Long Range Growth Scenarios Summary for Workshop 1: Understanding Metro Vancouver s Growth Projections

Transcription

1 LongRangeGrowthScenarios SummaryforWorkshop1:UnderstandingMetroVancouver s GrowthProjections WorkshopSummary April5,2018,9:00a.m. 12:00p.m. MetroVancouverBoardroom,MetrotowerIII 4730Kingsway,Burnaby,BritishColumbia

2 TableofContents 1. IntroductionsandAgendaReview Presentation:LongRangeScenarios ProjectOverview Presentations: OverviewofRegionalGrowthProjections PopulationProjectionMethodsandAssumptions HousingDemandandLandUseProjectionMethodsandAssumptions EmploymentProjectionMethodsandAssumptions ClosingRemarks...6 AppendixA:Agenda...8 AppendixB:ListofWorkshopAttendees...9 AppendixC:Handouts...10

3 LongRangeGrowthScenarios Workshop1:UnderstandingMetroVancouver sgrowthprojections This document summarizes the Long Range Growth Scenarios Workshop entitled Workshop 1: UnderstandingMetroVancouver sgrowthprojections.themeetingwasheldapril5, INTRODUCTIONSANDAGENDAREVIEW James Stiver, Division Manager, Growth Management and Transportation, welcomed participantstotheworkshopatapproximately9:00a.m. 2. PRESENTATION:LONGRANGESCENARIOS PROJECTOVERVIEW SeanTynan,RegionalPlanner,MetroVancouver,presentedonthefourphasesoftheproject: Phase1:SettingtheBaseline Phase2:DriversandDisruptors(Fallof2018) Phase3:ScenarioAnalysis(2019),and Phase4:CommunicateResults(2020). Mr. Tynan indicated that the project will support decision making for Metro Vancouver s utilities in making capital investment decisions, the development of the next Regional TransportationStrategy,andthenextiterationoftheregionalgrowthstrategy(RGS). 3. PRESENTATIONS: 3.1 OverviewofRegionalGrowthProjections TerryHoff,SeniorRegionalPlanner,presentedonMetroVancouver sgrowthprojections.mr. Hoffnotedthat: TheprojectionswerecriticalinthedevelopmentofMetro2040,MetroVancouver srgs Municipal collaboration and input on land use and development pressures was instrumentalinthedevelopmentoftheprojections Overtime,theprojectionshavebeenextendedoveralongertimeframe(outtotheyear 2121)tosupportrequestsfromMetroVancouver swaterandliquidwasteutilities The2016Censusprovidesanopportunitytoupdateandrefinetheprojections 3.2 PopulationProjectionMethodsandAssumptions Mr.Hoffofferedadditionalcommentsregarding: MetroVancouver shistoricpopulationgrowth. Theimportanceofmigration(includinginter andintra provincialmigration)inpopulation growth. Thatnaturalincreasewillbecomenegativeovertimeandthat,intheabsenceof migration,projectionsindicatethatthepopulationoftheregionwoulddecrease. SummaryoftheMetroVancouverLongRangeGrowthScenarios Workshop1:UnderstandingMetroVancouver sgrowthprojections April5,2018 Page1of10

4 Inresponsetotheinformationpresentedonpopulationprojections,thefollowing questions/comments(q/c)andresponses(r)wereprovided: Q/C: Iunderstandthattheinformationpresentedwasbasedontrendanalysis.Howfar backdidyouranalysisgo?5years? R: Wetriedtolookatdataoverthepast10to20years.Ininterpretingthetrends,we also look at what might be influencing those trends and consider whether that influenceislikelytocontinue. Q/C: WillyoubeabletoshareyourPowerPointpresentationwithworkshopparticipants? R: The presentation is not intended for release as it includes preliminary/draft numbers. By the Fall, we will have updated projections that we can share. The summary document that we have prepared and provided to you explains the processandassumptionsthathavegoneintotheprojections. Q/C: Intermsofimmigration,haveyouconsideredthecorrelationofpopulationgrowth withhousingavailability,housingcost,andjobavailabilityandwages? R: Issuesrelatedtohousingwillbeaddressedduringthenextportionoftheworkshop. Itisassumedthattheregionwillcontinuetobeanexpensiveplacetolive.Wedid not directly relate housing prices and population growth but the impact of affordabilityisembeddedindirectlytherecentpaceofgrowth. In our current projections, we assumed that affordability will remain a permanent factorintheregion,whichwillcontinuetoaffectpopulationgrowthoverthelong term. Q/C: The City of Richmond engaged a consultant in 2012 to consider population projections during the official community plan (OCP) review. The data used was based on the 2006 Census. At that time the City recognized 218,000 citizens and now understands there may be fewer than 200,000 citizens. Do you have any commentonthisdiscrepancy? R: The Census numbers in the City of Richmond were lower than expected. The numbers provided by Urban Futures were relatively consistent with Statistics Canada sdata. Q/C: Itwouldbehelpfultoknowwhethertheanticipatedgrowthinsomeareasisdueto transportationinfluencessuchasthecanadalineortheevergreenline. SummaryoftheMetroVancouverLongRangeGrowthScenarios Workshop1:UnderstandingMetroVancouver sgrowthprojections April5,2018 Page2of10

