National and Regional Economic Update
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1 National and Regional Economic Update Greater Northeast Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce July 12, 2016 Gary A. Wagner, Ph.D.* FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA * The views expressed today are my own and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia or the Federal Reserve System.
2 PRESENTATION OUTLINE GDP and the near-term outlook (3 slides) Regional employment conditions (8 slides) Regional housing conditions (4 slides) Monetary policy & interest rates (2 slides)
3 GROWTH AND FORECAST FOR U.S. REAL GDP Quarterly (SAAR): 2005:Q1-2017:Q2 Annualized quarterly growth rate (SAAR) 4% 2% 0% 2016:Q1 = 1.1% -2% -4% -6% -8% Date 2016:Q2 2016:Q3 2016:Q4 2017:Q1 2017:Q2 Forecast 2.1% 2.4% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 GDP SPF Forecast Source: BEA via Haver Analytics Quarters plotted: 2005:Q1-2017:Q2
4 GDP GROWTH BY SECTOR OVER LAST 4 QUARTERS Black lines indicate historical averages from 1980:Q1 to 2016:Q1 Annualized quarterly growth (SAAR) 6% 5.4% 5.9% 4% 4.1% 2.6% 2.9% 2% 1.7% 0% -2% Real GDP Consumption Investment Exports Imports Government Source: BEA via Haver Analytics Last quarter included: 2016:Q1 Black lines indicate sector averages from 1980:Q1 to 2016:Q1
5 INVESTMENT GROWTH OVER LAST 4 QUARTERS Black lines indicate historical averages from 1980:Q1 to 2016:Q1 Annualized quarterly growth (SAAR) 15% 10% 5% 0% 4.1% 4.0% 0.9% 5.1% 6.2% 2.4% -5% -10% Investment Non- Residential Structures Equipment Intellectual Property Residential Source: BEA via Haver Analytics Last quarter included: 2016:Q1 Black lines indicate sector averages from 1980:Q1 to 2016:Q1
6 Employment conditions
7 CHANGE IN MONTHLY U.S. PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT Black lines indicate annual averages (in thousands) Change in payroll employment (thousands, SA) Revision for Apr 2016: jobs Revision for May 2016: jobs Jun 2016: 287K Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Source: BLS via Haver Analytics Months plotted: Jan Jun 2016 Black lines indicate annual averages.
8 RECENT U.S. AND TRI-STATE EMPLOYMENT GROWTH Total payroll employment (seasonally adjusted) Annualized growth rate (seasonally adjusted) 2.5% 2.4% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 1.7% 1.4% 1.2% 1.7% 1.5% 1.2% 1.4% 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.3% -0.4% -0.5% US DE NJ PA 12 Months 6 Months 3 Months Source: BLS via Haver Analytics Last month included: US (Jun 2016): States (May 2016)
9 ANNUAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SECTOR U.S. and Pennsylvania (excludes mining & logging) Total Total Private Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans & Utilities Information Financial Prof & Bus Services Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Government -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% US PA Source: Calculations from BLS via Haver Analytics. Last month included: US (Jun 2016); PA (May 2016)
10 TRI-STATE METRO AREA EMPLOYMENT GROWTH Year-over-year percentage change (3-month moving average) A = Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton MSA B = Altoona MSA C = Atlantic City-Hammonton MSA D = Bloomsburg-Berwick MSA E = Camden Metro Division F = Chambersburg-Waynesboro MSA G = Dover MSA H = East Stroudsburg MSA I = Erie MSA J = Gettysburg MSA K = Harrisburg-Carlisle MSA L = Johnstown MSA M = Lancaster MSA N = Lebanon MSA O = Montgomery-Bucks-Chester County MD P = Newark Metro Division Q* = New York-New Jersey-White Plains MD R = Ocean City MSA S = Philadelphia-Delaware County MD T = Pittsburgh MSA U = Reading MSA V* = Salisbury MSA W = Scranton-Wilkes-Barre-Hazelton MSA X = State College MSA Y = Trenton MSA Z = Vineland-Bridgeton MSA AA = Williamsport MSA AB* = Wilmington Metro Division AC = York-Hanover MSA AD* = Youngstown-Warren MSA * Also includes counties not shown on map. Source: Calculations from BLS data via Haver Analytics.
11 CHANGE IN QUARTERLY PHL METRO DIVISION EMPLOYMENT Black lines indicate annual average quarterly change (in thousands) Change in payroll employment (thousands, SA) :Q1: Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Source: BLS via Haver Analytics Quarters plotted: 2011:Q1-2016:Q1 Black lines indicate annual averages.
