Data Digest: Alabama. February 2013

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1 Data Digest: Alabama February 2013

2 Broad indicators of economic activity for Alabama improved further in December, but they remain well below the indicators for the United States. About the Coincident Economic Indicator Jan 2001 = Coincident Economic Indicator United States Alabama Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia 2

3 Total employment in Alabama declined slightly in December and continues to be well below prerecession levels. Thousands, seasonally adjusted 2,100 Alabama Payroll Employment 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1, Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 3

4 All industries lost jobs during the downturn. The construction industry was the hardest hit, losing more than 36 percent. Many sectors have seen job gains since their troughs, with business services experiencing the largest increase. The information sector continues to lose jobs. Federal government Local government State government Other services Leisure & hospitality Education & healthcare Business services Financial services Information Transportation/Warehouse/Utilities Retail trade Wholesale trade Manufacturing Construction Total Employment Loss and Gain by Industry: Alabama Percent change peak to trough Percent change trough to present Note: A reading of 0.0 in the trough to present measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these industries. Likewise, a reading of 0.0 in the peak to trough measure indicates that employment continues to increase in these industries; in this instance trough to present is the percent change from January 2007 to present Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

3-month average annualized percent change Employment momentum in financial services, manufacturing, business services, wholesale trade, other services, and health care and private education expanded

5 3-month average annualized percent change Employment momentum in financial services, manufacturing, business services, wholesale trade, other services, and health care and private education expanded in December. State government and construction improved. Information continued to be the weakest sector. About Employment Momentum 10 Improving Employment Momentum by Industry: Alabama Health care and private education Business services Wholesale trade Expanding 5 Construction Local government Manufacturing 0 State government Federal government Other services Financial services Transportation/Warehouse/Utilities -5 Retail trade -10 Leisure and hospitality Information -15 Contracting Slipping Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 5

6 Job losses occurred throughout the state during the downturn, but each of Alabama s metro areas has slowly begun to rebound, with Decatur leading the pack. Tuscaloosa Montgomery Mobile Huntsville Gadsden Florence-Muscle Shoals Dothan Decatur Birmingham Auburn-Opelika Anniston-Oxford Alabama Employment Loss and Gain by Metro Area: Alabama Percent change peak to trough Percent change trough to present Note: A reading of 0.0 in the trough to present measure indicates that employment continues to decline in these metro areas. Likewise, a reading of 0.0 in the peak to trough measure indicates that employment continues to increase in these metro areas; in this instance trough to present is the percent change from January 2007 to present. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

7 Employment momentum in Mobile and many of Alabama s smaller metro areas expanded in December. Tuscaloosa, Auburn-Opelika, Birmingham, and Huntsville were in the improving quadrant while momentum for Montgomery slipped. 3-month average annualized percent change About Employment Momentum 8 Improving Employment Momentum by Metro Area: Alabama Expanding Florence-Muscle Shoals 6 Auburn-Opelika Decatur 4 Tuscaloosa Birmingham Dothan Gadsden Anniston-Oxford 2 Huntsville Mobile 0-2 Montgomery -4-6 Contracting Slipping Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 7

8 The state s employment momentum track has varied extensively during Alabama s employment momentum contracted in January, expanded in February, improved in March, and has been in the expanding quadrant from April to December. 3-month average percent change, annualized About Employment Momentum Track Employment Momentum Track January Improving Expanding Contracting Slipping Year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 8

9 Until the recession, Alabama s unemployment rate was well below the U.S. rate. Alabama s unemployment rate fell below the national rate in November, and each of the state s metro areas unemployment rates are below their year-ago levels. Percent of labor force 11 Unemployment Rates United States Alabama Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics 9

10 The number of individuals filing initial claims for unemployment insurance increased over the last month. 4-week moving average 14,000 Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims: Alabama January 19, ,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 Initial claims averaged just over 4,700 during Comparatively, the current number of initial claims is still elevated. 2, Source: U.S Department of Labor Employment and Training Administration, Haver Analytics 10

11 Business sentiment, as measured by the University of Alabama s fourth quarter 2012 survey, fell into negative territory. Sales tax revenue continues to experience positive year-overyear growth. Year-to-year change, 3-month moving average Alabama Sales Tax Revenue and Business Confidence Index Sales Tax Revenue (left scale) Business Confidence Index (right scale) Note: Sales tax data are through ; Business Confidence Index as of fourth quarter Source: Alabama Department of Revenue, University of Alabama Center for Business and Economic Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 25 11

12 Regional manufacturing activity contracted again in December, according to the Southeast Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) produced by Kennesaw State University. The overall regional reading of 46.4 remained in contractionary territory; Alabama s component of the PMI increased to Southeast Purchasing Managers Index The Alabama component of the SE PMI was 50 in Note: 50+ = Expansion Source: Kennesaw State University, Coles College of Business Econometric Center 12

Home prices for both Alabama and the United States increased slightly in the third quarter of 2012 after declining during the first and second quarters of 2012.

13 Home prices for both Alabama and the United States increased slightly in the third quarter of 2012 after declining during the first and second quarters of Q = Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Home Price Index through Q United States Alabama Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Haver Analytics Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 13

14 The number of new home construction permits issued in Alabama has been basically flat and remains near historically low levels of activity. 200,000 New Residential Home Construction Permits 5, ,000 4, ,000 4, ,000 3, ,000 3, ,000 2,500 80,000 2,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 United States (left scale) Alabama (right scale) 1,500 1, Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Haver Analytics 14

15 For additional sources of information, see our Local Economic Analysis Research Network membership at 15

Data Digest: Alabama. June 2013

Data Digest: Alabama. June 2013 Data Digest: Alabama June 2013 Broad indicators of economic activity for Alabama remain well below the indicators for the United States. About the Coincident Economic Indicator Jan 2001 = 100 120 Coincident