Township by 11.2 percent (163 per year) and the Township of Frontenac Islands by 13.4 percent (22 per year). A significant portion of the historic population growth appears to have been as a consequence of the conversion of cottages to permanent use. Statistics Canada produces post-censal estimates of the population for various higher levels of geography throughout Canada including for CMAs and for Census Divisions (regions and counties). The post-censal estimates adjust the Census counts for the estimated undercount of the Census (usually about 3 percent of the population) and adjusts the date of estimation from that of the Census (mid-may) to July 1 st. More importantly, Statistics Canada also produces annual estimates of the total population and of births and deaths and migration flows by type by age and gender over considerable historical time spans at these geographic levels thus allowing for assessments of their major sources of population growth over time. The rest of this section reviews the sources of population growth for the Kingston CMA using Statistics Canada s most recent post-censal estimates. 2 The CMA post-censal estimates are available for the years from 1997 to Since 1997 the population of the Kingston CMA has been growing at an average annual rate of about 1,046 persons per year. From 1997 to 2012 births per year (averaging 1,440, the grey line in Exhibit 2 above) exceeded deaths per year (1,296, blue line) in each and every year but the difference averaged just 144 per year (red line). The variation in net natural growth from year to year across that period was relatively small (from a high of 323 in 1997 to a low of 24 in 2001, as illustrated in Exhibit 2). In other words the contribution of net natural population change to the CMA s growth has been minimal. 1 The figures cited here are based on 2001 and 2011 Census data of the population of each municipality by age and gender as used in the models created to develop the CMA projections described in this report. Because Statistics Canada for privacy reasons random rounds the population in each age cell to the nearest 5 the population total achieved by summing across the age cells differs slightly from the total official population estimate for each municipality. 2 The most recent post-censal estimates are based on the 2006 Census. Updated post-censal estimates based on the 2011 Census will be published by Statistics Canada later this year (2013) City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 6

19 Exhibit 2 Kingston CMA Births, Deaths and Net Natural Population Growth 1997 to 2012 Source: Statistics Canada Post-Censal Estimates Net in-migration the difference between the number of people moving into the CMA and the number moving out averaged 902 per year from 1997 to 2012 and was the area s major source of population growth (Exhibit 3 below). The net migration flow has been anything but steady, however. As a result growth in the total population of the area has increased and decreased in tandem with the changing pace of migration. Population growth was very high between 2000 and 2004 and from 2008 to But little growth occurred from 1997 to 1999 and from 2005 to City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 7

20 Exhibit 3 Kingston CMA Net Natural, Net Migration and Total Population Growth 1997 to 2012 Source: Statistics Canada Post-Censal Estimates Over the 1997 to 2012 span immigration averaged 387 per year and emigration averaged 315. In other words net international migration contributed an average of just 71 new residents to the area each year over that period (Exhibit 4, below). Net migration from other sources the rest of Ontario and the rest of Canada contributed an average of 830 new residents to the area over this period. The pace of growth in both of these contributors (international and domestic) varied from year to year across the period. But because of its relative significance to overall population growth swings in net domestic migration explained most of the variation in overall population growth from year to year in the area. All-other migration includes people moving from or to another province within Canada or from or to another community within Ontario. Domestic migration accounted for the lion s share of the Kingston CMA s population growth over the last decade and a half (Exhibit 4). City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 8

21 Exhibit 4 Kingston CMA Immigration, Emigration, Net International Migration Net All-Other Migration 1997 to 2012 Source: Statistics Canada Post-Censal Estimates City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 9

22 Section 3 CURRENT PROVINCIAL AND LOCAL PLANNING POLICY AND ITS IMPACT ON THE PROJECTIONS This section of the report reviews various Provincial, City and County policy documents and related documentation. Provincial Policy Statement The current version of the Provincial Policy Statement (PPS) came into effect on March 1, The basis of the PPS is to build strong communities, protect the environment and resources and support a strong economy. A number of Provincial interests are identified in the vision section and they include the wise management of growth, the wise use and management of the Province s resources and protecting the long-term health and safety of the population as set out below. the Provincial Policy Statement focuses growth within settlement areas and away from significant or sensitive resources and areas which may pose a risk to public health and safety. It recognizes that the wise management of development may involve directing, promoting or sustaining growth. Land use must be carefully managed to accommodate appropriate development to meet the full range of current and future needs, while achieving efficient development patterns. Efficient development patterns optimize the use of land, resources and public investment in infrastructure and public service facilities. These land use patterns promote a mix of housing, employment, parks and open spaces and transportation choices that facilitate pedestrian mobility and other modes of travel. They also support the financial well-being of the Province and municipalities over the long term, and minimize the undesirable effects of development, including impacts on air, water and other resources. Strong, liveable and healthy communities enhance social well-being and are economically and environmentally sound. Section 4.0 of the PPS states that in implementing the Provincial Policy Statement, the Official Plan is the most important vehicle for its implementation. It is further stated that: Municipal Official Plans shall identify provincial interests and set out appropriate land use designations and policies. Municipal Official Plans should also coordinate cross-boundary matters to complement the actions of other planning authorities and promote mutually beneficial solutions. City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 10

23 Municipal Official Plans shall provide clear, reasonable and attainable policies to protect provincial interests and direct development to suitable areas. In order to protect provincial interests, planning authorities shall keep their Official Plans up-to-date with this Provincial Policy Statement. The Policies of this Provincial Policy Statement continue to apply after adoption and approval of a municipal Official Plan. There are a number of key policies in the PPS that have an impact on growth management and they are reproduced below: Sufficient land shall be made available through intensification and redevelopment and, if necessary, designated growth areas, to accommodate an appropriate range and mix of employment opportunities, housing and other land uses to meet projected needs for a time horizon of up to 20 years. However, where an alternate time period has been established for specific areas of the Province as a result of a provincial planning exercise or a provincial plan, that time frame may be used for municipalities within the area Settlement areas shall be the focus of growth and their vitality and regeneration shall be promoted Land use patterns within settlement areas shall be based on: a) densities and a mix of land uses which: 1. efficiently use land and resources; 2. are appropriate for, and efficiently use, the infrastructure and public service facilities which are planned or available, and avoid the need for their unjustified and/or uneconomical expansion; and 3. minimize negative impacts to air quality and climate change, and promote energy efficiency in accordance with policy 1.8; and b) a range of uses and opportunities for intensification and redevelopment in accordance with the criteria in policy Planning authorities shall establish and implement phasing policies to ensure the orderly progression of development within designated growth areas and the timely provision of the infrastructure and public service facilities required to meet current and projected needs A planning authority may identify a settlement area or allow the expansion of a settlement area boundary only at the time of a comprehensive review and only where it has been demonstrated that: a) sufficient opportunities for growth are not available through intensification, redevelopment and designated growth areas to accommodate the projected needs over the identified planning horizon; b) the infrastructure and public service facilities which are planned or available are suitable for the development over the long term and protect public health and safety; City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 11

