Assessing the Affordability of State Debt
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1 Assessing the Affordability of State Debt January 29, 2014 Jennifer Weiner, Senior Policy Analyst New England Public Policy Center Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Views expressed are the author s and are not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston or the Federal Reserve System.
2 Motivation State governments issue debt in the form of notes and bonds primarily to fund capital projects like roads and schools In the wake of the Great Recession, conflicting views on state debt emerged: On the one hand, low interest rates and federal subsidies (e.g. BABs) argue for more debt issuance On the other, fiscal crisis generating questions about states ability to meet financial obligations How can states gauge what is an affordable level of debt? 2
3 What is debt affordability and why does it matter? Refers to a state s ability to meet debt service requirements without: Raising tax rates to uncompetitive levels Negatively impacting provision of ongoing public services Has implications for: Fiscal sustainability Economic competitiveness Credit ratings 3
4 Assessing affordability: Debt burden Can be described as a simple ratio: Issues to resolve: What should be included as state debt? Should it be measured as a stock (outstanding debt) or flow (debt service)? What should be included as resources? 4
5 Defining state debt: Classifying obligations Several ways to classify bonded debt, including, but not limited to: By issuer: primary state government, state agency, public authority By security/pledge: general obligation, revenue, hybrid By revenues: general taxes, dedicated taxes, user fees By purpose: public, private (conduit debt) 5
6 Illustrative comparison of debt definitions 25.0 General Obligation Primary Government Total Long Term Debt to Personal Income (Percent) Connecticut Maine Massachusetts New Hampshire Rhode Island Vermont U.S. Mean 6 Source: Author s calculations using state CAFR, U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. BEA data. Note: General obligation and primary government debt for FY 2012 year end; Census data for FY 2011 year end. Does not include local government debt.
7 Defining state debt: Which debt should be counted? Common focus on debt directly supported by state taxes Excludes self supporting and contingent debt Competes most directly for scarce tax dollars Arguments for also considering a broader definition A default on other types of state debt may still have negative implications for state s credit rating All draw on same pool of resources for repayment 7
8 Debt outstanding versus debt service? Level of debt outstanding Stock variable Influenced by economic, political, institutional, and service demand factors Annual debt service Flow variable Influenced by: level of debt, speed of amortization, and interest rates 8
9 Measuring resources Resources available under current policy Revenues Expenditures Underlying resource base Population Personal income State GDP Value of property Revenue capacity 9
10 Commonly used debt burden ratios Metric Debt Service to Revenues Debt Service to Expenditures Debt to Revenues Debt per Capita Debt to Personal Income Debt to Value of Property States Employing Metric as Limit or Guideline AK, DE, FL, GA, HI, LA, ME, MD, MA, NH, NY, NC, OH, OR, RI, SC, TN, TX, VT, VA, WA, WV IL, MA (pre 2013) CT, DE, FL, MS, PA, VA GA, VT, WV GA, MD, MN, NY, NC, RI, VT, WV NV, NM, UT, WI, WV, WY 10
11 Multiple metrics can offer different perspectives Debt service to revenues: Captures nearterm affordability Debt to personal income: Captures longerterm affordability Pros Includes principal and interest costs Most relevant to budget discussions Policymakers control numerator and denominator Not dependent on bond term or payment structure Denominator better reflects long term ability to pay Cons Annual debt service affected by term of bonds and structure of payments Revenue dependent on current policy choices and poses measurement issues Only captures principal component of debt Less relevant to budget discussions Personal income consistently measured across states Personal income does not include all types of income that may generate state revenues 11
12 Approaches to assessing affordability using debt burden metrics Debt ceiling: Compare state s debt burden with specified numeric threshold Pros Cons Less data intensive Choice of threshold may be arbitrary Benchmarking: Compare state s debt burden with those of other states Less arbitrary Aligns with competitiveness view of affordability Requires standardized data Does not always account for key differences across states 12
13 Debt ceilings in New England Metric State Ceiling Source Debt per Capita Vermont Mean/median of Guideline AAA rated states Debt to Personal Income Rhode Island 5.0 to 6.0% Guideline Vermont Mean/median of Guideline AAA rated states Debt to Revenues Connecticut 160.0% Statute Debt Service to Revenues Maine 5.0% Guideline Massachusetts 8.0% Guideline New 10.0% Statute Hampshire Rhode Island 7.5% Guideline Vermont 6.0% Guideline Debt Service to Expenditures Massachusetts 10.0% (pre 2013) Statute 13
14 How New England states rank: Primary state government debt to personal income 10 Debt to Personal Income (Percent) Connecticut (2) Massachusetts (3) Rhode Island (9) U.S. Mean New Hampshire (35) Maine (38) Vermont (39) 14 Source: Author s calculations using state CAFR (FY 2012) and U.S. BEA data. Note: Does not include local government debt.
15 How New England states rank: Total state long term debt to personal income 25.0 Debt to Personal Income (Percent) Relative debt burdens of northern New England states increase when definition of debt is expanded 0.0 Massachusetts (1) Rhode Island (2) Connecticut (5) New Hampshire (7) Vermont (10) Maine (13) U.S. Mean 15 Source: Author s calculations using U.S. Census (FY 2011) and U.S. BEA data. Note: Does not include local government debt.
16 How New England states rank: Total state & local long term debt to personal income 30.0 State Local Debt to Personal Income (Percent) Connecticut s debt burden falls from top 5 to below the U.S. average when local government debt is included Massachusetts (6) Rhode Island (8) U.S. Mean Connecticut (27) New Hampshire (30) Maine (32) Vermont (33) 16 Source: Author s calculations using U.S. Census (FY 2011) and U.S. BEA data.
17 How New England states rank: Primary state government debt service to revenues Debt Service to Revenues (Percent) Relative debt burdens in New Hampshire and Maine increase when looking at debt service to revenues instead of debt to personal income 0.0 Connecticut (1) Massachusetts (4) Rhode Island (5) New Hampshire (23) U.S. Mean Maine (28) Vermont (37) 17 Source: Calculations by author using state CAFR (FY 2012) data. Note: Includes revenue from all primary government funds. Does not include local government debt.
18 Main take aways No single way to define state debt Choice of which obligations to include depends on perspective (and can lead to different conclusions) No single way to assess affordability Commonly used metrics and approaches each have strengths and weaknesses 18
19 What can states do? Report recommends that states: Improve transparency surrounding state debt Consider both narrow and broad definitions of debt and multiple debt burden metrics Re examine existing debt limits Exercise care with benchmarking View debt affordability as complement to capital planning An annual formal debt affordability analysis provides a venue for addressing these recommendations 19
20 New England Public Policy Center Federal Reserve Bank of Boston 600 Atlantic Avenue Boston, MA
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