What Will The Montgomery County Economy Look Like in 2017
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1 Montgomery County Chamber of Commerce What Will The Montgomery County Economy Look Like in 217 Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University February 27, 213
2 The Economy In 21 and the Changing Conditions that are Shaping Its Future
3 21 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 12. % Other Federal 1.7 % Local Serving Activities 34.8% Total Federal 39.8% Fed Wages & Salaries 1.% Procurement 19.1% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
4 Federal Procurement in the Washington Metro Area, $ Billions TOTAL = $1,23.5 Billion $8. B $75.6 B Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report
5 Federal Government Washington MSA (s) Annual Data May Oct Mar Aug Annual Month over Year Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
6 Summary for Federal Spending Trends in the Washington Metropolitan Area, Federal Procurement Outlays declined 8.4% between FY 21 and FY 212. Federal employment has declined since peaking in July 21, losing 8,7 jobs or 2.25%. Federal payroll declined by.6% between FY 21 and FY 211 and will continue to decline as the workforce shrinks and older workers retire and are replaced by younger workers.
7 The Relative Importance of Federal Spending in the Maryland-DC-Virginia Region The Region s Share of U.S. Population 4.7% The Region s Share of All Federal $s 9.% The Region s Share of All DOD $s 15.% Share of Total Federal Spending Subject to Sequestration 21.% Federal Spending as a Percent of the Region s GRP in %
8 Wash MSA Payroll Job Change: Private Sector The Great Recession and Recovery To December 212 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. (s) Total -193 Total Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
9 New York Houston Dallas Los Angeles Phoenix SF-Oakland Seattle Atlanta Chicago WASHINGTON Boston Minneapolis Detroit Miami Philadelphia Metro Area Comparisons Job Change Dec 21 Dec Largest Metro Areas (s) Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
10 (s) Large Job Markets Job Change: Dec 211 Dec Washington + 3, Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
11 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Dec 211 Dec 212 Washington MSA (s) Total = 3, Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
12 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Nov 212 Dec 212 Washington MSA (s) Total = -1, Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
13 Montgomery County: The Recession and Post-Recession
14 (s) Annual Data Annual Job Change Montgomery County*, Annual Month over Year Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), * Includes Frederick County, MD
15 Montgomery Co.* Job Change: Private Sector The Great Recession and Recovery To December 212 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. (s) Total -54 Total Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), * Includes Frederick County, MD
16 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Dec 211 Dec 212 Montgomery County* -1 (s) Total 16, Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), * Includes Frederick County, MD 9
17 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Nov 212 Dec 212 Montgomery County* (s) Total 1, Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), * Includes Frederick County, MD
18 14 Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area, DC 7.8 U.S. 5.7 SMD 5.2 MSA NVA 2 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted)
19 The Montgomery County s Economic Outlook
20 Job Growth in Montgomery County By Sector, (in thousands) Sector Change Percent Prof. & Bus. Ser Education/Health Retail Trade* Federal Gov t S & L Gov t Hospitality Financial Services Other Services Construction Information Ser Manufacturing Total Jobs
21 Major Sources of Job Growth in Montgomery County, (in thousands) Growth Sectors Change Percent Prof. & Bus. Ser Education/Health Construction Sub-Totals % Total MC totals Totals 3,33.4 3, Sources: IHS Global Insight; GMU Center for Regional Analysis
22 GRP Per Job in the Washington Area By Sector (in 25 dollars) Sector % Change Prof. & Bus. Services $134,75 $154, % Federal Gov t 138, ,566.1 Education/Health 59,73 57, S & L Gov t 6,975 56, Hospitality 42,883 42, Retail Trade 6,87 64, Other Services 7,339 69, Financial Services 543, , Construction 98,824 82, Information Services 349, , Other Sectors 147,93 151, GRP per Job $13,653 $138,
23 GRP Per Job in the Washington Area By Sector (in 25 dollars) High Job Growth % Change Prof. & Bus. Svs. (18.9%) $134,75 $154, Education/Health (9.3%) 59,73 57, Construction (45.2%) 98,824 82, Other High Value-Added Sectors Information Services (8.4%) 349, , Financial Services (2.8%) 543, , Federal (-8.3%) 138, ,566.1 GRP per Job $13,653 $138, Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
24 Montgomery County, MD: Growth potential Summary: (in billions of 212 $s jobs in thousands) Indicator Change GRP Growth $68.7 $ % Net Job Growth Replacement Job Growth Resident Workforce Growth 35,64 7.1% 6,29 T=95, % T=18.7% 548, ,241 29,787
25 Montgomery County, MD: Major Sources of Net New Jobs Occupation Net New % of Total % Change Health Care (all) 7, Business and Financial 7, Personal Care Occup. 3, Sales Occupations 3, Buildings & Ground Clean. 2, Management Occupations 2, Education & Training 2, Food Prep. & Serving 2, Office Admin Support 1, Life, Physical, Social Sci. 1, Computer, Math and Sci 1, Totals 35,
26 Montgomery County, MD: Major Sources of Replacement Jobs Occupation Replacement % of Total % Change Sales Occupations 11, Office Admin Support 9, Food Prep. & Serving 6, Business and Financial 5, Management Occupations 5, Health Care (all) 5, Arts, Design, Entertain. 3, Personal Care Occup. 3, Education & Training 3, Construction & Extraction 3, Computer, Math and Sci 2, Totals 62,
27 Montgomery County, MD: Health Care Occupations Demand Occupation Openings (% Total) Net New (% Change) Replacement (% Change) Nursing, Psychiatric, Home Health Aides % % % Registered Nurses % % % Physicians and Surgeons % % % Misc. Healthcare Support Occupations % % % Misc. Health Diagnostics and Treating Prac % % % Licensed Practical and Vocational Nurses % % % Therapists % % % Massage Therapists % % % Health Support Techs % % % Dentists % % % Diagnosis Related Techs % % % Clinical Laboratory Techs % % % Pharmacists % % % Healthcare Workers, All Other % % % Dietitians and Nutritionists % 59 9.% % Total % % %
28 Montgomery County, MD: Business and Finance Occupations Demand Occupation Openings (% Total) Net New (% Change) Replacement (% Change) Financial Analysts and Advisors % % % Management Analysts % % % Miscellaneous Business Operation Specialists % % % Accountants and Auditors % % % Market Research and Marketing Specialists % % % Human Resources Workers % % % Buyers and Purchasing Agents % % % Appraisers and Assessors of Real Estate % % % Compliance Officers % % % Training and Development Specialists % % % Meeting, Convention, and Event Planners % % % Tax Examiners and Revenue Agents % % % Logisticians % % % Claims Adjusters, Appraisers, Examiners % % % Miscellaneous Financial Specialists % % % Total % % %
29 Educational Levels of Net New and Replacement Jobs in Montgomery County, MD, Educational Level All Jobs Net New Replace ment Bachelor s 32.4% 38.1% 29.4% or more 38,271 15,699 22,572 Associate s 4.2% 4, % 1,922 4.% 3,49 HS/Voc. Ed. 63.% 56.3% 66.5% GED/OJT 74,326 23,188 51,138
30 217 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 16.3 % Other Federal 8.9 % Fed Wages & Salaries 7.7 % Total Federal 28.8% Procurement 12.2% Local Serving Activities 38.% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
31 The Changing Structure of the Washington Area Economy, (percent distribution) Professional + Bus. Svcs Education + Health Svcs. Hospitality State + Local Govt. Federal Other Sectors Source: IHS Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
32 Thank You Questions cra.gmu.edu
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