Data Digest: Florida. June 2011

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Griselda Skinner
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1 Data Digest: Florida June 2011

2 Florida s economic performance continues to lag the nation. Broad indicators of economic activity in Florida show stabilization but little improvement. Comparable U.S. data indicate slow but steady gains. About the Coincident Economic Indicator 120 Coincident Economic Indicator March USA Florida Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia 2

3 Total employment in Florida has stabilized near recession lows, but job gains remain elusive. The current level of employment is at mid-2002 levels. Thousands, Seasonally adjusted 8,500 Florida Payroll Employment March ,000 7,500 Florida lost relatively few jobs during the previous two recessions. 7,000 6,500 Florida shed 11.4% of total employment from peak to trough. 6,000 5,500 Post-recession employment gains in Florida did not materialize for some time after the previous two downturns. 5,000 4, Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 3

4 All industries (except education and health care) saw significant job losses during the downturn, and several continue to post declines. Where job growth has occurred in leisure and hospitality, for example gains have been modest to date. Fed & state government Leisure & hospitality Education & health care Transport/Warehousing/Utilities Over half of Florida s construction jobs have been lost. Local government Other services Business services Financial services Information Retail trade Wholesale trade Manufacturing Construction Total Employment Loss and Gain by Industry: Florida March Percent change trough to present Percent change peak to trough Note: A reading of in the "trough to present" measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these industries. Likewise, a reading of in the "peak to trough" measure indicates the employment continues to increase in these industries. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta The state as a whole shed 11.4% of total employment peak to trough, and is only up 0.8% since the trough (December 2009). 4

5 Leisure and hospitality as well as education and health care show positive employment momentum, while construction, information, financial services and manufacturing employment remain very weak. Retail shows some improvement. About Employment Momentum 5.0 Improving Employment Momentum by Industry: Florida March 2011 Expanding Leisure & hospitality month average annualized percent change Business services Retail trade Financial services Information Other services Manufacturing Health care & pvt education Transport/Warehouse/Utilities Local government Wholesale trade Federal & state government -4.0 Construction Contracting Slipping Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 5

6 Job losses in southwestern Florida metro areas have been staggering. Major declines are not limited to coastal areas. Ocala is down over 17 percent. Vero Beach, Orlando, Punta Gorda, and Daytona are the only areas with more than a 2 percent increase since their troughs. Employment Loss and Gain by Metro Area: Florida March 2011 W. Palm Beach Tampa-St. Pete Tallahassee Vero Beach Sarasota Punta Gorda St. Lucie-Ft. Pierce Pensacola Panama City Orlando Ocala Naples Miami-Ft.L'dale Melbourne Lakeland Jacksonville Gainesville Ft. Myers Daytona Florida Tallahassee is the only Florida metro area that, at 6.1%, had a lower percent change decline peak-to-trough than the U.S. average of 6.3% Percent change trough to present Percent change peak to trough Note: A reading of in the "trough to present" measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these industries. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 6

0 Improving Employment Momentum by Metro Area: Florida March 2011 Expanding 3-month average annualized percent change 2.5 Orlando 2.0 Miami-Ft. Lauderdale West Palm Beach 1.5 Naples Pensacola 1.

7 Orlando and Miami-Ft. Lauderdale show positive employment momentum. Jacksonville employment momentum is improving, while several comparably smaller metro areas, like Melbourne and Panama City, remain very weak. About Employment Momentum 3.0 Improving Employment Momentum by Metro Area: Florida March 2011 Expanding 3-month average annualized percent change 2.5 Orlando 2.0 Miami-Ft. Lauderdale West Palm Beach 1.5 Naples Pensacola 1.0 Lakeland Tampa-St. Pete Sarasota Vero Beach 0.5 Jacksonville Daytona Punta Gorda Tallahassee -0.5 St. Lucie-Ft. Pierce Ocala Ft. Myers Gainesville -1.0 Panama City -1.5 Melbourne -2.0 Contracting Slipping Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 7

8 January 2011 marked the first month since May 2007 that Florida s employment momentum was in the expanding quadrant, albeit barely. Florida spent 33 months in the contracting quadrant. About Employment Momentum Track 4.0 Improving Employment Momentum Track: Florida January 2007 March 2011 Expanding 3-month average percent change, annualized Contracting Slipping Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 8

Florida s unemployment rate (11.9 percent in January 2011) continued to climb long after the overall U.S. rate stabilized and began to fall. Percent of labor force 13.