5 R: Q/C: R: R: Q/C: R: Q/C: Development is occurring in the City of Richmond and we can see patterns in relationtothecanadaline. Did any other municipalities experience population shortfalls relative to what was anticipated? The City of Coquitlam s projections were developed at the peak of the market, in anticipationoftheextensiontotherapidtransitline.in2008,whentheevergreen Line was expected, five or six neighbourhood centres experienced significant development interest. The market changed and the ability to meet projections droppedsignificantlyalmostovernight. In some instances, we see population estimates that appear high. In these cases, populationmaybedrawnfromoneareatoanotherratherthanattractingnewfrom outsidetheregion. Some health authorities are undertaking vulnerability mapping and seeing that as thevalueinanareagrows,peoplegetpushedout.thisisespeciallythecasearound rapidtransitinvestment. Is Vancouver Coastal Health connected with BC Statistics in terms of hospital and serviceplanning? Forplanningnewfacilitiesandhospitalbuildsbythehealthauthorities,theProvince mandatesthatbcstatisticsbeusedtomaintainprovincialconsistency. We (health authorities) are looking at resilience (in terms of emergency planning) andvulnerabilityplanning.wearelookingatdataonalllevelsofhealth,including mentalhealth,economichealth,etc.foramoreholisticapproach. R: We are interested in sharing data (and its further integration) related to health authorities,etc.,andhopetoworkwithmetrovancouveronthis. Welookforwardtocoordinatingasmuchaspossiblewiththehealthauthorities. 3.3 HousingDemandandLandUseProjectionMethodsandAssumptions Mr.Hoffpresentedon HousingandLandUse/Capacity andnoted: Householdmaintainerrates(bystructuretypeandagecohort)arethecriticalvariablein translatingpopulationprojectionsintohousingdemandprojections. Theregionstillhassignificantundevelopedurbanlandsthatcouldlastuntilaround2030. After 2030, we will see an increase in densification/intensification to accommodate growthpressures. SummaryoftheMetroVancouverLongRangeGrowthScenarios Workshop1:UnderstandingMetroVancouver sgrowthprojections April5,2018 Page3of10

6 In response to the information presented on housing projections, the following questions/comments(q/c)andresponses(r)wereprovided: Q/C: Isthereasimplegraphicorflowchartexplainingyourmodellingprocess? R: Q/C: R: Q/C: R: Q/C: R: Notatthistime.Wewillconsiderdevelopingonetosupportfuturediscussions. Ifgrowthiscomingfromimmigration,youmayfindthattheaveragehouseholdsize inapartmentscouldincreaseovertime. Wealreadyseethehouseholdsizeinapartmentsincreasing.Thistrendisembedded inthemodellingassumptionsandprojections. I am interested in occupancy trends, in particular vacant homes. Has a declining occupancyratethatreflectsthisbeenincorporatedinyourmodels? WhiletheCensusdatalooksat occupiedunits versus totalunits andthesemay be significant in some areas, the impact is limited. We don t anticipate that you wouldseeanimpactonlong rangeprojectionsfortheregion. I am curious about undeveloped land capacity. Were you expecting single family dwellings?howwillyouaddressthisinyour roadshow tomunicipalitiesduring thenextphasesofthisproject? Thetypeofdevelopmentanticipatedvariesbasedonthelocation.Weplantoget the municipal perspective on likely densities in these areas as we visit each of the municipalitiesoverthecomingmonths. 3.4 EmploymentProjectionMethodsandAssumptions Mr. Hoff presented and offered comments regarding employment projection methods and assumptions: As some types of employment are driven by population, those jobs are projected to increaseinproportiontopopulationgrowth. Othertypesofemploymentarebasedonspecializedlands(e.g.industrialoragricultural) theseemploymentprojectionsarebasedontheareaofthatlandthatfallswithineach municipality. It is challenging to determine how to best account for jobs with no fixed address identifiedthroughthecensus,whichareincreasing wewillworkwithmunicipalitiesto determinehowtoallocatethosejobsonamunicipalbasis. WearestillwaitingforsomeoftheemploymentdatatocomeinfromStatisticsCanadaso thatwecanupdateourprojections. Overall,asthepopulationages,weanticipatethatemploymentmaydecreaserelativeto anagingpopulation. SummaryoftheMetroVancouverLongRangeGrowthScenarios Workshop1:UnderstandingMetroVancouver sgrowthprojections April5,2018 Page4of10

7 In response to the information presented on employment projections, the following questions/comments(q/c)andresponses(r)wereprovided: Q/C: It would behelpful to see employment data by sector, mapped on the population centres. R: We have requested custom Census data to assist in mapping specific employment information,bygeography.thechallengewithcensusdataisthattheinformationis providedvoluntarily,whichcouldimpactaccuracy,particularlyinsmallerareas. Q/C: The presentation suggests an anticipated decline in jobs per labour force. What makesthisareality?whatdoesthergssayaboutjobsperlabourforce?istherea change in the nature of employment? Have the impacts of part time work been considered? R: TheRGSanticipatesaslightdecreasein jobstopopulation andreflectsanticipated impactsofanagingpopulationovertime.studieshavebeendoneonoveralltrends in jobs per sector, and the number of jobs per million gross domestic product. A lowerdemandforjobsisnotanticipated.weareplanningtolookatdisruptors,such as the impact of automation on the employment projections, as part of our next phaseofwork. Q/C: Thereisarangeforthepopulationprojections.Isthereawiderangeofemployment projections? R: Yes, there is a range. The information presented is based on assumptions, and is intended to prompt discussion and collaboration prior to the next round of discussions on the RGS. It will be beneficial to receive your feedback on our employmentassumptions. Q/C: Haveyoueverusedutilitydatatorefineortestpopulationestimates?Forexample, waterconsumptiondata? R: Everyyeartheregionfollowsaprocesstoforecastwatersalesfortheyearahead, andthenextfiveyears.theregion sestimatedmunicipalwaterdemandsfor2017 were quite accurate. A densification study will go into more detail on what was determined,intermsofwaterconsumptionanddensification. Consumption estimates are typically provided to municipalities for feedback. Information received back from municipalities helps inform the region s understanding. SummaryoftheMetroVancouverLongRangeGrowthScenarios Workshop1:UnderstandingMetroVancouver sgrowthprojections April5,2018 Page5of10

