GROWTH STRATEGY REPORT FOR THE OKANAGAN SIMILKAMEEN REGION, 2004 to 2031

Transcription

1 GROWTH STRATEGY REPORT FOR THE OKANAGAN SIMILKAMEEN REGION, 2004 to 2031 Population Age Profile, Okanagan Similkameen RD, 2004 and Female Male 1, ,000 Prepared for: THE OKANAGAN SIMILKAMEEN REGIONAL DISTRICT January 2005 URBAN FUTURES Suite West Pender Street Vancouver Canada V6B 6H5 tel: fax: mail@urbanfutures.com www: urbanfutures.com

2 GROWTH STRATEGY REPORT FOR THE OKANAGAN SIMILKAMEEN REGION, 2004 to 2031 Prepared for: THE OKANAGAN SIMILKAMEEN REGIONAL DISTRICT January 2005 Reproduction of this report in whole or in part without permission of the Okanagan Similkameen Regional District or the authors is prohibited. Brief extracts for review purposes may be made with due acknowledgment of the source. The information contained in this report has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable but the accuracy of the information is not guaranteed. This report is provided for general information purposes only, and is not to be applied to specific situations without the benefit of independent professional advice. Suite West Pender Street Vancouver Canada V6B 6H5 tel: fax: www: urbanfutures.com

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS URBAN FUTURES TABLE OF CONTENTS... 1 I. INTRODUCTION... 1 II. THE DEMOGRAPHIC CONTEXT FOR THE REGIONAL GROWTH STRATEGY IN THE OKANAGAN SIMILKAMEEN REGION Current distribution of the Okanagan Similkameen RD s population Trends in age specific natality, mortality and migration Trend based population projections for the Okanagan Similkameen Region... 9 III. HOUSING IN THE OKANAGAN SIMILKAMEEN REGION The Lifecycle Pattern of Private Housing by Structure Type, the Penticton Census Agglomeration and the Okanagan Similkameen Region Projected Occupancy Demand in the Penticton CA, 2004 to IV. THE ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS OF CHANGE Economic Structure of the Okanagan Similkameen RD, Industry Structure Occupational Structure Place of Residence and of Work for Employed Labour Force, OSRD, Labour Supply and Demand in the Okanagan Similkameen RD and Sub-areas, Historical and Projected Projected Labour Demand, 2004 to V. APPENDIX

4 I. INTRODUCTION i URBAN FUTURES As part of the Regional Growth Strategy Urban Futures was retained to prepare projections of changes in population, housing occupancy demand, and labour supply and demand between 2004 and 2031 for the Okanagan Similkameen Regional District (OSRD). These projections provide the Region with estimates of the nature and magnitude of change that may be experienced with respect to the size and the composition of its population, household structures, and workforce over the coming three decades. In addition to identifying the broad trends that will shape the character of the Region over the coming decades, these projections provide the Regional District with inputs for long-range planning initiatives ranging from residential and commercial land use designations to transportation and service delivery planning programs. The projections will also assist in the development of a greater understanding of the change that the Region must both anticipate and, more importantly, respond to, in the coming years. This report has three major components. This first section focuses on the past, present and future demography of the Okanagan Similkameen Regional District and its three subareas (defined in this report as the communities centred on Penticton, on Osoyoos, and throughout the rest of the OSRD; a complete listing of the communities that comprise each sub-area is included on in the Appendix). This section opens with a brief discussion of the age structure of the current population, and of the trends that will shape population change over the coming decades. It then presents a trend scenario of change for the Region s (and each sub-area) population over the 2004 to 2031 period. The projection of population also establishes the demographic basis for the housing occupancy demand and labour projections. The second major section examines the linkages between demographic change and housing occupancy demand, by two structure types: ground oriented (single detached households, duplexes, row houses, etc.) and apartment units (structures comprising multiple storeys and multiple dwelling units). In this context, the focus is on the age of the individual primarily responsible for the household s finances, which provides the link between future demographic changes and its implications for housing occupancy demand. The final component of the report presents a breakdown of the economic structure of the Region and projections for future labour supply (i.e., changes in the Region s labour force) and labour demand (i.e., the pattern of employment change by sector). It should be noted that projections presented in all parts of this research are scenarios based on historical trends exhibited at the local, regional, provincial and national levels. As with all future oriented statements, these projections are based on assumptions about the continuance of stated trends and conditions. As such, all projections are conditional, describing what will occur if the stated conditions prevail. Other scenarios, for example based on an expressed set of policy variables adopted for each respective community, could be advanced for each area. If resources are available, it would be useful to prepare alternatives to this trend based approach, particularly if they are, as are the scenarios presented in these reports, empirically based. Page. 1

5 II. THE DEMOGRAPHIC CONTEXT FOR THE REGIONAL GROWTH STRATEGY IN THE OKANAGAN SIMILKAMEEN REGION Over the past two decades community issues and strategic planning have largely focused on growth and growth management. While such issues will continue to be part of community concerns, they will be increasingly supplanted by issues of change and change management. The growing appreciation of the importance of change will come from the acknowledgement of the implications, for both public and private life, firstly of an aging population, and secondly of changes in the base of economic activities in regions of the province. In the context of population projections and demography, the focus will shift from broad projections of total population to more detailed analysis of changes in the underlying composition of the population and associated implications on planning related issues. As a result, the preparation, analysis and understanding of various scenarios for growth and change are the foundation of effective strategic planning. Due to the fact that much of the future change in a community s demography - and hence its demand for housing and its economic structure - is rooted in the characteristics of its current population, the current age structure of the Region s population is the logical starting point. 2.1 Current distribution of the Okanagan Similkameen RD s population Figure Based on the most recent Census count, the Okanagan Similkameen Region s population was 76,860 residents in Currently (2004), the number of permanent residents living in the Region is Population by Age, OSRD, 2004 Most Typical Resident: 46 Years of Age Female 81,278 Permanent Residents Male 75 plus: 14% % : 20% Figure : 28% Under 15: 14% estimated to stand at 81,278. The 2004 estimate (versus count) of population has been adjusted for the net Census undercount, which usually ranges between three and five percent. The 2001 estimated population, once adjusted for the undercount, for the Regional District was 80,060, four percent more than the 2001 Census count. The next official count will come with the 2006 Census... Like most regions in Canada, the Okanagan Similkameen s age profile Page 2

