Southwest Florida Regional Economic Indicators. May 2013

Transcription

1 Southwest Florida Regional Economic Indicators May 213 Regional Economic Research Institute Lutgert College Of Business Phone Florida Gulf Coast University 151 FGCU Blvd. South Fort Myers, FL

2 Table of Contents Introduction: Regional and National Background... 3 Airport Passenger Activity... 7 Chart 1: SW Florida International Traffic Trend... 7 Chart 2: Sarasota Airport Traffic Trend... 8 Chart 3: Punta Gorda Airport Traffic Trend... 8 Tourism Tax Revenues... 9 Chart 4: Lee County Tourism Tax Revenues... 9 Chart 5: Collier County Tourism Tax Revenues... 1 Chart 6: Charlotte County Tourism Tax Revenues... 1 Single-Family Building Permits Chart 7: Lee County Chart 8: Collier County Chart 9: Charlotte County Taxable Sales Chart 11: Taxable Sales for Inland Counties Chart 12: Lee County Taxable Sales Change from a Year Earlier Chart 13: Collier County Taxable Sales Change from a Year Earlier Chart 14: Charlotte County Taxable Sales Change from a Year Earlier Workforce Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment Chart 15: Lee County Labor Force and Unemployment Chart 16: Collier County Labor Force and Unemployment Chart 17: Charlotte County Labor Force and Unemployment Chart 18: Hendry County Labor Force and Unemployment Chart 19: Glades County Labor Force and Unemployment Sales of Single family Homes and Median Sales Prices Chart 2: Lee County... 2 Chart 21: Collier County... 2 Chart 22: Charlotte County Consumer Confidence Index Consumer Price Index Chart 24: CPI Annual Percentage Change Chart 25: Miami-Fort Lauderdale CPI Component Percentage Change Population Chart 26: Coastal Counties Growth 199 to Chart 27: Inland Counties Growth 199 to Chart 28: Projections by County

3 Contact Information: Dr. Gary Jackson, Director, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: Mr. Steven Scheff, Business Analyst, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: Mr. Jim Breitbach, Technical Support Phone: Introduction: Regional and National Background The Southwest Florida economy continues its recovery. Taxable sales increased by four percent from February 212 to February 213. Passenger traffic at Southwest Florida International airport in March 213 was up nine percent from March 212. Lee, Collier, and Charlotte Counties issued a total of 363 single-family home permits in April, 48 percent more than April 212. April 213 sales of Lee, Collier, and Charlotte existing single-family homes increased by one percent over April 212, while the weighted median single-family home price for the three coastal counties was up 26 percent. This certainly reflects a reduction in the number of distressed single-family home sales such as foreclosures and short sales. National housing prices have increased nine percent for the 2-city composite S & P Case-Shiller Home price index from February 212 to February 213 reflecting an improving housing market. Tourism Tax Revenues for Lee, Collier, and Charlotte Counties increased by five percent over March 212. The region s seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate continued to show improvement, declining from 9.1 percent in April 212 to 7.2 percent in April 213. County details can be found beginning on page 16. As reported last month, real GDP growth was 2.5 percent for the first quarter of 213 compared to only.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 212. Real personal consumption expenditures for the first quarter were more positive, growing at 3.2 percent compared to 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter. The national unemployment rate declined from 7.6 percent in March 213 to 7.5 percent in April 213. This constituted a drop of.6 percentage points from April 212. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or longer) is 4.6 million or 39.6 percent of all unemployed. The April Bureau of Labor Statistics Establishment Survey showed that national nonfarm payroll employment increased by 165,, a slightly higher increase than March s 138,. The April employment increases included 73, in professional and business services, 43, in leisure and hospitality, 29, in retail trade, 26, in education and health services, and 9, in financial activities. In contrast, information declined by 9, and government employment declined by 11,. The national consumer price index increased by 1.1 percent from April 212 to April 213, the smallest increase since the 12 months ended November 21. Medical care services increased 3.4 percent but energy prices declined by 4.3 percent. Core inflation (all items less food and energy) increased by 1.7 percent. 3

