The U.S. Economy s Current Performance and Outlook
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1 /3/4 Board of Directors, Northern Virginia Association of Realtors The Current Economic Outlook & Area Housing Market Conditions Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University June 8, 4 The U.S. Economy s Current Performance and Outlook GMU Center for Regional Analysis
2 /3/4 % U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change: 7 5 Forecast Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Global Insight June, 4 3 Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Four Recessions % Change in GDP* Q3 99-Q -Q4 9-Q *in 99 or 9 Chained Dollars Quarters After Trough Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis
3 /3/4 Contributions to Post Recession Recoveries Average Growth After 9 Quarters Avg % Chg. GDP Personal Consumption Residential Investment Exports Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Q3 99-Q -Q4 9-Q Recession Decreasing Role of Residential Investment % of GDP 9 Quarters Post-Recession 7.% Percent of GDP.% 5.% 4.% 3.%.% 5.% 3.4% 3.5%.7% 5.4% 4.9% 4.% 3.% 98-Q3 99-Q -Q4 9-Q.%.% Quarters After Start of Recession Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
4 /3/4 U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector May 3 May 4 Ranked by Size in 4 Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Prof. & Bus. Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Manufacturing Financial Construction Wlse Trade Other Services Transp. & Util. Federal Govt. Information (s) Total =, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector Apr 4 May 4 Ranked by Size in 4 Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Prof. & Bus. Svcs Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Manufacturing Financial Construction Wlse Trade Other Services Transp. & Util. Federal Govt. Information (s) Total = Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 4
5 /3/4 U.S. Unemployment Rate % May =.3 GI FCST Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), IHS Global Insight June, 4 (s) 5 Initial Claims for Unemployment -Present 4-Week Moving Average May Source: Department of Labor GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5
6 /3/4 Consumer Confidence Expectations Current Situation May-9 May- May- May- May-3 May-4 Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Interest Rates Forecast > > > > Yr -Yr Treas Fed Source: IHS Global Insight January, 4 GMU Center for Regional Analysis
7 /3/4 U.S. New and Existing Home Sales (s) Existing (Left Axis) New (Right Axis) (s) Source: National Association of Home Builders (New), National Association of Realtors (Existing) U.S. Residential Construction and Resales Forecast Revisions December 3 vs. June 4 (millions of units) Year Housing Starts Existing House Sales D-J 5.73 D-J Annual % % -.% % % 3.% % %.% % 5.48 n.c. - 5.% % % -.% Source: IHS Global Insight US Executive Summary June, 4 GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7
8 /3/4 The Current Performance of the Washington Area Economy % U.S. GDP and Washington Area GRP U.S. Washington Source: IHS Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8
9 /3/4 (s) 5 Largest Job Markets Job Change: May 3 May 4 Washington +, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Annual Job Change Washington MSA, -4 Annual Data (s) Annual Month over Year Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 9
10 /3/4 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Apr 3 Apr 4 Washington MSA (s) Total =,3 3 (.) (.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7 8 Professional & Business Services Jobs Washington MSA (s) Annual Data Annual Month over Year Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Apr-4 Total: 7.9 GMU Center for Regional Analysis
11 /3/4 (s) Annual Data 5 8 Mar Federal Government Jobs Washington MSA Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Annual Month over Year 9 3 Dec Mar Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Apr-4 Total: 34. Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Mar 4 Apr 4 Washington MSA - - (s) Total =,8 (.) (.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5 GMU Center for Regional Analysis
12 /3/4 (s) Annual Data Annual Job Change District of Columbia, -4 8 Annual Month over Year 3 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector May 3 May 4 District of Columbia - - (s) Total -7 (.) (.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis
13 /3/4 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Apr 4 May 4 District of Columbia - (s) Total -3, (.) (.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis (s) Annual Data Annual Job Change Suburban Maryland, -4 8 Annual Month over Year 3 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
14 /3/4 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector May 3 May 4 Suburban Maryland (s) Total 8,9 (.) (.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Apr 4 May 4 Suburban Maryland (s) Total 5, (.) (.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 4