6 generally shows the typical Baby Boomer bulge in the 35 to 54 age cohort. This segment of the population currently accounts for 28 percent of all residents in the Regional District, with the most typical resident in the District being 45 years of age. The generation prior to the Baby Boomers the 55 to 74 year olds makes up 26 percent of the total population; if the 14 percent of the population aged 75 plus are also considered, an observation is that 40 percent of the people living in the Okanagan Similkameen RD are 55 years of age or older, making its profile somewhat top-heavy. The smallest segment of the population can be found in the under 15 age group, which comprises 14 percent of the region s population, with the 15 to 34 age group accounting for remaining 20 percent. The profile for the younger generations is, in part, indicative of the high degree of mobility found in the population between the ages of 15 and 34 and the pull of employment and education magnets in other regions and provinces attracting young migrants from the OSRD. Overall, this pattern differs considerably from the provincial average, where the most typical resident is 40 years old, 32 percent of the population is between the ages of 35 and 54 and 27 percent is between the ages of 15 and 34. The slight over-representation in the elderly age cohorts relative to the provincial average is indicative of the region being attractive to retirees, through both the retention of its own residents upon retirement and the attraction of those from surrounding areas. Figure When the Region is broken down into its component sub-areas, it can be seen that sixtyeight percent (55,333) of the people living within the OSRD reside in the communities centred on Penticton (hereinafter referred to as Penticton ). Due to the high percentage of the region s permanent residents living in this sub-area, Penticton s age profile resembles that of the Regional District. The majority (28 percent) of Penticton s residents are in the 35 to 54 age cohort, followed by 24 percent in the 55 to 74 cohort, and the 20 percent in the 15 to 34 age group. The youngest and oldest age groups round out Population by Age, Penticton and Region, 2004 Most Typical Resident: 47 Years of Age Female 55,333 Permanent Residents 75 plus: 13% Male % : 20% : 28% Under 15: 15% the population, with 15 percent being under the age of 15 and 13 percent being 75 and older. Compared to the region as a whole, the most typical resident living in Penticton is only two years old older, at 47 years of age. Page 3

7 Figure URBAN FUTURES The Osoyoos sub-area, which lies in the southeastern portion of the Okanagan Similkameen Region, is home to 20 percent of the Region s population. Of the 16,260 permanent residents in this part of the OSRD, the largest age cohort is the 55 to 74 group, with 30 percent of the subarea s population, making it the oldest population in the Population by Age, Osoyoos and Region, 2004 Most Typical Resident: 70 Years of Age Female 16,260 Permanent Residents 75 plus: 14% Male : 25% : 18% OSRD (Figure 3). The second-largest cohort is the 35 to 54 year olds, with 25 percent of the population followed by the 18 percent of residents aged 15 to 34. The two remaining groups are the 75 plus (14 percent) and the under 15 years of age (13 percent). As seen in Figures 2 and 3, the age profile for Osoyoos differs considerably, as the typical resident is much older (70 versus 46 years of age). Underlying this is a relative underrepresentation of people aged 15 to 54 when compared to the region as a whole, as seen in the narrow waist in the mid-20 year old age groups % Under 15: 13% Figure Population by Age, Other OSRD, 2004 Most Typical Resident: 57 Years of Age Female 9,684 Permanent Residents 75 plus: 10% Male : 17% % : 28% Under 15: 14% The remainder of the Okanagan Similkameen Region (hereafter called the Other OSRD sub-area), is also older than region as a whole. For example, while 14 percent of the subarea s population is less than 15 years old, only 10 percent is older than age 74. With most of the population falling into the 55 to 74 age category (31%), the subarea s most typical resident was a 57 years old. Rounding out the Other OSRD s population is the 35 to 54 age cohort, with 28 percent of the population, and the 15 to 34 age group, with 17 percent of the subarea s residents. Page 4

8 2.2 Trends in age specific natality, mortality and migration Figure 5 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% Changes in the size and age composition of a region s population are brought about via the interaction of aging, births, deaths and migration into and out of a community. The difference between births and deaths is referred to as natural increase, although in the longer term the difference between the two may lead to declines (rather than increases) in the population. Net migration refers to the number of people who move to the community from other parts of the province, other provinces, and other countries, minus the reverse flows. Two characteristics of these flows are important in projecting future population: the aggregate level or size of the flow, and the age composition of the flow. Each factor natural increase and migration will be discussed in turn below. Natality: In terms of the natural components of population change, the most significant demographic variable has historically been the average number of children born to a woman during her lifetime, which is commonly termed the birth, fertility, or natality rate. The pivotal value for this rate, called the replacement level birth rate, is slightly greater than an average of two children born per woman during her life (2.1 to be precise). Above this rate, a population grows and becomes younger as two older people (the parents) are replaced by more than two younger people (their kids); over the long run and in the absence of migration, a birth rate below the replacement level will not only lead to a decline in the population, but it will also grow older. Age Specific Fertility Rate, OSRD, 2001 Percentage of Women in Age Group Giving Birth During Year years old) residents during the year Total Fertility Rates OSRD: 1.45 BC Average: 1.38 Age specific fertility rates for the Okanagan Similkameen Region are presented in Figure 5. In the Region the age specific fertility rate (i.e., the percentage of women of each age giving birth within the year by age) has a normal bell-shape distribution, with the greatest likelihood of having a child occurring for women 30 years of age: on average ten percent of the 30 year old females in Region gave birth during the year. Naturally, the fewest number of children were born to each of the youngest (15 years old) and oldest (49 Page 5

