August 2015 Lutgert College Of Business FGCU Blvd. South Fort Myers, FL Phone

Transcription

1 Southwest Florida Regional Economic Indicators August 215 Lutgert College Of Business 151 FGCU Blvd. South Fort Myers, FL Phone

2 Table of Contents Introduction: Regional and National Background... 3 Airport Passenger Activity... 5 Chart 1: SW Florida International Passenger Activity... 5 Chart 2: Sarasota Airport Passenger Activity... 6 Chart 3: Punta Gorda Airport Passenger Activity... 6 Tourist Tax Revenues... 9 Chart 4: Tourist Tax Revenues for the Coastal Counties... 7 Chart 5: Coastal County Tourist Tax Revenues, SA... 8 Single-Family Building Permits... 8 Chart 6: Single-Family Building Permits for Lee County... 9 Chart 7: Single-Family Building Permits for Collier County... 9 Chart 8: Single-Family Building Permits for Charlotte County... 1 Taxable Sales... 1 Chart 9: Taxable Sales for 5 County Region Chart 1: Taxable Sales for Coastal Counties Chart 11: Taxable Sales for Inland Counties Workforce Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment Chart 12: Lee County Labor Force and Unemployment Chart 13: Collier County Labor Force and Unemployment Chart 14: Charlotte County Labor Force and Unemployment Chart 15: Hendry County Labor Force and Unemployment Chart 16: Glades County Labor Force and Unemployment Sales of Existing Single family Homes and Median Sales Prices Chart 17: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Lee County Chart 18: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Collier County Chart 19: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Charlotte County Consumer Sentiment Index Chart 2: Consumer Sentiment Index Consumer Price Index Chart 21: CPI Annual Percentage Change Chart 22: Miami-Fort Lauderdale CPI Component Percentage Change Population... 2 Chart 23: Coastal Counties Population Growth 199 to Chart 24: Inland Counties Population Growth 199 to Chart 25: Population Projections by County

3 Dr. Chris Westley, Director, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: Mr. Steven Scheff, Business Analyst, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: Mr. Jim Breitbach, Technical Support, Regional Economic Research Institute Phone: Copyright 215 FGCU - All rights reserved. Introduction: Regional and National Background On July 27th, the Commerce Department announced an upward revision of second quarter GDP of 3.7 percent, significantly higher than the initial figure of 2.3 percent released in July. The revision was justified on the basis of strong measures of consumer spending, business investment, and corporate profits. However, the news of strong economic growth followed a volatile week on Wall Street that might affect sentiment for increasing the federal funds target rate when the Federal Reserve s Open Market Committee meets in September. A number of positive signs appeared in the most recent regional data. Seasonally-adjusted regional taxable sales for May 215 were up seven percent ($129 million) over May 214. Seasonally-adjusted tourist tax revenues for June 215 were up 1 percent for the region encompassing Collier, Lee, and Charlotte counties. The June 215 passenger activity for the three Southwest Florida airports was four percent higher than the June 214 figure. Realtor sales of existing single-family homes within the three coastal counties were up 19 percent in July 215 compared to July 214. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate for the five-county region held steady at 5.2 from June to July, a full percentage point below the year earlier figure; unemployment for the state of Florida was 5.4 percent in July 215, a decrease of six-tenths of a percent from July 214. The national unemployment rate in July 215 was 5.4 percent, down from 6. percent in July 214. The number of long-term unemployed in the U.S. (those jobless for 27 weeks or longer) was 2.2 million in July 215, which is a 31.1 percent decrease from July 214 and 26.9 percent of all unemployed. The July Bureau of Labor Statistics Establishment Survey showed that national nonfarm payroll employment increased by 215, for the month, a decrease of 16, from June and below the 12-month average job growth of 246,. The July employment increases included 36, in retail trade, 28, in health care, 27, in professional and technical services, and 17, in financial activities. While manufacturing employment increased by 15,, there was little change in other major industries such as construction, wholesale trade, and information. Possibly reflecting the global decline in commodity prices, mining employment continued its downward trend in July, decreasing by 5, jobs. The national consumer price index (CPI) in July 215 increased only.1 percent. The year-to-year decline in gasoline prices has offset much of the increase in the other elements of the index. The shelter index (rental equivalence measure for homeowner costs) rose (i).4 percent for the month (its largest increase since February 27), and (ii) 3.1 percent for the last 12 months (its largest increase since January 28). Medical care services increased 2.3 percent, and energy prices decreased 14.8 percent. Core inflation (all items less food and energy) increased by 1.8 percent for the 12-month period ending in July. National 3

