751,000. Forecasting Our Growth POPULATION GROWTH: 2010 TO 2050

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1 Forecasting Our Growth Greater Des Moines population will change dramatically over the next 35 years. The Des Moines Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) has developed a scenario to describe expected increase in population, shifts in demographics, and geographic patterns of the population and employment changes. The scenario is used for making informed decisions about which investments and patterns will bring the greatest benefit to citizens in the region, reduce disparities, increase opportunities, and move the region closer to meeting performance goals. Such goals include optimizing the transportation system, improving access to active transportation options (transit, walking, and biking), improving energy efficiency, and providing equitable and safe modes of transportation. By the year 2050, the population is forecasted to increase by 56 percent, adding 270,000 residents to the region. POPULATION GROWTH: 2010 TO Population Growth Polk City Growth Growth PERCENT POPULATION INCREASE BY 2050 Ankeny Growth JASPER 1 dot = 100 people Bondurant Grimes Johnston JASPER Mitchellville Altoona Urbandale Waukee Clive Windsor Heights Pleasant Hill Des Moines West Des Moines Van Meter Carlisle Cumming 750,000 G R E AT E R D E S M O I N E S R E S I D E N T S B Y Norwalk MEASURE Population 480, ,000 Housing Units 202, , , , , , ,000 Households 189, , , , , ,000

2 POPULATION & HOUSING GROWTH: The scenario for Greater Des Moines calls for a population increase of 270,000 and a housing unit increase of 115,000 by Using data collected by the U.S. Census Bureau through the American Community Survey (ACS), Special Census Program, Population Estimate Program, and Annual Building Permit Survey the of Greater Des Moines can be estimated during intermediate years. Between 2014 and 2015, four member cities - Ankeny, Bondurant, Grimes, and West Des Moines - completed full population counts as part of the Special Census Program. Additionally, the City of Clive completed a partial population count in ,000 APPROXIMATE POPULATION GROWTH IN GREATER DES MOINES BETWEEN 2010 AND Estimated Growth 1 dot = 100 people ACS ESTIMATED POPULATION GROWTH BY TAZ: Population & Housing Growth 2010 & 2014 Population City/County Percent Growth Housing Growth Buildings Units Altoona 14,541 16, Ankeny* 45,582 54, ,861 4,288 Bondurant* 3,860 5, Carlisle 3,876 4, Clive* 15,447 17, Cumming Des Moines 204, , ,018 Grimes* 8,246 11, ,089 Indianola 14,782 15, Johnston 17,278 20, ,246 Mitchellville 2,254 2, Norwalk 8,941 9, Pleasant Hill 8,785 9, Polk City 3,418 4, Urbandale 39,463 43, ,030 1,146 Van Meter 1,016 1, Waukee 13,790 17, ,009 1,453 West Des Moines* 56,609 63, ,616 2,882 Windsor Heights 4,860 4, Dallas County 66,135 77, ,452 1,899 Madison County 15,679 15, Polk County 430, , ,169 15,508 Warren County 46,225 47, ,236 17,000 ADDITIONAL HOUSING UNITS PERMITTED Estimated population for the year 2014 based U.S. Census Population Estimate Program, April 1, 2010 to July 1, * Members completed full special census City of Clive also completed a partial special census in Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates ( ), Special Census Program 2014, Special Census Program 2015., Population Estimate Program April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2014, U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Building Permits Survey,

3 EMPLOYMENT GROWTH: Employment Growth Growth Growth Polk City 143,000 additional jobs by Growth Ankeny J A S P E R 1 dot = 100 jobs Grimes Johnston Bondurant Mitchellville JASPE Urbandale Altoona Waukee Clive Windsor Heights Pleasant Hill Des Moines West Des Moines Van Meter Carlisle Cumming Norwalk PERCENT EMPLOYMENT INCREASE 40BY 2050 EMPLOYMENT GROWTH: INDUSTRY SECTOR GROWTH Natural Resources and Construction 12,000 16,000 4,000 Manufacturing 16,000 18,000 2,000 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 56,000 59,000 3,000 Information 7,000 6,000-1,000 Financial Activities 46,000 47,000 1,000 Professional and Business Services 36,000 42,000 7,000 Educational and Health Services 37,000 41,000 4,000 Leisure and Hospitality 25,000 29,000 3,000 Other Services 10,000 11,000 1,000 Government 37,000 37,000 0 Total Non-Farm 282, ,000 24,000 Employment for Greater Des Moines based on the share of county employment within the metropolitan planning area as determined by the scenario for Mobilizing Tomorrow. 24,000 APPROXIMATE EMPLOYMENT GROWTH IN GREATER DES MOINES BETWEEN 2010 AND 2014 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Covered Employment series, 2010 and Four-County employment data available online at:

4 DRIVER S LICENSE TRENDS A recent study by the University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute examined the trends in licensed drivers in the United States from 1983 to 2014 shown in the table. Major demographic shifts call for more multimodal transportation options, especially as the over 65 and under 19 age cohorts are generally driving less. DRIVER S LICENSE TRENDS: Data collected by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) shows the proportion of individuals in the United States with a driver s license declined for all age cohorts between 2011 and During the same timeframe, the State of Iowa saw declines in the proportion of individuals with driver s licenses for the age cohorts and Declines in all age cohorts Declines ages & Sources: FHWA, Highway Statistics Series, ; University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute; National Public Radio.

5 METHODOLOGY STEPS TO DEVELOP THE 2050 GROWTH SCENARIO Establish base-year population and employment data for MPO, subareas, and Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ) Determine employment allocations out to 2050 for each subarea following methodology used in The Tomorrow Plan Determine population allocations out to 2050 for each subarea following methodology used in the Tomorrow Plan Divide subarea control totals by jurisdictions based on an average allocation from The Tomorrow Plan s Scenarios Community representatives worked with the MPO staff to assign their allocated using the Envision Tomorrow software 6 Allocated aggregated to TAZs for use in the travel demand model Using REMI Data The MPO collaborates with the Iowa DOT to obtain Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) data for the counties in the MPO planning area. REMI data contains annual population projections broken down by age cohort and employment projections broken down by industry sector. The county-level data then gets allocated to the MPO planning area and broken down further to the levels seen below. four-county area and mpo planning area 1 mpo planning area, subareas, and taz geographies J A S P E R 7 Allocation of Growth County MPO Planning Area 5 Subarea 4 Traffic analysis zone (TAZ) MPO Planning Area Subarea TAZ For more information on the 2050 Growth Scenario, view Appendix C of Mobilizing Tomorrow