12 YOY EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SECTOR U.S. and Philadelphia MSA Total Total Private Mining, Logging & Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans & Utilities Information Financial Prof & Bus Services Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Government -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% US Philadelphia MSA Source: Calculations from BLS via Haver Analytics. Last month included: US (Jun 2016); Phil MSA (May 2016)
13 TRI-STATE AREA MANUFACTURING CONCENTRATION Share of area's total employment relative to U.S. (> 1 more concentrated) A = Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton MSA B = Altoona MSA C = Atlantic City-Hammonton MSA D = Bloomsburg-Berwick MSA E = Camden Metro Division F = Chambersburg-Waynesboro MSA G = Dover MSA H = East Stroudsburg MSA I = Erie MSA J = Gettysburg MSA K = Harrisburg-Carlisle MSA L = Johnstown MSA M = Lancaster MSA N = Lebanon MSA O = Montgomery-Bucks-Chester County MD P = Newark Metro Division Q* = New York-New Jersey-White Plains MD R = Ocean City MSA S = Philadelphia-Delaware County MD T = Pittsburgh MSA U = Reading MSA V* = Salisbury MSA W = Scranton-Wilkes-Barre-Hazelton MSA X = State College MSA Y = Trenton MSA Z = Vineland-Bridgeton MSA AA = Williamsport MSA AB* = Wilmington Metro Division AC = York-Hanover MSA AD* = Youngstown-Warren MSA * Also includes counties not shown on map. Source: Calculations from BLS data via Haver Analytics Calculations are the mean of figures over past 12 months.
14 THIRD DISTRICT MANUFACTURING BUSINESS OUTLOOK Current and last year's values are labeled Diffusion index (% reporting increase less % reporting decrease) Future Activity Current Activity Jan 2000 Jan 2005 Jan 2010 Jan 2015 Source: FRB Philadelphia via Haver Analytics Months plotted: Jan Jun 2016
15 Regional housing conditions
16 YEAR-OVER-YEAR STATE HOME PRICE GROWTH Core Logic Index, 3-month moving average (nominal) Source: Calculations from Core Logic Last month included: Apr 2016
17 TRI-STATE AREA HOME PRICE GROWTH Year-over-year, Core Logic index (3-month moving average) Source: Calculations from Core Logic data. Last month included: Apr 2016
18 HOME PRICE GROWTH, PHL METRO DIVISION Zip code level, Core Logic Index, 3-Month Moving Average Source: Calculations from Core Logic data. Last month included: Apr 2016
19 U.S. AND REGIONAL HOME PRICE RECOVERY Current prices relative to pre-great Recession peak Percentage below peak Quarters After Pre-Recession Peak % -5% -1.4% -2.2% -2.3% -4.9% -10% -15% -20% -19.0% -25% US PA Philadelphia Metro Div MBC Metro Div Camden Metro Div Source: FHFA via Haver Analytics Last quarter plotted: 2016:Q1 Each area's peak determined individually. MBC = Montgomery-Bucks-Chester Counties
20 Monetary policy & interest rates
21 DOT PLOT COMPARISON March 2016 vs June 2016 Percent Mar 2016 Projections Jun 2016 Projections Source: FOMC Projections, March 2016 and June 2016
22 MARKET-IMPLIED PROBABILITY OF A RATE HIKE Based on CME Fed Funds Futures Contracts (as of Jul. 7, 2016) Probability 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 13.4 % 4.0 % 0% July Sep Nov Dec 2.0 % 3.9 % Source: Bloomberg Days plotted: Jan. 11, Jul. 7, 2016 Shading represents FOMC meeting dates. Feb 2016 Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016
23 SUMMARY Overall, national outlook remains positive Consumer spending has slowed but remains steady Oil price boost is projected to continue until mid-to-late 2017 Nationally and regionally, we are seeing some slowdowns in energy, manufacturing, and construction sectors Inflation and global economic conditions remain the key for future interest rate decisions
24 Questions? Gary A. Wagner, Ph.D. Request a Fed Speaker: Follow us on Twitter Like us
25 EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS OF AN OIL PRICE DROP FRB Dallas, Economic Letter, April 2015 (vol. 10, no. 3) Source: Originally referenced from: The Shale Gas and Tight Oil Boom: U.S. States Economic Gains and Vulnerabilities, by Stephen P.A. Brown and Mine K. Yücel, Council on Foreign Relations, Energy Brief, October 2013.
26 NEAR-TERM OIL PRICE FORECAST (WTI) Monthly price per barrel (grey shading = NYMEX 95% confidence interval) Dollars per barrel (monthly average, seasonally adjusted) $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 WTI Actual EIA Forecast NYMEX Futures Price Jan 2015 Jul 2015 Jan 2016 Jul 2016 Jan 2017 Source: Energy Information Administration Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2016 Months plotted: Jan 2015 to Mar NYMEX 95% confidence interval in grey.
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