The Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce. The Driving Forces Behind Fairfax County s Future Growth
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1 1/22/214 The Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce The Driving Forces Behind Fairfax County s Future Growth Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University October 23, 214 The Washington Metropolitan Area from The International Space Station, January 2, 213 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1
2 1/22/214 The Washington Metropolitan Area in 223 (population and employment in millions, GRP in billions of 214 $s) Metric Change Population Employment Gross Regional Product (GRP) $478.5 $ Source: IHS Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2
3 1/22/214 The Washington Area Economy s Competitive Position 1 st in percent of residents with graduate or professional degrees 3 rd in number of workers per household 2 nd in labor force participation rate 1 st in median household income 2 nd for traffic congestion 2 nd in the number of square feet of total office space 5 th largest economy among U.S. metropolitan areas but only 7 th in population $ Billions Federal Spending Washington MSA Total & Procurement Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
4 1/22/214 Share of Washington Area Economy % 45% Northern Virginia 4% 35% Suburban MD 3% 25% D.C. 2% 15% 1% Growth in Jobs, s District of Columbia 394 Suburban yland 83 Northern Virginia Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 4
5 1/22/214 Structural Change and Recent Trends in the Washington Metropolitan Area Economy (s) 15 Annual Job Change MOTYC Washington MSA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5
6 1/22/214 $ Billions Federal Procurement in the Washington Metro Area, TOTAL = $1,96.4 Billion Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report and USAspending.gov The Economic Performance of yland, DC and the Commonwealth of Virginia in 213 State GSP Growth US Ranking US 1.84% Virginia.6% 48 th yland.1% 49 th DC* -.49% 51 st WMSA -.8% 33 th ** Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis *DC s economy also declined.46% in 212. **out of 381 metro areas GMU Center for Regional Analysis 6
7 1/22/214 WMSA Payroll Job Change: Private Sector The Great Recession and Recovery Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Aug 28-Feb 21 Feb (s) Total -178 Total Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis The GRP* Effects of Job Change in the Washington Metropolitan Area, Aug 8-t 14 (in billions of current year $s) Job Change Total GRP Value - 177,7 - $26,76,932, , + $22,872,254, 2 Net Effect + 39,3 - $3,888,678, Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis *Gross Regional Product 1 $15,596 per job contribution to GRP 2 $15,42 per job contribution to GRP GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7
8 1/22/214 The Household Income Effects of Structural Change in the Washington Metropolitan Area Jurisdiction Median HH Income 213* Change from 29* District (DC) $67,575 $2,919 Frederick Cty 84,38 - $8,215 Montgomery Cty 98,326 - $5,856 Prince George s Cty 72,52 - $4,6 Arlington County 12,51 - $1,675 Fairfax County 111,79 - $249 Loudoun County 116,768 - $7,283 Prince Wm County 95,268 - $2,234 Alexandria City 86,775 $2,985 Total Metro Area $9,149 - $2,287 Source: U.S. Census, ACS 1-Year; GMU Center for Regional Analysis *in 213 dollars 6.% 15 Largest Job kets GRP Percent Change: % 4.% Washington -.8% 3.% 2.% 1.%.% -1.% -2.% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8
9 1/22/ % 4.% 3.5% 3.% 2.5% 2.% 1.5% 1.%.5%.% 15 Largest Job kets Job Change: Washington +.3% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Washington MSA (s) Total = 1,7 (2.) (1.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 9
10 1/22/214 The GRP* Effects of Job Change in the Washington Metro Area, tember (in billions of 213$s) Job Change Average GRP Value - 17,4 $119,9 + 28,1 $65,97 Net Effect + 1,7 - $277,219,2 ** Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis *Gross Regional Product **calculation omits Information Services (-2,5/ $1.37 billion) and Financial Services (+5,1/$3.2 billion), both very high value added sectors. Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Aug Washington MSA (s) Total = 9,5 (2.) (1.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8 23 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1
11 1/22/ Professional & Business Services Washington MSA (s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis -14 Total: Federal Government Washington MSA (s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis -14 Total: GMU Center for Regional Analysis 11
12 1/22/ Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area, DC 6.1 U.S. 6. SMD 5.6 MSA NVA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted) % Largest Job kets Ranked by Unemployment Rate Aug 214 US 6.1 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted) GMU Center for Regional Analysis 12