4 The latest statement of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) was issued on May 1st, and is summarized below: Economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace; Labor market conditions have shown some improvement in recent months, but the unemployment rate remains elevated; Household spending and business fixed investment advanced, and the housing sector has strengthened further, but fiscal policy is restraining economic growth; Inflation has been running somewhat below the Committee s longer-run objective, apart from temporary variations that largely reflect fluctuations in energy prices. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. The Committee continues to see downside risks to the economic outlook, and anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely will run at or below its 2 percent objective; To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $4 billion per month and longerterm Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month; The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from agency debt and mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities; Along with rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, these actions should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative; The Committee will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability; The Committee is prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its purchases to maintain appropriate policy accommodation as the outlook for the labor market or inflation changes. To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, and the economic recovery strengthens. The Committee decided to keep the target range of the federal funds rate at to ¼ percent and currently anticipates that this exceptionally low range will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6-1/2 percent, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than 2-1/2 percent, and longerterm inflation expectations continue to be well anchored. When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. At a congressional hearing on May 22, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said that the Fed could take a first step toward reducing the $85 billion per month bond-buying program, but that he was reluctant to move prematurely or aggressively. The next meeting of the FOMC is scheduled for June 18 th 19 th, 213. As reported last month, the FOMC released its latest forecast on March 2, 213, which is shown on the following "box and whiskers" charts. The red boxes are the central tendency forecast and the full range of uncertainty is reflected in the whiskers, or vertical lines. The March forecast was similar to the December forecast with a slightly lower range of forecast GDP growth for 213 and

5 The GDP chart shows that recovery started in 29, but it is expected to be several years before the economy returns to a more normal long-run trend ( LR ). For 213, the overall projected range of growth is 2. to 3. percent with a central tendency range of 2.3 to 2.8 percent. For 214, the overall projected range is 2.6 to 3.8 percent with a central tendency range of 2.9 to 3.4 percent growth. For 215, the overall projected range is 2.5 to 3.8 percent with a central tendency range of 2.9 to 3.7 percent growth. The long-run trend for Real GDP has a range of 2. to 3. percent growth with a central tendency of 2.3 to 2.5 percent. Real GDP growth rates are based on the change from the fourth quarter of one year to the fourth quarter of the next year. Source: Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting Statement, March 2, 213. As shown in the chart on the next page, the 212 national unemployment rate was high at 7.8 percent but an improvement over the 211 rate of 8.7 percent. For 213, the projected range for the national unemployment rate is 6.9 to 7.6 percent with a central tendency range of 7.3 to 7.5 percent. For 214, the projected range for the national unemployment rate is 6.1 to 7.1 percent with a central tendency range of 6.7 to 7. percent. For 215, the projected range for the national unemployment rate is 5.7 to 6.5 percent with a central tendency range of 6. to 6.5 percent. Long-run unemployment is expected to be in a range of 5. to 6. percent with a central tendency of 5.2 to 6. percent. The projections for unemployment are for the fourth quarter of each year. 5

6 Source: Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting Statement, March 2, 213. Issues related to the Federal budget, state budgets, European sovereign debt issues, health care costs, income and estate tax uncertainties, and oil prices continue to create some headwinds but the trend of slow but positive economic growth is expected to continue through 213. RERI thanks all of the individuals and organizations that have helped to bring together the regional information for this report. These include the Southwest Florida Regional Planning Council, the Economic Development Organizations of Charlotte, Collier, and Lee Counties, the Convention and Visitors Bureaus of Collier and Lee Counties, the regional airport authorities, the REALTORS of Lee and Collier County, the University of Florida Survey Research Center, and the county and city permit offices. 6

7 Airport Passenger Activity Airport passenger activity is the sum of arrivals and departures for Southwest Florida International (RSW), Sarasota Bradenton International (SRQ), and Punta Gorda (PGD) airports. Peak seasonal activity occurs in February, March, and April, with significantly lower activity in the summer months. Charts 1, 2, and 3 illustrate the seasonality of airport passenger traffic and the changes from year to year. In March 213, total activity for the three Southwest Florida airports rose to 1,289,393 passengers; a six-percent increase over March 212 and a 35-percent increase over February 213. Chart 1 shows SW Florida International airport passenger activity of 1,115,937 in March 213, ninepercent higher than March 212. Sarasota Bradenton passenger activity amounted to 139,677 in March 213, which was 18 percent below March 212, as shown in Chart 2. Punta Gorda passenger activity amounted to 33,779 in March 213, a 27-percent increase over March Chart 1: SW Florida International Traffic Trend RSW (SW Florida International) Airport Passenger Traffic Trend 11 Arrivals plus Departures - Thousands Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Local Airport Authorities 7

