Update On Mortgage Originations, Delinquency and Foreclosures In Maryland

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1 Update On Mortgage Originations, Delinquency and Foreclosures In Maryland

2 The Reinvestment Fund builds wealth and opportunity for low-wealth people and places through the promotion of socially and environmentally responsible development.

3 This is a presentation of some of the findings from a soon-to-be-released study by The Reinvestment Fund (TRF) on behalf of the Baltimore Homeownership Preservation Coalition (BHPC) BHPC is a coalition of non-profit practitioners, public agencies, private funders, industry professionals and lenders who work collaboratively to develop and implement key programs and policies to preserve and increase the assets of families and Baltimore communities. TRF is a national innovator in capitalizing distressed communities and stimulating economic growth for low- and moderate-income families. The research was funded by Associated Black Charities, The Annie E. Casey Foundation and The Goldseker Foundation

4 Summary of U.S. Joint Economic Committee (JEC) Report 2 million subprime mortgages are estimated to go into foreclosure between the 1 st quarter of 2007 and the 4 th quarter of 2009 In Maryland, an estimated 25,057 subprime mortgages will go into foreclosure over that time period (14.9% of current outstanding subprime loans) $2.73 billion estimated cumulative loss of property value in Maryland with a property tax loss of $19.1 million Using the JEC as a basis for calculation, TRF conservatively estimates that there will be a $122 million loss of property value to Baltimore homeowners and $310 million loss of property value to Prince George s County homeowners over that same time period

5 TRF s Data Sources Mortgage originations Home Mortgage Disclosure Act ( HMDA ), Mortgage delinquencies McDash Analytics, LLC, & Mortgage Bankers Association of America National Delinquency Survey Mortgage foreclosures: Baltimore City Official court filings via University of Baltimore, Montgomery County Official court filings via County, Prince George s County RealtyTrac, Inc., 2007 (part) Property sale & transaction history First American CoreLogic, Inc. [Realquest Pro] Demographic U.S. Census, Claritas, Inc., Policymap.com, Maryland Association of Realtors, Bureau of Economic Analysis

6 Real Estate as a Percent of State Gross Domestic Product % DE % RE DC % RE PA % RE VA % RE MD % RE 16.00% 14.00% Percent of GDP 12.00% 10.00% 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% Source: Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis Year

7 Percent of Purchase Loans Originated by Rate Spread At the same time that prices were escalating, buyers were increasingly using high cost loans to buy their homes. In 2004, High cost loans comprised 13.4% of the purchase loans originated to homeowners; by 2006, high cost loans accounted for 33.2% of the lending activity. Source: HMDA 2004, 2005, Number of Purchase Loans Originated by Rate Spread for Owner Occupied Purchase Loans* 13.4% 29.7% +3% or More Less than 3% 32.3% *N.B. Number represents total number of loans. If a purchase used more than one loan (80/20 loans etc.) both loans are counted in this figure.

8 Prevalence of Adjustable Rate Loans by Type of Loan; 2nd Quarter % 55.7% 52.4% 50.0% 49.6% 46.0% 40.0% 39.2% Pct of Loans 30.0% 20.0% 22.6% 30.0% 34.2% 20.4% 18.7% 17.4% 10.0% 3.4% 6.9% 8.6% 3.7% 8.4% 9.4% 5.7% 0.0% DE DC PA VA MD US State Source: Mortgage Bankers Association Pct ARM of Prime Pct ARM of Subprime Pct ARM of FHA

9 Percent of Loans that are Non-Current * Percent of Loans All Loans Prime Sub-Prime Fixed Prime Fixed Sub-Prime Fixed Source: TRF analysis of McDash Analytics, LLC (Sept. 2007, 2006, 2005 and 2004) Loan Type ARM Prime ARM Sub-Prime ARM * Non-Current is the total number of loans that are more than 30 days delinquent or in foreclosure proceedings.

