NonProfit Speakers Series. The Economic Outlook for The Washington Metropolitan Area
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1 /3/ NonProfit Speakers Series The Economic Outlook for The Washington Metropolitan Area Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University uary 3, % 6 U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 7 Forecast Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics uary 8, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
2 /3/ U.S. Leading Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis U.S. Coincident Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis
3 /3/ (s) Annual Change in Payroll Jobs US Month-Over-Year = + 3.M U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector 3 Ranked by Size in Educ & Health Svcs Prof. & Bus. Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Manufacturing Financial Construction Wlse Trade Other Services Transp. & Util. Federal Govt. Information -7 (s) Total =, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
4 /3/ U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector Nov Ranked by Size in Educ & Health Svcs Prof. & Bus. Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Manufacturing Financial Construction Wlse Trade Other Services Transp. & Util. Federal Govt. Information (s) Total = Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis U.S. Unemployment Rate % =.6 IHS FCST Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), IHS Economics uary 8, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
5 /3/ (s) Initial Claims for Unemployment -Present -Week Moving Average Source: Department of Labor $/barrel 8 6 Oil Prices $ per barrel Forecast > > > > > > > Source: IHS Economics uary 8, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
6 /3/ Consumer Confidence 8 6 Expectations Current Situation Nov-9 Nov- Nov- Nov- Nov-3 Nov- Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3 - % Consumer Prices - 9 Forecast > > > > > Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Economics uary 8, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 6
7 /3/ Interest Rates Forecast > > > > Yr -Yr Treas Fed Source: IHS Economics uary 8, U.S. Economic Performance % Forecast > > > > GDP Residential Fixed Non-Res: Structures State & Local Federal Bus. Inv.-Eq & Sfwr Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics uary 8, GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7
8 /3/ The Washington Economy: From Recession to Federal Cutbacks Summary of Federal Spending Trends in the Washington Metropolitan Area, - Federal Procurement Outlays declined $3.3 billion or 6.% between FY and FY 3. Federal employment has declined since peaking in July, losing,8 jobs or.6%. Federal payroll declined by $. billion or.7% between FY and FY and will continue to decline as the workforce shrinks and older workers retire and are replaced by younger workers. GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8
9 /3/ WMSA Payroll Job Change: Private Sector The Great Recession and Recovery Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. 8-Feb Feb -Nov (s) Total -78 Total The GRP* Effects of Private Sector Job Change in the Washington Metropolitan Area 8-Nov. (in billions of $s) Job Change Total GRP Value - 77,7 - $8,67,3, +, + $7,83,8, + 6,7 - $983,, Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis *Gross Regional Product $6,99 per job contribution to GRP $3,38 per job contribution to GRP GMU Center for Regional Analysis 9
10 /3/ (s) Average Wage and Job Change Washington Metro Area /-/ Job Change (left axis) $9.. Professional & Business Services 8.6 $. Education & Health Services 3 Wage (right axis) 8. $. Leisure & Hospitality (s of 3 $s $ $9 $8 $7 $6 $ $ $3 $ $ $ Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (s of 3 $s) 7. Average Wages, Washington Metro Area Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis
11 /3/ The Household Income Effects of Structural Change in the Washington Metropolitan Area Jurisdiction Median HH Income 3* Change from 9* District (DC) $67,7 $,99 Frederick Cty 8,38 - $,86 Montgomery Cty 98,36 - $, Prince George s Cty 7, - $,6 Arlington County, - $,67 Fairfax County,79 - $9 Loudoun County 6,768 - $7,83 Prince Wm County 9,68 - $,3 Alexandria City 86,77 $,98 Total Metro Area $9,9 - $,87 Source: U.S. Census, ACS -Year; GMU Center for Regional Analysis *in 3 dollars 6.% Largest Metro Area Job Markets GRP Percent Change: 3.%.% Washington -.8% 3.%.%.%.% -.% -.% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis
