71 st Annual Field Meeting

Transcription

1 71 st Annual Field Meeting Hershey FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA

2 Banking Trends and Supervisory Update William Spaniel Senior Vice President and Lending Officer

3 Overview Third District Banking Conditions Earnings performance Liquidity and non-core funding dependence Commercial real estate (CRE) in the Third District Current expected credit loss (CECL) and impact to community banking organizations Regulatory updates

4 Third District Banking Conditions * The charts on the following slides uses call report data as of 2016Q1 and 2016Q2 (when possible). The universe of community banks in this analysis consist of commercial banks with less than $10 billion in assets. This report utilizes a 10 percent capped mean, or winsorized mean, to compute the average district and national ratios, unless otherwise identified.

5 Third District Community Banks Earnings Performance 4.50% 4.25% 4.00% 3.75% 3.50% 3.25% 3.00% 2.75% 2.50% Net Interest Margin Third District Nation

6 Third District CRE Highlights Generally, Third District community banks have experienced stronger CRE growth than community banks throughout the nation Overall, Third District community banks are reporting improvements in asset quality metrics In the Third District, higher noncurrent loans are reported within the CRE and construction and land development (C&LD) portfolios when compared to the nation Third District metrics have recovered significantly since the Great Recession Examination staff focuses on compliance with supervisory guidance and reviewing CRE, high volatility CRE, and C&LD loans

7 Third District Community Banks CRE Concentrations Based on Bank Size* 350% 310% 300% 279% 250% 236% 200% 150% 154% 150% 100% 113% 70% 119% 94% 96% 50% 0% 40% 32% 20% 18% 23% 24% 11% 16% 8% 8% < $100MM $100MM to $500MM $500MM to $1B $1B to $10B CLD Multi-Family OO NFNR Other NFNR Total CRE * This graph uses median concentrations for each of the asset categories and will therefore not compute to the total CRE exposure.

8 Third District Community Banks Overall CRE Loan Composition* 100% 90% 80% 34% 34% 38% 39% 41% 41% 40% 39% 44% 39% 70% 60% 50% 40% 37% 35% 34% 36% 37% 38% 37% 36% 32% 34% 30% 20% 10% 0% 5% 4% 5% 5% 7% 8% 10% 13% 14% 20% 25% 27% 23% 20% 15% 13% 12% 12% 10% 7% Q22016 CLD Multi Family OO NFNR Other NFNR * This graph includes categorical CRE loans as a percentage of total CRE loans within the Third District at each time interval.

9 Current Expected Credit Loss (CECL)

10 CECL Model FASB issued ASU CECL recognizes expected credit losses on financial instruments Applies to all banks, savings associations, and holding companies Effective for SEC filers in 2020 and for other entities in 2021 Regulators issued a joint statement on the New Accounting Standard on Financial Instruments Federal Reserve issued supervisory (SR) letter

11 Preparing for CECL Review existing allowance model, systems, and practices and leverage as appropriate Engage all relevant business lines in planning and implementation efforts Identify and collect historical data to estimate life of loan expected losses Discuss plans with auditors, industry peers, and regulators

12 Regulatory Updates

13 Banking Agencies Efforts to Reduce Regulatory Burden Interagency efforts to alleviate regulatory burden Use of evaluation in lieu of appraisal for real estate related financial transactions Proposal to reduce Call Report requirements for small financial institutions FAST Act changes Extended examination cycle for institutions under $1 billion Annual privacy notice under Regulation P Community bank exemption for certain mortgage rules Economic Growth and Regulatory Paperwork Reduction Act Review Process Regulators continue to address comments based on 2014 and 2015 outreach meetings

14 Regulatory Updates Consumer Financial Protection Bureau s pending proposed rules Prepaid cards Mortgage servicing Payday lending/title loan proposal Federal Reserve 2016 efforts Off-site loan review during examinations Expectations for relying on work of insured depository institution regulators

15 Banking Trends and Supervisory Update William Spaniel Senior Vice President and Lending Officer

16 Report on Economic and Financial Developments Gary A. Wagner * Regional Economic Advisor * The views expressed today are my own and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia or the Federal Reserve System.

