Metro Boston Projections Update. Tim Reardon Director of Data Services Metropolitan Area Planning Council

Transcription

1 Metro Boston Projections Update Tim Reardon Director of Data Services Metropolitan Area Planning Council Boston MPO November 16, 2017

2 Presentation Outline Regional Growth since 2010 Regional Population Projections Regional Household Projections Land Use Model Q & A

3 Averate Annual Growth Rate Population Growth Rates Annual Population Growth Rates by Community Type, Metro Boston % 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% Inner Core Regional Urban Centers Maturing Suburbs Developing Suburbs -1.5% Source: U.S. Census, Decennial Census and Population Estimates

4 250,000 MAPC Projections vs Population Estimates , Metro Boston 200,000 Region has grown faster than projected, especially in suburban community types 150, ,000 50,000 Developing Suburbs Maturing Suburbs Regional Urban Centers Inner Core - MAPC Stronger Region Scenario (prorated) U.S. Census Population Estimates

5 Domestic Outmigration is a Drag on Growth 50,000 40,000 Components of Population Change, Metro Boston (5 County) 30,000 20,000 10, ,000 Total Population Change Net international Migration Natural Increase Net Domestic Migration -20,000-30,

6 Projected Demand vs. Permitted Units, , Metro Boston 120, ,000 New multifamily units meeting only 64% of estimated demand 80,000 60,000 40,000 Multifamily -- Developing Suburbs Multifamily -- Maturing Suburbs Multifamily -- Regional Urban Centers Multifamily -- Inner Core Single Family -- Developing Suburbs 20,000 Single Family -- Maturing Suburbs Single Family -- Regional Urban Centers 0 Projected Demand (prorated) Permitted Units, Single Family -- Inner Core

7 Change School-age residents: projected vs. enrollment Source: Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, MAPC Analysis

8 Employment Change Post-Recession Employment Growth, by Community Type, Metro Boston (labeled with percent of total) 250, ,000 19% Developing Suburbs 150,000 19% Maturing Suburbs Nearly two-thirds of recent job growth is in urban communities 100,000 50,000-17% 15% 22% 8% 45% 54% Regional Urban Centers Inner Core Source: MA EOLWD, ES-202

9 Regional Population Projections

10 MassDOT Projections Committee Participants: MassDOT 13 Regional Planning Agencies / MPOs EOEEA, EOHED Technical Consultant: Umass Donahue Institute Population Estimates Program Methods: Traditional Cohort Component: Births Deaths + Migration Migration rates based on period Calibrated to match 2015 population estimates Benchmark region municipalities > RPAs Preliminary projections released November 10 Future work: labor force estimates, employment by RPA

11 UMDI projections: An even Stronger Region? 4,000,000 3,800,000 3,600,000 Historical Population and Projections, MAPC Region UMDI - PROVISIONAL MAPC Stronger Region 17.5% 14.9% 3,400,000 3,200,000 3,000,000 2,800,000 Census 2000 Census

12 UMDI Projections: An Aging Region MAPC Region Population by Age , UMDI - PROVISIONAL 300, , , , ,000 50,000 Population 2015 Population 2020 Population 2025 Population 2030 Population 2035 Population 2040 Census

13 Household Projections

14 Labor Force and Household projections (MAPC) Refine existing regional population and household model Population detail: Race & Ethnicity Education* Labor force participation* Wage* Headship rate* Household detail Age of householder Families with children Household size Income ($) Workers Tenure * * These variables may be adjusted to test a range of assumptions and create multiple scenarios

15 Household Agents Categorized by householder age, household size, household structure, income NON-FAMILY FAMILY

16 Land Use Projections

17 MAPC s Land Use Allocation Model Allocates growth to Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs) using Cube Land modeling software. Real estate market equilibrium between suppliers (developers) and consumers (households and firms) Accessibility to jobs & labor is explicit factor in where firms/households locate Economic model assuming rational behavior Real estate properties are occupied by the household or firm willing to pay the most Developers maximize profits when deciding what type of buildings to provide

18 Integrated Land Use / Transportation Modeling Household and Employer Location Preferences Land Use Regulation Accessibility & Congestion Future Land Use Transportation Projects & Programs Travel Demand

19 Land Use Allocation Model - Specifications Model components 18 household agent types 11 employer/firm types (NAICS codes) 8 real estate types TAZs Key factors Peak period travel times to every other zone, by auto and transit Transit station proximity Neighborhood demographics Current rents and commercial lease prices, by zone Land use inputs Development capacity, by real estate type Subsidies for certain households or firms Development pipeline / Real estate supply Products Households classified by size, workers, income, auto availability Employment by sector New real estate square footage

20 Massbuilds A key input 4,000 developments statewide

21 Zonal Allocation, 2015 LRTP projections (households) Municipal Household Totals based on 2014 population and household projections Regional household totals (by agent type).. MAPC Boston Cambridge Somerville Wrentham TAZ 1 TAZ 2 etc TAZ 2456 TAZ 2457

22 NEW Land Use Allocation Model Regional household totals (by agent type).. Inputs: development pipeline, zoning capacity, transportation accessibility, etc MAPC TAZ 1 TAZ 2 etc TAZ 2456 TAZ 2457 Boston No predetermined municipal projections!

23 Creating Regional Scenarios Modify assumptions regarding: Migration rates Headship rates and family formation Education levels and income Development pipeline Zoning capacity Public subsidies Household location preferences Use scenarios for LRTP modeling, MAPC Regional Plan Update

24 Thank you Tim Reardon Director of Data Services