Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women (NOC 7362)

Transcription

1 Occupational Snapshot Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women (NOC 7362) The British Columbia Asia Pacific Gateway Railway Conductors co-ordinate and supervise the activities of passenger and freight train crew members. Brakemen/women check train brakes and other systems and equipment prior to train run, and assist railway conductors in activities en route. They are employed by railway transport companies. For more information, see Appendix A. Example Job Titles: Brakeman/woman Conductor switching yard Freight train conductor Front-end brakeman/woman Passenger train conductor Railway conductor Road freight brakeman/woman Tail-end brakeman/woman About this report Labour market information is data about the supply of and demand for labour in key occupations, sectors, and regions of the economy. The Asia Pacific Gateway Skills Table (APGST) and its partners developed this report to provide comprehensive and up-to-date information on employment needs over a 5- and 10- year forecast period, with a focus on Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women. Reports are also available covering regional and sector outlooks, as are Occupational Snapshots for an additional 51 occupations considered essential to the Asia Pacific Gateway. The snapshots contain detailed supply and demand information, highlights, and data tables. Reports can be found at lmionline.ca. This report provides in-depth information about Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women (NOC 7362) in the Asia Pacific Gateway that can be used to facilitate labour market planning for decision-makers and employers, and can help workers make informed choices about their careers and futures. The APGST generates the information in these reports from a labour market forecast based on three economic scenarios: the High Investment Scenario, Moderate Investment Scenario and Low Investment Scenario. The analysis that follows, unless otherwise indicated, is based on a Moderate Investment Scenario, which includes projects that are underway as well as planned and likely to proceed. Regional information is included for British Columbia as a whole as well as for the Lower Mainland and Northern BC. Information for the rest of BC s development regions is included in the forecast for the province as a whole, but is not reported separately. For more information, see Appendix B. Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women (NOC 7362) 1

2 Table of Contents About this report... 1 Executive Summary... 3 Key Facts HIRING DIFFICULTY INDEX... 4 LABOUR DEMAND... 4 Expansion... 5 LABOUR SUPPLY... 6 Replacement... 6 Base... 7 New... 7 BC Labour Market: Three Economic Scenarios... 3 Conclusions APPENDICES Appendix A Duties and Educational Requirements Appendix B Data Tables by Region and Economic Scenario The Asia Pacific Gateway Skills Table wishes to acknowledge the funding support from the Government of Canada s Sectoral Initiatives Program. -- The opinions and interpretations in this publication are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Government of Canada. Additional 2016 BC LMI Products: Occupational Snapshots Regional Outlooks Sector Outlooks APGST LMI Forecast Backgrounder More information can be found at or contact the Skills Table at info@apgst.ca or Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women (NOC 7362) 2

3 Executive Summary BY THE NUMBERS 27% 14% 18% of New are from other countries See page 9 for more information on Immigration. of New are to work in other occupations in the labour market See page 7 for more information on New. of today s Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women will leave the job market by 2025 See page 6 for more information on Replacement. Over the next 10 years, the demand for Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women is expected to be strong in British Columbia and Northern BC, and moderate in the Lower Mainland. Employers will face some in finding the workers they need to fill Job for Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women in most years of the forecast there will be fewer jobs in It is expected that over the next 10 years: 700 Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women Job will be created. At least 18% of today s Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women (approximately 335) will retire and leave the labour market by Job for Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women will increase by 12%. In BC, Replacement 1 will be less than half (48%) of Job for Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women, while Expansion accounts for 52% of Job, 67% in the first five years. In the Lower Mainland, 35% of Job will be from Expansion, 46% in the first 5 years. In Northern BC, Expansion generates 48% of Job, 53% in the first 5 years. The 695 new Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women are forecast to be made up of: Entrants (0%) 190 workers new to Canada (27%) 95 workers for other parts of the labour force (-14%) 605 workers from out of province (87%) 33% of Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women live in the Lower Mainland, while 26% live in Northern BC. 1 Refers to workers who retire and leave the labour force. Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women (NOC 7362) 3