9 Figure 6 When the age specific fertility rates are summed across all relevant ages (i.e., 15 to 49 years, the length of the typical childbearing phase of the lifecycle) the result is the total fertility rate (or TFR). In 2001 the OSRD s TFR stood at This compares to 1.38 in British Columbia as a whole in 2001 (where, on average 1.38 children would be born to a woman in her lifetime). Both provincial and regional rates are significantly less than the replacement level of 2.1, indicating that without positive net migration, the Region would, over the long run, experience an absolute decline in its population and significant increases in the average age of residents Age Specific Fertility Rate, OSRD, Selected LHAs, 2001 Births per 1000 women in age group 22.8 Penticton Southern Okanagan BC Average Figure 6 provides a snapshot of the age specific fertility rates (in this case, the number of births per 1000 women in 5-year age groups in 2001) for women in the Penticton and Southern Okanagan (Osoyoos) Local Health Areas and the province as a whole In each region women in the 25 to 29 age group were most likely to have a child with a rate of children per 1000 women in the Southern Okanagan, 88.6 in Penticton, and 85.6 in the whole of the province. Relative to the provincial average, both Local Health Areas show slightly higher fertility rates, and a pattern of having kids that is younger: this can be seen by the large drop-off in fertility rates between the 25 to 29 and 30 to 34 age groups in the OSRD sub-regions - equal to an 18 percent decline in the Southern Okanagan and a 22 percent decline in Penticton - compared to only a 2 percent decline in throughout the province. Total fertility rates for the Southern Okanagan, Penticton, and BC, stood at 1.54, 1.36, and, 1.38 births per women during her lifetime respectively TFR When examining trends in total fertility rates over the past decade, two features are evident (Figure 7). The first is that fertility rates in each area (and the rest of Canada) have been declining. In the province as a whole the number of births per 1000 women fell by 15 percent between 1994 and This compares to a decline of 23 percent in the Southern Okanagan and a 26 percent decline in Penticton. Declining total fertility rates are largely attributable to a higher prevalence of women in the labour force and shorter period over which women are having kids. Increasing labour force participation and the postponing effect have been major contributors to the continued decline in total fertility rates. 1,541 1,357 1,379 Page 6

10 Figure URBAN FUTURES Total Fertility Rate (Births per 1000 women 15 to 49), Selected OSRD LHAs, 1994 to 2003 Penticton Figure Southern Okanagan The second observation is that total fertility rates in the Southern Okanagan Local Health Area have been consistently higher than those seen in Penticton or the province as a whole. Between 1994 (when Penticton actually experienced a higher total fertility rate than did the Southern Okanagan) and 2003 (when the rates in the two LHAs were essentially equal), women in the Southern Okanagan gave birth to 22 percent more children than did their counterparts in Penticton. Note that while the Southern Okanagan LHA has generally been higher than Penticton, the year to year variance seen in the Southern Okanagan is in part due to the smaller base population and small sample sizes. The past decade of below the replacement level (and declining) fertility rates across the subregions mean that sufficient net in-migration will be necessary to offset the impact of natural increase: even in 2004 the estimated number of deaths outweighed the number of births in the OSRD BC Life Expectancy by Selected LHA, Okanagan Similkameen RD, 1987 to 1991 & 1999 to 2003 Penticton Southern Okanagan British Columba Total Mortality: Not surprisingly, life expectancy in the Region increased over the past decade and a half. Figure 8 shows that between and the Penticton LHA saw the life expectancy of its residents at birth rise from 79.1 to 80.4 years, an increase of 1.3 years (Figure 8). In the Southern Okanagan (Osoyoos), life expectancy rose from 78.2 years in the first period to 80.1 years in the most recent period, an increase of 1.9 years Page 7

11 Figure 9 100,000 10,000 1, Age URBAN FUTURES Contrasting these increases are the provincial gains where life expectancy grew more quickly, from 78.0 to 80.4 years over the same timeframe, for an increase of 2.4 years. In general, increasing life expectancies serve to mitigate the downward pull that low fertility rates have had on population growth. While life expectancy is generally the variable considered in discussions of an aging population, in modeling we are concerned not with expectation of life but with the age specific pattern of mortality. For example, Figure 9 shows the annual number of deaths of persons of each age per 100,000 persons of that age in the Okanagan Similkameen Age Specific Mortality Rates, OSRD, 2001 Annual Number of Deaths to Persons of Each Age Per 100,000 Persons of That Age 0 5 Logarithmic Scale Males Females Regional District for Two general patterns are noteworthy within this age specific pattern. The first, and most painfully obvious to most of us, is that mortality rates generally increase with age. The exception to this trend are mortality rates for the youngest in our population, where male rates fall from 247 deaths per 100,000 individuals under one year of age to only 12 deaths per 100,000 for those one year of age. The same pattern is seen for females, declining from 618 deaths under age one to 9 deaths per 100,000 for those one year old. The second pattern of note is that males generally have a higher probability of dying at each respective age when compared to their female counterparts. The most significant difference between male and female mortality in the Region occur in the 15 to 35 age group, in part due to occupational hazards in the work place, and in part due to behavioural traits. As data on mortality are not published on a more disaggregated geographic level (i.e., by Local Health Area or otherwise), for the purposes of projecting future population change in the Regions sub-areas, mortality rates for the Region were assumed to be representative of those for each respective sub-areas; a reasonable assumption given our relatively universal health and healthcare system. Page 8

12 Figure 10 URBAN FUTURES Average Annual Population Mobility Flows by Age, OSRD, 2001 to Figure 11 International Inter-provincial Intra-provincial The final component of demographic change is migration. Net migration is the product of people moving to and from other regions in the province (net intraprovincial migration), people moving to and from other provinces (net interprovincial) and people moving between Canada and other countries (net immigration). There is a distinct age specific pattern for each of these components. Figure 10 shows that between 2001 and 2003 the OSRD was characterized by inflows of both intra- and interprovincial migration in the under 18 and 25 to 70 age groups, and net outflows in the 19 to 26 and 70 plus age groups. The largest net inflows are in the pre-retirement and retirement stages of the life cycle, particularly in the 45 to 64 age groups, reinforcing the perception of the Region being an attractive location in which to retire. By comparison, the largest net outflows are seen in the 19 to 26 population which is largely due to post-secondary schooling and labour force migration , % Trend Based Population Projection, Okanagan Similkameen RD, 2004 to , % 92, % Annual Growth Rate 99, % 105, % 2.3 Trend based population projections for the Okanagan Similkameen Region Combining the trends in natality, mortality and migration with the District s current population shows the Okanagan-Similkameen Regional District growing from a base of 81,278 residents in 2004 to 105,328 by 2031 (Figure 11) Page 9