13 1/22/214 Economic Trends in Northern Virginia (s) 8 Annual Job Change MOTYC Northern Virginia Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 13
14 1/22/214 (s) Annual Data Annual Job Change Northern Virginia, Annual Month over Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Northern Virginia (s) Total 4,9 3 (2.) (1.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 6 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 14
15 1/22/214 The GRP* Effects of Job Change in the Northern Virginia, tember (in billions of 213$s) Job Change Average GRP Value - 11,1 $179, , $129,883 Net Effect + 4,9 + $86,433,9 1 Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis *Gross Regional Product 1 Northern Virginia s GRP equals $229.7 billion; $86.4 million =.4% growth Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Aug Northern Virginia (s) Total -1,5 (2.) (1.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 13 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 15
16 1/22/214 Having Had a Rich Uncle Was Great, But Now What? 21 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 12. % Other Federal 1.7 % Local Serving Activities 34.8% Total Federal 39.8% Fed Wages & Salaries 1.% Procurement 19.1% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 16
17 1/22/ Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Local Serving Activities 38.% Non-Local Business 16.3 % Other Federal 8.9 % Total Federal 28.8% Fed Wages & Salaries 7.7 % Procurement 12.2% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis The Changing Structure of the Washington Area Economy, (percent distribution) Professional + Bus. Svcs Education + Health Svcs. Hospitality State + Local Govt. Federal Other Sectors Source: IHS Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 17
18 1/22/214 Net New and Replacement Job Growth in Fairfax County, VA: and Fairfax County, VA Change in Jobs, Summary Year Total Jobs Net New (% Change) Replacement (% Change) Openings (% Change) , , ,596 41,891 69, ,813 (7.1%) (11.9%) (19.1%) 46,464 74, ,14 (7.4%) (11.9%) (19.3%) Sources: JobsEQ, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 18
19 1/22/214 Fairfax County, VA Change in All Jobs, Occupation 2-Digit SOC Net New Replacements Computer & Mathematical 8,498 4,986 Business & Financial 4,695 5,483 Office & Admin Support 4,34 11,85 Healthcare (All) 3,98 3,371 Management Occupations 3,77 4,375 Sales & Related Occupations 2,826 8,771 Construction & Extraction 2,252 1,831 Food Prep & Serving 1,64 7,481 Architecture & Engineering 1,4 1,96 Personal Care & Service 1,354 2,142 All Others 7,936 18,491 Totals, All 41,891 69,922 Sources: JobsEQ, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Fairfax County, VA Major Sources of Net New Jobs, Digit SOC Net New %Total %Change Computer & Mathematical 8, Software Developers, Apps 1, Computer Systems Analysts 1, Software Developers, Systems 1, Computer Use Support Specs 1, Business & Financial 4, Management Analysts 1, ket Research Analysts Accountants & Auditors Business Ops Specs, All Other All Others 28, Total 41, Sources: JobsEQ, GMU Center for Regional Analysis * % Total of All Net New Jobs GMU Center for Regional Analysis 19
20 1/22/214 Fairfax County, VA Major Sources of Net New Jobs, Digit SOC Net New %Total %Change Office & Admin Support 4, Customer Service Reps Secretaries & Admin Assistant Bookkeep, Acct, & Audit Clerks Office Clerks, General Healthcare (All) 3, Registered Nurses Home Health Aides Nursing Assistants Medical Assistants All Others 33, Total 41, Sources: JobsEQ, GMU Center for Regional Analysis * % Total of All Net New Jobs Fairfax County, VA Change in All Jobs, Occupation 2-Digit SOC Net New Replacements Computer & Mathematical 9,772 5,763 Business & Financial 5,244 6,4 Office & Admin Support 4,775 11,462 Healthcare (All) 4,49 3,83 Management Occupations 3,371 4,739 Sales & Related Occupations 3,38 9,178 Construction & Extraction 2,536 2,73 Food Prep & Serving 1,732 7,775 Architecture & Engineering 1,543 2,95 Personal Care & Service 1,524 2,284 All Others 8,52 19,51 Totals, All 46,645 74,676 Sources: JobsEQ, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2
21 1/22/214 Economic Outlook for the Washington Metropolitan Area: % Economic Outlook (GRP), Washington Area and Sub-State Areas (Annual % Change) NV MSA SM DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: October 214 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 21
22 1/22/214 Employment Change in the WMSA by Sub-State Area (s) D.C Sub. MD No. VA REGION Source: BLS, IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis NOTE: The regional totals include Jefferson, WV. Average Annual Change = 35,8 % U.S. GDP and Washington Area GRP U.S. Washington Source: IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: October 214 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 22
23 1/22/214 Thank You & Questions cra.gmu.edu Save The Date: GMU/Cardinal Bank Economic Conference January 15, 215 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 23
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