4 Key Facts This forecast provides important information about supply and demand for Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women in British Columbia and key regions of the province. The first 5 years of the forecast show a growing economy, with the following 5 showing many workers retiring from the sector. The Asia Pacific Gateway is forecast to grow during the 10 years of the forecast as trade activity between North America and Asia continues to expand. This growth will increase the need for an available, welltrained workforce. HIRING DIFFICULTY INDEX The Hiring y Index assesses the overall for employers who are trying to hire in the labour market. It aggregates five metrics and combines them to provide a single measure that reflects the different interactions between the labour market components. For example, the metrics can show the ratio of workers to Job (the Market Tightness) as Tight, with International Reliance and Lag Low and Mobility positive (i.e., workers are moving in), while the Loss of Experience is Moderate and the reliance on New Entrants is. This implies quite different labour market conditions than a situation where the Market Tightness is Tightening (i.e., less difficult), but International Reliance is High, supply is growing much more slowly than Job, and a high portion of current workers are to work in other provinces. Employers will face some in finding the workers they need to fill Job for Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women in most years of the forecast, there will be fewer jobs in 2025 (see Table 1). In the Lower Mainland, conditions will become difficult in 2016 and 2020 to Table 1 Hiring y Index The number of positions (demand) has declined from the previous year. Oversupplied market 0-8 Easy market ly difficult 30+ Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women (NOC 7362) 4

5 LABOUR DEMAND 12% increase in Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women positions between 2016 and 2025 Labour Demand is the number of jobs available for workers who have the skills and/or required certifications to be considered qualified to work in each occupation each year. Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women positions are forecast to increase by 220 over the 10-year forecast: 45 in the Lower Mainland 70 in Northern BC In BC as a whole, 700 Job for Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women are expected to be created from growth and retirements, with: 155 in the Lower Mainland 190 in Northern BC The number of Job falls to 2019 and peaks in 2021, reflecting the two waves of investment in BC (Figure 1) Figure 1 Total Job, British Columbia, Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women Expansion Expansion Demand is defined as the number of Job in an occupation created by economic or business growth. In BC, Expansion accounts for 52% of Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women Job over the entire forecast period, 67% in the first 5 years. In the Lower Mainland, Expansion accounts for 35% of Job, 46% in the first 5 years. In Northern BC, Expansion generates 48% of Job, 53% in the first 5 years (Table 2). Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women (NOC 7362) 5

6 Table 2 Demand and Job for Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women (NOC 7362) Region Average Annual Number of Jobs Total Job, Jobs Created by Expansion, Jobs Created by Expansion, Expansion Demand as a % of Job British Columbia 1, % Lower Mainland % Northern BC % LABOUR SUPPLY 87% of the New of Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women is from other provinces Labour is the number of workers who have the skills and/or certifications to be qualified to work in each occupation each year, including those who are newly trained, have moved from other provinces or countries, or have moved from other occupations. For BC as a whole, labour supply is expected to grow by about 240 workers over the 10 years of the forecast, with: 45 of those workers in the Lower Mainland 80 in Northern BC On average, Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women are 41 years old, 44 in Northern BC. Replacement Replacement Demand is defined as the number of Job created by workers who leave each occupation, and the labour market as a whole, due to retirement or death each year. Replacement continues to be a significant driver of Job, although its impact is declining as more workers remain in the workforce after the age of 65, and the impact of the baby boom generation moving out of the workforce lessens. In BC, Replacement will create 335 Job over the 10 years of the forecast (Table 3). Table 3 Impact of Replacement on Job Region Job Created by Replacement, Job Created by Replacement, % Job Created by Replacement British Columbia % Lower Mainland % Northern BC % Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women (NOC 7362) 6

7 Loss of Experience assesses the rate at which experienced workers are retiring in relation to the number of Job. The rate of loss is medium for half of the forecast, and high in three of the other 5 years (Table 4). Table 4 Loss of Experience Measure Low Medium High Medium High Low Medium High 35% of Job represented by Replacement 35-70% of Job represented by Replacement More than 70% of Job represented by Replacement Base Base is a measure of the decline in the number of workers who are active in an occupation at the beginning of the forecast and subsequently leave due to Replacement over the forecast period. Base is calculated as the total supply less the average number of unemployed workers, less Replacement from each year of the forecast. Base calculations demonstrate the changes in each year of the forecast period to the cohort of workers as compared with the first year of the forecast. For BC as a whole, Base is expected to decline by an average of 18% over the forecast period, with the decline lower in the Lower Mainland (Table 5). Table 5 Changes to Base Labour Region Base, 2016 Decline, % Decline, British Columbia 1, % % Lower Mainland % % Northern BC % % % New New is defined as the number of workers who are new to the occupation from Immigration, other provinces or regions, or other parts of the labour force, or who are New Entrants newly trained and new to the workforce. The Lag Measure assesses the extent to which New is keeping pace with Job. It allows for an assessment of the extent to which conditions are tightening or loosening in the labour market. Risk is low for the majority of the forecast period (Table 6). Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women (NOC 7362) 7