13 Adding 24,050 more residents would result in a 30 percent increase in the Regional District s population, and would involve a gradual increase in the annual growth rate from under one percent in the near term to approximately 1.1 per cent per year by 2010, after which it will slowly decline in to the 0.8 percent range by the end of the projection period. The projection of an increased rate of population growth in the Region in the coming years has its foundations in essentially one factor, an increase in the number of people migrating to the Region, as increase in the annual number of deaths will reduce the contribution that natural increase (in this instance decrease) has on the population. Over the long term while the annual number of deaths in the Okanagan Similkameen Figure 12 Region are expected to rise to 1,717 by 2031 from its current level of 1,047 (an increase of 39 percent), the annual Components of Population Change, OSRD, 2004 to ,717 number of births is expected to remain relatively constant Deaths 1,556 in the range of 600 over the 1,409 projection period (Figure 12). 1, This would result 893 more 1,551 deaths than births by 2031, a 1,291 Net Migration gap which would have grown 1,073 by 458, or 105 percent, over its 2004 level Births Natural Increase Given this pattern, the main driver to growth in the Region s population will be a positive flow of migrants. Net migration to the Okanagan Similkameen Regional District is projected to increase from just under 1,000 currently to 1,551 people by It should be noted that while this level of migration is significantly below the 2,520 annual migrants seen during the 1989 to 1993 peak, it more closely resembles the average level of migration experienced over the 1991 to 2001 decade, a period characterized by both rapid (the early 1990 s) and more moderate levels (early 2000)of migration. These factors will combine to increase the Region s annual population growth from its current annual rate of 0.7 percent to approximately 1.1 percent by 2010, before falling back to the 0.8 percent range by the end of the projection period. Although these growth rates are relatively low in contrast to those historically, they are consistent with longer term growth projections provincially and nationally Page 10

14 Figure 13 55,333 56, % 0.7% 63, % URBAN FUTURES Trend Based Population Projection, Penticton and Region, 2004 to 2031 Annual Growth Rate 72, % With a current population of 55,333 the Penticton subarea is expected to grow by 17,555 people, reaching 72,888 by 2031 (a total increase of 32 percent). The annual rate of population growth is expected to increase fairly quickly in the short-term, from a 2004 rate in the range of 0.7 percent to 0.9 percent by 2007 and further to 1.1 percent by From this point the growth rate is expected to decline gradually to approximately 0.9 percent by Figure 14 16, % The communities centred on Osoyoos will experience a slightly different pattern of change in the coming years relative to that which is expected to occur in Penticton and indeed in the rest of the Okanagan Similkameen Region (Figure 14). With a current estimated population of 16,260 the Osoyoos sub-area is projected to see a fairly rapid increase in its rate of growth when compared to rates that have characterized the area in Trend Based Population Projection, Osoyoos and Region, 2004 to , % 18,243 19, % 0.8% Annual Growth Rate 20, % the recent past. By 2010, growth rates are expected to increase to 1.2 percent. From this peak the rate of growth will slowly dip, settling back to the 0.8 percent range over the longer term of the projection. By the end of the period the Osoyoos region s population is expected to have grown by 26 percent, having added 4,223 new residents, to reach a total projected 2031 population of 20, Throughout the remainder of the Okanagan Similkameen Regional District (the subarea termed Other OSRD ), Page 11

15 Figure 15 9, % 10, % 10, % 10, % URBAN FUTURES Trend Based Population Projection, Other OSRD, 2004 to 2031 Annual Growth Rate 11, % 11, % the population is projected to increase from its 2004 base of 9,684 to 11,957 in 2031, an increase of 2,273 individuals or 23 percent (Figure 15). Over the next three decades this sub-area s rate of population growth is projected to rise to 0.9 percent by 2009 from the 0.6 percent seen in Growth rates are expected to reach one percent by 2011, and then decline steadily to the 0.5 percent range by Having explored the growth prospects for the Region and its component sub-areas, and acknowledging the fact that growth in the region s population is important from a planning perspective, it also needs to be recognized that the aging of a community s population will also bring about significant change, Figure % Population Change, OSRD, 2004 to , % 1,637 2,097 24% 20% 948 8% 3,887 36% 7,510 75% 4,909 63% 110% 2,752 30% Total opportunities, challenges. and The process of change will be broadly characterized by two factors. First, the aging of the Okanagan Similkameen s current residents will ensure that its 55 and older population will increase significantly in the future, both absolutely and relative to the under 55 population (Figures 16 & 17). More specifically, the 65 to 74 age group will see the largest absolute growth as it is expected that this age group will grow by 7,510 people (75 percent growth) in the coming three decades. Page 12

16 Figure 17 Population Age Profile, Okanagan Similkameen RD, 2004 and Female Male 0 1, ,000 The second characteristic of population change will be a moderate contraction of the 15 to 24 age group, which is projected to decline by 482 people (a 5 percent decline). As has been seen historically in the OSRD, this will largely be the result of individuals in this age group attending post-secondary learning institutions or moving to seek out employment opportunities. Moreover, declining natality rates will lead to relatively slow growth in the under 14 population, which is projected to grow by 7 percent between 2004 and An increase in the Region s 55 plus population that is greater than that of the working aged population will have profound implications on a wide range of community planning issues ranging from the number and structure type of housing units demanded (this will be discussed in Section III) to day-to-day operations of transit services, curbside garbage pickup, recreational centres and queues at the local pharmacy. A fundamental challenge for the Okanagan Similkameen Region, and for communities within its boundaries, will be responding to the breadth of issues related to an aging population, while recognizing the vital need to attract and retain younger generations in order to allow the Region to effectively prosper, grow and change. Population change in Penticton is expected to mirror that of the Region as a whole. The most dramatic compositional change in this sub-area s population will be seen in the -55 plus age groups, all of which will grow far more rapidly than the population as a whole. Between 2004 and 2031 the 65 to 74 age group is projected to see the greatest relative and absolute increases, growing by 99 percent or 6,125 residents (Figure 18). Each of the 55 to 64 and 75 plus age groups would also grow more rapidly than the total population as the bulk of the boom generation eases in to the retirement stage of the lifecycle. Over the next three decades, the 55 to 64 group would grow by 3,382 people, or 49 percent; the 75 to 84 age cohort would add 3,420 people (65 percent growth); and the 85 plus population would increase by 1,541 people (87 percent growth). Page 13