8 4. CLOSINGREMARKS Mr. Hoff extended thanks to workshop attendees for their feedback and interest. He confirmed that Metro Vancouver would contact municipalities and agencies to schedule meetingstodiscusstheirperspectives,andwhatneedstobeconsidered. James Stiver, Division Manager, Growth Management and Transportation, welcomed continued opportunities to engage in conversation, and extended appreciation for the feedbackprovided. Attendeeswereencouragedtosubmittheircompletedquestionnairespriortoleavingorvia .attendeeswerealsowelcomedstayaftertheworkshopconcluded,tocontinueengage inconversation. *** SummaryoftheMetroVancouverLongRangeGrowthScenarios Workshop1:UnderstandingMetroVancouver sgrowthprojections April5,2018 Page6of10

9 Appendix A Agenda LongRangeGrowthScenarios Workshop1:UnderstandingMetroVancouver sregionalgrowthprojections April5,2018 Start AgendaItem 8:15 9:00 LightBreakfastandRegistration JamesStiver DivisionManager,Growth IntroductionandAgendaReview *ParticipantswillmovetoBoardroom* ManagementandTransportation 9:10 Presentation:LongRangeScenarios ProjectOverview SeanTynan RegionalPlanner 9:20 TerryHoff SeniorRegionalPlanner 11:05 Presentation: OverviewofRegionalGrowth Projections PopulationProjectionMethods andassumptions Q&A CoffeeBreak#1 Presentation: HousingDemandandLandUse ProjectionMethodsand Assumptions EmploymentProjection MethodsandAssumptions Q&A CoffeeBreak#2 11:15 11:35 PlenaryDiscussion ClosingRemarks 11:40 PeertoPeerLearning 12:00 EventEnd 10:00 10:10 Speaker JamesStiver DivisionManager,Growth ManagementandTransportation Self directed Appendix B to the Summary of the Metro Vancouver Long Range Growth Scenarios Workshop 1: Understanding Metro Vancouver's Growth Projections April 5, 2018 / Page 8 of 10

10 APPENDIXB:LISTOFWORKSHOPATTENDEES TinaAtva,SeniorPlanningCoordinator,CityofRichmond SusanneBell,SeniorGISAdministrator,TransLink JohannesBendle,Planner,FraserValleyRegionalDistrict AleksandraBrzozowski,CommunityPlanner,CityofDelta OnkarButtar,Planner Analyst,CityofRichmond JessicaCarson,CommunityPlanner,MusqueamIndianBand ChristineCarter,Director,Planning,CityofMapleRidge JonathanChoi,SeniorEnvironmentalHealthOfficer,VancouverCoastalHealth RosalineChoy,Manager,Engineering,CityofWhiteRock AngeleClarke,Communityplanner,DistrictofNorthVancouver AliDarwiche,Planner,TransLink MaryDePaoli,Manager,Planning,CityofPortMoody CaitrionaFeeney,DevelopmentPlanner,VancouverPortAuthority NicoleFoth,Planner1,DistrictofNorthVancouver SeanGalloway,Manager,Planning,CityofNorthVancouver MelissaGeddert,PlanningTechnician,FraserValleyRegionalDistrict DianeHall,Planner,CityofMapleRidge MarkHalpin,TransportationPlanner,CityofPortMoody MirjanaHeath,PlanningDataAnalyst,CityofCoquitlam JonathanHelmus,AssistantDirector,Engineering Infrastructure&Development,CityofBurnaby AubreyJensen,Planner,TownshipofLangley StuartJones,SeniorPlanner,CityofSurrey MichaelLi,Director,DecisionSupport,VancouverCoastalHealth JenniferLittle,Manager,Planning,CityofPortCoquitlam TeriLubianetzky,CivilEngineer,CityofVancouver KarimaMulji,Manager,EngineeringDevelopmentServices,CityofVancouver RussellNelson,SeniorLongRangePlanner,TownshipofLangley ShereenPang,SeniorEngineer,AreaPlanner,BCHydro DanaParr,Planner,CityofPittMeadows BarclayPitkethly,Director,RegionalPrograms,FraserValleyRegionalDistrict KarenRendek,Planner3,DistrictofNorthVancouver MichelleRevesz,PolicyandPlanningEngineer,CityofVancouver MaxineSchleger,AdministrativeAssistant,CityofVancouver MarkSchwark,Manager,Sewers&DrainageDesignBranch,CityofVancouver SashaWiley Shaw,PolicyAnalyst,MusqueamIndianBand AlisonStewart,Manager,StrategicPlanning,FraserValleyRegionalDistrict JamesTaylor,CommunityPlanner,CityofCoquitlam ShazeenTejani,Planner1,DistrictofNorthVancouver TonyVi,SeniorPlanner,TransLink PetaWolmarans,Manager,VancouverAirportAuthority WinnieYip,CommunityPlanner,DistrictofWestVancouver AppendixBtotheSummaryoftheMetroVancouverLongRangeGrowthScenarios Workshop1:UnderstandingMetroVancouver sgrowthprojections April5,2018 Page9of10

11 MetroVancouverRepresentatives: BrentBurton,LeadSeniorEngineer BobDenboer,SeniorAnalyst AaronGrill,SeniorProjectEngineer TerryHoff,SeniorPlanner HeidiLam,SeniorAnalyst JohnMcMahon,LeadSeniorEngineer,LiquidWasteServices HeatherMcNell,Director,RegionalPlanningandElectoralAreaServices ErinRennie,SeniorRegionalPlanner TabanSowlati,SeniorProjectEngineer,LiquidWasteServices JamesStiver,DivisionManager,GrowthManagementandTransportation SeanTynan,RegionalPlanner AlsoPresent: CarriePeacock,RecordingSecretary,RaincoastVenturesLtd. AppendixBtotheSummaryoftheMetroVancouverLongRangeGrowthScenarios Workshop1:UnderstandingMetroVancouver sgrowthprojections April5,2018 Page10of10

