Data Digest: Georgia. July 2011

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Simon Gregory
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1 Data Digest: Georgia July 2011

2 Georgia s economic performance continues to mirror that of the United States. About the Coincident Economic Indicator Jan 2001 = Coincident Economic Indicator May United States Georgia Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia 2

3 Job gains remain elusive in Georgia as total employment has fallen below levels of the last recession. Thousands, seasonally adjusted 4,300 Georgia Payroll Employment May ,100 3,900 3,700 Georgia shed 8.4% of total employment from peak to trough. 3,500 3,300 3,100 2,900 2,700 2, Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 3

4 All industries but education and health care saw significant job losses during the downturn, and several continue to post declines. Where job growth has occurred, gains have been modest to date. Employment Loss and Gain by Industry: Georgia May 2011 Local government -6.6 State government Federal government Other services Leisure & hospitality Percent change trough to present Education & healthcare Percent change peak to trough 9.2 Business services Financial services Information Transport/Warehousing/Utilities Retail trade Wholesale trade Manufacturing Construction Total percent of Georgia s -8.4 construction jobs have been lost Note: A reading of in the trough to present measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these industries. Likewise, a reading of in the peak to trough measure indicates that employment continues to increase in these industries. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 4

3-month average annualized percent change Leisure and hospitality, transportation/warehouse/utilities, and business services show positive employment momentum, while government, construction and

5 3-month average annualized percent change Leisure and hospitality, transportation/warehouse/utilities, and business services show positive employment momentum, while government, construction and financial services employment remain very weak. Retail trade shows some improvement. About Employment Momentum Improving Employment Momentum by Sector: Georgia May 2011 Leisure & hospitality Education & healthcare Expanding Transport/ Warehouse/ Utilities 2.0 Retail trade Business services Federal government Construction Local government Wholesale trade Manufacturing Other services -6.0 Information Financial services State government Contracting Slipping Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank Atlanta 5

6 Job losses in Georgia s metro areas have been staggering. Recovery has been slow and some smaller metro areas continue to lose jobs. Employment Loss and Gain by Metro Area: Georgia May 2011 Warner Robins Valdosta Savannah Rome Macon Gainesville Dalton Columbus Brunswick Augusta Atlanta Athens Albany Percent change trough to present Percent change peak to trough Note: A reading of in the trough to present measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these industries. Likewise, a reading of in the peak to trough measure indicates that employment continues to increase in these industries. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 6

7 3-month average annualized percent change Some of the smaller metro areas like Albany, Brunswick, Athens, Gainesville and Dalton show positive employment momentum. Atlanta, Rome, and Warner Robins are improving, while Augusta and other, smaller metro areas remain weak. About Employment Momentum 12.0 Improving Employment Momentum Metro Area: Georgia May 2011 Expanding Albany 6.0 Brunswick Rome Dalton Athens Warner Robins Gainesville Atlanta Macon -2.0 Columbus Savannah Augusta -4.0 Valdosta -6.0 Contracting Slipping Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 7

8 3-month average percent change, annualized December 2010 marked the only month since May 2008 that Georgia s employment momentum was in the expanding quadrant, although barely. Employment momentum in Georgia began improving in April About Employment Momentum Track 4.0 Improving Employment Momentum Track January 2007 May 2011 Expanding Contracting Slipping Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 8

Georgia s unemployment rate (9.8 percent in May) remains higher than the overall U.S. rate. Percent of labor force 11.0 Unemployment Rate May 2011 1 9.0 8.0 Georgia United States 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.

9 Georgia s unemployment rate (9.8 percent in May) remains higher than the overall U.S. rate. Percent of labor force 11.0 Unemployment Rate May Georgia United States The table shows unemployment rates for metro areas. Current = April Year ago and January 2007 are included for comparison. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 9

10 Alternative measures of labor underutilization for Georgia namely, the U6 figure show that 17 percent of the state s labor force is unemployed or underemployed, which is a number higher than the comparable U.S. measures. About Unemployment Rates Percent, seasonally adjusted 2 Measures of Labor Utilization: Unemployment Rate and U6 Q United States: U6 United States: Unemployment rate Georgia: U6 Georgia: Unemployment rate Note: U6=Unemployed + Marginally Attached + Part Time Economic Reasons/Civilian Labor Force + Marginally Attached Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 10

11 Initial claims for unemployment insurance remain high. 4-week moving average 25,000 Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims June 4, ,000 21,000 19,000 17,000 15,000 13,000 11,000 9,000 7,000 5, Source: U.S Department of Labor Employment and Training Administration, Haver Analytics 11

12 Sales tax revenues are rebounding and have been posting year-over-year increases since late Year-over-year percent change, 3-month average Georgia Sales Tax Revenue May Source: Georgia Department of Revenue, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 12

13 Regional manufacturing activity declined in May, according to the Southeast Purchasing Managers Index produced by Kennesaw State University, based on decreases for new orders, production, and employment. Southeast Purchasing Managers Index May The Georgia component of the SE PMI was 64.6 in May Note: 50+ = Expansion Source: Kennesaw State University, Coles College of Business Econometrics Center 13

14 Existing home sales have declined after showing improvement in late 2009 and early Year-over-year percent change 3 Existing Home Sales Q United States Georgia Source: National Association of Realtors, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 14

15 As a result of low sales and high inventories, new home construction remains near historic lows in Georgia and the United States as a whole. 200,000 New Residential Home Construction Permits May , ,000 9, ,000 8, ,000 7, ,000 6, ,000 5,000 80,000 4,000 60,000 3,000 40,000 20,000 United States (left scale) Georgia (right scale) 2,000 1, Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Haver Analytics 15

16 Home prices in Georgia have declined substantially over the past five years. After stabilizing somewhat in 2009 and early 2010, prices declined a bit further. Jan 2000 = S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index through April Atlanta Composite 20 FHFA House Price Index: Q yr % change 5-yr % change 10-yr % change United States Georgia Albany Athens Atlanta Brunswick Columbus Dalton Gainesville Macon Rome Savannah Valdosta Warner Robins Source: S&P, Haver Analytics Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 16

17 Office vacancy rates rose throughout the recession but have stabilized in most areas. As a result, commercial construction activity remains at low levels. Percent 24.0 Office Vacancy Rate Q United States Atlanta Source: CB Richard Ellis, Haver Analytics 17

18 Despite the national pickup in manufacturing activity, industrial availability rates remain elevated in Georgia. Percent 22.0 Industrial Availability Rate Q United States Atlanta Source: CB Richard Ellis, Haver Analytics 18

19 Import activity through Georgia s ports is rebounding from the downturn during the recession. Exports through Georgia ports have remained steady. $ thousands Port Activity Q ,000,000 18,000,000 16,000,000 14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 Savannah District, imports Savannah District, exports 2,000, Note: The Savannah District includes Atlanta, Brunswick, and Savannah. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Haver Analytics 19

20 For additional sources of information, see our Local Economic Analysis Research Network membership at 20

Data Digest: Data Georgia August 2011

Data Digest: Data Georgia August 2011 Data Digest: Georgia August 2011 Georgia s economic performance is slightly flatter than that of the United States. About the Coincident Economic Indicator Jan 2001 = 100 115 Coincident Economic Indicator