8 Table 6 Lag Measure High Low High Low Count too small Job or New is less than 6 New is 0 or negative Low New is 97% or more of Job Medium New is 93-97% of Job High New is 93% or less of Job The forecast shows New largely keeps pace with Job for BC as a whole, the Lower Mainland and Northern BC (Table 7). Table 7 Labour Characteristics, Region Average Number of Qualified Workers New Entrants International Mobility Mobility Labour Force Mobility British Columbia 2, Lower Mainland Northern BC The composition of New will change over the forecast period, with increasing reliance on Immigration and decreasing reliance on Mobility (Figure 2). 125% 105% 85% 65% 45% 25% 5% -15% -35% New Entrants International Mobility Mobility Labour Force Mobility Figure 2 Components of New, Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women, British Columbia, 2016 and 2025 Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women (NOC 7362) 8

9 New Entrants (workers who are newly trained and new to the workforce) are forecast to represent no New in BC and the regions. Immigration (workers coming from other countries) is expected to add 27% to the total New of labour in BC. Regionally, Immigration represents: 118% in the Lower Mainland (which loses workers to other occupations) Reduces New by 3% in Northern BC New Entrants refers to the number of graduates, from school or training programs, who are filling Job. The number of New Entrants takes previous participation in the labour force into consideration. If a new graduate has never worked before, they would be counted as a New Entrant; if a new graduate worked 25% of the year prior to graduating, they would be counted as 0.75 of a New Entrant. The number of New Entrants may not match administrative data for graduates, as graduates do not always end up in the labour force. The International Reliance Measure assesses the extent to which the New of workers is dependent on workers from other countries. Given that the levers that control Immigration are not in the control of employers, this measure provides insight into the potential for New expectations to be influenced by changes in Immigration policy. Reliance on Immigration for Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women is high for half of the forecast period and extreme in 2021 (Table 8). Table 8 International Reliance Measure for Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women (NOC 7362) None Medium High High Low High None Low Medium High New is 0 or negative International workers are not part of New Less than 10% of New represented by Immigration 10% to 25% of New represented by Immigration 25% to 50% of New represented by Immigration 50% or more of New represented by Immigration Mobility (workers moving into the province) will increase supply by 87%. Regionally, Mobility accounts for: 3% in the Lower Mainland 96% in Northern BC The Mobility Measure demonstrates the extent to which movement into or out of the province affects the supply of workers available to fill Job. For the regions, it measures movement into and out of the region to other regions in BC, as well as to and from other provinces. For all of the forecast period, workers will be moving into the region (Table 9). Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women (NOC 7362) 9

10 Table 9 Mobility Measure Moving in The number of positions (demand) has declined from the previous year There are 0 Job No Mobility Net Mobility is 0 Moving in Workers are moving to the province/region Low 10% or less of workers Moderate 10% to 25% of workers High 25% to 50% of workers 50% or more of workers Labour Force Mobility (workers from other occupations and those returning to the labour force) will reduce New in BC by 14%. Regionally, Labour Force Mobility: Reduces New by 21% in the Lower Mainland Adds 7% of new workers in Northern BC BC Labour Market: Three Economic Scenarios The Low Investment Scenario is conservative. It includes projects that are underway or certain to proceed, for a total of $22.6B in investments from % of that investment will be in Northern BC. The Moderate Investment Scenario is the expected scenario. It adds projects that are planned and likely to proceed, for a total of $59.4B in investments from % of that investment will be in Northern BC. The High Investment Scenario is optimistic. It adds projects that have been announced, but with more distant start dates or more regulatory approvals needed to proceed. It is a total of $95.1B in investments from % of that investment will be in Northern BC. The APGST generates the information in these reports from a labour market forecast based on three economic scenarios: the High Investment Scenario, Moderate Investment Scenario, and Low Investment Scenario. The analysis in this report is based on the Moderate Investment Scenario unless otherwise indicated. In BC, the High Investment Scenario will generate a total of about 125 (20%) more Job than the Low Investment Scenario over the full 10 years of the forecast. The pattern is similar in Northern BC but the impact is much larger (60%). In the Lower Mainland, the High Investment Scenario will generate 30 (54%) more Job in the first 5 years of the forecast (2016 to 2020). In the final 5 years (2021 to 2025), the Low Investment Scenario outperforms the High by almost 15 Job, for a net effect that has the High Scenario generating about 15 (12%) more Job than the Low. The forecast shows that the economic scenarios impact both supply and demand for Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women. This holds true for the regions as well (Figure 3). Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women (NOC 7362) 10