8 225 Chart 2: Sarasota Airport Traffic Trend SRQ (Sarasota Bradenton Int'l) Airport Passenger Traffic Trend Arrivals plus Departures - Thousands Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Local Airport Authorities 5 Chart 3: Punta Gorda Airport Traffic Trend PGD (Punta Gorda Airport) Passenger Arrivals plus Departures Arrivals plus Departures - Thousands Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Local Airport Authorities 8

9 Tourism Tax Revenues Tourism tax revenues for the three coastal counties are shown in Charts 4, 5, and 6, based on month of occupancy. Total March 213 tourism tax revenues for Lee, Collier, and Charlotte Counties increased by five percent over March 212, and by 61 percent from February 213. Regional tourism activity results were positive. Lee County tourism tax revenues for March 213 declined to $6,254,857, down one percent from March 212. Collier County s March 213 tourism tax revenues rose to $3,33,59, a 19-percent increase over March 212. Charlotte County tourism tax revenues for March 213 amounted to $592,21, an increase of five percent from March 212. Chart 4: Lee County Tourism Tax Revenues 7, Lee County Monthly Tourist Tax Revenue , Tax Revenue - $ Thousands 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month of Occupancy Source: Local County Tourism, Tax, and Economic Development Reports 9

10 Chart 5: Collier County Tourism Tax Revenues 3,5 Collier County Monthly Tourist Tax Revenue , Tax Revenue - $ Thousands 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month of Occupancy Source: Local County Tourism, Tax, and Economic Development Reports Chart 6: Charlotte County Tourism Tax Revenues 7 Charlotte County Monthly Tourist Tax Revenue Tax Revenue - $ Thousands Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month of Occupancy Source: Local County Tourism, Tax, and Economic Development Reports 1

11 Single-Family Building Permits Total single-family building permits for the three coastal counties showed an increase of 48 percent in April 213 over April 212. Single-family permits issued in the region amounted to 363 in April 213, compared to 246 in April 212 and 388 in March 213. Lee County reported issuing 28 single-family building permits in April 213, an increase of 68 percent from April 212, as shown in Chart 7 (which employs a logarithmic scale on its y-axis to more clearly portray long-term trends). Collier County issued 13 permits in April 213, up from 94 in April 212, as shown in Chart 8. Charlotte County recorded 25 permits in April 213, down from 28 in April 212 and from 29 in March 213. The 12-month moving averages of Lee and Collier Counties continue to show upward movement. Hendry County issued 3 permits in April 213, bringing its total to 5 in the four months ended April 3, compared to 6 permits issued in the first four months of 212. Chart 7: Lee County Single Family Permits Issued - Lee County Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months Data and Trend Permits Issued (Logarithmic Scale) 1 1 Permits Trend 1 23 Av 24 Av 25 Av 26 Av 27 Av 28 Av 29 Av 21 Av 211 Av 212 Av Apr 212 May 212 Jun 212 Jul 212 Aug 212 Sep 212 Oct 212 Nov 212 Dec 212 Jan 213 Feb 213 Mar 213 Apr 213 Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, including Fort Myers, Cape Coral, and Unincorporated Lee County, Bonita Springs and Fort Myers Beach permits. 11

12 Chart 8: Collier County 35 Single Family Permits Issued - Collier County Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months Data and Trend 3 25 Permits Issued Permits Trend 5 23 Av 24 Av 25 Av 26 Av 27 Av 28 Av 29 Av 21 Av 211 Av 212 Av Apr 212 May 212 Jun 212 Jul 212 Aug 212 Sep 212 Oct 212 Nov 212 Dec 212 Jan 213 Feb 213 Mar 213 Apr 213 Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, includes unincorporated Collier County permits only. Chart 9: Charlotte County 25 Single Family Permits Issued - Charlotte County Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months Data and Trend 2 Permits Issued 15 1 Permits Trend 5 23 Av 24 Av 25 Av 26 Av 27 Av 28 Av 29 Av 21 Av 211 Av 212 Av Apr 212 May 212 Jun 212 Jul 212 Aug 212 Sep 212 Oct 212 Nov 212 Dec 212 Jan 213 Feb 213 Mar 213 Apr 213 Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, includes unincorporated Charlotte County permits only. 12