17 PRESENTATION OUTLINE GDP and near-term outlook (4 slides) Employment (7 slides) Housing conditions (6 slides) Migration and income trends (4 slides) Monetary policy update (3 slides)

18 GROWTH AND FORECAST FOR U.S. REAL GDP Quarterly (SAAR): 2005:Q1-2017:Q3 Annualized quarterly growth rate (SAAR) 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% 2016:Q2 = 1.1% Date Forecast 2016:Q3 2.6% 2016:Q4 2.3% 2017:Q1 2.3% 2017:Q2 2.3% 2017:Q3 2.1% Jan 2006 Jan 2008 Jan 2010 Jan 2012 Jan 2014 Jan 2016 Jan 2018 GDP SPF Forecast Source: BEA via Haver Analytics Quarters plotted: 2005:Q1-2017:Q3

19 GDP GROWTH BY SECTOR OVER LAST 4 QUARTERS Black lines indicate historical averages from 1980:Q1 to 2016:Q2 Annualized quarterly growth (SAAR) 5% 0% 2.6% 2.9% 4.0% 5.3% 5.9% 1.7% -5% -10% Real GDP Consumption Investment Exports Imports Government Source: BEA via Haver Analytics Last quarter included: 2016:Q2 Black lines indicate sector averages from 1980:Q1 to 2016:Q2

20 GDP AND GDP PLUS GROWTH Quarterly (SAAR): 2012:Q1-2016:Q2 Annualized quarterly growth rate (SAAR) 6% 5% GDP Plus GDP 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1.1% 0.7 % -1% Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Sources: BEA and FRB Philadelphia via Haver Analytics Quarters plotted: 2012:Q1-2016:Q2

21 FRB PHILADELPHIA PARTISAN CONFLICT INDEX Higher values indicate more political disagreement Index: 1990= Jan 2000 Jan 2005 Jan 2010 Jan 2015 Source: FRB Philadelphia Months plotted: Jan 2000 to Jun 2016

22 Employment

23 CHANGE IN MONTHLY U.S. PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT Black lines indicate annual averages (in thousands) Change in payroll employment (thousands, SA) Aug 2016: Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Source: BLS via Haver Analytics Months plotted: Jan Aug 2016 Black lines indicate annual averages.

24 CHANGE IN QUARTERLY PA PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT Black lines indicate annual average quarterly change (in thousands) Change in payroll employment (thousands, SA) :Q2: Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Source: BLS via Haver Analytics Quarters plotted: 2011:Q1-2016:Q2 Black lines indicate annual averages.

25 ANNUAL EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SECTOR U.S. and Pennsylvania (excludes mining & logging) Total Total Private Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans & Utilities Information Financial Prof & Bus Services Education & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Government -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% US PA Source: Calculations from BLS via Haver Analytics. Last month included: US (Jul 2016); PA (Jul 2016)

26 TRI-STATE METRO AREA EMPLOYMENT GROWTH Year-over-year percentage change (3-month moving average) A = Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton MSA B = Altoona MSA C = Atlantic City-Hammonton MSA D = Bloomsburg-Berwick MSA E = Camden Metro Division F = Chambersburg-Waynesboro MSA G = Dover MSA H = East Stroudsburg MSA I = Erie MSA J = Gettysburg MSA K = Harrisburg-Carlisle MSA L = Johnstown MSA M = Lancaster MSA N = Lebanon MSA O = Montgomery-Bucks-Chester County MD P = Newark Metro Division Q* = New York-New Jersey-White Plains MD R = Ocean City MSA S = Philadelphia-Delaware County MD T = Pittsburgh MSA U = Reading MSA V* = Salisbury MSA W = Scranton-Wilkes-Barre-Hazelton MSA X = State College MSA Y = Trenton MSA Z = Vineland-Bridgeton MSA AA = Williamsport MSA AB* = Wilmington Metro Division AC = York-Hanover MSA AD* = Youngstown-Warren MSA * Also includes counties not shown on map. Source: Calculations from BLS data via Haver Analytics.

