Economic Outlook for New England
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- Jasmine York
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1 Economic Outlook for New England Dr. Jeffrey Thompson Director, Senior Economist and Policy Advisor New England Public Policy Center Connecticut Power and Energy Society The Future of Energy: What s the Deal? Disclaimer: The views expressed here are those of the speaker and do not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston or the Federal Reserve System.
2 About the Boston Federal Reserve Bank Federal Reserve System Board of Governors (Washington., DC) Regional Fed banks (12, including Boston) Conducts monetary policy, bank supervision NEPPC Produces research that informs public policy in New England Recent issues: opioid epidemic, affordable housing, criminal records reform 2
3 State Coincident Economic Activity Indexes Indexed to Pre-Recession Peaks Recession US CT ME MA NH RI VT Aug-04 Aug-06 Aug-08 Aug-10 Aug-12 Aug-14 Aug-16 Aug-18 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, NBER, Haver Analytics 3
4 Real GDP Per Capita CT ME MA NH RI VT US Year Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Haver Analytics 4
5 Non-Agricultural Employment Indexed to Pre-recession Peaks Recession CT ME MA NH RI VT US 0.80 Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14 Sep-16 Sep-18 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, NBER, Haver Analytics 5
6 Employment Growth by Industry Percent Change, August August 2018 Construction Leisure & Hospitality Professional & Business Services Manufacturing Other Services Education & Health Wholesale Trade Transportation, Warehousing, and Utilities Finance Retail Trade Government Information US NE Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics Percentage 6
7 Unemployment Rates Percentage Recession NE US 2 0 Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14 Sep-16 Sep-18 Sep-17 Sep-18 United States New England Connecticut Maine Massachusetts New Hampshire Rhode Island Vermont Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, NBER, Haver Analytics 7
8 Unemployment Rates in New England by Metropolitan Areas VT RI NH MA ME CT Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk Danbury Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford New Haven Norwich-New London-Westerly Waterbury Bangor Lewiston-Auburn Portland-South Portland Barnstable Town Boston-Cambridge-Nashua Leominster-Gardner New Bedford Pittsfield Springfield Worcester Dover-Durham Manchester Portsmouth Providence-Warwick Burlington-South Burlington Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Aug-17 Aug-18
9 Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Indexed to Average of Axis Title Recession NE US Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14 Sep-16 Sep-18 Source: Department of Labor, NBER, Haver Analytics, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston 9
10 Consumer Price Index 8 6 Percent Change from Year Earlier Recession US Boston -2-4 Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14 Sep-16 Sep-18 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, NBER, Haver Analytics 10
11 Components of the Consumer Price Index Percent Change, September September 2018 All Items All Items, Less Food and Energy Fuel & Utilities Shelter Transportation Education and Communication Food Medical Care Recreation US Boston Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics
12 Repeat-Sales Home Price Index Percent Change from Year Earlier Recession US FHFA Purchase-Only NE FHFA Purchase-Only US S&P Case-Shiller -15 Q2-04 Q2-06 Q2-08 Q2-10 Q2-12 Q2-14 Q2-16 Q2-18 Source: FHFA, NBER, S&P/Case-Shiller, Haver Analytics 12
13 House Price Changes in New England Metropolitan Areas Percent Change, Q Q Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk 2.0 VT RI NH MA ME CT Hartford-W. Hartford-E. Hartford New Haven-Milford Norwich-New London Bangor Lewiston-Auburn Portland-S.Portland-Biddeford Barnstable Town Boston-Cambridge-Quincy Pittsfield Springfield Worcester Manchester-Nashua Providence-New Bedford-Fall River Burlington-S. Burlington Single Family Homes Source: Freddie Mac Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, Haver Analytics 13
14 Consumer Confidence Indexed to U.S. Average of Recession US NE 20 0 Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12 Sep-14 Sep-16 Sep-18 Source: The Conference Board, NBER, Haver Analytics 14
15 NEEP Forecast for New England Source: New England Economic Partnership, Fall Forecast, November
16 State Susceptibility to Fiscal Distress in Recession Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence; When the Credit Cycle Turns, U.S. States May be Tested in Unprecedented Ways 16
17 New England States on U.S. News Top Ten List Source: U.S. News and World Report: 17
18 Net Migration Rates in New England Rate per Thousand Persons Time Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics Net Domestic Net International Net Total 18
19 Thank You Dr. Jeffrey Thompson Director, Senior Economist and Policy Advisor
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