What Will The Montgomery County Economy Look Like in 2017
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1 Leadership Montgomery Breakfast Club What Will The Montgomery County Economy Look Like in 217 Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University May 14, 213
2 The Economy In 21 and the Changing Conditions that are Shaping Its Future
3 21 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 12. % Other Federal 1.7 % Local Serving Activities 34.8% Total Federal 39.8% Fed Wages & Salaries 1.% Procurement 19.1% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
4 $ Billions Federal Procurement in the Washington Metro Area, TOTAL = $1,23.5 Billion $8. B $75.6 B Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report
5 Professional & Business Services Washington MSA (s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Tot 212 = 72,3
6 s Federal Employment in the Washington Metro Area, Eisenhower - 5 Kennedy Johnson + 74 Nixon - Ford Carter Reagan Bush 1 Clinton Bush Obama Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
7 (s) Annual Data Jan Apr Jul Federal Government Washington MSA Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Annual Month over Year Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Tot 212 = 377,4
8 Federal payroll declined by.6% between FY 21 and FY 211 and will continue to decline as the workforce shrinks and older workers retire and are replaced by younger workers. Summary for Federal Spending Trends in the Washington Metropolitan Area, Federal Procurement Outlays declined 8.4% between FY 21 and FY 212. Federal employment has declined since peaking in July 21, losing 8,7 jobs or 2.25%.
9 The Relative Importance of Federal Spending in the Maryland-DC-Virginia Region The Region s Share of U.S. Population 4.7% The Region s Share of All Federal $s 9.% The Region s Share of All DOD $s 15.% Share of Total Federal Spending Subject to Sequestration 21.% Federal Spending as a Percent of the Region s GRP in %
10 Wash MSA Payroll Job Change: Private Sector The Great Recession and Recovery to March 213 Aug 28-Feb 21 Feb 21-Mar 213 (s) Total -159 Total 157 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs 35 Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp Construction Other Services -8 5 Financial -1 7 Information -12 Manufacturing -1 Wlse Trade -7 1 Transp. & Util Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
11 New York Houston Los Angeles Dallas Chicago SF-Oakland Miami Atlanta Phoenix Detroit Seattle Boston WASHINGTON Minneapolis Philadelphia Metro Area Comparisons Job Change Largest Metro Areas (s) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
12 (s) Largest Job Markets Job Change: Mar 212 Mar 213 Washington + 36, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
13 (s) Annual Job Change Washington MSA, Annual Data 28 Annual Month over Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
14 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Mar 212 Mar 213 Washington MSA (s) Total = 36, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
15 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Feb 213 Mar 213 Washington MSA (s) Total = 23, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5 7
16 Montgomery County: The Recession and Post-Recession
17 (s) Annual Data Annual Job Change Suburban Maryland, Annual Month over Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
18 Montgomery Co.* Job Change: Private Sector The Great Recession and Recovery To December 212 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. (s) Total -54 Total Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), * Includes Frederick County, MD
19 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Mar 212 Mar 213 Suburban Maryland -1 (s) Total 11, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5 5
20 12 Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area, DC 7.6 U.S. 6.4 SMD 5.2 MSA 4. - NVA 2 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted)
21 The Montgomery County Economic Outlook
22 Job Growth in Montgomery County By Sector, (in thousands) Sector Change Percent Prof. & Bus. Ser Education/Health Retail Trade* Federal Gov t S & L Gov t Hospitality Financial Services Other Services Construction Information Ser Manufacturing Total Jobs