12 APPENDIXC:HANDOUTS Thefollowingitemswerehandedtoparticipantsduringtheworkshop: A handout titled Metro Vancouver Growth Projections Overview of Methods and Assumptions. A questionnaire titled Long Range Growth Scenarios, Workshop 1: Understanding Metro Vancouver sgrowthprojections. AppendixCtotheSummaryoftheMetroVancouverLongRangeGrowthScenarios Workshop1:UnderstandingMetroVancouver sgrowthprojections April5,2018 Page10of10

13 MetroVancouverGrowthProjections OverviewofMethodsandAssumptions PreparedforparticipantsattendingUnderstandingMetroVancouver sgrowthprojections,april5,2018 Metro Vancouver s mandate in preparing, implementing and monitoring a Regional Growth Strategy requiresavarietyoflanduseanddevelopmentanalytics.themostfundamentalanalyticaltasksinthis rolearetoestablish,monitorandprojectpopulation,housing,employmentandlanduseinformation.as a collaborative regional agency, Regional Planning works closely with other Metro Vancouver departments,memberjurisdictionsandotherregionalagencies.metrovancouverworksespeciallyclose withmembermunicipalitiesincoordinatingthemetro2040policywithofficialcommunityplans(through RegionalContextStatements).Thisestablishesasharedregional/localperspectiveongrowththatapplies to Metro Vancouver s regional water and liquid waste utilities demand planning and to TransLink s transportationdemandmodelingtoensureappropriateintegrationamongregionalinitiatives. All projections are, explicitly or implicitly, scenario based. Metro Vancouver s trend forward scenario generally assumes that the variety of factors affecting the region (e.g. migration, economy, climate, politics)willberelativelyconsistentandstable.thisscenarioprovidesabasisforsubsequentdiscussions ofalternativescenarioswhichcansignificantlyalterassumptionparametersandprojections. MetroVancouver sprocessinpreparingregionalgrowthprojectionsincludes establishing baselinesor benchmarkestimates;monitoringcurrentactivityandprojectingfutureactivity.thecensusofcanada providesthemostreliablecomprehensivesourceofbaselineandtrenddataforpopulation,housingand employment.avarietyofdatasourcesareusedtomonitorcurrentpopulation,housing,employmentand land use activity, which is appended to the baseline data to prepare current estimates and to assess variationsingrowthtrends.projectionsthenextendthecurrentestimatesbasedontheindicators,trend analysisandscenarioassumptionsregardingthemanyfactorsinfluencingregionaldevelopment. AprimarymethodologicaltoolinMetroVancouver spopulation/demographicsprojectionsisacohort ProjectionModel.Thiswell establishedmodelingtoolutilizesabaseyearpopulationbygenderandsingle yearofagefordefinedgeographies,andprojectsthechangeinthenextyearpopulationduetonatural increaseandmigrationtrendsandassumptionsondriversaffectingthosetrends. Thisdemographicmodelingprovidesthefoundationforestimatingthehouseholdformationwithinthe populationandtheassociatedhousingdemand.censustrenddataonhouseholdmaintainerrates(person identifiedoncensusformsastheprimarypersoninthehousehold)andaveragehouseholdsize(number of persons per household/dwelling unit) are applied to the population projections to estimate overall regionalhousingdemandandlikelychoicesinstructuraltypesofdwelling. Regionalemploymentprojectionsarederivedthroughcomparativeprojectionsofthelabourforceand regional economic sector / employment trends. Allocation of regional employment to municipalities relatesbothtogrowthintheestablishedeconomicsectoractivitywithineachmunicipality,andrelating growthinpopulationservingsectoremploymenttrendstopopulationgrowthwithineachmunicipality. LanduseandprojectionsarebasedonMetro2040landusedesignationsanddevelopmentstrategies,the variouslanddevelopmentparameterscontainedinmunicipalofficialcommunityplanandlocalplans, 1

14 Long RangeScenarioWorkshop MetroVancouverGrowthProjections OverviewofMethodsandAssumptions Page2of8 supplementedbythecurrentmetrovancouverlanduseinventory.projectionsoffuturelanduseassume stable Metro 2040 land designations, and that future population growth, housing and economic land demandcanbeaccommodatedthroughintensificationofthatlandbaseandlandusecapacities. Theprojectionsarepreparedforvariousgeographiesasnecessaryforvariousapplicationstoincludethe regionaldistrict;municipaljurisdictions;sub municipal(1700)zones;utilitycatchments;themetro2040 UrbanContainmentBoundary,LandUseDesignations,UrbanCentresandTransitcorridors;oranyother geographyneededforanalysis.thetimeframesalsovarydependinguponthespecificapplicationsand relatedissues,andrangesfrompasttrendstocurrentyeartoshorttermand100 yearhorizons. Baselineyear,currentannualestimatesandshorttermprojections(under10years)arenecessaryfor numerousprogrammonitoringapplications.longertermprojectionsaremorespeculativebutnecessary inanticipatingandassessingpotentialfuturelanduseandinfrastructureissuesandpolicies.longerterm projectionsaresubjecttoconsiderationofvariousregionalscenarioswhichcanincludeabaseline trend forward aswellasalternativescenariosthatassumesignificantchangeinthemajordriversorcontext fortheregion. Finally, for each of the projections there can be various depths of research, analytics and resources involvedinexploringthehistorictrendsandpatternsofassociationamongallcontributingfactorsthat caninfluencefutureevents.thiscaninvolveveryintensivemodelinganddataacquisitionprograms,but theintensityandcomplexityofanalyticsmustbebalancedwithpracticalapplication,resourcesandtime considerations.giventhepotentialresourcedemand,metrovancouverattemptstocombineavailable staffknowledgeandresourcesfromtheregionalandmunicipalagencieswithcommissionedstudiesto providereasonableassumptionsandestimatesoffuturegrowth. OverviewofComponentMethodsandAssumptions 1.0Population Populationisthemostcommonlyappliedelementinregionalgrowthprojectionsandprovidesabasisfor projecting housing, employment and related land use. Metro Vancouver s population projections are based largely on Census data base counts and trend demographic indicators, and how those trend indicatorsmayevolveinthefuture.acohortsurvivalmodelisusedtocoordinatetherelationshipsamong the component demographic indicators and dynamics: natural increase births minus deaths; internationalimmigrationandemigrationflows;domesticmigrationflowstoandfromotherareasofbc (intra provincial migration) and Canada (inter provincial migration); and inter municipal migration as residentsmoveamongmunicipalitieswithinmetrovancouver. TheCohortmodelestablishesthepopulationbygenderandsingleyearofageforagivenbaseyear.Then for every subsequent year, the population for that single year of age is predicted by estimating the additions and subtractions due to births, deaths or net migration for that single year of age. Metro Vancouver s Cohort Model is built for projecting both at the regional level and for each member municipality. 1.1NaturalIncrease Naturalincreaseisthecapacityofapopulationwithinagivenjurisdictiontoregenerateordegenerate only through births and deaths within the current population. The current population for any specific