24 1.4.1 To provide for an appropriate range of housing types and densities required to meet projected requirements of current and future residents of the regional market area identified in policy 1.4.3, planning authorities shall: a) maintain at all times the ability to accommodate residential growth for a minimum of 10 years through residential intensification and redevelopment and, if necessary, lands which are designated and available for residential development; and b) maintain at all times where new development is to occur, land with servicing capacity sufficient to provide at least a 3 year supply of residential units available through lands suitably zoned to facilitate residential intensification and redevelopment, and land in draft approved and registered plans Infrastructure and public service facilities shall be provided in a coordinated, efficient and cost-effective manner to accommodate projected needs. Planning for infrastructure and public service facilities shall be integrated with planning for growth so that these are available to meet current and projected needs. On the basis of the above, the preparation of population, housing and employment projections become one of the key foundations for the work carried out by any municipality in implementing the PPS, since it is these projections that are the starting point for the policy development process. CITY OF KINGSTON POLICY DOCUMENTS The City of Kingston s Official Plan came into effect on January 27, 2010 (consolidating the three previous Official Plans of the former municipalities) and is based on a number of background studies, including an Urban Growth Strategy (completed in 2004) and updated population and housing projections (prepared in 2008). Section 2.2 of the Official Plan establishes the City's structure with each of these structural elements being shown on Schedule 2. The intent of Section 2.2 and Schedule 2 is to clearly articulate where significant change is expected and where change will be more gradual. The components of the City's structure shown on Schedule 2 are below: Country Area; Business District; Housing District; Major Institution; Centre; Corridor; Future Development Area; Major Open Space/Environmental Area; City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 12

25 Schedule 2 also identifies the location of the urban boundary and areas that are subject to specific phasing policies. Major roads and future major roads are also shown on Schedule 2. An example of a future major road is a new bridge crossing over the Great Cataraqui River. Section then indicates that "the City structure is based on an expected medium population growth projection to 2026 of at least 15,900 people, requiring at least 13,300 new residential units to accommodate projected growth and the trend to smaller household size." This section goes on to indicate that "an aggressive employment target of 700 (net) new jobs for the City of Kingston per year is planned for a total of approximately 14,000 jobs to The majority of the growth will be directed to lands located within the urban boundary." Section indicates that the lands within the urban boundary are intended to "recognize the substantially built-up areas of the City where major sewer, water and transportation infrastructure has been planned." The remainder of Section 2.2 establishes the long-term vision for the Housing Districts (which are generally planned to remain stable) mixed land use areas, Business Districts, Centres, The Princess Street corridor and the Major Open Space/Environmental Areas. Section 2.3 establishes the principles of growth and it is indicated in this section that "The City's goal is to strengthen its economy through robust job creation that is beyond that of a medium growth forecast." It is further stated that "the City's population and growth model shows the number of households in Kingston is expected to increase faster than the rate of population growth, because the average number of people in each residential unit is declining." Section 2.3 of the Official Plan also sets out the following overall goal for growth management in the City of Kingston: To manage future growth within the Urban Boundary and in the Country Area in a strategic and efficient manner that optimizes infrastructure and public investment, promotes diverse economic activity and prosperity, supports an attractive accessible, safe and sustainable City, protects Kingston s cultural and natural resources, and provides a variety of housing options for all residents. This goal carries forward some of the broader Provincial objectives for growth, as set out in the Provincial Policy Statement, including: prosperity, social well-being and environmental health, and the need to be strategic and efficient in terms of land use and development patterns. Section 2.4 of the Official Plan provides direction on the phasing of new development in the City of Kingston, and sets out the following overall goal: To City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 13

26 guide growth within the Urban Boundary and to establish Future Development Areas for future urban growth and infrastructure planning to ensure that the City develops in a compact and orderly manner within its ability to support a full range of utilities, infrastructure and social services. This should sustain the City s long term financial well being. Again, this goal carries forward some of the broader Provincial objectives for growth, as set out in the Provincial Policy Statement, including: efficient land use and development patterns and economic growth. One of the key policies in Section 2.4 is Section which indicates that the City "will review the order of development every five years in accordance with the legislated update of the Official Plan and the review of the Development Charges and Impost Fees By-laws in order to determine if there is a need to include additional lands within the urban boundary." Consideration will be given to the following matters as part of such a review: Actual population growth compared with project growth and the projection used; Land availability and land absorption rates; Residential and employment land densities; Assessment of the commercial inventory; Status of planned developments; Infrastructure capacities and cost of needed improvements; and Achievement of the goals and strategic policies of this plan. The matter most related to the work being completed in the context of this study is the relationship between the actual population growth that has occurred since the 2008 projections were included in the Official Plan in comparison to the growth that is projected. This is a key consideration since it is in the public interest to ensure that longterm planning and infrastructure decisions are made based on the best information available. COUNTY OF FRONTENAC POLICY DOCUMENTS Frontenac County, parts of which are located within the Kingston Census Metropolitan Area, is currently preparing its first County Official Plan. To-date, a Basis Document (May 2012) has been prepared to provide residents with background information and rationale for the development of the Official Plan. The Basis Document looks at some of the existing Regional studies and reports that affect planning in the County and will be used as the basis for the preparation of the Official Plan. Included is a summary of population projections to 2036, which were recently completed by the County (April, 2011). The following points are taken from the Basis Document and are also provided in the 2036 Projections for the Frontenacs: City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 14