17 Figure % Figure 19 URBAN FUTURES Population Change, Penticton, 2004 to ,541 Contrasting the growth of these age groups will be the under 55 age groups which, in relative terms, will all grow more slowly than the population as a whole. Growth rates will range from the seven percent contraction projected for the 15 to 24 age group (452 fewer people) and 19 percent for the 25 to 34 age cohort (914 more people). 755 With respect to the Osoyoos 19% 18% sub-area, the largest relative 9% growth over the projection period will occur in the over 85 age group. In part this growth will be driven by the small stock of individuals in this age cohort in 2004 (325 people) and the aging of the leading edge of the Boom generation into these age groups. The 129 percent increase means that there will be 675 more people aged 85 and over by 2031 than there are today % 914 1,341 3,382 49% 6,125 99% 3,420 65% 87% 17,555 In absolute terms, the 55 to 64, 65 to 74, and 75 to 84 age groups will each experience significant growth, adding 566 (24 percent), 865 (35 4,223 percent), and 731 individuals % (41 percent growth), respectively over the next three decades. 32% Total 174 8% Population Change, Osoyoos, 2004 to % % 28% 24% ` 14% 35% % % Total The number of individuals under the age of 15 will experience modest growth, adding 174 people, or eight percent, while there will be essentially no change in the 15 to 24 population. Overall the sub-area is projected to add 4,223 people by 2031, growing by 26 percent and accounting for six percent of total Regional population growth. Notably, 54 percent Page 14

18 Figure % URBAN FUTURES Population Change, Other OSRD, 2004 to ,272-2% % % -8% % % % 286% 536 small base populations found in these age groups today. of the growth in the Osoyoos area over the following three decades will be due to growth in the over 65 population, a fact that will have wide ranging implications for the subregion. The remainder of the OSRD is projected to see the most varied pattern of population change in the District (Figure 20). While these changes will largely be driven by the aging of the existing residents over the coming three decades (as migration to the rest of the Regional District is expected to be low), the varied rates of growth in part result from the From the pattern of change illustrated in Figure 20, it can be clearly seen that there will be a significant aging throughout the communities not centred on Osoyoos and Penticton. More specifically, the 15 to 24 population is expected to shrink marginally - by 20 people (a decline of 2 percent) - while the 45 to 54 year old age cohort will shrink by 115 individuals (an 8 percent drop), and the 55 to 64 group by 61 (a 4 percent decline). Offsetting these declines are modest increases in the number of 25 to 34 and 35 to 44 year old residents of 334 (48 percent) and 230 (19 percent), respectively, and significant growth in the 65 to 74, 75 to 84, and 85 plus age groups: each age group will add 520 (37 percent), 759 (100 percent), and 526 (286 percent increase) people, respectively. 23% Total Page 15

19 III. HOUSING IN THE OKANAGAN SIMILKAMEEN REGION 3.1 The Lifecycle Pattern of Private Housing by Structure Type, the Penticton Census Agglomeration and the Okanagan Similkameen Region The basic concept of housing is that everyone (except the homeless) lives in a dwelling, which is defined as a space that encloses their living quarters (essentially the space in which a person most regularly eats, sleeps and uses a bathroom). A private dwelling is defined by Statistics Canada as a separate set of living quarters with a private entrance either from outside or from a common hall, lobby, vestibule or stairway inside the building. The entrance to the dwelling must be one that can be used without passing through the living quarters of someone else. A collective or institutional dwelling, in contrast, involves the sharing of some or all of the components of living quarters. In the Census questionnaire used to gather data on housing each private household (a group of people living together in a private dwelling unit), are asked to provide information on the age and other attributes of the person who is primarily responsible for financial support of the household. This person is defined as being the primary household maintainer for that household. The percentage of people in the community who define themselves as household maintainers is referred to as the crude household maintainer rate. There are a number of elaborations that can be made to the crude household maintainer rate. For example, as children are not household maintainers but are in the total population, the crude household maintainer rate under-emphasizes the propensity to be household maintainers, as it calculates a rate on a base of a population that is ineligible to be included in the numerator. The first refinement is to calculate the percentage of people in an age group who are household maintainers in order to define an age specific household maintainer rate. Doing so shows that there is a very strong correlation between a person s age and their propensity to be a household maintainer, a relationship referred to as the lifecycle of housing occupancy. A second elaboration to maintainer rates is to consider them by structure type of dwelling. Private dwellings are aggregated into ground oriented dwellings (single dwelling units in single structures, side-by-side duplex houses, row houses, houses with suites, single dwellings attached to non-residential structures, mobile homes and other moveable dwellings) and apartments (dwellings in other multi-unit apartment buildings above and below five storeys) 1. Adding the structure type dimension to housing gives rise to the age and structure type specific private household maintainer rates used in this report. 1 Note that units defined as apartments and suites in detached houses are included here in the attached ground oriented category based on their overall structural character (i.e., that they are in houses); they are sometimes included in the apartment category based on their specific character (as suites in multi-dwelling structures). Page 16