10 Percent of Owner Occupied Households at by Cost Burden % Percent of Household Income Spent of Housing Related Costs Under 30% % 50% & Over 6.41% 10.18% 7.38% 6.33% 7.21% 80.00% 12.91% 14.40% 13.59% 14.14% 15.78% Percent of Units 60.00% 40.00% 80.68% 75.41% 79.03% 79.54% 77.00% 20.00% 0.00% Source: American Community Survey 2000 DE DC PA VA MD State

11 Percent of Owner Occupied Households at by Cost Burden 2006 Percent of Household Income Spent of Housing Related Costs Under 30% % 50% & Over % 9.38% 12.59% 9.77% 9.63% 10.52% 80.00% 15.92% 20.20% 17.62% 18.77% 19.88% Percent of Units 60.00% 40.00% 74.70% 67.21% 72.61% 71.60% 69.60% 20.00% 0.00% Source: American Community Survey 2006 DE DC PA VA MD State

12 Percent Change in Housing Cost Burden, % 50.0% Percent of Household Income Spent of Housing Related Costs Under 30% % 50% & Over 40.0% Percent Change 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 23.3% 46.3% 40.3% 23.7% 32.5% 29.6% 32.8% 52.2% 26.0% 45.9% 0.0% -10.0% -8.0% DE DC -8.8% PA VA MD -12.2% -11.1% -10.6% -20.0% Source: American Community Survey 2000; 2006 State

13 Change in Median Sales Price Most Populous Counties in Maryland $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 Median Price $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 Source: Association of Realtors $ Montgomery Balt Cnty Prince George's Balt City Anne Year Arundel Howard Harford Frederick Maryland

14 Percent of Purchase Loans with 3%+ Rate Spread 2006 Source: HMDA 2006; Claritas 2006

15 Percent of Purchase Loans with 3%+ Rate Spread 2006 Source: HMDA 2006; Claritas 2006

16 Percent of Purchase Transactions with Multiple Loans 2006 Source: TRF analysis of HMDA 2006; Claritas 2006

17 Percent of Purchase Transactions with Multiple Loans 2006 Source: TRF analysis of HMDA 2006; Claritas 2006

18 Percent of Non Owner Occupant Purchase Loans 2006 Source: HMDA 2006; Claritas 2006

19 Percent of Non Owner Occupant Purchase Loans 2006 Source: HMDA 2006; Claritas 2006

20 Percent of All Prime Loans Non-Current September 2007 Source: TRF analysis of McDash Analytics, LLC (Sept. 2007, 2006, 2005 and 2004) * Non-Current is the total number of loans that are more than 30 days delinquent, or in foreclosure proceedings.

21 Percent of All Subprime Loans Non-Current September 2007 Source: TRF analysis of McDash Analytics, LLC (Sept. 2007, 2006, 2005 and 2004) * Non-Current is the total number of loans that are more than 30 days delinquent, or in foreclosure proceedings.

22 Percent of Subprime Loans Non-Current September 2007 Source: TRF analysis of McDash Analytics, LLC * Non-Current is the total number of loans that are more than 30 days delinquent, or in foreclosure proceedings.

23 Percent Change in Subprime Loans Non-Current 9/2006 9/2007 Source: TRF analysis of McDash Analytics, LLC (Sept. 2007, 2006, 2005 and 2004) * Non-Current is the total number of loans that are more than 30 days delinquent, or in foreclosure proceedings.

24 Percent Change in Subprime Loans Non-Current 9/2006 9/2007 Source: TRF analysis of McDash Analytics, LLC * Non-Current is the total number of loans that are more than 30 days delinquent, or in foreclosure proceedings.

25 Some general facts about existing loans in Baltimore City and Prince George s County relative to the rest of Maryland Baltimore City and Prince George s County tend to have a lower percentage of fixed rate loans and a higher percentage of adjustable rate loans Baltimore City and Prince George s County tend to have a higher percentage of subprime loans; both ARM and fixed rate The percentage of originations that are subprime in both Baltimore and Prince George s has risen substantially between 2004 and 2006 Baltimore City and Prince George s County have higher rates of non-current loans for both prime and subprime loans Source: TRF analysis of McDash Analytics, LLC (Sept. 2007, 2006, 2005 and 2004)