27 Frontenac County s permanent population base is forecasted to steadily increase over the next 25 years from 28,100 in 2011 to 37,700 in This represents an annual growth rate of 1.1%. This is slightly lower than the Province as a whole. The County s population is aging slightly more rapidly than the Province as a whole. From 2011 to 2036, the percentage of the County s population aged 55+ will increase from 30% to 34%. This trend poses implications regarding both seniors housing and affordable housing in Frontenac County. The rate of permanent population growth for Frontenac County is forecasted to gradually decline over the next 25 years, largely due to the aging of the population. This aging trend will result in a reduction in the average number of persons per housing unit (PPU) which, in turn, will require a modest level of housing growth in each of the County s settlement areas even to maintain stable population levels. 70% of the projected growth of permanent population in the County is anticipated to occur within the Township of South Frontenac due to its proximity to Kingston and the employment opportunities available. The majority of population growth is forecast to be in the County s rural areas, similar to current and historical trends. This is in part due to the lack of municipal services in all villages and hamlets except Sydenham. The majority of subdivision applications in the County are in rural areas. Seasonal population is a significant portion of the County s population base, with 50% of the base population and 40% of all households. The Greater Toronto Area, the Greater Ottawa Region and the City of Kingston will continue to be a major source of demand for seasonal population growth in the Frontenacs. The total permanent and seasonal population in the Frontenacs will reach 66,200 persons by 2036, an increase of 9,400 from The County s employment base is forecasted to increase steadily from approximately 3,800 in 2006 to 5,300 in This will be primarily driven by growth in retail and tourism services to serve the growing population, as well as some growth in the industrial and institutional sectors. The number of County residents who work from home is also expected to steadily increase as the economy continues to transition to a service sector and knowledge-based economy, along with improvements to telecommunications. The population projections prepared by the County of Frontenac for the Township of South Frontenac and the Township of Frontenac Islands by Watson & Associates in April 2011 anticipates a considerable amount of population growth in the years to come (approximately 7,000 new people in these two communities by 2036). City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 15

28 The County of Frontenac released a new Official Plan for public review in June It is indicated in Section 1.1 of the draft Official Plan that "in terms of demographics, the number of retirees is increasing as the number of seasonal residents, in part because of the spectacular natural features of the County. On the other hand, the trend showed young people continued to move away, to larger urban centres." Section 3.1 of the draft Official Plan supports the work completed in April 2011 by Watson & Associates and indicates that the population of the County is projected to increase from 28,100 in 2011 to 37,700 in 2036 (this includes permanent population only). With respect to the makeup of that population growth, it is noted in Section of the Watson report that "over the next 25 years, the conversion of seasonal dwellings to permanent housing units is anticipated to be a key driver of permanent population and housing growth in Frontenac County." As a consequence of the above, it would appear that the majority of the population growth expected to occur in the County of Frontenac will occur as a consequence of conversion. With respect to new dwelling construction in the County of Frontenac, Table 2 within the May 2012 Basis report prepared in support of the Official Plan indicates that the population of the County as a whole decreased from 26,658 in 2006 to 26,375 in It is interesting to note is that even though the population of the County decreased by about 300 people between 2006 and 2011, the number of private dwellings in the County increased from 10,269 to 10,383 even though there was a decline in the population. As a consequence, it would appear as if virtually all of the dwelling construction was in response to the demand for cottages. Township of South Frontenac The Township of South Frontenac Official Plan came into effect November 23, The Vision for the Township is presented in the existing Official Plan as follows: South Frontenac is an amalgamation of communities whose common goals have brought them together for mutual co-operation. The Official Plan provides a framework for directing South Frontenac s growth in a manner which will preserve the Township s environmental integrity while enhancing both its rural character and its long-term economic viability. The Township s approach to growth management in the 2003 Official Plan is generally addressed by the following policies for the Settlement Areas Designation in Section 5.6 of the Plan: It is Council s intention that a majority of the new growth in the municipality will be directed to existing settlement areas where it can be supported by appropriate servicing. Settlement areas will only be expanded when existing designated areas do not have sufficient land supply to accommodate the growth projected for the next 20 years. City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 16

29 This designation is an expression of Council s long-term vision for the Settlement Areas and has been applied: a) to ensure that sufficient lands are available to permit the location of new development in full accordance with the servicing standards of the Ministry of the Environment; b) to foster the availability of affordable accommodation by providing alternate locations for new residential development and hence, a competitive housing market; c) to provide an opportunity for a varied and balanced industrial/commercial base; d) to promote a full range and mix of housing types and densities; and e) to provide sufficient land for industrial, commercial, institutional and residential uses in order to accommodate anticipated growth over the life of the plan. The Township's Official Plan is presently undergoing a five-year review. To-date, the updated Plan has been presented to Council on a number of occasions and has been displayed to the public at two open houses. As noted, Frontenac County (the Upper Tier municipality for South Frontenac) has recently completed population, housing and employment projections for the Frontenacs, which will be used as part of the Township s on-going Official Plan Review. Included in the 2036 projections is a Growth Outlook for Area Municipalities. The following key observations are included: South Frontenac s total permanent population is forecast to reach approximately 26,000 persons by 2036, an increase of 6,100 persons from 2011 to 2036; The average annual permanent population growth rate for South Frontenac over the 2036 forecast period is projected at 1.1%, which represents a steady population growth rate; Over the 25-year forecast period, South Frontenac is forecast to average approximately 99 new housing units per year, of which 95% are anticipated to be low-density housing forms (i.e. single-detached); Approximately 68% of new permanent housing development is expected to occur in the rural area outside of designated settlement areas; Demand for new seasonal housing development is expected to be relatively low in South Frontenac, averaging approximately 10 new units per year; City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 17

30 On the other hand, the potential for seasonal housing conversions to permanent use in South Frontenac is anticipated to be fairly strong averaging approximately 17 net conversions per year; and Including the seasonal population base, South Frontenac s total population is forecast to reach approximately 35,700. Township of Frontenac Islands The Township of Frontenac Islands undertook an Official Plan Review in 2009 and the new Official Plan came into effect in October, Section 1.4 of the new Official Plan provides a vision for the Township and part of that vision is as follows: The vision for Frontenac Islands is to create a strong community identity that reflects the unique island character of the area, which respects the principles of orderly, well managed growth and development, which is adequately serviced, which maintains (and preferably enhances) the quality of the natural environment and which provides for sustainable development. The new Official Plan addresses a Planning Period to the year As part of the 2009 Official Plan Review, a Community Profile was completed in February 2009, which included population projections for the Township. The following points, which summarize the projections, are taken from Section 2.1 (Basis): Howe Island has shown rapid growth in permanent residential population. Much of this growth appears to be through conversion of existing cottages to permanent occupancy. To sustain this growth new development areas will be required. We predict that growth on Howe Island will reach 705 people by year 2016, a growth of 196 people (38%). Wolfe Island has had very little population growth during the same period. We predict that the permanent population of Wolfe Island will reach 1683 people by the year 2020 a growth of 428 people (34%). Based on our analysis (2008), we predict that Frontenac Islands will grow between 2.5% and 3% per year (46 to 56 persons per year) on average and will reach a population between 2,098 and 2,145 by The rate of growth will almost exclusively result from in-migration from the greater Kingston area. Population growth rates projected for the 2007 to 2031 period by the Ministry of Finance estimate an increase of 30,000 people across the County of Frontenac (including the City of Kingston) or a net growth rate of 0.82% per annum. City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 18