4 housing prices increased 4.97 percent for the 2-city composite S & P Case-Shiller Home Price Index in the 12 months ending June 215. The director and staff of RERI extend their sincere thanks and appreciation to the individuals and organizations who contribute to this report. These include the Southwest Florida Regional Planning Council, the Economic Development Organizations of Charlotte, Collier, and Lee Counties, the Convention and Visitors Bureaus of Collier and Lee Counties, the regional airport authorities, the Realtors of Lee and Collier County, the University of Florida Survey Research Center, and the county and city permit offices. 4

5 Arrivals plus Departures - Thousands Airport Passenger Activity Airport passenger activity is the sum of arrivals and departures for Southwest Florida International (RSW), Sarasota Bradenton International (SRQ), and Punta Gorda (PGD) airports. Peak seasonal activity occurs in February, March, and April, with significantly lower activity in the summer months. Charts 1, 2, and 3 illustrate the seasonality of airport passenger traffic and the changes from year to year. In June 215, total passenger activity for the three Southwest Florida airports amounted to 645,445, a fourpercent increase over June 214. All three facilities reported year-to-date improvement over the prior period, resulting in a regional increase of over 36, passengers (five percent) in the six-month period ending on June 3. Chart 1 shows Southwest Florida International Airport passenger activity of 481,512 in June 215, up one percent over June 214. Sarasota Bradenton Airport recorded 85,657 passengers in June 215, down three percent from June 214, as shown in Chart 2. Punta Gorda passenger activity rose to 78,276 in June 215, up 5 percent over June 214, as shown in Chart 3. 1,2 Chart 1: SW Florida International Passenger Activity SW Florida International Airport (RSW) Passenger Activity 1,1 1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Local Airport Authorities 5

6 Arrivals plus Departures - Thousands Arrivals plus Departures - Thousands 175 Chart 2: Sarasota Airport Passenger Activity Sarasota Bradenton Int'l Airport (SRQ) Passenger Activity Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Local Airport Authorities 1 Chart 3: Punta Gorda Airport Passenger Activity Punta Gorda Airport (PGD) Passenger Activity Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Local Airport Authorities 6

7 Monthly Tourst Tax Revenue - Millions Tourist Tax Revenues Tourist tax revenues for the three coastal counties (shown in Charts 4 and 5) increased by over $449, (1 percent) from June 214 to June 215. These data are based on month of occupancy. Seasonally adjusted revenues for Charlotte County in June 215 were up 11 percent over June 214. Collier County s seasonally-adjusted tourist tax revenues increased to $1,638,251, an increase of two percent over June 214. Lee County s seasonally-adjusted revenues amounted to $3,24,19 in June 215, up 13 percent over June 214. Chart 4: Tourist Tax Revenues for the Coastal Counties Tourist Tax Revenue 211 to Present: 3 Coastal Counties Total Unadjusted Data Seasonally Adjusted (SA) Data Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source: Local County Tourism, Tax, and Economic Development Reports 7

8 Monthly Tourist Tax Revenue - $ Millions Chart 5: Coastal County Tourist Tax Revenues, SA 4. County Tourist Tax Revenue to present Lee Collier 1..5 Charlotte. Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source: Local County Tourism, Tax, and Economic Development Reports Single-Family Building Permits A total of 645 single-family building permits were issued in the three coastal counties in July 215, an increase of 92 (17 percent) over July 214, but 58 fewer than June 215. Lee County issued 33 permits in July 215, up 12 percent over July 214, as shown in Chart 6. In July 215, Collier County reported issuing 26 permits, 13 percent more than July 214, as shown in Chart 7. Charlotte County issued 82 permits in July 215, an increase of 58 percent over July 214, as shown in Chart 8. Hendry County has issued 11 permits through July 215, compared to seven during the first seven months of

9 25 Av 26 Av 27 Av 28 Av 29 Av 21 Av 211 Av 212 Av 213 Av 214 Av Jul 214 Aug 214 Sep 214 Oct 214 Nov 214 Dec 214 Jan 215 Feb 215 Mar 215 Apr 215 May 215 Jun 215 Jul 215 Permits Issued Chart 6: Single-Family Building Permits for Lee County Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, including Fort Myers, Cape Coral, and Unincorporated Lee County, Bonita Springs and Fort Myers Beach permits. Chart 7: Single-Family Building Permits for Collier County 35 Single Family Permits Issued - Collier County Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months Data and Trend Permits Linear Trend Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, includes unincorporated Collier County permits only. 9