13 Taxable Sales Taxable sales data track consumer spending, an important component of the regional economy. The following charts show the latest month of merchants collections (February 213), and not the reporting month issued by the Florida Department of Revenue. The five reporting counties saw an increase in total taxable sales in February 213 over February 212, amounting to $76.1 million, or four percent. Taxable sales for the region rose by two percent from the prior month of January 213. Taxable sales data for the coastal counties are shown in Chart 1. Charlotte County s taxable sales of $193.8 million in February 213 were two percent higher than February 212. Lee County taxable sales rose to $1,5.3 million in February 213, five percent more than February 212. Collier County reported taxable sales of $649.4 million in February 213, fourpercent higher than February 212. Taxable sales for Hendry and Glades Counties are shown in Chart 11. Hendry County s taxable sales of $25.9 million in February 213 were five-percent below the February 212 figure. Glades County reported February 213 taxable sales of $2.7 million, a 14-percent increase from February 212. Charts 12, 13, and 14 depict percentage changes in taxable sales from the same month a year earlier. Lee and Collier Counties continue to show positive year-over-year comparisons for every month in the two-year measurement period. Charlotte County has recorded positive changes for each of the past 17 months, and 21 of the past 24. 1,2 Chart 1: Taxable Sales for Coastal Counties Coastal County Taxable Sales 23 to Present Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months' Data Taxable Sales - $ Millions 1, Monthly Avg Collier Charlotte Lee , Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Most recent 13 months Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research 13

14 4 Chart 11: Taxable Sales for Inland Counties Inland County Taxable Sales 23 to Present Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months' Data 35 Taxable Sales - $ Millions Hendry Monthly Avg Most recent 13 months Glades Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research Chart 12: Lee County Taxable Sales Change from a Year Earlier 12% Lee County Taxable Sales: Change from Year Earlier 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research 14

15 Chart 13: Collier County Taxable Sales Change from a Year Earlier 16% Collier County Taxable Sales: Change from Year Earlier 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research Chart 14: Charlotte County Taxable Sales Change from a Year Earlier 1% Charlotte County Taxable Sales: Change from Year Earlier 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research 15

16 Workforce Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment Charts 15, 16, 17, 18, and 19 show total persons employed unemployed, and the unemployment rate for each county in the region from January 25 to April 213, on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Unemployment rates above five or six percent generally reflect cyclical unemployment and a slowdown of the economy from long-run trends. Seasonally-adjusted unemployment rates in April 213 showed continued improvement over the corresponding month of the prior year in all five reporting counties. Total employment in the five reporting counties increased by 9,829 persons over April 212, while the number of unemployed dropped by 1,18. The region s total unemployment rate fell from 9.1 percent to 7.2 percent. Lee County's seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 7.2 percent in April 213, a slight increase from the March 213 figure of 7.1 percent, and down from 9.2 percent in April 212. Employment in Lee grew by 6,333 persons from April 212 to April 213. Collier County s unemployment rate amounted to 6.8 percent in April 213, the same as March 213 and well below the 8.6 percent rate of April 212. Collier County saw an increase of 3.47 persons employed in April 213 compared to April 212. Charlotte County had an unemployment rate of 7.1 percent in April 213, edging up from 7. percent in March 213, but down from 9. percent in April 212. Hendry s unemployment rate dropped to 12.1 percent in April, a decrease of 2. percentage points from the April 212 figure, but higher than the March 213 rate of 11.7 percent. The April 213 unemployment rate in Glades County declined to 7.5 percent from 7.9 percent in March 213, and from 9. percent in April 212. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate for the State of Florida declined to 7.2 percent in April 213, the lowest rate since September 28. This represented a decrease from the March 213 figure of 7.5 percent; and it was 1.7 percentage points lower than April 212. The seasonally-adjusted national unemployment rate was 7.5 percent in April 213, down from 7.6 percent in March 213, and from 8.1 percent in April

17 Chart 15: Lee County Labor Force and Unemployment Numbers of Employed / Unemployed - Thousands Jan 5 Long Term Labor Force and Unemployment: Lee County Unemployed Employed Unemployment Rate Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan Unemployment Rate - Percent Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI Chart 16: Collier County Labor Force and Unemployment Numbers of Employed / Unemployed - Thousands Jan 5 Long Term Labor Force and Unemployment: Collier County Unemployed Employed Unemployment Rate Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan Unemployment Rate - Percent Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI 17