20 There is a distinct age pattern to maintainer rates in the Okanagan Similkameen - a pattern that is similar to that which prevails in urban communities throughout North America - with approximately half of the people aged 35 to 79 maintaining ground oriented households in 2001 (Figure 21). Generally-speaking, this pattern coincides with Figure 21 the childbearing and family formation stage of the lifecycle where extra bedrooms and space for the Hulk Hogan Big Wheel and Mr. Turtle Household Maintainer Rates, Okanagan Similkameen RD, 2001 Pools become increasingly important. Apartment 6% 10% 8% 41% 34% 17% 1% 1% % 5% 5% 7% 6% 7% 9% 10% 18% 24% 48% 53% 50% 49% 47% 50% 50% 52% 52% 48% Ground Oriented % 39% 85+ While the proportion of people maintaining a ground oriented household generally increases over the lifecycle, a slight drop in rates are seen in the 75 plus age groups (where maintainer rates fall to 39 percent for the 85 plus age group). This is explained by people in these age groups moving towards apartments, with their family or into collective type dwellings (such as seniors homes and care residences). Given space requirements individuals in the family rearing stage of their lifecycles (roughly between the ages of 30 and 59) had a relatively low propensity to maintain apartments in the Region. By contrast younger adults, as they complete their studies, enter the workforce, and begin to move out of the familial household, naturally gravitate towards smaller, more affordable, dwellings such as apartments. As a result, apartment maintainer rates peak at 10 percent for those people aged 25 to 29. While interesting in itself, the pattern of household maintainer rates increasing with age has significant implications on housing demand. Consider the example of 1,000 people in the 15 to 19 age group: in 2001 there would be only 20 households maintained by people in this age group. Five years later, when these 1,000 people age into the 20 to 24 age group, they would maintain 250 households and, in another five years, when they age into the 25 to 29 age group, they would maintain a total of 440 units. Therefore, over a ten-year period, the occupancy demand from the same 1,000 residents would increase 22 times (from 20 units to 440 units). This demographically driven phenomenon characterized boom housing markets throughout Canada in the late 1960s and 1970s as the post World War Two baby boom generation began to move out of their parents homes and into the housing markets. Page 17

21 Figure In order to project future housing occupancy demand in both the Okanagan Similkameen Region and Penticton sub-region, Regional age specific maintainer rates are used in conjunction with the age specific population projections for each sub-area outlined in the previous section. This produces estimates of the number of occupied households by age and major structure type. In this, and other demographically-based projections, maintainer rates are generally held constant at the most recent observed levels to focus the analysis on the impact that demographic change will have on housing occupancy demand. The result of combining age specific population projections and the private household maintainer rates allows for the projection of addition annual occupancy demand for housing in terms of number of dwelling units required to house the resident population in the Okanagan Similkameen Regional District in the coming decades. Generally-speaking, the projected trend in housing occupancy demand will closely follow the pattern shown by annual growth in the Region s population. Over the 204 to 2031 period additional occupancy demand will peak in 2010, and then taper towards the end of the period (Figure 22). Additional Occupancy Demand, Okanagan Similkameen RD, 2004 to 2031, Trend Projection Ground Oriented Apartment Although the pattern of additional occupancy demand for ground oriented structures is expected to follow the same slowing pattern of population change, the annual demand for apartments will remain relatively constant over the next three decades. Overall, it is projected that by 2031 there will be a net addition of 11,435 units to the current (2004) stock of ground oriented dwelling units, and an increase of 3,129 in the number of apartments in the Region. When considered together the projected growth in housing demand is anticipated to be greater than that of total population. Figure 23 shows that, while the number of permanent residents living in the Region is expected to climb by 30 percent over the next thirty years, housing demand is projected to rise by 38 percent: the reason for this lies in the aging of the Region s residents, who s age profile will shift into the older age groups, where both the propensity to maintain ground oriented and apartment dwellings is the greatest. Page 18

22 Figure Growth in Population and Housing, Okanagan Similkameen RD, 2004 to 2031, Trend Projection 1.50 Apartment Housing Ground Oriented Population While the dominant household type in the future will remain the traditional ground oriented structure types, the demand for apartments will increase more rapidly than either ground oriented dwellings or total population. Accompanying the 30 percent increase in population and 38 percent growth in demand for ground oriented units would be a 50 percent increase in demand for apartment units. 1 Figure Apartment Additional Occupancy Demand, Penticton CA, 2004 to 2031, Trend Projection Ground Oriented Projected Occupancy Demand in the Penticton CA, 2004 to 2031 Similar to the pattern seen at the regional level, annual occupancy demand in Penticton is projected continue to grow to 2021 before dropping back to current levels by Over this period, demand for ground oriented structures will see the greatest increase, rising from an additional 210 units being demanded in 2004, to 351 units in 2017, and 344 in 2021 (Figure 24). With respect to apartment units, annual demand will also rise (albeit more slowly) from 50 to 60 additional units in the short term to 85 by 2022, before falling to 53 by Page 19

23 Figure 25 On a percentage basis, these absolute numbers translate into a projection of total housing growth in the order of 39 percent over the next three decades. This increase will be composed of a 41 percent growth in the total number of apartment dwelling units and a 39 percent growth in the number of ground oriented units Growth in Population and Housing, Penticton CA, 2004 to 2031, Trend Projection Apartment Housing Ground Oriented 1.32 Population While housing in this subarea is expected to see fairly dramatic increases over the coming years, it compares to a population that is only expected to grow by 30 percent, again driven by the process of demographic change outlined for Penticton the rest of the Regional District It should be noted that the housing projections for the OSRD and Penticton subarea rest on two assumptions. The first is that age specific maintainer rates will remain relatively constant at their 2001 levels over the coming three decades. While rates have certainly changed over the past three decades, future shifts are likely to be modest, a result of marginal shifts between detailed structure types rather than large changes in overall rates. The second assumption is that the population projection reasonably represents the nature of future population growth and change in the region. Furthermore, while demographics and lifecycle propensities will determine how much housing is required for the Okanagan Similkameen Region in the future, land use and transportation planning will direct where new housing is located within the Region and the specific form that it takes. Page 20

