The Massachusetts Economy: 1993, Today, and 2021

Transcription

1 The Massachusetts Economy: 1993, Today, and 2021 Presentation to MassEcon January 19, 2018 Alan Clayton-Matthews School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs Northeastern University NEEP, MassBenchmarks

2 1993

3 3,700 Payroll Employment, Massachusetts (thousands) 3,500 3,300 3,100 2,900 2,700 2,

4 Massachusetts Unemployment Rate

5 Net Migration into Massachusetts 60,000 Number of Persons in Year Ending July 1 40,000 20, ,000-40,000-60,000 not available International Domestic not available -80, Source: Census Bureau: Population Estimates Branch

6 70 Labor Force Participation Rate, Massachusetts

7 Manufacturing has decreased as a share of Massachusetts payroll employment, while health services and professional services have increased Government 14% Construction 3% Manufacturing 15% Government 13% Construction 4% Manufacturing 7% Other Services 3% Leisure & Hospitality 8% Other Services 4% Leisure & Hospitality 10% Trade, Transportation, Utilities 16% Trade, Transportation, Utilities 18% Information 3% Health & Social Services 13% Education 4% Professional Services 12% Finance 7% Information 3% Health & Social Services 17% Education 5% Professional Services 15% Finance 6%

8 Educational Attainment Percent of Resident Population 25 Years and over with at Least a Bachelor s Degree, Source: U.S. Census Bureau; : Decennial Census; : American Community Survey, 1-year estimates 8

9 Today

10 Growth in Real Product, Massachusetts vs. U.S Source: U.S., Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA); Massachusetts: through 2017Q1, BEA; 2017Q2 and later, MassBenchmarks. 8.0 Quarterly Growth at Annual Rates (%) Projected Massachusetts U.S.

11 Economists see corporate tax changes as a bigger game changer than the personal income tax changes.

12 Bachelor s Degree Status Share of the Population 25 and over with at Least a Bachelor s, Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, S1501 (Educational Attainment), 1-year estimates; UMDI analysis Note: The Boston-Cambridge Region consists of Middlesex and Suffolk counties. 12

13 Sector Concentrations by Region Sector Strength in Boston-Cambridge Region and the Rest of State, 2015 Boston-Cambridge Region Rest of State Source: U.S. Census, County Business Patterns; UMDI analysis Note: The Boston-Cambridge Region consists of Middlesex and Suffolk counties. 13

14 140 Fertility Rate: Births per 1,000 Women, by Age, Source: National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) Massachusetts U.S

15 100, Mortality Rates per 100,000 Population, , , New England U.S.

16 Labor force participation rates are higher in Massachusetts at all age cohorts except for the college-aged Labor Force Particpation Rates, Females, Last 48 Months Source: Current Population Survey Labor Force Particpation Rates, Males, Last 48 Months MA U.S. MA U.S.

17 On net, Massachusetts population growth is boosted by migration, yet more people leave the state than come to Massachusetts from other states.

18 Immigration is key to the state s future labor force growth. 6,000 5,000 Average Annual Net Migration by Age, Massachusetts, Source: American Community Survey, PUMS; calculations by author. 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, ,000 < ,000-3,000-4,000 Domestic Domestic + International

19 2021

20 Labor force growth will slow, constrained by an aging population. 1.8% 1.6% Population and Labor Force Growth, Massachusetts (Percent growth from prior year) Souce: Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics ( ); NEEP ( ) 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Population Labor Force

21 Despite attaining a full-employment economy 8.0 Unemployment Rate, Massachusetts Source: : BLS; : NEEP

22 employment growth will be constrained by the number of available workers. 2.5% Total Payroll Employment, Percent Growth from Prior Year 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% Source: Federal Reserve Board (U.S.), NEEP (Massachusetts) 0.0% Massachusetts Payroll Employment U.S. Civilian Employment

23 Construction will be the fastest growing sector, but health services and skilled business sectors will add the most jobs. Average Annual Growth by Employment Sector, , Massachusetts Source: NEEP Total Nonfarm employment (000's) 0.9% Construction 1.7% Manufacturing -0.4% Trade, Transportation, Utilities 0.5% Information 0.3% Financial Activities 0.8% Professional & Business Services 1.3% Education & Health Services 1.4% Leisure & Hospitality Other Services 0.8% 0.9% Government 0.5% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%

24 Improvements in productivity will enable output and incomes to grow faster than employment. Growth in Output per Payroll Worker, Massachusetts Source: : BEA, BLS; : NEEP 2.0% 1.5% 1.7% 1.3% 1.5% 1.6% 1.0% 0.9% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% -0.5% % -1.0% -1.5% -2.0% -1.8% -2.5%