26 Some general facts about existing loans in Baltimore City and Prince George s County relative to the rest of Maryland The average credit score for both prime and subprime borrowers in Baltimore City and PG County are lower than the Statewide Average The average interest rate of existing prime and subprime loans in Baltimore City and Prince George s County are higher: 6.3% for prime and 7.8% for subprime loans in Baltimore City 6.4% for prime and 7.5% for subprime loans in PG County vs 6.1% for prime and 7.4% for subprime loans Statewide Source: TRF analysis of McDash Analytics, LLC (Sept. 2007, 2006, 2005 and 2004)

27 Some general facts about Baltimore City Foreclosures In 2005, the percent of loans in foreclosure that were adjustable rate loans was 17.9%; that percent rose to 32.4% in % of all loans in foreclosure were for the purchase of a home. This is slightly higher than the figure reported for earlier years (62%) The time from origination to foreclosure is getting shorter. For 2005 foreclosures, the average time was 4.8 years; for 2006, the average time dropped to 3.6 years. Source: TRF analysis of McDash Analytics, LLC (Sept. 2007, 2006, 2005 and 2004)

28 Some general facts about Baltimore City Foreclosures 31% of all loans in foreclosure for the purchase of a home involved piggyback second loans. 13.6% involved seconds that were conventional while another 17.4% had government-related seconds. Of all loans that went into foreclosure in 2005, 45.6% were FHAinsured; in 2006, that percentage dropped to 35.7%. Loan-to-price ratios remain unchanged, averaging 99.9% The amount of time from origination to foreclosure is greater for FHA loans that it is for conventional loans Source: TRF analysis of McDash Analytics, LLC (Sept. 2007, 2006, 2005 and 2004)

29 Year of Origination of Loans in Foreclosure by Type of Loan; Baltimore City Number with FHA Non FHA Loans

30 Baltimore City Foreclosure Filings Estimate of Investor vs Owner Occupied Foreclosures Number of Filings If Rate Remains Constant to Q1 + Q2 Rate Investor Fcls Ow ner Occ Fcls Source: TRF analysis of BNIA/ University of Baltimore JFI Data Q1+Q2!st Half Year 2007

31 Baltimore City Foreclosure Filings 1/2005-6/2007 and Household Income Source: BNIA/ University of Baltimore JFI

32 Baltimore City Percent Owner Occupied Properties in Foreclosure by Neighborhood Racial Composition % Percent Owner Occupied Foreclosures Percent of All Foreclosure Filings that are Owner Occupied Properties 95.0% 90.0% 85.0% 80.0% 75.0% 70.0% 65.0% <25% African American HH 35-49% African American HH 50-74% African American HH % African American HH City Total 60.0% Source: TRF analysis of BNIA/ University of Year Baltimore JFI; Claritas 2006

33 Prince George s County Foreclosure Filings 1/2007-8/2007 and Household Income Source: RealtyTrac

34 4000 Montgomery County Foreclosure Filings Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Number of Filings Year Number of Filings 0 Q1 00 Q2 00 Q3 00 Q4 00 Q1 01 Q2 01 Q3 01 Q4 01 Q1 02 Q2 02 Q3 02 Q4 02 Q1 03 Q2 03 Q3 03 Q4 03 Q1 04 Q2 04 Q3 04 Q4 04 Q1 05 Q2 05 Q3 05 Q4 05 Q1 06 Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Source: Montgomery County Circuit Court Quarter

35 Montgomery County Foreclosure Filings By Loan Type 3500 OTHER 3000 COMMERCIAL NOTE TAX SALE 2500 HOMEOWNERS ASSOCIATION LEIN Number of Filings EQUITY LINE OF CREDIT FIXED/ADJUSTABLE RATE BALLOON/ INTEREST ONLY/ INTEREST FIRST NOTE FIXED/ADJUSTABLE RATE NOTE (2/28, 3/27 etc.) ADJUSTABLE RATE BALLOON/ INTEREST ONLY/ INTEREST FIRST NOTE ADJUSTABLE RATE NOTE FIXED RATE BALLOON/ INTEREST ONLY/ INTEREST FIRST NOTE FIXED RATE NOTE Year

