Data Digest: Florida. June 2012

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Preston Singleton
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1 Data Digest: Florida June 2012

2 Broad indicators of economic activity for Florida and the United States continue to improve; however, Florida s pace of recovery remains below that of the nation. About the Coincident Economic Indicator Jan 2001 = Coincident Economic Indicator United States Florida Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia 2

3 Total employment in Florida has been slowly increasing over the last two years. In January, however, the state shed over 35,000 jobs. Florida regained most of that loss in February and March, but lost nearly 3,000 jobs in April. Thousands, seasonally adjusted 8,500 Florida Payroll Employment 8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4, Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 3

4 All industries lost jobs during the economic downturn with construction being the hardest hit. Most sectors are adding jobs with business services, leisure and hospitality, financial services, transportation/warehousing/utilities, and retail trade gaining more than the state average. Local government Federal & state government Other services Leisure & hospitality Education & healthcare Business services Financial services Information Transport/Warehousing/Utilities Retail trade Wholesale trade Manufacturing Construction Total Employment Loss and Gain by Industry: Florida Percent change peak to trough Percent change trough to present The state as a whole shed 11.5% of total employment from peak to trough, and has gained only 2.5% of the jobs back Note: A reading of 0.0 in the trough to present measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these industries. Likewise, a reading of 0.0 in the peak to trough measure indicates that employment continues to increase in these industries; in this instance "trough to present" is the percent change from January 2007 to present. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 4

5 3-month average annualized percent change Momentum improved for the major sectors of Florida s economy in April. Business services moved from slipping to expanding, while construction contracted further than it did last month. About Employment Momentum 6 4 Improving Employment Momentum by Industry: Florida Other services Expanding Leisure and hospitality Transportation/ Warehouse/ Utilities 2 Information Financial services Business services 0-2 Federal and Local government state government Manufacturing Education and health care -4 Wholesale trade Retail trade -6 Construction Contracting Slipping Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 5

6 Job losses in Florida and most of its metro areas were significant during the economic downturn, but almost all areas have shown positive gains from their trough. W. Palm Beach Tampa-St. Pete Tallahassee Vero Beach Sarasota Punta Gorda St. Lucie-Ft. Pierce Pensacola Panama City Orlando Ocala Naples Miami-Ft.L'dale Melbourne Lakeland Jacksonville Gainesville Ft. Myers Daytona Florida Employment Loss and Gain by Metro Area: Florida Percent change peak to trough Percent change trough to present Note: A reading of 0.0 in the trough to present measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these metro areas. Likewise, a reading of 0.0 in the peak to trough measure indicates that employment continues to increase in these metro areas; in this instance "trough to present" is the percent change from January 2007 to present. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 6

7 3-month average annualized percent change Florida s larger metro areas shifted slightly up into the expanding quadrant in April. Most of the smaller metro areas employment remained in the contracting quadrant. About Employment Momentum 10 Improving Employment Momentum by Metro Area: Florida Vero Beach Expanding Panama City Gainesville Pensacola Tallahassee St. Lucie-Ft. Pierce Melbourne Miami-Ft. Lauderdale Sarasota Tampa-St. Pete Lakeland Ocala West Palm Beach Orlando Ft. Myers Jacksonville Naples -6 Daytona Punta Gorda Contracting Slipping Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 7

8 3-month average percent change, annualized Employment momentum for April reentered the expanding quadrant after a month of slipping. About Employment Momentum Track 4 Improving Employment Momentum Track: Florida January 2007 Expanding Contracting Slipping Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 8

9 Florida s unemployment rate continues to decline but remains above the national rate. Gainesville, Jacksonville, Naples, Panama City, Pensacola, and Tallahassee all have unemployment rates below the national average. Percent of labor force 12 Unemployment Rates Florida United States Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 9

10 Initial claims for unemployment insurance continue to decline and remain well below their peak from early week moving average Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims: Florida May 19, ,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Initial claims averaged just over 10,000 during The current number of initial claims remains elevated. 5, Source: U.S. Department of Labor Employment and Training Administration, Haver Analytics 10

11 Consumer confidence in Florida has been declining since the beginning of the year and sales tax revenues have been increasing during the same time period. However, in April, revenues declined slightly = Florida Sales Tax Revenue and Consumer Confidence Year-to-year change, 3-month moving average Florida Consumer Confidence (left scale) Florida Sales Tax Revenue (right scale) Sales tax revenues have been helped by healthy activity in the leisure and hospitality sector. International visitors have played an important role in boosting tourism spending Source: Florida Department of Revenue, University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research Center, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 11

12 The Southeast Purchasing Managers Index, which measures regional manufacturing activity, increased to 63.5 in April. Florida s component fell dramatically from 78 in March to 56.4 in April. 70 Southeast Purchasing Managers Index The Florida component of the SE PMI was 56.4 in Note: 50+ = Expansion Source: Kennesaw State University, Coles College of Business Econometric Center 12

Home prices in Florida have declined substantially over the past five years. After stabilizing somewhat in 2009 and early 2010, prices fell again, albeit slowly, in 2011.

13 Home prices in Florida have declined substantially over the past five years. After stabilizing somewhat in 2009 and early 2010, prices fell again, albeit slowly, in March home prices in Tampa and Miami continue to show a slight uptick. Jan 2000 = S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index through March Miami Tampa Composite Source: S&P, Haver Analytics Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 13

14 The number of new home permits in Florida and nationally experienced a slight pullback in activity in April. New home construction remains near historic lows in Florida and the United States. 200,000 New Residential Home Construction Permits 30, , ,000 25, , ,000 20, ,000 15,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 United States (left scale) Florida (right scale) 10,000 5, Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Haver Analytics 0 14

15 Sales growth for Florida Realtors and homebuilders fell in April, according to the latest results from the Atlanta Fed s Real Estate Poll. About the Real Estate Contact Poll 1.0 FRB Atlanta Real Estate Contact Poll: Florida Current Home Sales vs. Year-ago Levels Realtors Homebuilders Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 15

16 Office vacancy rates rose in the first quarter of 2012 for Jacksonville, Tampa, and Miami. Rates fell in Fort Lauderdale and stabilized in Orlando. Percent United States Ft. Lauderdale Jacksonville Miami Orlando Tampa Office Vacancy Rate Q Source: CB Richard Ellis, Haver Analytics 16

17 Industrial availability rates throughout Florida declined in the first quarter of 2012 except for in Jacksonville. Percent 24 Industrial Availability Rate Q United States Ft. Lauderdale Jacksonville Miami Orlando Tampa Note: There was a break in the series for Fort Lauderdale and Miami from Q through Q Source: CB Richard Ellis, Haver Analytics 17

18 For additional sources of information, see our Local Economic Analysis Research Network membership at 18

Data Digest: Florida. September 2012

Data Digest: Florida. September 2012 Data Digest: Florida September 2012 Broad indicators of economic activity for both Florida and the United States have been improving since 2010; however, Florida s pace of recovery continues to be much