31 These projections will need to be updated in accordance with the County of Frontenac s 2036 projections, which were prepared in The following points summarize key observations of the more recent projections: The total permanent population for Frontenac Islands is forecast to reach approximately 3,000 persons by 2036, an increase of 900 persons from 2011 to The average annual permanent population growth rate for Frontenac Islands over the 2011 to 2036 forecast period is projected at 1.4%, which represents a steady permanent population growth rate. Demand potential for future population growth potential on the Frontenac Islands is limited by the current capacity of the Wolfe Island and Howe Island ferries. Over the 25-year forecast period, Frontenac Islands is forecast to average approximately14 new housing units per year, of which 100% are anticipated to be low-density housing forms (i.e. single-detached). Approximately 90% of new permanent housing development is expected to occur in the rural area outside of designated settlement areas. With respect to the allocation of permanent housing growth, approximately 80% of forecast new housing construction is anticipated to occur on Wolfe Island; the remaining 20% of new housing growth is expected to occur on Howe Island. Demand for new seasonal housing development is expected to be rather minimal on the Frontenac Islands, averaging approximately 2 new units per year. Seasonal housing conversions to permanent housing on the Frontenac Islands is also anticipated to be rather minimal, at approximately 2 units per year. Including the seasonal population base, Frontenac Islands total population is forecast to reach approximately 4,700 by 2036, an increase of approximately 800 persons. In terms of a growth management strategy, Section of the current Official Plan (General Principles for Village Areas) provides direction for the Township over the Planning Period: The existing community structure shall be maintained and reinforced in accordance with their ability to sustain growth. Villages will be recognized as rural settlement areas capable of sustaining limited growth in the form of minor internal infilling or as extensions to existing development unless a communal servicing system has been installed. City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 19

32 A mix of suitable residential, commercial, community facilities and small scale industrial uses, developed on private sewage and water systems, at appropriate densities, will be encouraged within the Village designation. The future growth of Village areas should be consistent with environment, physical and socioeconomic conditions. Surrounding land uses, intensity of existing development and potential soil or ground water constraints should be considered in assessing new development proposals. Prior to significant development, a Village Settlement Capacity Study shall be completed in accordance with the policies of this Plan. Council may consider the establishment of a village settlement area on Howe Island as an area for the development of commercial and community services designed to serve the needs of the island. COUNTY OF LENNOX AND ADDINGTON POLICY DOCUMENTS The County of Lennox and Addington, part of which is located within the Kingston Census Metropolitan Area, does not currently have an upper-tier Official Plan document. Loyalist Township Loyalist Township, a lower-tier municipality located within the County of Lennox and Addington, recently undertook a comprehensive Official Plan Review, which was adopted by Council in The Official Plan is established for a planning period to the year It is recognized that this Official Plan will need to be updated. As part of the Basis for the Official Plan, a strategy for growth in the community is presented (Section 1.5.2). The strategy states that Loyalist Township is expected to reach a population of 18,024 to 23,551 by the year To manage this growth, the Official Plan provides the following direction: The majority of residential growth will take place as an expansion to existing serviced urban areas within Loyalist Township, that is, Amherstview, Bath, and Odessa. Areas of secondary and small amounts of growth are the hamlets of Millhaven,Morven, Stella, Violet, and Wilton, followed by limited estate development and land severance by consent. Industrial development is directed to the Loyalist East Business Park and Taylor Kidd Industrial Complex areas where services are or will be available. Areas of environmental sensitivity are protected from incompatible activities while being integrated with the Township and Conservation Authority open space systems. City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 20

33 Opportunities are created for the development of an integrated pedestrian, vehicular, and bicycle system. Resource areas with agricultural and aggregate potential are identified and protected from incompatible uses. OTHER CURRENT PROJECTIONS The following is a brief overview of additional growth projections that have been prepared by the municipality, as part of background studies for other planning related initiatives. Development Charges / Impost Fees Study In calculating local development charges, the Development Charges Act requires that growth forecasts be prepared in order to understand growth related costs for municipal services. In 2009, the City of Kingston undertook a Development Charge / Impost Fees Background Study, which provides the anticipated development for which the City will be required to provide services for over a 10-year (mid 2009 to mid 2019) and 20-year (mid 2009 to mid 2029) time horizon. The following points summarize key results from the growth forecast analysis that was completed as part of this Background Study: "The population is anticipated to reach 124,988 by 2019 and 136,845 by 2029 (buildout), resulting in an increase of 10,025 and 21,882 respectively over the forecast period. The buildout growth forecast is based upon a unit mix of 52% low density (single family and semi-detached), 14% medium density (multiples except apartments) and 34% high density (apartments). Annual demand for new housing within urban area of Kingston is anticipated to be approximately 610 units per year, or 95% of the total housing forecast. An increase of 680 housing units has been forecast for the rural area from 2009 to buildout. Annual demand for new housing within this area is anticipated to be approximately 34 units per year, or 5% of the total housing forecast. Total employment for the City is anticipated to reach approximately 75,489 by mid-2019 and 82,074 by mid-2029 (buildout). This represents an employment increase of 6,515 for the 10-year period and 13,100 for the 20-year (buildout) period. City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 21