27 TOTAL NUMBER OF WELLS IN PENNSYLVANIA By well type, (2016 data through July) Number of Wells Conventional Unconventional Source: PA Dept. of Environmental Protection Years plotted: (2016 data through July)

28 PENNSYLVANIA ACTIVE UNCONVENTIONAL WELLS 2011 Active Wells Source: PA Dept. of Environmental Protection

29 PENNSYLVANIA ACTIVE UNCONVENTIONAL WELLS 2016 Active Wells Source: PA Dept. of Environmental Protection

30 Housing conditions

31 YEAR-OVER-YEAR STATE HOME PRICE GROWTH Core Logic Index, 3-month moving average (nominal) Source: Calculations from Core Logic Last month included: Jun 2016

32 FORECLOSURE ACTIVITY As a share of all active loans (maximum and most recent values labeled) Percentage of active loans (seasonally adjusted) 8% 7.5 % 6% 4% 3.5 % 3.8 % 3.4 % 3.4 % 2% 1.8 % 1.4 % 1.1 % 0% US DE NJ PA Source: McDash-HMDA via RADAR Months plotted: Jan Jul 2016 Jan 2000 Jan 2005 Jan 2010 Jan 2015

33 REO ACTIVITY As a share of all active loans (maximum and most recent values labeled) Percentage of active loans (seasonally adjusted) 1.5% 1.4 % 1.3 % 1.0% 1.0 % 1.0 % 0.5% 0.7 % 0.6 % 0.0% Source: McDash-HMDA via RADAR Months plotted: Jan Jul 2016 US DE NJ PA Jan 2000 Jan 2005 Jan 2010 Jan 2015

34 TRI-STATE AREA HOME PRICE GROWTH Year-over-year, Core Logic index (3-month moving average) Source: Calculations from Core Logic data. Last month included: Jun 2016

35 TRI-STATE AREA NON-DISTRESSED HOME PRICE GROWTH Year-over-year, Core Logic index (3-month moving average) Source: Calculations from Core Logic data. Last month included: Jun 2016

36 HOMEOWNERS WITH NEGATIVE EQUITY Maximum values compared to current values Percentage of homes (not seasonally adjusted) 40% Current (2016:Q2) Maximum 35% 30% 31.4% 28.2% 34.2% 30.0% 25% 20% 21.0% 21.5% 19.4% 18.6% 19.3% 15% 10% 12.1% 12.5% 14.2% 9.6% 6.8% 9.2% 13.1% 5% 0% US PA Chambersburg MSA Gettysburg MSA Harrisburg MSA Lancaster MSA Source: Zillow Maximum dates are as follows: US 2012:Q1; PA 2012:Q1; Chambersburg MSA 2012:Q3; Gettysburg MSA 2012:Q1; Harrisburg MSA 2011:Q2; Lancaster MSA 2012:Q2; Lebanon MSA 2012:Q2; York MSA 2012:Q4 Lebanon MSA York MSA

37 Migration Trends

38 TRI-STATE MIGRATION PATTERNS USING IRS DATA Percentage Change in Number of Tax Returns, (base year = 2007) Source: Calculations from Internal Revenue Service data.

39 AGI CHANGE FROM TOTAL MIGRATION Percentage change in total adjusted gross income, (base year = 2007) Source: Calculations from Internal Revenue Service data.

40 AGI CHANGE FROM OUT-OF-STATE MIGRATION Percentage change in total adjusted gross income, (base year = 2007) Source: Calculations from Internal Revenue Service data.

41 TOP ORIGINS AND DESTINATIONS BY STATE To/from Pennsylvania, (base year = 2007) Total inflow = $38.3 Total outflow = $43.0 Source: Calculations using data from the Internal Revenue Service.

42 Monetary Policy

43 U.S. PCE INFLATION Year-over-year (seasonally adjusted) Year-over-year percent change (seasonally adjusted) 4% 3% 2% 1% 2.0 % 1.6 % 0.8 % 0% -1% -2% PCE PCE Core FOMC Target Jan 2000 Jan 2005 Jan 2010 Jan 2015 Source: BEA via Haver Analytics Months plotted: Jan Jul 2016

44 DOT PLOT COMPARISON March 2016 vs June 2016 Percent Mar 2016 Projections Jun 2016 Projections Source: FOMC Projections, March 2016 and June 2016

45 MARKET-IMPLIED PROBABILITY OF A RATE HIKE Based on CME Fed Funds Futures Contracts (as of Sep. 2, 2016) Probability 100% 80% 60% 59.0 % 40% 40.1 % 36.0 % 20% 0% Sep Nov Dec Mar 2016 Apr 2016 May 2016 Jun 2016 Jul 2016 Aug 2016 Sep 2016 Source: Bloomberg Days plotted: Mar. 7, Sep. 2, 2016 Shading represents FOMC meeting dates.