15 Long RangeScenarioWorkshop MetroVancouverGrowthProjections OverviewofMethodsandAssumptions Page3of8 future year may include past immigration or migration from outside that jurisdiction, but the natural increaseprojectedforasubsequentyearincludesonlythebirthsanddeaths.projectingnaturalincrease involvesprojectingthefuturenumberbirthsanddeathswithinthepopulation. Births.Projectingbirthsbeginswithhistorictrendsinfertilityrates(births)forwomenofchildbearing age. Vital statistics data is provided annually by each of the BC Health Authority jurisdictions showing historicbirthsper1,000womenaged15 44(bycomponentagecohorts) Births=Totalnumberofwomenbyagewithininthecurrentpopulation*fertilityrateforwomen byage Fertilityrateshaveshiftedbylargemarginsoverthepast20years.Overall,rateshavebeendecreasing, withratesforyoungerwomen(15 30)decreasingmorerapidlythanratesforolderwomen(30 45)have beenincreasing.projectingfuturepatternsinthesetrendratesmustmoderatetheratesofchangein thesetrends toavoidreachingextreme/unrealistic levels.forexample,pure extrapolationofrapidly decreasingratesforwomenunder25wouldresultinnegativeratesinthelater2020s.therefore,for eachcohort,thechangeinpasttrendratesareassumedtocontinueatadecreasingannualrateoverthe next10years,andtostabilizethereafterthroughouttheprojectionperiod. Deaths.ProjectingfuturedeathsintheMetroVancouverpopulationisbasedonhistorictrendsindeath ratesbyage,andassumptionshowthoseratesmaychangeinthefuture.statisticscanadaassemblesvital statisticsdataondeathsbyageandpublishesthedataannuallyaslifetables. FromhistoricdataintheLifeTables,MetroVancouver sdeathprojectionsutilizeasurvivalrate which istheprobabilitythatmalesandfemalesofaspecificagewillsurviveanotheryear. Deaths=totalpersonsbysingleyearofage*survivalrateforthatsingleyearofage Forexample,currentinfantmortalityratesindicatethatthereisasurvivalrateof.996formalesunder1 yearofage,ora99.6%chancethatmalechildwillsurvivepasttheir1stbirthday.similarly,thesurvival rateforafemaleaged91is.88,oran88%chanceofsurvivingonemoreyear. Survivaltrendrateswillcontinuetoincrease,especiallyforoldercohorts.However,becauseratescannot exceed1(livingforever),therateincreasesaremodifiedsuchthatrateincreaseswilldecreaseastherate approaches1.0,andcannotreachorsurpass.999. TheMetroVancouverprojectionsassumethatfertilitytrendswillcontinue,butwillstabilizewithina10 year time frame, and continue at a constant rate for the remainder of the projection period. With increasesinhealthtechnology,survivaltrendrateswillcontinuetoincrease,especiallyforoldercohorts. However,withtheoverallagingofthepopulationandagrowingshareofthepopulationintheolderage cohorts, the number of deaths will increase more rapidly than the number of births. Based on these assumptions,populationgrowthbynaturalincreasewilldecreasefromtozerobytheearly2030s,and becomenaturaldecreasethereafterasdeathswillcontinuetoexceedbirths. AninterestingexerciseforMetroVancouveristoprojectthepopulationfromthecurrentyearforward, assumingimmigrationandmigrationisreducedtozero,andseeingwhattheresultingpopulationinfuture