15 /3/4 (s) Annual Data Annual Job Change Northern Virginia, -4 8 Annual Month over Year 3 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector May 3 May 4 Northern Virginia (s) Total,3 (.) (.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5
16 /3/4 Prof. & Bus. Svcs Federal Govt. Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Construction Other Services Financial Information Manufacturing Wlse Trade Transp. & Util. Job Change by Sector Apr 4 May 4 Northern Virginia - - (s) Total 4,8 (.) (.) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 4 Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area, DC.3 U.S. 4.8 SMD 4.5 MSA NVA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted) GMU Center for Regional Analysis
17 /3/4 Housing Market Trends in the Washington Area and Northern Virginia Percent Change in Inventories of Existing Homes Month-Over-Year 4, WMSA May = + 9.% Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis. Total monthly inventory includes listings active at the end of the month plus sales during the month. GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7
18 /3/4 5, Active Listings WMSA - All Housing Types each month by year 4, 3,,, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5,,5, 7,5 5,,5, 7,5 5,,5 Active Listings Northern Virginia - All Housing Types each month by year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8
19 /3/4 4, Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Through May 4,, 8, -Month Moving Average, 4,, Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis,, 8, Total Sales by Sub-State Area WMSA All Property Types months ending in May of each year, 4, No. VA Sub. MD D.C., Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 9
20 /3/4 Total Sales by Property Type WMSA All Property Types months ending in May of each year,, 8,, 4, SFD SFA Condo, Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5 Total Listings Per Sale WMSA - May Each Year 5 PW PG DC 5 - LDN ARL MONT FFX Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis
21 /3/4 (s) Median House Sales Price WMSA - All Housing Types $398.K May 4 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Average Sales Price Percent Change WMSA All Housing Types % 3 Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis
22 /3/4 % Average Sales Price Percent Change Northern Virginia All Housing Types Annual Change Annual Change by Month Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis $5, $4, $3, $, $, Median Sale Price WMSA All Housing Types as measured in May of each year D.C. No. VA MSA Sub. MD $ Source: RealEstate Business Intelligence (RBI), Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis
23 /3/4 $,4, $,, $,, $8, $, $4, $, Average Sale Price WMSA Single-Family Detached as measured in May of each year D.C. No. VA MSA Sub. MD $ Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis $,, $8, $, $4, Average Sale Price WMSA Single-Family Attached as measured in May of each year D.C. MSA No. VA Sub. MD $, $ Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 3
24 /3/4 Average Sale Price WMSA Condos as measured in May of each year $,, $8, $, $4, D.C. MSA No. VA Sub. MD $, $ Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Share of Closed Sales and Listings by Price in the WMSA, May 4 (Percent) 45% 4% 35% 3% 5% % 5% % 5% % <$K $-399K $4-599K $-799K $8-999K $M+ Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 4
25 /3/4 ($) Comparison of YoY Change in Closed Sales and Listings in the WMSA, May 4 <$K $-399K $4-599K $-799K $8-999K $M+ Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 4,5 4, 3,5 3,,5,,5, 5 Building Permits WMSA 4, 3-Month Mvg Avg Source: Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 5
26 /3/4 New Building Permits for Privately Owned Residential Units, WMSA 45, 4, 35, 3, 5,, 5,, 5, 4: 38K 3: 4K Building Type: 5+ Units -4 Units SF Source: Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis Economic Outlook for the Washington Metropolitan Area: 3-8 GMU Center for Regional Analysis
27 /3/4 Employment Change in the WMSA by Sub-State Area (s) D.C Sub. MD No. VA REGION Source: BLS, IHS Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis NOTE: The regional totals include Jefferson, WV. Average Annual Change 99- = 35,8 % Economic Outlook (GRP), -8 Washington Area and Sub-State Areas (Annual % Change) NV MSA SM DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis GMU Center for Regional Analysis 7
28 /3/4 Capital One Bank and CRA Presents The Washington Area Economy: A Mid-Year Review and Early Forecast for 5 Thursday, August, 4, 8:5-9:3 AM Light breakfast begins at 7:3 Capital One Bank Auditorium RSVP at Lauren.Rather@CapitalOne.com Thank You Questions cra.gmu.edu GMU Center for Regional Analysis 8
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