23 Major Sources of Job Growth in Montgomery County, (in thousands) Growth Sectors Change Percent Prof. & Bus. Ser Education/Health Construction Sub-Totals % Total MC totals Totals 3,33.4 3, Sources: IHS Global Insight; GMU Center for Regional Analysis
24 GRP Per Job in the Washington Area By Sector (in 25 dollars) Sector % Change Prof. & Bus. Services $134,75 $154, % Federal Gov t 138, ,566.1 Education/Health 59,73 57, S & L Gov t 6,975 56, Hospitality 42,883 42, Retail Trade 6,87 64, Other Services 7,339 69, Financial Services 543, , Construction 98,824 82, Information Services 349, , Other Sectors 147,93 151, GRP per Job $13,653 $138,
25 GRP Per Job in the Washington Area By Sector (in 25 dollars) High Job Growth % Change Prof. & Bus. Svs. (18.9%) $134,75 $154, Education/Health (9.3%) 59,73 57, Construction (45.2%) 98,824 82, Other High Value-Added Sectors Information Services (8.4%) 349, , Financial Services (2.8%) 543, , Federal (-8.3%) 138, ,566.1 GRP per Job $13,653 $138, Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
26 Montgomery County, MD: Growth Potential Summary: (in billions of 212 $s jobs in thousands) Indicator Change GRP Growth $68.7 $ % Net Job Growth Replacement Job Growth Resident Workforce Growth 35,64 7.1% 6,29 T=95, % T=18.7% 548, ,241 29,787
27 Montgomery County, MD: Major Sources of Net New Jobs Occupation Net New % of Total % Change Health Care (all) 7, Business and Financial 7, Personal Care Occup. 3, Sales Occupations 3, Buildings & Ground Clean. 2, Management Occupations 2, Education & Training 2, Food Prep. & Serving 2, Office Admin Support 1, Life, Physical, Social Sci. 1, Computer, Math and Sci 1, Totals 35,
28 Montgomery County, MD: Major Sources of Replacement Jobs Occupation Replacement % of Total % Change Sales Occupations 11, Office Admin Support 9, Food Prep. & Serving 6, Business and Financial 5, Management Occupations 5, Health Care (all) 5, Arts, Design, Entertain. 3, Personal Care Occup. 3, Education & Training 3, Construction & Extraction 3, Computer, Math and Sci 2, Totals 62,
29 Montgomery County, MD: Health Care Occupations Demand Occupation Openings (% Total) Net New (% Change) Replacement (% Change) Nursing, Psychiatric, Home Health Aides % % % Registered Nurses % % % Physicians and Surgeons % % % Misc. Healthcare Support Occupations % % % Misc. Health Diagnostics and Treating Prac % % % Licensed Practical and Vocational Nurses % % % Therapists % % % Massage Therapists % % % Health Support Techs % % % Dentists % % % Diagnosis Related Techs % % % Clinical Laboratory Techs % % % Pharmacists % % % Healthcare Workers, All Other % % % Dietitians and Nutritionists % 59 9.% % Total % % %
30 Montgomery County, MD: Business and Finance Occupations Demand Occupation Openings (% Total) Net New (% Change) Replacement (% Change) Financial Analysts and Advisors % % % Management Analysts % % % Miscellaneous Business Operation Specialists % % % Accountants and Auditors % % % Market Research and Marketing Specialists % % % Human Resources Workers % % % Buyers and Purchasing Agents % % % Appraisers and Assessors of Real Estate % % % Compliance Officers % % % Training and Development Specialists % % % Meeting, Convention, and Event Planners % % % Tax Examiners and Revenue Agents % % % Logisticians % % % Claims Adjusters, Appraisers, Examiners % % % Miscellaneous Financial Specialists % % % Total % % %
31 Educational Levels of Net New and Replacement Jobs in Montgomery County, MD, Educational Level All Jobs Net New Replace ment Bachelor s 32.4% 38.1% 29.4% or more 38,271 15,699 22,572 Associate s 4.2% 4, % 1,922 4.% 3,49 HS/Voc. Ed. 63.% 56.3% 66.5% GED/OJT 74,326 23,188 51,138
32 217 Structure of the Greater Washington Economy Non-Local Business 16.2 % Other Federal 9.7 % Fed Wages & Salaries 7.5 % Total Federal 29.2% Procurement 12.% Local Serving Activities 37.8% Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
33 % Economic Outlook (GRP), Washington Area and Sub-State Areas (Annual % Change) NV MSA SM DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
34 Thank You Questions cra.gmu.edu
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