34 The forecast incremental Gross Floor Area (GFA) increase for the City is 4,622,600 sq. ft. over the 10-year projection period and 9,171,000 sq. ft. over the 20-year (buildout). The City also has a Water and Sewer Impost By-law which establishes water rates and sewer rates to recover the capital cost of installing water and sanitary sewer services necessary to benefit either of the systems. This By-law (By-law ) is intended to work with the Development Charges By-law (By-law ). Municipal Housing Strategy In 2010, the City of Kingston and County of Frontenac initiated the development of a Municipal Housing Strategy that contains projections, policies, and programs for affordable housing in order to ensure a diverse housing stock in the City and County over the short, medium and long term. Phase 1 of the study involved the preparation of a Housing Demand and Supply report, which includes an overview of population and household trends and projections, economic characteristics, and household income in the City and County. In terms of population trends and projections, the Phase 1 Report is based on the projections prepared as part of the City of Kingston s most recent Official Plan Review (2008 projections) and the County s on-going Official Plan Review (2011 projections), which are summarized in Section 4.1 and 4.2 of this report, respectively. Based on the analysis of housing demand and supply, as well as public and stakeholder consultation undertaken as part of the study and a comprehensive review of current relevant policy, a series of 40 recommendations were developed as part of the final Municipal Housing Strategy. The following recommendations deal with housing targets and policy direction that is intended to accommodate projected growth while providing a diverse housing stock in the City and County: 9. That the City implement Official Plan policies which promote inclusive, sustainable and flexible communities by: - Pursuing inclusionary zoning opportunities as part of the comprehensive Zoning By-law (ZBL) review - Seeking opportunities to appropriately integrate student housing - Undertaking a broad locational analysis of affordable housing opportunities and recommending options that promote community inclusion - Reviewing demolition and conversion provisions to help further support the retention of existing rental stock. City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 22

35 10. That the City adopt refined housing targets for units to be added to the current housing stock over the next 10 years as follows: - Housing Form 60% singles, 20% multiples and 20% apartments - Housing Tenure 70% ownership, 30% rental - Housing Affordability 25% of units at rates up to the affordability threshold. 11. That the County consider establishing an Official Plan to help guide land use planning which has consistent polices among the four constituent Townships and which establishes targets for units to be added to the current housing stock over the next 10 years as follows: - Housing Form 92% singles, 4% multiples and 4% apartments - Housing Tenure 90% ownership, 10% rental - Housing Affordability 25% of units at rates up to the affordability threshold. 12. That the City support second suites as an affordable rental housing alternative by: - Encouraging and supporting applications for second suites where currently permitted in ZBL s - Developing and implementing as-of-right zoning provisions within appropriate residential zones via the comprehensive ZBL review - Encouraging built-in conversion potential for appropriate housing within new development - Streamlining administrative approvals for second suites - Enhancing awareness through the public education. City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 23

36 Section 4 THE ECONOMIC BASE OF THE KINGSTON AREA The economic activities occurring in a metropolitan region such as the Kingston CMA can be divided into those that are export-based and those that are community-based: Export-based industries produce goods that are shipped to markets outside the community (agriculture, forestry, fishing and manufacturing), or they provide services either to visitors to or temporary residents of the community (hotels, tourism attractors, specialized hospitals, colleges and universities) or to businesses outside the community (specialized financial, professional, scientific and technical services). Community-based industries produce services that meet the needs primarily of the local residents in the community (retail, medical, primary and secondary education, and personal and government services). Growth will typically occur in a metropolitan region only if its export-base is expanding. Expansion of the export-based industries drives the growth of the community at large. Without growth in its export-based industries growth in a region s community-based activities is unlikely to occur. The export-based industries in a region are often referred to as the economic-base of the area. The terms export-based industries and economicbase industries can be used interchangeably as they refer to the same concept. Using location quotient analysis 3 and Census 2006 data 4 regarding employed by place-ofwork by industry in the area we assessed the extent to which the Kingston CMA is involved in export activities. That assessment concluded that one-third (21,130) of the 64,045 jobs on a place-of-work basis existing in the CMA in 2006 were providing goods or services to people not residing in the area. The remaining 42,915 jobs represent those providing services to the area s residents. 3 In this procedure we compare the number of jobs on a place-of-work basis in the Kingston CMA for each of 35 industries on a per capita basis (17 of which represent individual manufacturing industries) to the same ratios for the province as a whole. We attribute all jobs in the Kingston CMA s primary (agriculture, forestry, mining, etc.) and manufacturing sectors to its economic-base segment since most of the products produced in these industries are destined for markets outside the region. We compare the per capita levels across all of the remaining industries, most of which are services, and attribute all jobs above the norm in the CMA to be economic-base jobs, too, since, because they are above the norm, they must represent jobs providing services to people not normally residing in the community (that is, they are providing exportable services). When economic-base service jobs crop up in the retail, food-accommodation, and artsentertainment-recreation sectors it is a sign that tourism forms part of that region s economic-base (such as occurs in the Kingston CMA). When economic-base service jobs crop up in the health, education and government sectors (as is the case in the Kingston area) it is a sign that the CMA in question is a major service provider in these industries to a province-wide base. 4 Employed by place-of-work data for 2011 were gathered as part of the National Household Survey that accompanied the 2011 Census (the NHS, a voluntary survey, replaced the mandatory Census long-form that went to every fifth household in 2001 and 2006). As of September 11, 2013 due to the fact that Statistics Canada received an unexpectedly large number of custom data requests relating to the NHS we have not yet obtained from StatsCan the detailed tables we require for this assignment even though the data were released in aggregate form on June 26, City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 24

37 Our decomposition of economic base jobs revealed that in 2006 public administration (the federal government s presence in the area in the form of defence and correctional facilities) accounted for 28 percent of the area s economic base jobs. Post-secondary education (reflecting Queen s University, St. Lawrence College and the Royal Military College) was the next most important contributor at 24 percent, followed by health care (providing specialized care to non-area residents) at 20 percent. Tourism accounted for 8 percent, industry (including mining, manufacturing and construction) for 19 percent and agriculture for the remaining 1 percent (see Exhibit 5). Exhibit 5 Kingston CMA Economic Base Employment in 2006 Source: Statistics Canada and SPI This profile suggests the Kingston CMA has a highly diversified economic base with about one fifth dependent upon industry and the remaining four fifths distributed across federal administration, education, health and tourism. This diversity represents an advantage for the Kingston area. Jobs in agriculture and manufacturing the mainstays of past regional growth have been declining for decades, a trend likely to continue. City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 25

38 In contrast, there is potential for economic base job growth in the area in health, education and tourism, growth that will offset the job declines in industry and agriculture. The potential for growth in these industries is the subject of the next section. Before turning to that subject, however, it is worth noting that almost all of the CMA s economic base jobs are located in the City. Census 2006 data reveal that fewer than 900 of the CMA s economic base jobs were located in the rural communities of the CMA and those that were are roughly split between agriculture and industry. City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 26