18 Chart 17: Charlotte County Labor Force and Unemployment Numbers of Employed / Unemployed - Thousands Jan 5 Long Term Labor Force and Unemployment: Charlotte County Unemployed Employed Unemployment Rate Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan Unemployment Rate - Percent Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI Chart 18: Hendry County Labor Force and Unemployment Numbers of Employed / Unemployed - Thousands Jan 5 Long Term Labor Force and Unemployment: Hendry County Unemployed Employed Unemployment Rate Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan Unemployment Rate - Percent Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI 18

19 Chart 19: Glades County Labor Force and Unemployment Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI Sales of Single family Homes and Median Sales Prices Charts 2 through 22 show the existing single-family home sales by a Realtor for Lee, Collier, and Charlotte Counties. The line represents median price with the scale on the right side and the bars represent the number of homes sold with the scale on the left side. Combined sales of single-family homes in the coastal counties amounted to 2,23 units in April 213, up one-percent from April 212, and up 11 percent from March 213. Median county prices increased 15 to 3 percent from the previous April. Sales of 1,172 units were reported in Lee County for April 213 at a median price of $182,. Unit sales were up one percent over April 212, while the median price rose 3 percent over the same time period. Sales were four percent above the previous month s figure of 1,123. Collier County had 486 single-family home sales in April 213, a seven-percent increase from April 212, but a 24-percent increase over the March 213 figure of 393. The median price increased to $31, in April 213, compared to $253, in April 212, a 23-percent increase. Charlotte County recorded 365 single-family home sales in April 213, down five percent from April 212, but 18-percent higher than the prior month. The median price of $134, in April 213 was 15- percent higher than that of April

20 Chart 2: Lee County 16 Lee County Existing Single Family Home Sales by REALTORS $2 14 $18 Number of Homes Sold Lee Homes Sold Lee Median Sale Price $16 $14 $12 $1 $8 $6 $4 $2 $ May 211 Jun 211 Jul 211 Aug 211 Sep 211 Oct 211 Nov 211 Dec 211 Jan 212 Feb 212 Mar 212 Apr 212 May 212 Median Sale Price - Thousands Jun 212 Jul 212 Aug 212 Sep 212 Oct 212 Nov 212 Dec 212 Jan 213 Feb 213 Mar 213 Apr 213 Source: REALTOR Association of Greater Fort Myers and the Beach, Inc. Chart 21: Collier County Collier County Existing Single Family Home Sales by REALTORS 6 $35 5 $3 Number of Homes Sold Collier Homes Sold * Collier Median Sale Price $25 $2 $15 $1 $5 $ May 211 Jun 211 Jul 211 Aug 211 Sep 211 Oct 211 Nov 211 Dec 211 Jan 212 Feb 212 Mar 212 Apr 212 May 212 Jun 212 Jul 212 Aug 212 Sep 212 Oct 212 Nov 212 Dec 212 Jan 213 Feb 213 Mar 213 Apr 213 Median Sale Price - Thousands * Does not include Marco Island. Source: Naples Area Board of REALTORS (NABOR) 2

21 Chart 22: Charlotte County 45 4 Charlotte County Existing Single Family Home Sales by REALTORS $16 $14 Number of Homes Sold Charlotte Homes Sold Charlotte Median Sale Price May 211 Jun 211 Jul 211 Aug 211 Sep 211 Oct 211 Nov 211 Dec 211 Jan 212 Feb 212 Mar 212 Apr 212 May 212 Jun 212 Jul 212 Aug 212 Sep 212 Oct 212 Nov 212 Dec 212 Jan 213 Feb 213 Mar 213 Apr 213 $12 $1 $8 $6 $4 $2 $ Median Sale Price - Thousands Source: Florida REALTORS Punta Gorda, Florida MSA ; Consumer Confidence Index Chart 23 shows monthly data for the last three years and 12-month moving average trend lines for both the Florida Consumer Confidence Index ( CCI ) reported by the University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) and for the United States Index of Consumer Sentiment ( ICS ) reported by Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan. The national ICS dipped to 76.4 in April 213, a 2.2-point decrease from March 213, and the same as the April 212 figure. The April 26 th Surveys of Consumers notes, Most of the April loss was in how consumers viewed future economic prospects. In particular, consumers were less optimistic about the ability of the economy to continue to expand without a renewed downturn sometime in the next five years. The strengths in consumer spending are now attributable to gains in household wealth, including rising home values and stock prices as well as reduced debts. The Florida Consumer Confidence Index for April 213 rose to 79, an increase of 3 points from the March figure, and 5 points higher than April 212. This rise in confidence was unexpected, said Chris McCarty, the Survey Director. Many economists would have expected confidence to erode in April as the effects of sequestration began to unfold. Nationally consumer confidence as measured by the University of Michigan using the same questions declined two points after recovering from a deeper slide in early April. Overall the effects of both the expiration of the payroll tax cut and sequestration have been minimal on everyday consumers, particularly here in Florida. While this may change over the next few months, currently Floridians are increasingly optimistic. 21

