VECTRA BANK 23 RD ANNUAL ECONOMIC FORECAST BREAKFAST START SMART IN 2016! Member FDIC VectraBank.com

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1 VECTRA BANK 23 RD ANNUAL ECONOMIC FORECAST BREAKFAST START SMART IN 2016! Member FDIC VectraBank.com

2 Economic Presentation April 26, 2016 Tatiana Bailey, Ph.D. Director, UCCS Economic Forum

3 A Little Humor First

4 A Little Humor First

5 Overview National Indicators The Big Picture to the Local Picture Labor Force, Employment & Unemployment Real Estate & Tourism

6 Percentage Jan-01 Real Growth in GDP vs. Year Ago Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Time Period (Quarterly at Annualized Rate) Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; Forecasts by CO Office of State Planning & Budgeting *Preliminary Real GDP Percent Change from Q4 Year Ago, SA; 3 rd revision Jan-14 Q4: 2.0%* Jan-15 Forecasts: GDP 2016: 2.6% GSP 2016: 3.2% GMP 2016: 2.2%

7 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Actual Forecasts: 2015: : 89.0 Mar: 91.0 Jun-90 Jun-91 Jun-92 Jun-93 Jun-94 Jun-95 Jun-96 Jun-97 Jun-98 Jun-99 Jun-00 Jun-01 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Source: University of Michigan; Forecasts by UCCS Southern Colorado Economic Forum

8 $70,000 $65,000 $60,000 $55,000 $50,000 up 2.8% 3.5% 2014 Per Capita Real GMP (chained 2009 dollars) 2.8% 0.3% 1.0% 1.3% $45,000 $40, % $35,000 $30,000 Austin Boulder Colorado Springs Denver Huntsville Salt Lake City U.S. (Metro Portion) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

9 Overview National Indicators The Big Picture to the Local Picture Labor Force, Employment & Unemployment Real Estate & Tourism

10 6,000 Survey Employer Data through February 2016 Total U.S. Monthly Non-Farm Job Openings SA (000's) Job Openings (000s) 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Forecasts by CO Office of State Planning & Budgeting and UCCS Southern Colorado Economic Forum

11 March 2016 BLS Data Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 215,000 in March (avg. 209,000/mo for last 3 months). Last 12 months, average hourly earnings up 2.3%. Most gains in retail trade, construction, health care & social assistance, food services & drinking places and financial activities; declines in manufacturing and mining jobs. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

12 Number of Employees (000s) 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 U.S. Employment by Industry, NSA 0 Jan-07 Jan-15 Jan-16 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Survey

13 March BLS Data Number of long-term unemployed (27 wks+) was essentially unchanged at 2.2 million in March. Account for 27.6% of unemployed and little movement since June. Civilian participation rate increased slightly to 63.0% from 62.9% in February.

14 U.S. Employment/Population, Labor Force Participation Rate SA Percentage Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Recession Civilian Participation Rate SA Employment/Population Data through March 2016 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

15 Percentage Household Data: U.S. Civilian Participation Rates SA Employment/Population SA Blue and Red are same as before but on a different scale Civilian Participation Rate Civilian Participation Rate Civilian Participation Rate (Total) Employment/Population Civilian Participation Rate 55+ Recession Data through March 2016 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

16 Unemployment Rate & Number Unemployed by Age and Gender, December 2015* Unemployment Rate Source: BLS. *Bubble size represents number of unemployed

17 Monthly Unemployment Rate NSA Percentage Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Current: Feb % U.S. 4.7% PC 3.9% EPC 3.8% TC 3.3% CO Sources: BLS-LAUS; Forecasts (NSA) for U.S. and CO from Colorado Office of Budgeting and Planning, EPC from Forum

18 Per Capita Personal Income - NSA $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 EPC: 86% of Colorado; 91% of U.S. U.S. Colorado El Paso Teller Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; not seasonally adjusted and not chained (current $)

19 Colorado Springs MSA Job Openings Real Time Job Market Data for March 2016 Average posting duration (44 days) Median salary of posted jobs ($62,800); higher now than Colorado median ($59,500) Suggests more professional/higher skills jobs Sources: WANTED Analytics TM ; Pikes Peak Workforce Center