16 Long RangeScenarioWorkshop MetroVancouverGrowthProjections OverviewofMethodsandAssumptions Page4of8 yearswouldbeonlythoughnaturalincrease.froma2016populationof2.5million,thepopulationwould growtoabout2.6millionin2030,thendeclinethereafterto2.5millionin2041,and2.2millionby InternationalImmigration,EmigrationandNon permanentresidentpermits(work,students) Futureimmigrationwillbetheprimaryvariableaffectingfuturepopulationgrowthandrelatedlanduse considerationsinmetrovancouver.assumptionsforthefuturenumberofimmigrantstocanadachoosing tosettleinmetrovancouverarebasedonthefollowing: Federalimmigrationpolicyandannualadmissionquotas.Historicregionaltrendsintheannual shareofcanadaimmigrationsettlinginbcandmetrovancouver.immigrantsarecategorized primarilybyage,gender,countryoforigin,butalsowithregardtoadmissiontypeclassification (permanent,non permanent,economic,family,refugee,etc.).immigrantsettlementpatternsare basedon2sources:trendscensusplaceofresidenceandmobility,andperiodicdatapublished Canada sministryresponsibleforimmigration. EmigrationofpersonsleavingMetroVancouvertoliveinothercountries.Theemigrantestimates dataisbasedon2sources:censusplaceofresidenceandmobilityandperiodicdatapublished Canada sministryresponsibleforimmigration. Historictrendsinmunicipalshareofresidenceallocationsforimmigrantsandemigrantsbyage, sex,countryoforiginandethnicorientation. Trendsinsettlementpatternswithineachofthemunicipalitiesforrecentimmigrants.Immigrant originisconsideredinrelationtoobservedsettlementpatternswithinmunicipalities,withthe assumptionthatfutureimmigrantsfromparticularoriginsaremorelikelytosettleinareaswhere thatgroupisprominent. Within Metro Vancouver s Cohort Model, the net number of regional immigrants minus emigrants is estimatedforeachprojectionyear,andallocatedtoeachmunicipalitybygenderandsingleyearofage basedonthehistoricsettlementpatternsandtherelativegrowthprojectedforeachmunicipality.itis assumedthatthegenderandagestructureofimmigrantsandemigrantswillremainrelativelyconstant. Federal policy will maintain in the 300,000 persons per year range for Canada in the short term with gradual increases based on the aging profile of the national population, economic sector change and labour force demand. The Metro Vancouver share of Canada immigration (currently about 11%) is assumedtomarginallydecreaseaslargersharesofimmigrantssettleinotherareasofcanadaandwithin BC. Therefore, net immigration is assumed to be in the 30,000 to 35,000 per year range through the projectionperiod. WithinMetroVancouver,municipalallocationtrendsareassumedtocontinuewithinthe5to10 year term,withagradualshifttowardamorebalancedshare/distributionofimmigrantsettlementinrelation tooverallpopulationgrowthcapacityineachmunicipality.thecityofvancouverhasaccommodatedthe largestshareofrecentimmigrantsoverthepast20years,buthasdeclinedsubstantiallyfrom36%to26% overthatperiod.muchofthisreallocationhasbeentothecityofsurreywhichhasincreasedfrom13% to25%overthatperiod.allocationshareinbothcitiesareassumedtostabilizearoundthislevelthrough theprojectionperiod. Alternativescenarioswillconsiderthepotentialimplicationsofclimatechangeonpopulationmigration intheworld,potentialresponsesincanada spositionsonimmigrationpolicies,andrelatedimplications formetrovancouver spopulationgrowth.

17 Long RangeScenarioWorkshop MetroVancouverGrowthProjections OverviewofMethodsandAssumptions Page5of8 1.3Inter ProvincialMigration Inter provincialmigrationincludesthenumberofpersonsmovingtoorfrommetrovancouver/each municipalityandanotherprovinceincanada.trendsintheratesofinter provincialmigrationprimarily relatetothecomparativestrengthoftheregionaleconomyandopportunitiesinmetrovancouververses otherregionsincanada.however,metrovancouver sclimate,geography,lifestylealsofactor. Netinter provincialmigrationinthemetrovancouverregiongenerallyrangebetween 5,000and+5,000 residents per year. However, while the overall regional net flow is relatively minor in overall regional growth projections, and there has been an average regional in migration of 25,000 per year and out migration 22,000 per year over the past 10 years. The inter provincial flow dynamics vary among municipalities,butgenerallythenetflowhasarelativelymodesteffectonmunicipalprojections. Trenddataoninter provincialmigrationflowsformetrovancouverandthemunicipalitiesisderivedfrom customacquisitionofcensusmobilitydata currentcensusresidenceandplaceofresidence5yearsago. Thisdataiscross referencedbygender,ageandmunicipality.itisassumedthattherewillbeamodest net inflow of +/ 4,000 persons per year to Metro Vancouver, and that the historic flow distributions amongmunicipalitieswillremainrelativelyconsistent. 1.4Intra Provincial Intra provincialmigrationincludesthenumberofpersonsmovingtoorfrommetrovancouver/each municipality and other regions of British Columbia. Trends in the rates of intra provincial migration primarily relate to the comparative strength of the regional economy and opportunities in Metro VancouverversesotherregionsinBC.However,MetroVancouver sclimate,geography,lifestyle(e.g. costofliving)alsofactor. Netintra provincialmigrationinthemetrovancouverregionisgenerallyanetlossrangingbetween0 and 10,000residentsperyear.Theoverallregionalnetflowisrelativelyminorinoverallregionalgrowth projections. As with inter provincial migration, the inter provincial flow dynamics vary among municipalitiesbuthaveamoresignificantimpactonparticularmunicipalprojections. Trenddataonintra provincialmigrationflowsformetrovancouverandthemunicipalitiesderivedfrom customacquisitionofcensusmobilitydata currentcensusresidenceandplaceofresidence5yearsago. Thisdataiscross referencedbygender,ageandmunicipality.theprojectionsassumetherewillanetout flowininterprovincialmigrationfrom 5,000withasteadyincreasethroughtheprojectionperiods.Net outflow can be associated with the cost of living within Metro Vancouver, and the increasing aging populationutilizingequityinretirementyears. 1.5Inter Municipal Inter municipal migration includes the number of persons moving from one Metro Vancouver municipalitytoanother.trendsintheratesofinter municipalmigrationrelatetotheparticularlifestyle preferenceandchoicesforresidentsandtherelativeoptionsandopportunitiesineachmunicipality.the effectofinter municipalmigrationisquitesignificantwithintheregion.trenddataoninter municipal migrationflowsamongthemunicipalitiesisderivedfromcustomacquisitionofcensusmobilitydata currentcensusresidenceandplaceofresidence5yearsago.thisdataiscross referencedbygender,age andmunicipality.