39 Section 5 THE POTENTIAL FOR GROWTH IN THE AREA S ECONOMIC BASE This section reviews the potential for job growth in Kingston s economic base sectors. Federal Administration Employment Labour force survey data indicate that the number of jobs in federal public administration in the Kingston area as a share of all federal government jobs nation-wide has changed very little over the last decade and a half (Exhibit 6). While the share temporarily reached almost 1.4 percent in each of 1997 and 2001 it averaged 1.08 percent over the entire span from 1996 to 2012 and since 2004 has varied only slightly from that average. Exhibit 6 Federal Administration and Defence Employment Kingston CMA as a Percent Share of Total Canada from 1996 to Source: Statistics Canada and SPI City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 27

40 The Census data regarding employment by place-of-work indicate that in 2006 there were 9,195 public administration jobs in total in the Kingston CMA. The Census data do not provide details regarding the federal, provincial and local split of such jobs. Our location quotient exercise in Section 4 suggests that 5,870 of the 9,195 total exceeded the norm for a community of its size. We concluded that these 5,870 public administration jobs reflect the abnormally high federal administration and defence presence in the area and that the remaining 3,325 reflect the public administration presence that would normally be expected in a community the size of the Kingston area. Over the 1996 to 2012 period the number of federal administration jobs nation-wide including those in the National Capital Region and those in communities throughout Canada grew by 32 percent. Over that span Canada s population grew by 18 percent. On a per capita basis federal administration employment grew from 9.46 federal jobs per 1,000 residents in 1996 to in 2012 or by 12 percent (by 1.14 jobs per 1,000 residents over that 16 year span). Our long-term economic and demographic projections for Canada foresee federal jobs increasing from per 1,000 residents in 2012 to per 1,000 in 2041, a gain of 7 percent over a span of 29 years. In other words we expect federal jobs per 1,000 residents nation-wide to slow from an average annual gain of per 1,000 from 1996 to 2012 to an average annual gain of just per 1,000 from 2012 to 2041, a pace in the future one-third that of the past. We expect such a significant slowdown for a number of reasons relating both to the need to cut back spending and staff in the face of large deficits and to the ability to cut back by achieving productivity gains through the adoption of better technologies, better management techniques, etc. Over the period from 2012 to 2041 we expect Canada s population to grow by 33 percent. Applying to that projection our assumption regarding reduced future growth in federal administration jobs per capita we project federal employment nation-wide will grow between 2012 and 2041 by 41 percent. Recall that when Canada s population grew by 18 percent between 1996 and 2012 federal jobs grew by 32 percent (a ratio of 1.8). Our projected future pace of 41 percent federal job growth and 33 percent population growth reflects a significant slowdown in federal job growth (a ratio of just 1.2). We estimate that the federal presence in the area as of 2012 was about where it was in 2006 at about 5, In response to recent announcements we estimate that cutbacks of about 300 per year in each of 2013 and 2014 will reduce that presence by 2014 to 5,200. If federal administration in the Kingston CMA keeps pace with projected federal jobs nationally from 2014 to 2041 we would expect the estimated 5,200 export based public administration jobs in the area in 2014 to increase to about 7,100 in Labour Force Survey data for the Kingston CMA indicate that federal administration employment grew in 2007 and 2008 but that cutbacks in 2009, 2010 and 2011 brought the level in 2011 back to where it was in City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 28

41 Public consultations held throughout the community in connection with this assignment led us to conclude local stakeholders do not expect the federal presence in the area to grow in line with future federal job growth nationwide. The community expects the federal presence to remain at about the estimated for 2014 of about 5,200 across the projection horizon. Reflecting that sentiment we assumed in our Base Case projection for the area that the number of jobs in federal administration will hold steady across the projection horizon at the level expected for Exhibit 7 compares this Base Case projection for federal administration jobs in the area to a projection consistent with the assumption that the area maintains its share of federal administration jobs nation-wide. We return to this alternative projection later in this report as part of our discussion of the High Case alternative. Exhibit 7 Kingston CMA Federal Administration and Defence Employment Historical 2001 to 2012 Base and High Projections 2013 to ,000 Base High 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Source: SPI City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 29

42 Post-Secondary Education Employment The Census data regarding employment by place-of-work indicate that in 2006 there were 9,200 education jobs in total in the Kingston CMA. The Census data do not provide details regarding the elementary, secondary and post-secondary split of such jobs. Our location quotient exercise in Section 4 suggests that 5,020 of the 9,200 total exceeded the norm for a community of its size. We concluded that these 5,020 education jobs reflect the presence of Queen s University in the area and that the remaining 4,180 reflect the elementary and secondary education presence that would normally be expected in a community the size of the Kingston area. Province-wide data show that the share of persons aged 20 to 29 pursuing undergraduate studies increased from 27.5 percent in 2001 to 35.7 percent in 2006 (up 8.2 percentage points in 5 years) and to 36.8 percent in 2011 (up 1.1 percentage points in 5 years). In projecting future undergraduate enrollments Ontario-wide we assumed the share would increase 1.1 percentage points every five years, the slow pace between 2006 and Province-wide data show that the share of persons aged 20 to 29 pursuing graduate studies increased from 3.3 percent in 2001 to 4.2 percent in 2006 (up 0.9 percentage points in 5 years) and to 5.3 percent in 2011 (up 1.1 percentage points in 5 years). In projecting future graduate enrollments Ontario-wide we assumed the share would increase 1.1 percentage points every five years, the pace between 2006 and The population of persons 20 to 29 in Ontario today is about 1.95 million. Our projections foresee that total increasing slightly through to 2016 reaching 2.03 million, then declining slightly each year through to 2026 reaching 1.88 million. Beyond 2026 the population aged 20 to 29 will increase gradually reaching 2.07 million in Applying the above described assumptions regarding the shares of persons aged 20 to 29 enrolled in undergraduate and graduate studies province-wide over the span 2014 to 2041 means that the number of university students will reach 435,000 in 2016, remain close to that level through to around 2023 then climb gradually to reach 572,000 by Queen s University has accounted for an average of 4.5 percent of all undergraduate students in Ontario over the last few years down from its share in 2001 of 5.9 percent. Queen s has accounted for an average of 7.3 percent of all graduate students in Ontario over the last few years down from its share in 2001 of 8.2 percent. We assumed here that its recent shares will be maintained across the projection horizon. Holding faculty to student ratios constant over the projection period means that the number of post-secondary education jobs in the Kingston CMA is likely to increase from an estimated 5,150 today to reach 5,300 by Between 2016 and 2023 that faculty count should hold steady, then it should gradually grow over the remainder of the projection period to reach 7,200 in City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 30