10 25 Av 26 Av 27 Av 28 Av 29 Av 21 Av 211 Av 212 Av 213 Av 214 Av Jul 214 Aug 214 Sep 214 Oct 214 Nov 214 Dec 214 Jan 215 Feb 215 Mar 215 Apr 215 May 215 Jun 215 Jul 215 Permits Issued Chart 8: Single-Family Building Permits for Charlotte County 25 Single Family Permits Issued - Charlotte County Monthly Averages; Most Recent 13 Months Data and Trend Permits Linear Trend 5 Source: Local Building and Zoning Departments, includes unincorporated Charlotte County permits only. Taxable Sales Taxable sales data track consumer spending based on the latest month of merchants collections; i.e., one month earlier than the reporting month issued by the Florida Department of Revenue. Chart 9 shows both seasonally-adjusted and unadjusted taxable sales for the region. The five Southwest Florida counties had total seasonally-adjusted taxable sales of $2.2 billion in May 215, an increase of seven percent (or $129.2 million) over May 214. Charts 1 and 11 show seasonally-adjusted taxable sales for the coastal and inland counties, respectively. Lee County s taxable sales increased from $1.3 billion in May 214 to $1.1 billion in May 215, a sevenpercent increase. Collier County s taxable sales increased from $641.2 million to $678.5 million, an increase of six percent over the same month last year. Charlotte County s taxable sales grew by eight percent from $19.1 million in May 214 to $25.2 million in May 215. Hendry County s taxable sales were up 16 percent from $27. million in May 214 to $31.4 million in May 215. Taxable sales in Glades County also rose, increasing 11 percent from $3.3 million in May 214 to $3.6 million in May 215. All cited data are seasonally-adjusted. 1

11 Monthly Taxabkle Sales - $ Millions Monthly Taxable Sales - $ Billons Chart 9: Taxable Sales for 5 County Region 3. Taxable Sales 211 to Present - 5 County Region Unadjusted Data Seasonally Adjusted (SA) Data. Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research Chart 1: Taxable Sales for Coastal Counties 1,2 Coastal County Taxable Sales to Present 1, 8 Lee 6 Collier 4 2 Charlotte All Data Seasonally Adjusted Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research 11

12 Monthly Taxable Sales - $ Millions Chart 11: Taxable Sales for Inland Counties 35 Inland County Taxable Sales to Present 3 Hendry All Data Seasonally Adjusted 1 5 Glades Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Source: Florida Department of Revenue, Office of Tax Research Workforce Labor Force, Employment and Unemployment Charts show total persons employed and unemployed, and the unemployment rate, for each county from January 25 to July 215, on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate for our five-county region was 5.2 percent in July 215, the same as June 215 and down from 6.2 percent in July 214. The regional improvement is primarily attributable to a decrease of 5,678 unemployed from July 214 to July 215. Total employed increased by 545 persons. Lee County's seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate fell to 4.9 percent in July 215, down from 6. percent in July 214 and from 5. percent in June 215, as shown in Chart 12. Collier County s unemployment rate was 5.1 percent in July 215, down from 5.8 percent in July 214 but.1 points higher than June 215, as shown in Chart 13. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate in Charlotte County remained at 5.7 percent in July 215, down from 6.8 percent in July 214, as shown in Chart 14. Hendry County s July 215 unemployment rate was 9.3 percent, down from 1.3 percent in July 214, but higher than the 9.1 percent figure of June 215, as shown in Chart 15. The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate in Glades County was 7.1 percent in July 215, compared to 7.4 percent in July 214 and 6.9 percent in June 215, as shown in Chart 16. Florida s seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate declined to 5.4 percent in July 215 from 5.6 percent (revised) in June, down.6 points from July 214. Nationally, the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate has declined from 6.2 percent in July 214 to 5.3 percent in June 215 and in July

13 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Numbers of Employed / Unemployed - Thousands Unemployment Rate - Percent Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Numbers of Employed / Unemployed - Thousands Unemployment Rate - Percent Chart 12: Lee County Labor Force and Unemployment 35 Labor Force and Unemployment: Lee County Unemployed Employed Unemployment Rate 2.. Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI Chart 13: Collier County Labor Force and Unemployment Labor Force and Unemployment: Collier County Unemployed Employed Unemployment Rate Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI 13