18 Long RangeScenarioWorkshop MetroVancouverGrowthProjections OverviewofMethodsandAssumptions Page6of8 Between2001and2011between35,000to40,000residentschangedmunicipalitieseachyear.While thereisnonetchangefortheregion,thereisahighnetout flowinparticularmunicipalities(e.g.cityof Vancouver 4,000/year), and high in flow in other municipalities (Surrey, Langley, Maple Ridge). It is assumedthatthetrendflowpatternswillgenerallycontinue,atamodifyingrate,throughtheprojection periods. 2.0Housing Projecting future housing is directly related to the trends and projections in household formation characteristics of the projected population and dwelling choices of those households. Two basic indicatorsforhouseholdformationarethehouseholdmaintainerrateswiththepopulationandaverage householdsize. HouseholdmaintainersarethepersonidentifiedintheCensusastheprimarypersoninahousehold.Each householdmaintainerequalsonehouseholdequalsonedwellingunit.thedemographiccharacteristics ofthatperson(age,genderetc.)arethenassociatedwiththestructuretypeandtenureoftheirdwelling, andotherhouseholdtypecharacteristics(singleperson,couple,couplewithchildren,etc.).in2016,39% of (non institutional) persons in the Metro Vancouver population were identified as household maintainers. This rate can be further specified by age cohort and gender to account for shifting demographics,andbymunicipalitytoaccountforlocationaldifferencesandpreferences. Averagehouseholdsizeisthetypicalnumberofpersonsoccupyingadwelling,andcanbefurtherspecified tothestructuretypeandtenureorothercharacteristicsofdwellingsorhouseholds,aswellaslocation. In2016,theoverallaveragehouseholdsizeforMetroVancouverwas2.57 rangingfrom3.0forasingle detacheddwellingto1.87foranapartment.atahighlevel,apopulation(non institutional)projectionof 2.5millionwouldbemultipliedbyahouseholdmaintainerrateof.39,oranaveragehouseholdsizeof 2.56,toestimateabout975,000projecteddwellingunits. Both the household maintainer rate and household size measures vary over time, and the housing projectionsmustidentifytrends,patternsandfactorsaffectingthosemeasures,andanticipatehowthose measures are likely to change in the future. Changes in these measures are affected by changing demographics(e.g.babyboomerslifecycle,immigration),aswellaschangingexternalfactorsaffecting housing choice (e.g. household incomes, housing costs and availability). There can significant periodic shiftsinratesduetoparticularactivityintheregionaleconomyormajorpolicyinitiatives. Thesemaintainerandhouseholdsizeratesandtrendsvarybymunicipality,agecohort,householdtype anddwellingstructuretype.abaselinecensusandtrendprofileisestablishedforeachmunicipality,and augmentedbymonitoringcurrenthousingactivity primarilythroughcmhcstartsandcompletionsdata andmunicipalbuildingpermitrecords. Newhouseholdandnetnewdwellingdemandisprojectedattheregionallevelandforeachmunicipality. Municipalprojectionsarebasedonpasthousingtrends,thehouseholddemographicsprojectedineach municipality,thevariouslanduseanddevelopment/densityplanspreparedbyeachmunicipality,and overalldevelopmentpotentialgiventhephysicallandbaseandexistingutilizationofthedevelopableland base(beyondcurrentplansandplanhorizons). Housingdevelopmentthroughouttheregionhasconsistentlymovedtowardsmoredenseforms,with apartments now comprising about 60% of new housing growth. Many municipalities have revised

19 Long RangeScenarioWorkshop MetroVancouverGrowthProjections OverviewofMethodsandAssumptions Page7of8 development plans and allowable densities for various types of housing development ranging from urban centre areas, major transit locations, redevelopment/intensification of existing urban neigbhourhoods,aswellasnewurbanneighourhoodsbeingbuiltwithintheplannedareaswithinthe UrbanContainmentBoundary. It is assumed that the land base with the existing policy framework can accommodate projected populationhousingdemandthroughtheprojectionperiods.themetro2040growthconcepthasbeen incorporated into municipal OCPs to contain 99% of housing growth within the Urban Containment Boundary,tohaveabout40%ofnewdwellingunitswithindesignatedurbancentres,28%alongmajor transitcorridors,andabout30%throughintensificationoftheremainingurbandesignatedareas.the relativesharesofhousinggrowthwithineachmunicipalitywillvaryaccordingtothenumberofcentres, themajortransitserviceavailable,undevelopedurbanland,andhousingintensificationpatterns. There are currently about 6,000 hectares of urban designated within the UCB that is currently undevelopedorruraluse,andplannedforfutureurbangrowth.overthepast20yearsmetrovancouver s growth has been about 20% through new urban development and 80% through intensification of the established/developedareas.itisassumedthattheremainingurbanlandswithintheucbwillbelargely developedoverthenext15 20years. Byabout allnewhousingdevelopmentwillbethroughredevelopmentandintensificationof theexistingurbanlandbase.thiswilltaketheformofapartmentsinandaroundthecoreareas urban centresandtransitstation/corridors andvariousformsofhousingintensificationreplacingagingsingle detacheddwellingswithinmanyexistingurbanneighbourhoods. By2040thepopulationof3.4millionisexpectedtoyieldabout1.4milliondwellingunits.Apartmentswill continuetotake60+%ofnewgrowth,increasingtheshareofthehousingstockfrom40%to48%.the otherprimarysourceofhousinggrowth redevelopmentoftheexistingsingledetacheddwellingsinto hybridforms(e.g.accessoryunits,x plexes,lanewayunits,etc.) willincreasetakeabout35%ofgrowth, increasingtheshareofhousingstockfromabout15%to20%.singledetachedunitsareprojectedto decreasefrom35%to20%ofhousingstockthroughthesameperiod.beyond2040itisassumedthatthe landbaseandthispatternofdevelopmentwillcontinuethroughtotheturnofthecentury. 3.0EconomicActivity/Employment Projecting future employment is inter related between the type and level of economic activity in the region,trendsinemployment,andtheregionalpopulationlabourforce.althoughallprojectionworkis speculative, employment projections are much more speculative in relation to indicators, trends and monitoringdata,andmorevolatileinrelationtofluctuationsintheregionaleconomy. MetroVancouverestablishesaCensusbaselineforlabourforceandallocationsofemployedlabourforce byindustryandoccupationsectorsoftheregionaleconomy,aswellastheinter regionalresidence work flow.thestatisticscanadalabourforcesurveyisusedasaninter censalmonitorofemploymentactivity. However,asthisasmallsamplesurvey,itisusedonlytocalculatetotalemploymentestimatesatthe regionallevel,andtoassessemploymentsectortrendingattheregionallevel. Underthetrend forwardscenario,itisassumedthatmetrovancouver sregionaleconomicgrowthand sectoral composition will be relatively stable, with some trending projected among the component industrysectorsharesofregionaleconomic/employmentactivity.significantfactorssuchastechnology,