11 Low Moderate High Figure 3 Expansion Demand by Scenario, British Columbia, Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women, Conclusions The labour market will have some for employers looking to hire Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women over the 10 years of the forecast period, in BC as a whole as well as in each of the regions. Employers can reduce the impacts of the forecast conditions by building programs and strategies to ensure an adequate labour supply. strategies to help employers gain access to workers and enhance productivity in this environment include: Developing and leveraging existing cultural and immigrant settlement programs to enable immigrant workers to integrate quickly and effectively into the workplace Developing retention and recruitment programs for experienced workers as central tools for expanding and maintaining a workforce Creating workplaces that encourage workers to stay in BC Developing programs aimed at retaining mature workers to help maintain corporate memory Examining workforce retention and recruitment programs for mature workers to extend the working lives of current employees Managing succession and building comprehensive succession plans and experienced worker retention programs to expand and maintain workforces Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women (NOC 7362) 11

12 APPENDICES Appendix A Duties and Educational Requirements Railway Conductors perform some or all of the following duties: Supervise and co-ordinate the activities of passenger and freight train crew members (except locomotive engineers) to ensure train operations are in accordance with schedule, train orders and code of operating rules Receive train orders and explain orders to brakemen/women, locomotive engineer and other crew members Communicate with train crew members by radio, signals or by other means to give and receive train operation information Collect fares on board passenger trains, announce approaching train stops and answer passenger enquiries Prepare train run reports. Brakemen/women perform some or all of the following duties: Check train systems and equipment such as air conditioning and heating systems, brakes and brake hoses prior to train run Communicate with train crew members by radio, signals or by other means to aid in the movement and operation of train Receive orders from traffic controllers, observe signals and track conditions and open and close track switches Set and release hand brakes and connect air brake hoses to couple and switch passenger or freight cars, making minor repairs to couplings, air hoses and wheel-bearing boxes as required Assist in collecting fares and helping passengers on and off train. Educational Requirements Completion of secondary school is usually required. Experience as a brakeman/woman is required for conductors. Experience as a railway worker is usually required for brakemen/women. Railway conductors require a Canadian Rail Operating Rules certificate. Brakemen/women require a Canadian Rail Operating Rules certificate. Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women (NOC 7362) 12

13 Appendix B Data Tables by Region and Economic Scenario Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women (NOC 7362) Note: Market Tightness: Assesses the tightness of the labour market; i.e., the degree of difficulty an employer may experience in trying to hire into the occupation. 1 - Excess supply More than 60% higher than normal unemployment 2 - Balanced supply and demand Between 30-60% higher than normal unemployment 3 - Nearing a tight labour market Between 0-30% higher than normal unemployment 4 - Excess demand, limited supply Below normal unemployment British Columbia, Low Investment Scenario Hiring y Index Historical Data Easy market Easy market Forecast Employment 1,681 1,734 1,692 1,823 1,879 1,905 1,916 1,925 1,931 1,944 1,964 1,978 1,986 Expansion Demand Replacement Demand Job Net New Positions Labour Force 1,840 1,868 1,833 1,953 2,025 2,062 2,080 2,093 2,099 2,105 2,116 2,125 2,131 Net New New Entrants International Mobility Mobility Labour Force Mobility Average Age Market Tightness Mobility Moving in Moving in Moving in Low Moderate Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Lag Low High Low High Low Low Low Low Low High High High Low International Reliance None Low Medium High None Medium High Loss of Experience Low Low Low Low Low Medium High High High High Medium High High Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women (NOC 7362) 13