46 SUMMARY Private forecasters expect GDP growth to accelerate in the second-half of 2016 and to return to around 2% next year Excluding energy-related industries, employment growth continues to be steady in the nation and in our region Home price growth will likely be below average in the nearterm in regions with larger REO volumes to clear Recent migration trends point to slower growth for many of our communities

47 Report on Economic and Financial Developments Gary A. Wagner * Regional Economic Advisor * The views expressed today are my own and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia or the Federal Reserve System.

48 71 st Annual Field Meeting Hershey FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA

49 MORTGAGE DELINQUENCY RATES Chambersburg-Waynesboro MSA Percentage of active loans (Seasonally Adjusted): maximum and most recent observation labeled 4% 4.1 % 3.6 % 4.0 % 3% 3.2 % 2% 1.4 % 1.6 % 1.4 % 1% 1.3 % 1.3 % 0.8 % 0% Jan 2000 Jan 2005 Jan 2010 Jan 2015 Source: McDash-HMDA via RADAR Months plotted: Aug Aug DPD 60DPD 90DPD Foreclosure REO

50 MORTGAGE DELINQUENCY RATES Gettysburg MSA Percentage of active loans (Seasonally Adjusted): maximum and most recent observation labeled 5% 4% 4.3 % 3.6 % 3.5 % 3% 3.1 % 2% 1.6 % 1.1 % 1.6 % 1.1 % 1% 1.2 % 0.9 % 0% Jan 2000 Jan 2005 Jan 2010 Jan 2015 Source: McDash-HMDA via RADAR Months plotted: Jul Mar DPD 60DPD 90DPD Foreclosure REO

51 MORTGAGE DELINQUENCY RATES Harrisburg-Carlisle MSA Percentage of active loans (Seasonally Adjusted): maximum and most recent observation labeled 3.5% 3.0% 2.8 % 3.1 % 2.8 % 2.5% 2.4 % 2.0% 1.6 % 1.5% 1.0 % 1.0% 1.2 % 0.9 % 0.8 % 0.5% 0.8 % 0.0% Jan 2000 Jan 2005 Jan 2010 Jan 2015 Source: McDash-HMDA via RADAR Months plotted: Jan Jul DPD 60DPD 90DPD Foreclosure REO

52 MORTGAGE DELINQUENCY RATES Lancaster MSA Percentage of active loans (Seasonally Adjusted): maximum and most recent observation labeled 3.0% 2.5% 2.9 % 2.5 % 2.4 % 2.6 % 2.0% 1.5% 1.2 % 1.0% 1.1 % 0.7 % 1.1 % 0.9 % 0.5% 0.7 % 0.0% Jan 2000 Jan 2005 Jan 2010 Jan 2015 Source: McDash-HMDA via RADAR Months plotted: Jan Jul DPD 60DPD 90DPD Foreclosure REO

53 MORTGAGE DELINQUENCY RATES Lebanon MSA Percentage of active loans (Seasonally Adjusted): maximum and most recent observation labeled 4% 3.7 % 3% 3.0 % 3.0 % 2.6 % 2% 1% 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.1 % 1.4 % 1.0 % 1.0 % 0% Jan 2000 Jan 2005 Jan 2010 Jan 2015 Source: McDash-HMDA via RADAR Months plotted: Jan Jun DPD 60DPD 90DPD Foreclosure REO

54 MORTGAGE DELINQUENCY RATES York-Hanover MSA Percentage of active loans (Seasonally Adjusted): maximum and most recent observation labeled 4% 3.7 % 3.4 % 3% 3.4 % 3.0 % 2% 1% 1.5 % 1.9 % 1.1 % 1.5 % 1.1 % 1.1 % 0% Jan 2000 Jan 2005 Jan 2010 Jan 2015 Source: McDash-HMDA via RADAR Months plotted: Jan Jul DPD 60DPD 90DPD Foreclosure REO