20 Long RangeScenarioWorkshop MetroVancouverGrowthProjections OverviewofMethodsandAssumptions Page8of8 agingpopuiation/labourforce,andthepart time/gigemploymentwillaffectemploymenttrends,but theprojectionsdonotattemptdetailedmodelingofthesefactors.althoughtheyaremulti symbiotic,it isgenerallyandsimplyassumedthattheeconomyandemploymentwillbeproportionatelyconsistent with the current status, but with trends in sector composition and employment reducing overall employmentinrelationtopopulation/labourforce. Metro Vancouver s projected population / labour force is used as a basis for estimating regional employment.trendsandassumptionsforgrowthineachindustrysector,andintheratiosofjobsineach sector, are used to modify the projections estimates future employment in the region. This work is informedandsupplementedbyanalysiscommissionedfromexternalagenciesincludingtheconference Board of Canada and local consultants, and compared to other available studies and projections includingexistingmunicipaleconomicdevelopmentstudiesorstrategieswhichincludeemploymentgoals orprojections. The regional level growth projections are allocated by municipality according to location share of industryemploymentactivityineachmunicipality andshareofpopulationgrowthineachmunicipality. Employmentineachindustrysectorisassessedaccordingtothelikelihoodthatfutureemploymentwill belocationdependent(e.g.ports,agriculture,educationinstitutions)orpopulationserving(e.g.retail, foodservices).thenemploymentinthosesectorsisproportionatelyallocatedtomunicipalitiesbasedthe existingsharesofindustryandoccupationemploymentwithinthemunicipality,assumptionsontheshare of regional employment in those sectors that are population serving or location dependent, the municipality s shareofprojectedregionalpopulationgrowth,andthemunicipality santicipatedshareof locationdependentsectorgrowth.thedraftresultsarediscussedwithmunicipalstaffanditeratedwith considerationforexistinglocalplans,policiesandstudies. Withtheprojectedregionalpopulationof3.4millionin2040,itisassumedtherewouldbeabout millionjobs. 4.0LandUse Landcapacityanduseprovidethedenominatororfoundationforpopulation,housingandemployment projections.thelanduseandcapacityassumptionsareverysimple: TheMetro2040UrbanContainmentBoundaryandlandusedesignationswillberelativelystable throughouttheprojectionperiods. Allprojectedpopulation/housing,economicgrowthandrelatedamenitiescanbeaccommodated onthislandbase. Theprojectedgrowthwillincreaseproportionatelyincreaseallformsofdensitythroughoutthe region. Themarket,developmentindustryandthepoliticaldecisionmakingwillaccommodateprojected growthonthemetro2040landbase.

21 Long Range Growth Scenarios Workshop 1: Understanding Metro Vancouver s Growth Projections Questionnaire April

22 Questionnaire for Workshop 1 Long Range Growth Scenarios Instructions Please complete this questionnaire on-site and leave your copy with us. Member jurisdictions will have additional opportunities to provide input through follow-up meetings with Metro Vancouver staff. Contact Information Name: Job Title: Organization: Population Projections and Assumptions 1. Are the assumptions and projections for population reasonably consistent with the plans in your organization? If not, what differences are there and what adjustments do you suggest? Housing Demand and Land Use Projections and Assumptions 2. Are the housing demand assumptions and projections reasonably consistent with the plans in your organization? If not, what differences are there and what adjustments do you suggest? 2

23 Questionnaire for Workshop 1 Long Range Growth Scenarios 3. Are the land use and land capacity assumptions reasonably consistent with the plans in your organization? If not, what differences are there and what adjustments do you suggest? Employment Projections and Assumptions 4. Are the assumptions and projected employment reasonably consistent with the plans in your organization? If not, what differences are there and what adjustments do you suggest? General 5. Are there any additional trends, drivers and assumptions that you feel need to be incorporated into the Baseline Scenario (trend forward) projections? If yes, please describe what they are and why they are important to consider. 6. If not already described above, what are the biggest challenges with growth projections for your organization? 3

24 Questionnaire for Workshop 1 Long Range Growth Scenarios 7. Metro Vancouver would like to encourage more consistent use of its projections by the region s member jurisdictions. To encourage consistency, how could Metro Vancouver s growth projections be made more useful to your organization? (For example, format, frequency of updates to the projections, level of detail, how the data is accessed, etc.) 8. Are there any additional data sources you can provide that could assist with Metro Vancouver s growth projections? 9. As we move forward to stress test the vision, goals and land use framework from Metro 2040 through a scenario planning process, who from your organization should participate? (Please provide name, job title and ) 10. Do you have any other comments you would like to share with us? 4