NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Transcription

1 NEW ENGLAND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Lincoln Institute of Land Policy Economic Perspectives on State and Local Taxes May 11, 2018 Mary A. Burke Senior Economist New England Public Policy Center Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Disclaimer: The views expressed here are those of the speaker and do not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston or the Federal Reserve System.

2 Economic Activity: Robust Net Growth 1.40 From Pre-Recession Peak 1.30 Indexed to Pre-recession Peaks Recession CT ME MA NH RI VT US Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12 Mar-14 Mar-16 Mar-18 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, NBER, Haver Analytics

3 Real GDP Per Capita Below Pre-Recession Peak in CT, ME, RI Recession CT ME MA NH RI VT Line Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis / Haver Analytics

4 Payroll Jobs Below Peak in CT; Job Growth Weak in VT Indexed to Pre-recession Peaks Recession CT ME MA NH RI VT US Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12 Mar-14 Mar-16 Mar-18 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, NBER, Haver Analytics

5 Employment Growth Well Below Trend in ME, VT Annual Long-term Trend Last 12 months Since Peak Percent Percent Number Percent Number United States ,261, ,811,000 New England , ,600 Connecticut , ,300 Maine , ,100 Massachusetts , ,200 New Hampshire , ,700 Rhode Island , ,600 Vermont ,900 Note: Last 12 months refers to year-over-year growth through March Annual Long-term trend refers to average year-over-year growth for the period Since Peak refers to employment change from each state s pre-recession peak employment level. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics

6 Construction Sector Leads Employment Growth, Information Lags Percent Change, March March 2018 Construction Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Professional & Business Services Wholesale Trade Manufacturing Education & Health Leisure & Hospitality Finance Other Services Government Retail Trade Information -1.9 US -1.0 NE Percentage Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics

7 Unemployment Rate Very Low in All New England States Percentage 6 4 Recession 2 NE US 0 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12 Mar-14 Mar-16 Mar-18 Mar-17 Mar-18 United States New England Connecticut Maine Massachusetts New Hampshire Rhode Island Vermont Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, NBER, Haver Analytics

8 Broader Unemployment Measure Shows Involuntary Part-Time Work Still Up in CT U-6 Unemployment Rate Recession US CT MA Q4-06 Q4-07 Q4-08 Q4-09 Q4-10 Q4-11 Q4-12 Q4-13 Q4-14 Q4-15 Q4-16 Q4-17 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, NBER, Haver Analytics

9 Labor Force Participation About Flat Since Late 2014, Despite Earlier Declines (applies to U.S. and New England)

10 Increased Participation of Older Workers is Offsetting Effects of Population Aging Source: Author's calculations based Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS-CPS).

11 International Migration Makes Significant Contribution to New England Population

12 Foreign-Born Workers Increasing in MA Labor Force Source: Author's calculations based Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS-CPS).

13 Personal Income Growth Up from 2016Q4, But Still Moderate 8 6 Percent Change from Year Earlier Recession NE US -4-6 Q3-06 Q4-07 Q1-09 Q2-10 Q3-11 Q4-12 Q1-14 Q2-15 Q3-16 Q4-17 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, NBER, Haver Analytics

14 New England Hourly Wages Above U.S. Average; Increased More Since 2005

15 Income and Wage Growth Above U.S. Average in MA, NH, RI (to Dec. 2017)

16 Headline CPI Inflation Up Since 2015; 8 Boston Rate Above U.S. 6 Percent Change from Year Earlier Recession Boston US -2-4 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12 Mar-14 Mar-16 Mar-18 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, NBER, Haver Analytics

17 Fuel & Utilities Prices Driving Inflation Higher in Boston Percent Change, March March 2018 All Items All Items, Less Food and Energy Fuel & Utilities Shelter Transportation Education and Communication Food Medical Care Recreation US Boston Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics

18 House Price Growth Up in New England Since Mid Percent Change from Year Earlier Recession US FHFA Purchase-Only -10 NE FHFA Purchase-Only US S&P Case-Shiller -15 Q4-03 Q4-05 Q4-07 Q4-09 Q4-11 Q4-13 Q4-15 Q4-17 Source: FHFA, NBER, S&P/Case-Shiller, Haver Analytics

19 Single-Family Permits Well Below Pre- Recession Highs Source: U.S. Census Bureau / Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Note: Data are seasonally adjusted.

20 Multifamily Permits At or Above Pre- Recession Levels Since Late 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau / Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Note: Data are seasonally adjusted.

21 Boston Tops Donovan Index* of Major Cities *Source: City Donovan Index Rating Rank Boston Los Angeles San Francisco New York Oakland Pittsburgh Miami Baltimore Dallas Chicago Detroit Houston

22 *The Donovan Index is a measure of the rate at which a city s professional sports teams win championships.

23 Most NE States Facing Fiscal Strain, Weak Revenue Growth 2017YTD- 2016YTD Taxes (%) FY17 Shortfall As % of Gen. Fund FY18 Shortfall As % of Gen. Fund CT -0.3% ($467M) 3% ($2.3B) 13% ME 2.1% MA -0.5% ($431M) 1% ($749M) 2% NH -11.1% RI -1.8% ($134M) 4% VT 2.1% ($76M) 5% Sources: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics; Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

24 Pension Funding Level Below 70 Percent in Most States (Except ME) Recession CT ME MA NH RI VT Source: Pew Center on States / Haver Analytics

25 Consumer Confidence Exceeds Pre-Recession Levels Indexed to U.S. Average of Recession NE US 0 Apr-04 Apr-06 Apr-08 Apr-10 Apr-12 Apr-14 Apr-16 Apr-18 Source: The Conference Board, NBER, Haver Analytics

26 Present and Future Confidence Both Increased Apr-17 Apr-18 0 US NE US NE US NE Consumer Confidence Present Situation Future Expectations Source: The Conference Board, Haver Analytics

27 MA Econ. Growth Expected to Slow in 2018 Growth in Real Product, Massachusetts vs. U.S. 8.0 Source: U.S., Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA); Massachusetts: through 2017Q3, BEA; 2017Q4 and later, MassBenchmarks. 6.8 Quarterly Growth at Annual Rates (%) Projected Massachusetts U.S.

28 NEEP Forecasts Slowing Labor Force Growth, Steady Growth in Output and Population actual forecast forecast forecast forecast forecast Labor force In 1,000s 7,817 7,916 7,961 7,999 8,035 8,068 % change 0.2% 1.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% Population % change 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% Gross Product % change 1.8% 1.9% 2.1% 1.7% 1.7% 1.9% Source: New England Economic Partnership, Fall Forecast, November 2017.

29 FOMC Sees Slowing Growth, Flat Unemployment through 2020 Source: FOMC Minutes, March 2018

30 FOMC: Federal Funds Rate Below 4 Percent Through 2020; Long-Run Median 2.9 Percent Source: FOMC Minutes, March 2018.

31 Risks to the Outlook Upside risks to growth Strong labor market, bullish sentiment Federal tax reform and deregulation Downside risks to growth Can Fed achieve soft landing? Stock market volatility Risks for the region Tighter immigration policy Demographic drag on labor force growth