43 Exhibit 8 Kingston CMA Post-Secondary Employment Historical 2001 to 2012 Projected 2013 to ,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Source: Statistics Canada and SPI We have assumed this pace of employment growth in post-secondary education in preparing our Base Case projection for the Kingston area. Our stakeholder consultations revealed that the path assumed here for enrolments and faculty is in line with the university s medium term expectations. Exhibit 8 above illustrates the path we have assumed for post-secondary education from now through 2041 against the backdrop of past employment. Health Services Employment The Census data regarding employment by place-of-work indicate that in 2006 there were 10,665 health care and social service jobs in total in the Kingston CMA. Our location quotient exercise in Section 4 suggests that 4,130 of the 10,665 total exceeded the norm for a community of its size. City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 31

44 We concluded that these 4,130 jobs reflect the presence of specialized health care facilities in the area serving the needs of residents beyond the Kingston CMA community and that the remaining 6,535 reflect the health and social service presence that would normally be expected in a community the size of the Kingston area. Our Ontario health care model projects the number of doctors and other hospital workers that will be required province-wide in the future taking into account the following: the share of elderly persons in the population (the aging of the Baby Boomers) will steadily increase over the projection horizon health care spending per person increases dramatically with age health care spending in total will therefore increase faster than the population itself taking the above two realities into account there may be productivity gains in the future among health care workers, but the gains in the past have been modest (partly this is a measurement problem) there likely will be gains across time in health care spending per patient across all age groups reflecting new procedures, etc. In developing our projections we have assumed that future productivity gains will be offset by increased spending per patient due to new advanced procedures. The model projects that the number of doctors and other hospital workers in Ontario will increase between 2013 and 2041 by 65 percent over a period during which the total population of Ontario increases by 38 percent. It is important to note that the population 65 and over in Ontario increases over that span by 112 percent! In developing the Base Case projection for export based health services in the Kingston CMA we assumed their number will grow from an estimated 4,380 currently to 7,200 by 2041, a gain of two thirds, a gain in line with our projection for Ontario as a whole. That projection is illustrated in Exhibit 9. Local health officials do not develop long-term projections so they are not in a position to confirm or refute our projections. City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 32

45 Exhibit 9 Kingston CMA Specialized Health Care Services Employment Historical 2001 to 2012 Projected 2013 to ,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Source: Statistics Canada and SPI Other Economic Base Employment In developing our Base Case projections for employment in industry, agriculture and tourism we assumed that the number of jobs in these industries in the Kingston area will decline in the future at the pace we expect such jobs to decline across Ontario as a whole. In other words we assumed the Kingston area will maintain its market share for such jobs in Ontario in the decades ahead. Jobs in agriculture and industry have been declining for decades across the country, hence our expectation for further declines in the decades ahead. Note that for both agriculture and manufacturing we expect production (real GDP) will increase over time but, because productivity growth in both will exceed GDP growth, we expect the number of jobs to decline. This assumption implies that industry employment in the Kingston CMA will fall from 3,780 today to 3,490 in 2041 and that agriculture jobs will fall from 645 today to 330. Tourism is primarily made up of employment in three industries: retail trade; food and beverages; and recreation and entertainment. Our location quotient assessment in Section 4 revealed there were about 1,770 tourism jobs in the area in 2006 and we estimate the number currently to be about 1,900. City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 33

46 In developing our Base Case projection we assumed the Kingston CMA s jobs in tourism will grow at a rate matching our projected growth rate for jobs in these three industries province-wide. That implies that the number of tourism jobs in the area will grow to 2,450 by Exhibit 10 illustrates the future trends in employment we assumed for agriculture (green), industry (gray) and tourism (blue) for the Kingston CMA through to 2041 against a backdrop of employment in these three industries from 2001 to Exhibit 10 Kingston CMA Agriculture, Industry and Tourism Employment Historical 2001 to 2012 Projected 2013 to ,000 Agriculture Industry Tourism 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Source: Statistics Canada and SPI City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 34

47 Total Economic Base Employment Exhibit 11 reproduces the projections for each of these sectors together in one stacked bar chart. This exhibit reveals that while jobs in agriculture and industry are expected to decline over time jobs and federal jobs to stay flat all other sectors are expected to grow such that the total number of economic base jobs projected for 2041 (25,920) exceeds the total number today (21,240) by 4,680, gain of 22 percent. Exhibit 11 Kingston CMA Economic Base Jobs by Major Sector Historical 2001 to 2012 Projected 2013 to ,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Federal Health Education Tourism Industry Agriculture 5, Source: Statistics Canada and SPI City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 35

48 Section 6 THE IMPLICATIONS FOR POPULATION AND HOUSEHOLDS This section of the report discusses the impacts of the Kingston area s expanding economic base on population and household growth for the Base Case projection. The Baby Boom Phenomenon The Baby Boom Generation a nation-wide phenomenon was born between 1946 and 1966 when the total fertility rate was in the 3 to 4 range (the TFR reflects the implied average number of children per female of child bearing age given prevailing rates by age). The oldest Boomers as of 2013 are therefore 67 years of age and the youngest are 47. By 2031 all the Boomers will be 65 years or older and by 2041 they ll all be 75 or older. Over the next three decades, therefore, most of the working Boomers will retire. Most of the jobs from which they retire will need to be filled by someone else. Because they did not fully replace themselves there isn t enough of a homegrown next generation available to fill all the jobs they ll be vacating. This phenomenon will occur in communities throughout the entire country. Most people when they retire remain in the community in which they pursued their careers. They might move to a smaller dwelling; they might spend more time travelling; they might live elsewhere during either the winter or summer months. But most do not move away; they stay close to relatives and friends and spend most of their incomes and savings on local goods and services. As the Boomers retire from their jobs in both the economic-base and the community-base sectors they will need to be replaced by new workers. Because they did not replace themselves Canada s annual immigration flows will have to increase significantly from current rates if we are to fill the jobs that will be created. Migrants are relatively young people (20 and 40) often with youngsters in tow; migrants from other parts of the province, the country, and the world will take many of the new jobs being created and of the jobs being vacated by the retiring Boomers. Exhibit 12 below reveals that even with higher net in-migration triggered by this phenomenon the annual growth in the population aged 20 to 74 6 will not keep pace fully with the annual increase in jobs. For Canada this means higher than historical rates of immigration will be required from 2011 through to 2031 followed by a significant slowdown after The high rates are needed to backfill as the Boomers retire. Reduced rates are needed after they retire because those that replaced them young migrants will be nowhere near retirement age by They will not need to be replaced for quite some time so immigration rates can decline significantly after In other words Canada s population will grow quickly each year between 2011 and 2031 then slowly after Traditionally the population aged 15 to 64 has been viewed as the group from which we draw most of our employed persons. However, those aged 15 to 19 have now reached very low rates of labour market participation while those over 65 are retiring later in life than was once the case. This is so because they are living longer and therefore they want to work and/or because they have to work having had to postpone their retirement plans due to the recent recession. We use the age group 20 to 74, therefore, as a more realistic reflection Canada s current and future potential labour pool. City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 36