24 IV. THE ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS OF CHANGE With respect to projecting future changes in the economic structure (that is, the industrial and occupational composition) that characterizes the Region, it necessary to not only examine the historical makeup of the Region s economy, but also to consider changes in its labour force in terms of its overall growth as well as its corresponding age specific growth. Combining these future dimensions of economic activity with what is known about the current and past structure of the Regional economy provides estimates of not only what the Region s economy could look like over the next three decades, but also how this might affect the demand for workers, a crucial element in the myriad of factors that affect the well-being of individual communities and Regions alike. 4.1 Economic Structure of the Okanagan Similkameen RD, 2001 Figure 26 Industry Structure Canada s 2001 Census indicated that the Okanagan Similkameen Regional District had a total resident labour force of 34,145 people (employed, unemployed, working within, and working outside the Regional District). In terms of the Region s employment structure (which identifies the industries, or sectors, in which the Region s resident labour force is employed while ignoring the occupations that characterize the workers within the industry), the largest industry sector was retail trade, employing 12.9 percent of the Region s labour force (Figure 26). Compared to the provincial average (where 11.6 percent of the labour force is employed in this sector), retail trade was relatively overrepresented in the Regional District s labour force by 1.3 percentage points. Other services (except public administration) Accommodation & food services Arts, entertainment & recreation Administrative & support services Management of companies & enterprises Professional, scientific & technical services Information & cultural industries Employment Structure, OSRD Residents 2001 Public administration Health care & social assistance Educational services Real estate & rental & leasing Finance & insurance Transportation & warehousing Retail trade Wholesale trade Manufacturing Construction Utilities Mining & oil & gas extraction Agriculture, forestry, fishing & hunting 5.6% 5.6% 4.9% 5.3% 8.3% OSRD 9.6% 2.3% 1.8% -0.5% 9.9% 11.7% 6.9% -1.4% 5.5% 4.0% -0.3% 3.7% 0.1% BC 0.0% 6.8% -3.3% 3.5% 2.1% 2.1% OSRD < BC 4.0% -1.2% 2.8% 3.1% 1.5% -1.6% 5.7% 3.4% -2.3% 11.6% 4.1% 12.9% -1.5% 2.6% 9.6% -0.4% 9.2% 5.9% 6.9% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 3.9% 10.6% 0.0% 0.4% 1.3% 1.8% -0.1% 0.0% OSRD > BC 1.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% Page 21

25 The second greatest concentration was in the health care and social assistance sectors, with 11.7 percent of the region s labour force (compared to the provincial average of 9.9 percent). The third largest sector was in agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, which accounted for 10.6 percent of the District s labour force. Relative to the province as a whole, this sector is most overrepresented in the OSRD, with a 6.7 percentage point gap over the provincial average 3.9 percent of the labour force working in this sector. By comparison, the most underrepresented sectors in the region s labour force were in the professional, scientific, and technical service industries (which were underrepresented by 3.3 percentage points) and in transportation and warehousing; information and cultural industries; and finance and insurance (which were 2.3, 1.6, and 1.2 percentage points below the provincial average, respectively). Based on this profile of industry specific employment, when compared to the province as a whole, the OSRD is more reliant on its service and primary industry sectors than on the technical and business industries. Figure 27 Occupational Structure Another method of analyzing the composition of the OSRD s economic makeup is by looking at its occupational structure (Figure 27), which identifies the output produced by the employed labour force in the Region. Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing & utilities Occupations unique to primary industry Trades, transport & equipment operators & related Sales & service Art, culture, recreation & sport Social science, education, government service & religion Health occupations Natural & applied sciences & related Business, finance & administration Management 5% 5% 4% 2% 5% 3% 8% 7% 6% 11% 3% 6% 14% 18% 11% 10% 16% BC 26% OSRD 26% 14% Occupational Structure, OSRD, % -1.2% OSRD < BC -2.8% -3.5% -1.0% The largest share of the Regional District s labour force was found in sales and service occupations in 2001, representing 26 percent of all occupations in the region, followed by occupations in trades and transport (. Occupations that were overrepresented in the Region were those relating to primary industry activities, with 11 percent of all occupations comprising this category, compared to 4 percent provincially (a seven percentage point gap). 16 percent) The most underrepresented occupations when compared to the provincial average included business, finance and administration (14 percent compared to 18 percent for the province); natural and applied sciences (3 percent to 6 percent), social science, education, government service, and 0.3% 7.0% 1.2% 0.9% 0.8% OSRD > BC Page 22

26 Figure 28 URBAN FUTURES religion (7 compared to 8 percent); and art, culture, recreation, and sport (2 percent versus 3 percent provincially). Between 1996 and 2001, the Region experienced a great deal of change in its occupational structure, a pattern of change that differed considerably from that seen in the province as a whole (Figure 28). Specifically, while the prevalence of art, culture, recreation, and sport related occupations rose by 23 percent in BC over the five-year inter-censal period, they -5% actually fell in the -21% -16% utilities Okanagan Similkameen -6% 5% Region by 12 percent. -1% 1% Additionally, growth at the 6% 6% provincial level in each of -3% the social science, religion, Sales & service -8% -5% education, government Art, culture, recreation & sport 23% -12% -35% service, and science occupations outpaced that 27% -18% which occurred in the 9% OSRD. Occupations unique to processing, manufacturing & Occupations unique to primary industry Trades, transport & equipment operators & related Social science, education, government service & religion Change in Occupational Structure, OSRD, 1996 to 2001 Health occupations Natural & applied sciences & related Business, finance & administration Management All occupations 0% 0% 1% 6% 18% 11% BC 20% 13% 17% 36% By 2001 there were more occupations in the trades, transport and equipment operators and related fields, both on an absolute basis (a six percent increase over 1996) and relative to the province (which saw the prevalence of these types of occupations grow by only one percent). Overall, due to slower economic growth provincially and regionally, the absolute number of persons in all occupations in the OSRD did not change perceptibly, while the province saw growth of approximately six percent. -7% -18% -7% -6% 0% 4.2 Place of Residence and of Work for Employed Labour Force, OSRD, 2001 Referring to the Origin/Destination Table (Table 1), it can be seen that in 2001 there were 30,570 people living in the Okanagan Similkameen Regional District who were employed 2. Of these residents, 20,600 (67 percent) had a regular (usual) place of work outside of their home within the Regional District and hence traveled regularly from their place of residence in the Region to their place of work somewhere else within the Region. 2 In the Origin/Destination Table (Table 1), the number of employed persons in 2001 in the OSRD (30,570) differs from the Census figure that quoted earlier in the report, in Section 4.1 (34,145). The cause of this is disparity lies in what is called data suppression (with respect to the figure in Table 1), whereby data for smaller communities within the Region have been suppressed (i.e., reduced to zero) at the source. Page 23