14 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Numbers of Employed / Unemployed - Thousands Unemployment Rate - Percent Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Numbers of Employed / Unemployed - Thousands Unemployment Rate - Percent Chart 14: Charlotte County Labor Force and Unemployment Labor Force and Unemployment: Charlotte County Unemployed Employed Unemployment Rate Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI Chart 15: Hendry County Labor Force and Unemployment Labor Force and Unemployment: Hendry County Unemployed Employed Unemployment Rate Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI 14

15 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Numbers of Employed / Unemployed - Thousands Unemployment Rate - Percent Chart 16: Glades County Labor Force and Unemployment 7 Labor Force and Unemployment: Glades County Unemployed Employed Unemployment Rate Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity and seasonal adjustment by RERI Sales of Existing Single family Homes and Median Sales Prices Existing single-family home sales by a Realtor for Lee, Collier, and Charlotte Counties are shown in Charts The line represents median prices plotted against the scale on the right side, and the bars represent the number of homes sold with the scale on the left side. In July 215, 2,112 single-family homes were sold in the three coastal counties, an increase of 19 percent over July 214, and five percent below the prior month of June 215. Lee County sales amounted to 1,315 units in July 215, an increase of 26 percent over July 214, along with a 17 percent increase in the median price to $21,9 over the same period. Collier County single-family home sales declined to 358 units in July 215, down from 379 in July 214 and from 431 in June 215. The median price in Collier County was $379, in July 215, compared to $35, in July 214 and $397, in June 215. Charlotte County reported 439 single-family homes sold in in July 215, up 24 percent over July 214, coupled with a 16-percent increase in the median price over the same period. 15

16 Aug 213 Sep 213 Oct 213 Nov 213 Dec 213 Jan 214 Feb 214 Mar 214 Apr 214 May 214 Jun 214 Jul 214 Aug 214 Sep 214 Oct 214 Nov 214 Dec 214 Jan 215 Feb 215 Mar 215 Apr 215 May 215 Jun 215 Jul 215 Number of Homes Sold Median Sale Price - Thousands Aug 213 Sep 213 Oct 213 Nov 213 Dec 213 Jan 214 Feb 214 Mar 214 Apr 214 May 214 Jun 214 Jul 214 Aug 214 Sep 214 Oct 214 Nov 214 Dec 214 Jan 215 Feb 215 Mar 215 Apr 215 May 215 Jun 215 Jul 215 Number of Homes Sold Median Sale Price - Thousands Chart 17: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Lee County Lee County Existing Single Family Home Sales by Realtors 16 $ $ $15 $1 4 2 Lee Homes Sold Lee Median Sale Price $5 $ Source: Realtor Association of Greater Fort Myers and the Beach, Inc. Chart 18: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Collier County 6 Collier County Existing Single Family Home Sales* by Realtors $ $4 $35 $3 3 2 $25 $2 $15 1 Collier Homes Sold Collier Median Sale Price $1 $5 $ * Does not include Marco Island. Source: Naples Area Board of Realtors (NABOR) 16

17 Aug 213 Sep 213 Oct 213 Nov 213 Dec 213 Jan 214 Feb 214 Mar 214 Apr 214 May 214 Jun 214 Jul 214 Aug 214 Sep 214 Oct 214 Nov 214 Dec 214 Jan 215 Feb 215 Mar 215 Apr 215 May 215 Jun 215 Jul 215 Number of Homes Sold Median Sale Price - Thousands Chart 19: Existing Single-Family Home Sales for Charlotte County Charlotte County Existing Single Family Home Sales by Realtors Charlotte Homes Sold Charlotte Median Sale Price $2 $18 $16 $14 $12 $1 $8 $6 $4 $2 $ Source: Florida Realtors Punta Gorda, Florida MSA; Consumer Sentiment Index Chart 2 shows monthly data and linear trend lines over the last three years for both the Florida Consumer Sentiment Index ( CSI ) reported by the University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) and for the United States Index of Consumer Sentiment ( ICS ) reported by Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan. Both indices dipped in July but remain well above their prior year levels. The national ICS was down 3. points to 93.1 in July 215 from 96.1 in June 215, but well above the 81.8 level of July 214. The July 31, 215 Survey of Consumers noted that Consumer confidence slipped a bit in the July 215 survey. Nonetheless, the data provide no indication of a break in the prevailing positive trend. Indeed, the Sentiment Index has averaged 94.5 since December 214, the highest eight-month average since 24. The Florida Consumer Sentiment Index was 89 in July 215, off.8 points from the previous month, and 7.5 points higher than the July 214 figure. In the Florida Consumer Sentiment Index dated July 31, 215, Survey Director Chris McCarty noted that While most of the components fell, the biggest change between June and July was the more than five point increase in perceptions of personal finances now compared to a year ago. The personal finances index likely benefited from gains in the stock market early in the month before it fell in the latter part. We expect the personal finance indicator to be lower by the time all responses are collected in July, particularly given the recent market reaction to the decline in the Chinese stock market. 17