12 /3/ (s) Largest Job Markets Job Change: Nov 3 Nov Washington +8,9.%.% Largest Job Markets Job Change: Nov 3 Nov Washington +.6% 3.%.%.%.% -.% GMU Center for Regional Analysis
13 /3/ Annual Job Change Washington MSA, - Annual Data (s) Annual Month over Year Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Nov 3 Nov Washington MSA (s) Total = 8,9 3 3 (.) (.) GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
14 /3/ Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Oct Nov Washington MSA - - (s) Total = 8,6 3 (.) (.) Professional & Business Services Washington MSA (s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year Sep Jun Mar Sep Jun Mar Sep Jun Mar Sep Jun Mar Sep Jun Mar Sep Jun Mar 8 Nov- Total: 78. GMU Center for Regional Analysis
15 /3/ Federal Government Washington MSA (s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year Sep Jun Mar Sep Jun Mar Sep Jun Mar Sep Jun Mar Sep Jun Mar Sep Jun Mar 8 Nov- Total: 36.7 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Nov 3 Nov District of Columbia - (s) Total,6 3 (.) (.) GMU Center for Regional Analysis
16 /3/ Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Oct Nov District of Columbia - - (s) Total, (.) (.) Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Nov 3 Nov Suburban Maryland (s) Total,3 3 3 (.) (.) GMU Center for Regional Analysis 6
17 /3/ Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Oct Nov Suburban Maryland - (s) Total 3,8 3 (.) (.) Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Nov 3 Nov Northern Virginia (s) Total 6, 3 (.) (.) GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7
18 /3/ Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Oct Nov Northern Virginia - (s) Total 3,6 3 (.) (.) Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area, DC.8 U.S..7 SMD. MSA NVA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted) GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8
19 /3/ Housing Market Trends in the Washington Metro Area Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes Month-Over-Year, MSA = +6.% Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis. Total monthly inventory includes listings active at the end of the month plus sales during the month. GMU Center for Regional Analysis 9
20 /3/ Total Listings Per Sale Each Year - LDN PW ARL PG DC MONT FFX Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis (s) 3 3 Median House Sales Price Washington MSA $386.K Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis
21 /3/ % Average Sales Price Percent Change Washington MSA All Housing Types Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Average Sales Price Percent Change Metro Area Single Family Detached % Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis % : DC = -3.7 SM = -., NV = +3.3 GMU Center for Regional Analysis
22 /3/ % Average Sales Price Percent Change Metro Area Single Family Attached Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis % : DC = +., SM = +7., NV = +.6 % Average Sales Price Percent Change Metro Area Condos Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis % : DC = +6.7, SM = +6., NV = +8. GMU Center for Regional Analysis
23 /3/ Comparison of YoY Change in Closed Sales and Listings Nov Sales Listings <$K $-399K $-99K $6-799K $8-999K $M+ Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis,, 3, 3,,,,, Washington MSA Building Permits, 3-Month Mvg Avg Source: Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
24 /3/,, 3, 3,,,,,, - New Building Permits for Privately Owned Residential Units, WMSA : 38K 3: K Building Type: + Units - Units SF YTD :.K Source: Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis **Through September GRP and Jobs Forecast for Washington Metropolitan Area: -9 GMU Center for Regional Analysis
25 /3/ % Economic Outlook (GRP), 7-9 Washington Area and Sub-State Areas (Annual % Change) SM NV MSA DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: uary Employment Change in the WMSA by Sub-State Area (s) 3 * D.C Sub. MD No. VA REGION Average Annual Change 99- = 3,7 *average through months; rebenchmarked jobs data available in March Source: BLS, IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (uary ) NOTE: The regional totals do not include Jefferson, WV. GMU Center for Regional Analysis
26 /3/ % U.S. GDP and Washington Area GRP 7 9 (Annual % Change) U.S. - Washington - Source: IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: uary Thank You & Questions cra.gmu.edu GMU Center for Regional Analysis 6
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