27 A further 7,980 (26 percent) of those employed either worked at or from home (such as farmers, contractors, etc.) or did not have a usual place of work (such as bus and taxi drivers, etc.). Additionally another 1,990 (seven percent) had a usual place of work outside of the Regional District or one that was not identified in Census coding. Usual Place of Work Outside of the Home Table 1 Live In - From Work In - To Oliver Osoyoos Penticton Area Keremeos Area Princeton Area Work In OSRD Work Outside OSRD Usual Place of Work Not Identified Total usual workplace Inter-regional Outcommuters Share Work at/from home, No fixed workplace Total workers Work In OSRD Work Outside OSRD Usual Place of Work Not Identified Work at/from home, No fixed workplace Oliver Osoyoos 3, , , % 1,900 5,710 60% 2% 5% 33% Penticton Area ,860 15, , % 4,780 21,365 72% 3% 3% 22% Keremeos Area % 845 1,630 40% 1% 7% 52% Princeton Area 30 1,215 1, , % 455 1,865 67% 1% 8% 24% Total Live in OSRD 3,530 15, ,215 20, ,265 22, % 7,980 30,570 67% 2% 4% 26% Non-residents Workplace in OSRD 3,530 15, ,215 21,095 Non-residents' share 3.1% 2.3% In addition to the 20,600 people who lived in the OSRD and had a usual place of work outside of the home and within the Region, there were 495 people who lived outside of the Region but had a usual place of work within it. This resulted in a total of 21,095 people working in the Regional District at usual places of work. Seventy-five percent (15,820) of these places of work were in the Penticton area, with two percent of these jobs held by residents of the Osoyoos sub-area, 94 percent by residents of the Penticton sub-area, one percent by residents of other parts of the region (the Other OSRD), and three percent by residents of other communities outside of the Okanagan Similkameen Regional District. The data highlight the low level of intra-regional movement of workers as well as to and from the OSRD and neighbouring regions. Generally-speaking, if an individual lives within the OSRD then he or she also works within the OSRD. For example, of the 30,570 people who lived in the Region in 2001 and held jobs (inside or outside of the Region), only two percent of these individuals had a usual place of work that was outside of the Region. Similarly, there were only 495 non-residents working in the Region in 2001, making up a rather small 2.3 percent of the Region s workforce. Furthermore, there is also very little labour movement at this sub-regional level. For example, of the 15,280 workers that live in the Penticton sub-area, 14,860 of them (over 97 percent) also work there. This same theme appears in the data for the remaining sub-areas as well. Page 24

28 4.3 Labour Supply and Demand in the Okanagan Similkameen RD and Subareas, Historical and Projected Figure 29 The current and future size of a community s labour force (essentially the number of persons aged 15 and older who are employed or are actively seeking employment) is an important determinant of its economic capacity and future prospects for growth. By considering the age specific pattern of labour force participation (derived from 2001 Census) and the nature of population change (as outlined in previous sections), it is possible to estimate the degree to which demography will change the size and composition of the labour force within the region over the next 30 years ii. Participation Rates & Projected Labour Supply, Okanagan Similkameen RD, 2004 & 2031 Participation Rate 83% 5,685 62% 5,383 5, ,931 9,080 87% 10,917 10,108 83% 10,916 Total Labour Force ,287 49% 7,224 1,431 7% 2,490 Participation rates in the Okanagan Similkameen Region in 2001 displayed a typical lifecycle pattern with individuals between 35 and 44 having the highest propensity to be in the workforce (with 87 percent of people active), while 45 to 54 year olds were only slightly less likely to be in the workforce, with 83 percent of these individuals participating in the workforce. As would be expected, the age group with the lowest participation rate was the 65 plus age cohort, as the vast majority (93 percent) of individuals in this age group were not actively participating in the labour force. By combining this age specific pattern of participation with the population projections for the Region, shows the impacts of an aging population on the region s labour force. While the labour force is expected to grow over the next three decades (by 5,887 people, or 16 percent) it will be comprised of a significant change in composition (Figure 29). For example, the greatest absolute and relative growth would be seen in participants between the ages of 55 and 64 (projected to increase by 1,937 people) by Over the next three decades the labour force between the ages of 55 and 64 is expected to grow by 37 percent (versus 18 percent growth in the total labour force) and comprise one third of total growth in the OSRD s active labour force. 53% plus Total 37,175 43,862 Page 25

29 Figure 30 URBAN FUTURES Participation Rates & Projected Labour Supply, Penticton, 2004 & 2031 Participation Rate 63% 4,113 3,828 4,023 83% ,784 6,341 87% 7,504 7,137 84% 7,775 3,466 50% 5, % 1,604 Given its age specific pattern of participation and projected population change, Penticton s labour force is projected to grow by 18 percent, or 4,713 participants, by While the 35 to 54 year olds will remain the largest source of labour over the projection period, (the number of workers in these age groups is expected to increase by a total of 1,801 people), it will again be the 55 to 64 age group that would see the greatest absolute and relative increases in activity. Over the projection period the labour force between the ages of 55 and 64 is expected to grow by 49 percent compared to total labour force growth of 18 percent. Over this period the 55 to 64 age groups would comprise 36 percent of total growth in Penticton s labour force. 55% plus Total 25,952 30,665 Figure 31 While growth will be seen in the 25 to 34 and 55 plus age groups as well, there will be a decline in the number of 15 to 24 year old workers, dropping from the current (2004) 4,113 to 3,828 by 2031 (a decline of 7 percent). Participation Rates & Projected Labour Supply, Osoyoos, 2004 & 2031 Participation Rate 1,016 62% 1,010 1,011 83% ,334 1,690 91% 2,167 1,816 84% 2, ,101 46% 1, % 509 6,981 8,457 50% With a 21 percent projected increase in total labour supply, the Osoyoos sub-area will experience the greatest relative gains in the Region between 2004 and 2031 (albeit a relatively small absolute increase). Osoyoos will see the number of 15 to 24 year old labour force participants shrink the least, in absolute (6 individuals) and relative (0.6 percent) terms. That said, this age group will comprise a smaller share of the total plus Total Page 26