55 TOP ORIGINS AND DESTINATIONS BY COUNTY Chambersburg-Waynesboro MSA, change in total AGI, to/from outside of the MSA, OUTFLOW WITHIN STATE OUT-OF-STATE Destination Total AGI (000 USD) Average AGI (USD) Destination Total AGI (000 USD) Average AGI (USD) Cumberland County, PA 90,017 35,721 Washington County, MD 81,307 38,589 Adams County, PA 26,520 34,352 Frederick County, MD 25,483 44,395 York County, PA 16,532 38,092 Berkeley County, WV 17,269 40,633 Dauphin County, PA 11,034 34,056 Montgomery County, MD 5,586 47,339 Lancaster County, PA 10,591 39,519 Fairfax County, VA 4,803 58,573 Total Outflow 197,726 36,187 Total Outflow 162,981 40,492 INFLOW WITHIN STATE OUT-OF-STATE Origin Total AGI (000 USD) Average AGI (USD) Origin Total AGI (000 USD) Average AGI (USD) Cumberland County, PA 89,256 35,846 Washington County, MD 121,469 41,973 Adams County, PA 34,811 36,186 Frederick County, MD 40,054 47,178 York County, PA 17,944 38,756 Montgomery County, MD 17,648 76,069 Dauphin County, PA 11,212 37,249 Berkeley County, WV 12,847 39,049 Huntingdon County, PA 8,810 36,107 Fairfax County, VA 8,677 93,301 Total Inflow 206,784 36,696 Total Inflow 235,776 46,249 Source: IRS

56 TOP ORIGINS AND DESTINATIONS BY COUNTY Gettysburg MSA, change in total AGI, to/from outside of the MSA, WITHIN STATE OUTFLOW OUT-OF-STATE Destination Total AGI (000 USD) Average AGI (USD) Destination Total AGI (000 USD) Average AGI (USD) York County, PA 194,627 34,607 Frederick County, MD 25,474 50,644 Cumberland County, PA 37,679 37,717 Carroll County, MD 23,035 36,680 Franklin County, PA 34,811 36,186 Baltimore County, MD 9,632 40,471 Dauphin County, PA 11,193 38,071 Montgomery County, MD 6,883 50,985 Lancaster County, PA 7,538 33,502 Washington County, MD 5,539 37,426 Total Outflow 301,450 35,386 Total Outflow 87,731 42,444 WITHIN STATE INFLOW OUT-OF-STATE Origin Total AGI (000 USD) Average AGI (USD) Origin Total AGI (000 USD) Average AGI (USD) York County, PA 188,787 36,118 Carroll County, MD 58,007 47,861 Cumberland County, PA 32,389 42,173 Montgomery County, MD 48, ,214 Franklin County, PA 26,520 34,352 Frederick County, MD 39,640 52,995 Dauphin County, PA 10,923 39,865 Baltimore County, MD 18,077 49,936 Lancaster County, PA 8,620 41,845 Anne Arundel County, MD 11,046 62,407 Total Inflow 281,054 37,211 Total Inflow 200,865 63,265 Source: IRS

57 TOP ORIGINS AND DESTINATIONS BY COUNTY Harrisburg-Carlisle MSA, change in total AGI, to/from outside of the MSA, WITHIN STATE OUTFLOW OUT-OF-STATE Destination Total AGI (000 USD) Average AGI (USD) Destination Total AGI (000 USD) Average AGI (USD) York County, PA 399,170 44,156 Fairfax County, VA 39,904 71,899 Lebanon County, PA 199,077 45,796 Montgomery County, MD 24,931 53,963 Lancaster County, PA 198,448 43,405 Maricopa County, AZ 23,222 67,310 Franklin County, PA 102,887 35,924 New York County, NY 20,810 46,975 Philadelphia County, PA 59,718 34,027 Baltimore County, MD 20,472 47,944 Total Outflow 1,446,560 42,918 Total Outflow 581,162 47,876 INFLOW WITHIN STATE OUT-OF-STATE Origin Total AGI (000 USD) Average AGI (USD) Origin Total AGI (000 USD) Average AGI (USD) York County, PA 375,433 40,991 Fairfax County, VA 36,662 82,202 Lancaster County, PA 176,716 39,071 Montgomery County, MD 23,152 69,526 Lebanon County, PA 163,856 39,994 Baltimore County, MD 20,515 48,729 Franklin County, PA 102,640 35,552 New York County, NY 18,619 63,764 Adams County, PA 50,055 37,579 Maricopa County, AZ 16,395 54,833 Total Inflow 1,427,770 40,477 Total Inflow 534,574 50,878 Source: IRS