20 Colorado Springs MSA Job Openings Top job titles March 2016: 1) Software Engineer (745 jobs) 2) Customer Service Rep (706 jobs) 3) Registered Nurse (657 jobs) 4) Administrative Assistant (550 jobs) 5) Sales Rep (495 jobs) December ) Teller (488 jobs) 7) Systems Engineer (454 jobs) 8) Project Manager (422 jobs) 9) Physical Therapist (416 jobs) 10) Systems Administrator (393 jobs) Demand for Labor Supply of Labor 13,944 12,424 Sources: WANTED Analytics TM ; Pikes Peak Workforce Center

21 40,000 Colorado Springs MSA Labor Force Number of People 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Monthly Demand for Labor Sources: WANTED Analytics TM ; Pikes Peak Workforce Center Monthly Supply of Labor

22 Colorado Springs MSA Job Openings Top job titles March 2016: 1) Software Engineer (745 jobs) 2) Customer Service Rep (706 jobs) 3) Registered Nurse (657 jobs) 4) Administrative Assistant (550 jobs) 5) Sales Rep (495 jobs) December ) Teller (488 jobs) 7) Systems Engineer (454 jobs) 8) Project Manager (422 jobs) 9) Physical Therapist (416 jobs) 10) Systems Administrator (393 jobs) Demand for Labor Supply of Labor 13,944 12,424 Sources: WANTED Analytics TM ; Pikes Peak Workforce Center

23 Number of Job Openings 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Jobs Demanded 2012 to 2015 Top Categories 56% 99% 78% 83% 93% 94% 129% 20% 100% 174% 48% Source: WANTED ANALYTICS via Pikes Peak Workforce Center

24 Employment 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 El Paso County Employment for Selected Sectors for Q3 of 2006 and Q3 of Q Q3 Source: Colorado Department of Labor, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)

25 2009 Dollars $450 $400 $350 $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 El Paso County Total Real Wages ($M) for Selected Sectors, Q3 of 2006 and Q3 of 2015 Note: Sectors are in order based on the number of employees in Q3 of Source: Colorado Department of Labor, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) Q Q3

26 Establishments 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, El Paso County Average Number of Establishments in Selected Sectors for Q3 of 2006 and Q3 of 2015 Note: Sectors are in order based on the number of employees in Q3 of Source: Colorado Department of Labor, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) Q Q3

27 Top 7 Industries for Employee Growth in Colorado Springs MSA between 2016 and 2018 Employment Change Annual Average Percent Increase Health & Social Assistance 3, % Accom & Food Services 2, % Construction 1, % Pro & Tech Services 1, % Administrative & Waste 1, % Retail Trade 1, % Educational Services % Source: Colorado Department of Labor: QCEW

28 Industries Projected to Lose Employees in Colorado Springs MSA between 2016 and 2018 Employment Change Annual Average Percent Decrease Information % Manufacturing % Source: Colorado Department of Labor: QCEW

29 Overview National Indicators The Big Picture to the Local Picture Labor Force, Employment & Unemployment Real Estate & Tourism

30 National Picture - Housing U.S. home prices increased 6.9% comparing Q4 of 2015 to Q4 of 2014; 85% of measured MSAs had increases. Home values in the Denver-Lakewood-Aurora MSA jumped 11.8% in January 2016 compared to January 2015 (#1 spot). San Francisco #2, with home prices rising 11.6% Colorado #2 state in the nation for year-over-year home appreciation: up 10.9% (Jan 2016 to Jan 2015) #1 was Washington state, up 11.6% (Jan to Jan). Source: National Association of Realtors; Core Logic March report

31 National Picture - Housing The national median existing single-family home price in Q4 was $222,700 (up 6.9%). The average condo price in the U.S. was $209,200 (up 3.6% Q4, 2015 compared to Q4, 2014) 72% of MSAs showed gains in median condo prices. Source: National Association of Realtors

32 $280,000 $260,000 $269,492 U.S. Annual Average & Median Existing Single-Family Home Prices $265,183 $240,000 $222,092 $220,000 $200,000 $212,933 $219,867 Median Price Average Price $180,000 $160,000 $164,542 $140,000 Source: National Association of Realtors

33 Local Picture - Housing 2015 Q4, Colorado Springs had a median price of $237,600 up 5.6% from 2014 Q4. Denver had an 12.3% increase and the median price was $353,500. Boulder s median price was almost $470, % increase in home sales 2014 to Supply of homes for sale in January 2016 fell to 1,923; the lowest for any month in 20 years. Sources: National Association of Realtors; PPAR (RSC)