14 British Columbia, Moderate Investment Scenario Hiring y Index Historical Data Easy market Forecast Employment Expansion Demand Replacement Demand Job Net New Positions Fewer jobs Labour Force 1,840 1,868 1,833 1,954 2,027 2,064 2,083 2,105 2,137 2,160 2,182 2,190 2,194 Net New New Entrants International Mobility Mobility Labour Force Mobility Average Age Market Tightness Mobility Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Lag Low High Low High Low Low Low Low High Low Low Low Low International Reliance None None Medium Medium High High High High Low High Loss of Experience Low Low Low Low Low Medium High Medium Medium Medium Medium High High Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women (NOC 7362) 14

15 British Columbia, High Investment Scenario Hiring y Index Historical Data Easy market Forecast Employment 1,681 1,734 1,692 1,842 1,924 1,972 1,995 2,022 2,056 2,077 2,095 2,100 2,105 Expansion Demand Replacement Demand Job Net New Positions Easy market Labour Force 1,840 1,868 1,833 1,952 2,018 2,064 2,102 2,144 2,185 2,215 2,241 2,251 2,255 Net New New Entrants International Mobility Mobility Labour Force Mobility Average Age Market Tightness Mobility Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Lag Low High Low High High Medium Low Low Low Low Low Low Low International Reliance None Low Low Medium High High Medium None Loss of Experience Low Low Low Low Low Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High High Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women (NOC 7362) 15

16 Northern BC, Low Investment Scenario Historical Data Hiring y Index Easy market Forecast Employment Expansion Demand Replacement Demand Job Net New Positions Easy market Labour Force Net New New Entrants International Mobility Mobility Labour Force Mobility Average Age Market Tightness Mobility Moving in Moving in Moving in Moderate Moving in Lag High High Low High Low Low Low Low Low High High Medium Low International Reliance High None High None None None Loss of Experience Low Low Low Low High Medium High High High Medium High High High Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women (NOC 7362) 16

17 Northern BC, Moderate Investment Scenario Historical Data Hiring y Index Forecast Employment Expansion Demand Replacement Demand Job Net New Positions Easy market Fewer jobs Labour Force Net New New Entrants International Mobility Mobility Labour Force Mobility Average Age Market Tightness Mobility Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Fewer jobs Lag High High Low High High High Low Medium High Medium Low Low Low International Reliance High None Medium Low High Medium Medium Medium High None Low Loss of Experience Low Low Low Low Medium Medium High Medium Low Medium Medium High High Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women (NOC 7362) 17

18 Northern BC, High Investment Scenario Historical Data Hiring y Index Forecast Employment Expansion Demand Replacement Demand Job Net New Positions Easy market Fewer jobs Labour Force Net New New Entrants International Mobility Mobility Labour Force Mobility Average Age Market Tightness Mobility Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Lag High High Low High High High Low Low Low Low Low Low Low International Reliance High Low None Low High Medium High High None None Loss of Experience Low Low Low Low High Medium Medium Low Low Medium Medium High High Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women (NOC 7362) 18

19 Lower Mainland, Low Investment Scenario Historical Data Hiring y Index Forecast ly difficult Employment Expansion Demand Replacement Demand Job Net New Positions Labour Force Net New New Entrants International Mobility Mobility Labour Force Mobility Average Age Market Tightness Mobility Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in High High Moving in Moving in Moving in Lag Low High High Medium Low Low Low Low High High High High Low International Reliance Loss of Experience Low Low Low Medium High High High High High High Medium Medium High Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women (NOC 7362) 19

20 Lower Mainland, Moderate Investment Scenario Hiring y Index Historical Data Forecast Employment Expansion Demand Replacement Demand Job Net New Positions Fewer jobs Labour Force Net New New Entrants International Mobility Mobility Labour Force Mobility Average Age Market Tightness Mobility Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Moderate High Moderate No Mobility Moving in Moving in Moving in Lag Low High High High Low Low Low Low Medium High High Low Low International Reliance Loss of Experience Low Low Low Medium Medium Medium Medium High Medium High High High High Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women (NOC 7362) 20

21 Lower Mainland, High Investment Scenario Historical Data Hiring y Index Forecast Employment Expansion Demand Replacement Demand Job Net New Positions Labour Force Net New New Entrants International Mobility Mobility Labour Force Mobility Average Age Market Tightness Mobility Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Moving in Low Low Low Lag Low High High High High Medium Low Low Low Low Low Low Low International Reliance High Loss of Experience Low Low Low Low Low Medium Medium High Medium High High High High Railway Conductors and Brakemen/women (NOC 7362) 21