58 TOP ORIGINS AND DESTINATIONS BY COUNTY Lancaster MSA, change in total AGI, to/from outside of the MSA, OUTFLOW WITHIN STATE OUT-OF-STATE Destination Total AGI (000 USD) Average AGI (USD) Destination Total AGI (000 USD) Average AGI (USD) York County, PA 162,101 38,231 Sussex County, DE 19,195 56,958 Chester County, PA 145,776 41,203 New Castle County, DE 18,488 39,845 Berks County, PA 129,146 44,092 Baltimore County, MD 12,998 43,183 Dauphin County, PA 118,146 37,435 Cecil County, MD 12,937 40,940 Lebanon County, PA 110,927 45,092 New York County, NY 12,650 35,938 Total Outflow 1,026,023 40,282 Total Outflow 472,521 41,057 INFLOW WITHIN STATE OUT-OF-STATE Origin Total AGI (000 USD) Average AGI (USD) Origin Total AGI (000 USD) Average AGI (USD) Chester County, PA 198,450 41,805 New Castle County, DE 25,130 50,563 York County, PA 162,485 39,630 Fairfax County, VA 16,488 79,652 Dauphin County, PA 145,345 44,111 Cecil County, MD 15,393 50,970 Berks County, PA 132,843 40,207 Baltimore County, MD 14,994 54,130 Lebanon County, PA 94,214 39,972 Suffolk County, NY 13,449 51,137 Total Inflow 1,156,045 42,108 Total Inflow 485,500 48,526 Source: IRS

59 TOP ORIGINS AND DESTINATIONS BY COUNTY Lebanon MSA, change in total AGI, to/from outside of the MSA, OUTFLOW WITHIN STATE OUT-OF-STATE Destination Total AGI (000 USD) Average AGI (USD) Destination Total AGI (000 USD) Average AGI (USD) Dauphin County, PA 135,953 39,998 Sussex County, DE 3,383 59,351 Lancaster County, PA 94,214 39,972 Bronx County, NY 2,190 19,909 Berks County, PA 61,113 37,128 Kings County, NY 1,579 19,024 Cumberland County, PA 24,179 40,164 New York County, NY 1,575 35,000 Schuylkill County, PA 19,650 33,705 Fairfax County, VA 1,332 55,500 Total Outflow 409,681 38,678 Total Outflow 20,151 31,734 INFLOW WITHIN STATE OUT-OF-STATE Origin Total AGI (000 USD) Average AGI (USD) Origin Total AGI (000 USD) Average AGI (USD) Dauphin County, PA 171,789 46,644 Bronx County, NY 3,679 16,207 Lancaster County, PA 110,927 45,092 Kings County, NY 3,534 18,406 Berks County, PA 72,780 35,058 Queens County, NY 1,894 22,548 Cumberland County, PA 23,917 41,595 New York County, NY 1,769 18,819 Schuylkill County, PA 18,824 33,317 Orange County, FL ,973 Total Inflow 480,130 42,202 Total Inflow 17,787 22,630 Source: IRS

60 TOP ORIGINS AND DESTINATIONS BY COUNTY York-Hanover MSA, change in total AGI, to/from outside of the MSA, OUTFLOW WITHIN STATE OUT-OF-STATE Destination Total AGI (000 USD) Average AGI (USD) Destination Total AGI (000 USD) Average AGI (USD) Cumberland County, PA 248,022 43,383 Baltimore County, MD 121,656 50,945 Adams County, PA 188,787 36,118 Harford County, MD 49,448 43,915 Lancaster County, PA 162,485 39,630 Pinellas County, FL 44, ,855 Dauphin County, PA 114,342 37,136 Carroll County, MD 41,243 42,562 Philadelphia County, PA 25,880 32,310 Baltimore city, MD 34,962 38,462 Total Outflow 968,431 39,273 Total Outflow 718,302 49,934 INFLOW WITHIN STATE OUT-OF-STATE Origin Total AGI (000 USD) Average AGI (USD) Origin Total AGI (000 USD) Average AGI (USD) Cumberland County, PA 252,417 46,104 Baltimore County, MD 244,243 55,636 Adams County, PA 194,627 34,607 Carroll County, MD 94,633 46,321 Lancaster County, PA 162,101 38,231 Harford County, MD 85,512 49,978 Dauphin County, PA 132,896 41,543 Baltimore city, MD 64,342 45,860 Montgomery County, PA 20,136 41,543 Anne Arundel County, MD 49,275 57,767 Total Inflow 975,281 39,794 Total Inflow 828,964 49,399 Source: IRS