34 $300,000 Pikes Peak Region Average & Median (Single-Family) Home Prices, through March, 2016 $280,000 $260,000 $240,000 $268,010 $239,500 $220,000 $200,000 $180,000 Median $ Average $ $160,000 Source: PPAR (RSC); data through February

35 $280,000 $260,000 $240,000 Pikes Peak Region Annual Average & Median (Single-Family) Home Prices $268,686 $245,433 $238,700 $220,000 $200,000 $180,000 $160,000 $206,819 $217,824 $185,000 Median Price Average Price Forecasts: Average 2016: $291,000 Median 2016: $257,000 Source: PPAR (RSC); Forecasts by UCCS Southern Colorado Economic Forum

36 Number of Days Average Days on Market Pikes Peak Region (Single Family/Patio Homes) Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar Source: PPAR (RSC)

37 Some Anecdotal Information Still a split market (above and below $400k) High student debt and perhaps demographics are causing homeownership to still be low (50- yr. low) 63.8%. Nonetheless, Kiplinger s is forecasting a 15% increase in new home construction, Source: Local realtors and Patterson Group data; Census Bureau for homeownership rate Q4, 2015

38 Number of Homes Pikes Peak Single Family (Detached) Home Sales 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 9,624 9,750 10,204 11,746 13,118 11,890 9,995 8,339 8,346 8,185 8,459 9,146 10,786 11,197 13,250 - Source: PPAR (RSC)

39 Pikes Peak Single and Multi-Family Permits Number of Permits 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Healthy number of permits, Single Family Multi-Family Source: Pikes Peak Regional Building Department; Forecasts by UCCS Southern Colorado Economic Forum with input from PPRBD

40 Top 10 hottest housing markets for 2016 based on job growth, vacancies, affordability and demographics: 1. Grand Rapids, MI 2. Charleston, SC 3. Austin, TX 4. Baton Rouge, LA 5. San Antonio, TX 6. Colorado Springs, CO 7. Columbia, SC 8. Riverside, CA 9. Las Vegas, NV 10. Tacoma, WA Source: Bloomberg News, Dec. 18, 2015 (Ralph McLaughlin, Trulia)

41 $100,000 $90, Median Wealth & Housing Affordability $80,000 $70, $60, $50, $40,000 Austin Boulder Colorado Springs Denver Huntsville Salt Lake City San Antonio San Francisco 0 MSA Weighted Wealth Housing Affordability Index Higher Housing Affordability Indices mean greater affordability; U.S. median wealth was $44,900; U.S. average affordability composite index was 166. Sources: Synergos Technologies and U.S. Census Bureau; Credit Suisse and National Association of Realtors

42 El Paso County Population Projections Source: Colorado State Demography Office

43 El Paso County Population Projections by Age Group 225,000 Number of People 175, ,000 75,000 25, to 49 0 to to to to 29 Source: Colorado Department of Local Affairs

44 70% 65% Colorado Springs Hotel Occupancy Rate 12 Month Moving Average 60% 55% Mar. Actual: 60.8% 50% Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Source: CO Hotel and Lodging Association, Rocky Mountain Lodging Report

45 $ $90.00 Annual Hotel RevPAR Colorado and Colorado Springs $100 $70.00 $50.00 $65 $ Colorado Springs Colorado Source: CO Hotel and Lodging Association, Rocky Mountain Lodging Report; Forecasts by Robert S. Benton & Associates, Inc.

50 Find publications on our website: SouthernColoradoEconomicForum.com SAVE THE DATE! 20th Annual Southern Colorado Economic Forum! October 14, 2016 from 1:00 4:30 p.m. Broadmoor Hall Keynote address by Jim Paulsen of Wells Fargo Updates by community leaders Panel Theme: Colorado Springs: Going for the Gold (Exploring best practices and next steps for our community) Follow us on

52 Thank you! Wishing you a prosperous 2016! Presentations available at vectrabank.com/cosprings Member FDIC VectraBank.com

Labor Force/Employment U.S. Non-Farm Job Openings

Labor Force/Employment U.S. Non-Farm Job Openings Jun7 Feb8 Oct8 Jun9 May6 May8 May1 May12 Number of People Feb1 Oct1 Jun11 Feb12 Jan8 Sep8 Jan1 Sep1 Jan12 Sep12 Jan14 Percentage Jan8 Sep8 Jan1 Sep1 Jan12 Sep12 Jan14 Job Openings ('s) The Big Picture