49 Exhibit 12 Kingston CMA Annual Change in Population Aged 20 to 74 and in Total Employed Estimated and Projected 2011 to ,000 Population Total Employed 1,500 1, ,000-1, Source: Statistics Canada and SPI This pattern of higher than average growth for two decades followed by slower than average beyond will occur throughout the country including in the Kingston area. But because the Kingston area in the future will not be growing as quickly as Canada s major metropolitan areas which will attract the lion s share of Canada s economic base growth and most of its net international migration in the period beyond 2031 Kingston s population will decline slightly as the populations in the larger metropolitan areas slow down. We project the CMA s population will increase from 159,600 in 2011 to 193,500 in 2033 then decline gradually to 185,530 by After 2031 all the Boomers will be 65 or over so the impact of their retiring on net inmigration will no longer exist. Furthermore, the oldest Boomers as of 2031 those that survive will be 85 or older. So more and more of them will pass away each year. City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 37

50 These two phenomena the slowdown in net in-migration beyond 2031 and the passing away of the eldest Boomers beyond that year mean the population of the Kingston area will gradually decline shortly thereafter. In our projections we have assumed the employed share of persons aged 20 to 74 will gradually increase over time reflecting the fact that many Boomers want to work past the age of 65 while many others need to work because of the recent recession s impacts on their savings. Despite the higher expected rates of labour market participation among Boomers 65 and over, the rate at which the rest retire will trigger the need for in-migration. Exhibit 13 shows the total population of the CMA from 2001 to 2041 in stacked bar format broken into the key age components: those 20 to 74 (blue bars), those 75 and over (grey bars) and those 0 to 19 (green bars). Superimposed is a dark blue line reflecting the total number of employed CMA residents. Exhibit 13 Kingston CMA Annual Population Aged 20 to 74 and Total Employed Historical 2001 to 2012 Projected 2013 to 2041 Source: Statistics Canada and SPI City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 38

51 The in-migration of younger people over the 2011 to 2031 period means births will increase from the rates witnessed between and Once the inmigration slows beyond 2031 births will slow in tandem. By births will be back to levels. Deaths will increase steadily in the future reflecting the aging and gradual disappearance of the Baby Boom Generation (Exhibit 14 below). Exhibit 14 Kingston CMA Births and Deaths Five-Year Periods from to ,000 Births Deaths 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Source: Statistics Canada and SPI Exhibit 15 below reveals that, on balance, the population of the Kingston CMA will be positively impacted from net natural population growth (births less deaths, blue line) through to But beyond 2031 net natural population growth will turn increasingly negative. Exhibit 15 also reveals that net migration (red line) will be significantly positive so long as the Baby Boom retirement phenomenon is in play and thus will positively impact total population growth in the area. But beyond 2031, however, net migration too will turn increasingly negative for the reasons cited above. City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 39

52 Exhibit 15 Kingston CMA Net Natural, Net Migration and Total Population Growth Five-Year Periods from to ,000 Total Change Net Natural Net Migration 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, ,000-4,000-6,000-8, Source: Statistics Canada and SPI As a result total population growth the sum of net natural and net migration population growth (blue bars) will turn increasingly negative beyond 2031 in the Kingston area. Our assumptions regarding the economic base jobs in the area in the Base Case projection suggest they will continue to grow steadily across the projection horizon. But because the population starts to decline after 2033 community base jobs in the area will also decline. The decline in community base jobs exceeds the increase in economic base jobs beyond 2033 so total employment declines over the final 8 years of the projection period (Exhibit 16). It is important to note that the decline in population after 2033 is not the result of an underperforming economic base in the Kingston area. Rather it stems from the area having achieved by 2031 an adequate supply of working aged people thus no need for high rates of in-migration for a while beyond that point coupled with the gradual disappearance through death of the long retired Baby Boomers. City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 40

53 Exhibit 16 Kingston CMA Economic-Base and Community-Base Employment Historical 2001 to 2012 Projected 2013 to ,000 Economic Base Community Base 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Source: Statistics Canada and SPI The Population by Age and Gender Exhibit 17 compares the number of people in the Kingston CMA by single year age and gender in 2011 males are on the left and females are on the right (clear bars) to the number we project for each age and gender group for 2041 (light blue bars). Recall that the projections foresee the CMA s population will increase from 159,600 in 2011 to 193,500 in 2033 then declining gradually to 185,530 by Exhibit 17 compares 2041 to 2011 and shows which age and gender categories absorb the gain of almost 26,000 in total population over that span. City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 41

54 Exhibit 17 Kingston CMA Population by Age and Gender Actual in 2011 and Projected for 2041 Source: Statistics Canada and SPI Exhibit 17 is most revealing: By 2041 everyone living in Kingston in 2011 will have aged 30 years (no surprise there). The dominant age group in 2011 those aged 20 or so will be 50 years of age in Thus the dominant age group in 2041 will be those aged 50 or so. The second most dominant age group in 2011 those aged 50 or so will be 80 or so by Thus among the elderly in 2041 the major age group will be those around the age of 80. Many will not survive to 2041, however, so the number of 80 year olds in 2041 will be fewer than the number of 50 year olds in There will be about the same number of people in each age and gender group under the age of 65 in 2041 as there were in No more, no less! City of Kingston and Kingston CMA Population, Housing and Employment Projections Page 42