22 Chart 23: Consumer Confidence Index 1 Florida and US Consumer Confidence Data Most Recent 3 Years and Trend FL CCI US ICS FL CCI Trend US ICS Trend 5 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida and Thompson Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Price Index Year-to-year changes in the consumer price indices (CPI) for the nation, the U.S. Southern Region, and the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale area are shown in Chart 24 through April 213. Inflation rates for all three indices at April 213 were lower than the corresponding figures for April 212. Specifically, the National CPI grew by 1.1 percent from April 212 to April 213, compared to 2.3 percent from April 211 to April 212. The Southern Region CPI growth rate dropped to.9 percent in April 213, compared to 2.5 percent in the year ended April 212. The Miami-Ft. Lauderdale increase was.9 percent in April

23 Chart 24: CPI Annual Percentage Change Change From Year Earlier 8% 6% 4% 2% % -2% Consumer Price Index Monthly Data - Change From Year Earlier Miami / Ft. Lauderdale US South Region US National -4% -6% Apr-4 Apr-5 Apr-6 Apr-7 Apr-8 Apr-9 Apr-1 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Source: BLS The components of the Miami-Fort Lauderdale Consumer Price Index for the 12 months ending April 213 are shown in Chart 25. The largest increases were seen in education (2.5 percent), other (2.2 percent), recreation (2.1 percent), and medical care (2.1 percent). Apparel costs declined by 4.8 percent, and transportation by 1.1 percent. Chart 25: Miami-Fort Lauderdale CPI Component Percentage Change Miami - Fort Lauderdale CPI Components 12 month change ending April 213 Education and communication Other goods and services * Recreation Medical care Housing Apparel Food and beverages Transportation * Other goods and services: Tobacco and smoking products, personal care products and services, and miscellaneous personal goods. -8% -6% -4% -2% % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% 12 Month Percentage Change Source: BLS 23

24 Population As previously reported, the following charts reflect the most recent county population forecasts released by the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR). Population growth from 199 to 21 is shown in Charts 26 and 27. Collier County grew at an average annual compound growth rate of 3.8 percent from 199 to 21. Lee County s population grew at an annual rate of 3.1 percent. Charlotte, Glades, and Hendry Counties had average annual rates of population growth between 1.8 and 2.7 percent per year. Chart 28 and its accompanying table show projected population increases from 215 to 24. These projections have been lowered slightly from those previously reported. However, the overall rate of regional growth still averages 1.6 percent per year for this period, resulting in a 3-year increase of 59 percent for the five-county region from 21 to Chart 26: Coastal Counties Growth 199 to 21 Historic Population Growth Charlotte, Collier, and Lee Counties Population - Thousands Lee Collier Charlotte Source: Florida EDR: Florida Demographic Estimating Conference, January 21 and the Florida Demographic Database, August 21 24

25 45 Chart 27: Inland Counties Growth 199 to 21 Historic Population Growth Glades and Hendry Counties 4 35 Hendry 39 Population - Thousands Glades Source: Florida EDR: Florida Demographic Estimating Conference, January 21 and the Florida Demographic Database, August 21 Populaton (Thousands) 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Chart 28: Projections by County Population Projections Glades 13,286 14,135 14,953 15,723 16,442 17,127 Hendry 38,488 39,615 4,665 41,62 42,484 43,279 Charlotte 164, , ,28 188,32 194,94 21,123 Collier 341, ,585 48, , ,77 497,11 Lee 674, , , ,484 1,4,53 1,77,279 Source: Florida EDR: Florida Demographic Estimating Conference, January 21 and the Florida Demographic Database, updated March