18 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Chart 2: Consumer Sentiment Index 1 Florida and US Consumer Sentiment Indices Most Recent 3 Years and Linear Trend FL CSI FL CSI Trend US ICS US ICS Trend 5 Source: Bureau of Economic and Business Research, University of Florida and Thompson Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Price Index As previously reported, year-to-year changes in consumer price indices (CPI) through June 215 are shown in Chart 21. The data indicate that consumer price inflation has moderated noticeably. The latest data shows that the June 215 National CPI was.1 percent above the June 214 figure, while the U.S. Southern Region CPI actually decreased by.1 percent in that same 12-month period. The Miami-Ft. Lauderdale CPI increased by 1.2 percent between June 214 and June

19 Change From Year Earlier 8% 6% 4% Chart 21: CPI Annual Percentage Change Consumer Price Index - Percentage Change From Year Earlier Miami / Ft. Lauderdale US South Region US National 2% % -2% -4% -6% Jun-6 Jun-7 Jun-8 Jun-9 Jun-1 Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Source: BLS Chart 22 shows the components of the Miami-Fort Lauderdale Consumer Price Index for the 12 months ending June 215. The largest increases since June 214 were in other goods and services (7.3 percent) and medical care (5.9 percent). Lower gasoline prices contributed to a 7.2 percent reduction in the transportation segment. Chart 22: Miami-Fort Lauderdale CPI Component Percentage Change Miami - Fort Lauderdale CPI Components 12 month change ending June 215 Other goods and services * Medical care Housing Apparel Food and beverages Education and communication Recreation Transportation * Other goods and services: Tobacco and smoking products, personal care products and services, and miscellaneous personal goods. -1% -8% -6% -4% -2% % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% 12 Month Percentage Change Source: BLS 19

20 Population - Thousands Population As previously reported, the following charts show historic population growth as well as population projections recently updated by the Office of Economic and Demographic Research (EDR) working with the University of Florida's Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR). Regional population growth from 199 to 213 averaged 2.8 percent per year and is shown in Charts 23 and 24. The compound average annual rate of growth for 199 to 213 was 3.5 percent in Collier County, 2.9 percent in Lee, 2.2 percent in Glades County, and 1.7 percent each in Charlotte and Hendry Counties. Chart 25 and its accompanying table show projected population increases from 215 to 24. The regional projected population growth averages a slower 1.5 percent per year, resulting in a population increase of 5 percent for the five-county region from 213 to 24. The total 5-county population projection is 1,79,74 for 24. Lee County population is projected to grow an average of 1.8 percent per year, Collier County at 1.4 percent, and Charlotte County at.8 percent per year. Hendry County s population is projected to grow at an average of.3 percent per year and Glades County at.8 percent per year. Chart 23: Coastal Counties Population Growth 199 to Historic Population Growth Charlotte, Collier, and Lee Counties Lee Collier Charlotte Based on results from Florida Demographic Estimating Conference, February 214 and UF BEBR Florida Population Studies, April

21 Populaton (Thousands) Population - Thousands Chart 24: Inland Counties Population Growth 199 to Historic Population Growth Glades and Hendry Counties 4 35 Hendry Glades Based on results from Florida Demographic Estimating Conference, February 214 and UF BEBR Florida Population Studies, April , 1,8 Chart 25: Population Projections by County Population Projections ,6 1,4 1,2 1, Glades 12,894 13,478 14,11 14,496 14,89 15,227 Hendry 38,121 39,31 39,741 4,275 4,67 4,892 Charlotte 166,34 174,121 18, , , ,729 Collier 345,1 379,59 411, ,93 47,69 492,533 Lee 673, , , ,479 98,632 1,44,323 Based on results from Florida Demographic Estimating Conference, February 214 and UF BEBR Florida Population Studies, April