9 Florida s unemployment rate (11.9 percent in January 2011) continued to climb long after the overall U.S. rate stabilized and began to fall. Percent of labor force 13.0 Unemployment Rate March Florida USA The table shows unemployment rates for metro areas. Current = March Year-ago and January 2007 are included for comparison. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 9

10 Alternative measures of labor underutilization for Florida namely, the U6 figure show that nearly 20 percent of the state s labor force is unemployed or underemployed, a number that is higher than comparable U.S. measures. About Unemployment Rates Percent, seasonally adjusted 25 Measures of Labor Utilization: Unemployment Rate and U6 March United States: U6 United States: Unemployment rate Florida: U6 Florida: Unemployment rate Note: U6=Unemployed + Marginally attached + Part-time economic reasons/civilian labor force + Marginally attached Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 10

11 Initial claims for unemployment have declined substantially in 2011, which may indicate that unemployment has peaked. 4-week moving average 30,000 Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims: Florida April 16, ,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 Initial claims averaged just over 10,000 during Even though the current number of initial claims has declined, they are still elevated. 5, Source: U.S. Department of Labor Employment and Training Administration, Haver Analytics 11

12 Measures of consumer activity have recovered from recession lows. Sales tax revenues are posting year-over-year increases, but consumer confidence fell again in April as perceptions of personal finances a year from now declined sharply = Florida Sales Tax Revenue and Consumer Confidence Florida Consumer Confidence (left scale) Florida Sales Tax Revenue (right scale), Y/Y % Change (3-month average) Sales tax revenues have been helped by healthy activity in the leisure and hospitality sector. International visitors have played an important role in boosting tourism spending Source: Florida Department of Revenue, University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research Center, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 12

13 Regional manufacturing activity accelerated in April, according to the Southeast Purchasing Managers Index produced by Kennesaw State University, based on increases for new orders, production, and employment. 7 Southeast Purchasing Managers Index April The Florida component of the SE PMI was 48.6 in April The increase in factory activity has not led to job increases in Florida s manufacturing sector to date Note: 50+ = Expansion Source: Kennesaw State University, Coles College of Business Econometric Center 13

14 Existing home sales have declined after showing improvement in late 2009 and early Foreclosure and other distressed sales were driving activity in Florida. The level of sales in Florida is well above the lows. Year-over-year percent change 8 Existing Home Sales December USA Florida Source: National Association of Realtors, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 14

15 As a result of low sales and high inventories, new home construction fell to historic lows in Florida and the United States as a whole. 200, , ,000 New Residential Home Construction Permits March ,000 25, , ,000 20, ,000 15,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 USA (left scale) Florida (right scale) 10,000 5, Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Haver Analytics 15

16 Home prices in Florida have declined substantially over the past five years. After stabilizing somewhat in 2009 and early 2010, prices declined a bit further. Jan 2000 = Source: S&P, Haver Analytics Home Prices February 2011 Miami Tampa US Composite FHFA House Price Index 1-yr % change 5-yr % change 10-yr % change USA Florida Ft. Myers Daytona Ft. Lauderdale Gainesville Jacksonville Lakeland Miami Naples Ocala Orlando Melbourne Panama City Pensacola St. Lucie-Fort Pierce Punta Gorda Tallahassee Tampa-St. Petersburg Vero Beach West Palm Beach Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 16

17 Florida Realtors reported that sales were up modestly from year-ago levels, while builders noted sales were down a bit over the same period. About the Real Estate Contact Poll 1.0 Atlanta Fed Real Estate Contact Poll: Florida Current home sales versus year-ago levels February Realtors Homebuilders Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 17

18 Office vacancy rates rose throughout the recession but have stabilized in most areas. As a result, commercial construction activity remains at low levels. Percent USA Ft. Lauderdale Jacksonville Miami Orlando Tampa Office Vacancy Rate December Source: CB Richard Ellis, Haver Analytics 18

19 Despite the national pickup in manufacturing activity, industrial availability rates remain elevated in Florida. Jacksonville s rate deteriorated throughout Percent 24.0 Industrial Availability Rate December USA Ft. Lauderdale Jacksonville Miami 4.0 Orlando 2.0 Tampa Note: There was a break in the series for Fort Lauderdale and Miami from Q through Q Source: CB Richard Ellis, Haver Analytics 19

20 Activity through Florida s ports is rebounding from the downturn during the recession. Exports through southeast Florida in particular have accelerated. $thousands 18,000,000 Port Activity December ,000,000 14,000,000 Miami District, Imports Tampa District, Imports Miami District, Exports Tampa District, Exports 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000, Note: The Miami District includes ports from Key West up the eastern coast to Port St. Lucie. All other Florida ports are in the Tampa District. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Haver Analytics 20

21 For additional sources of information, see our Local Economic Analysis Research Network membership at 21

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