36 Montgomery County Foreclosure Filings and Household Income

37 Montgomery County Foreclosure Filings and Household Income

38 For copies of this presentation, please visit:

39 In our use of HMDA data, TRF considers any loan with a reportable rate spread (i.e, 3 or more percentage points) as equivalent to subprime Maturities Yield Date 30-Year 1/15/ /15/ /15/ /15/ /15/ /15/ /15/ /15/ /15/ /15/ /15/ /15/ Table excerpted from the FFIEC ( ) The federal government (Regulation C HMDA) requires that lenders report a rate spread if the originated loan has an annual percentage rate ( APR ) that exceeds the comparable Treasury Security at the time of origination by 3 or more percentage points on a first-lien loan. EXAMPLE: in June of 2006 A loan with an APR of as high as 8% (or lower) would show NO reported rate spread. A loan with an APR of 9% would have a reported rate spread of A loan with an APR of 10.5% would have a reported rate spread of 5.37.

40 Source: Boxwood Means Inc Dollar Change in Median Sales Price

41 Percent Of Loans That Are Subprime By Race Of Borrower; 2006 Percent of All Loans and Number of Sub Prime Loans by Race of Borrower STATE OF MARYLAND Total White Black Other Purchase 33.2% 25.6% 20, % 20, % 2,049 Refinance 34.1% 25.8% 25, % 28, % 1,444 BALTIMORE CITY Total White Black Other Purchase 42.5% 26.8% % % Refinance 52.0% 36.4% % % BALTIMORE COUNTY Total White Black Other Purchase 30.3% 22.8% % % Refinance 36.8% 29.3% % % PRINCE GEORGE'S Total White Black Other Purchase 51.3% 51.5% % % Refinance 58.6% 64.4% % % MONTGOMERY Total White Black Other Purchase 29.0% 28.4% % % Refinance 23.3% 20.6% % % FREDERICK Total White Black Other Purchase 25.9% 22.2% % % Refinance 24.6% 21.8% % % CHARLES Total White Black Other Purchase 39.7% 26.1% % % Refinance 35.2% 25.1% % % HARFORD Total White Black Other Purchase 23.8% 18.2% % % Refinance 30.6% 26.1% % % Source: TRF analysis of Home Mortgage Disclosure Act, 2006 (HMDA) HOWARD Total White Black Other Purchase 22.4% 15.8% % % Refinance 22.2% 16.9% % %

42 Consistently across the state, higher percentage minority neighborhoods have higher rates of subprime loans Percent Of Loans That Are Subprime By Racial Composition Of Area; 2006 Percent Minority by Census Tract STATE OF MARYLAND < 10% 10-24% 25-49% 50% or More Purchase 20.2% 22.5% 37.2% 49.0% Refinance 25.6% 26.9% 34.7% 44.2% BALTIMORE CITY < 10% 10-24% 25-49% 50% or More Purchase 26.2% 23.6% 42.7% 51.4% Refinance 32.7% 34.5% 49.3% 58.4% BALTIMORE COUNTY < 10% 10-24% 25-49% 50% or More Purchase 22.0% 25.5% 35.0% 46.0% Refinance 29.1% 33.0% 39.2% 48.6% PRINCE GEORGE'S < 10% 10-24% 25-49% 50% or More Purchase NA 35.0% 44.9% 53.1% Refinance NA 26.3% 36.5% 42.5% MONTGOMERY < 10% 10-24% 25-49% 50% or More Purchase 10.6% 15.0% 34.3% 37.5% Refinance 17.1% 14.8% 25.3% 29.3% FREDERICK < 10% 10-24% 25-49% 50% or More Purchase 18.3% 27.7% NA NA Refinance 21.3% 27.0% NA NA CHARLES < 10% 10-24% 25-49% 50% or More Purchase NA 27.3% 44.0% NA Refinance NA 27.6% 39.8% NA HARFORD < 10% 10-24% 25-49% 50% or More Purchase 15.4% 26.6% 43.9% NA Refinance 22.1% 35.9% 49.1% NA Source: TRF analysis of Home Mortgage Disclosure Act, 2006 (HMDA) HOWARD < 10% 10-24% 25-49% 50% or More Purchase 8.6% 14.5% 29.8% 40.5% Refinance 10.8% 16.3% 28.8% 31.5%

43 Montgomery County Foreclosure Filings and Household Income

44 Montgomery County Foreclosure Filings and Household Income

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