Rowing with the Region

Transcription

1 Rowing with the Region Tim Reardon Metropolitan Area Planning Council A Better Cambridge March 28, 2017 Cambridge s Role in Solving Metro Boston s Housing Crisis

2 Housing production is a prerequisite to long-term economic growth in Massachusetts

3 Baby Boomers comprise 49% of region s labor force 350, , , , , In Labor Force Not In Labor Force Baby Boomers One million workers born before 1970 will retire by 2030 (39% of labor force) 100,000 50, , , , , , , , Status Quo Baby Boomers Region is not producing /importing enough young workers to fill vacant positions Source: MAPC Population Projections , , , , , , ,000 50, , Status Quo Age Baby Boomers plus

4 A Stronger Region is Possible Net in-migration of Continued 10,000 per year outmigration = = +175,000 workers no labor force by 2040 growth (7% increase) 2,750,000 2,700,000 2,650,000 2,600,000 2,550,000 2,500,000 2,450,000 Population in the Labor Force, Metro Boston, , Status Quo vs. Stronger Region Status Status Quo Quo Stronger Region 2,690,000 2,643,000 2,616,000 2,515,500 2,526,000 2,543,000 2,509,000 2,400,

5 Net Domestic Migration (to/from other US Counties) We are Struggling to be Stronger 4,000 Net Domestic Migration, Metro Boston Counties, , ,000-4,000 Plymouth County Norfolk County Essex County -6,000 Suffolk County -8,000-10, Middlesex County Metro Boston now losing 18,000 residents annually to other states housing affordability is a major culprit

6 Housing demand: Population growth is only half the equation (or less)

7 Average Number of People per Household Average Household Size, Metro Boston, % decline since % drop projected Status Quo Projections Source: Decennial Census, MAPC Population Projections 2014

8 Same number of residents form more households, need more housing units people = people =

9 Long-term economic growth requires 435,000 new units in Metro Boston, ~500,000 units statewide, by , ,000 Total Net Housing Demand, by Type, Metro Boston, , , ,000 Multi-Family -Rent 250,000 95,000 Multi-Family -Own 200, ,000 53,000 11,000 91,000 6,000 Single Family -Rent 100,000 50, , ,000 Single Family -Own - Status Quo Stronger Region Source: MAPC Population Projections, 2014

10 Our housing affordability problem: It s not just a housing problem

11 25 years of wage polarization Occupational Group Change by Household Income Category; Metro Boston, 1990 to 2014 Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Business Operations Specialists Architecture and Engineering Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Office and Administrative Support Healthcare Support Building and Grounds Maintenance Sales and Related Construction and Extraction Production Transportation and Material Moving Food Preparation and Serving Personal Care and Service Protective Service Legal Life, Physical, and Social Science Community and Social Services Computer and Mathematical Education, Training, and Library Management, Business, Science, and Arts Healthcare Practitioners and Technical -100,000-80,000-60,000-40,000-20, ,000 40,000 60,000 80, ,000 Decline in core middle income occupations Low-income growth, middle income decline Disproportionate low-income growth Disproportionate high-income growth Extremely Low-Income Very Low-Income Low-Income Lower Middle-Income Upper Middle-Income High-Income Data Sources: U.S. Census Public Use Microdata Sample 1990 and

12 The Incredible Shrinking Middle Class 35,000 Change in Working Households, Metro Boston, 2000 to ,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, ,000 Extremely Low Income (<30% AM) Very Low Income (30-50% AMI) Low Income (50-80% AMI) Lower Upper Middle (80 - Middle ( % AMI) - 120% AMI) Moderately High ( % AMI) Very High ( % AMI) Extremely High (>200% AMI) Data Sources: PUMS, MAPC Analysis; Working Households defined as households with at least one wage earner who is not a student

13 What about Cambridge?

14 Net Migrants in/(out) in Previous Decade Is Cambridge still a A Stop on the Way? Net Migration by Age, City of Cambridge, 1990s and 2000s 15, , ,000 0 (5,000) (10,000) plus Age at End of Decade Source: U.S. Census, MassCHIP, MAPC Analysis

15 You can get there from here Average Cantabrigian can reach 260,000 jobs within a 30 minute transit commute; better than 95% of the region.

16 Same share of jobs, growing share of region s payroll Cambridge's share of the region's jobs and share of the region's payroll, % 8.0% 7.0% Cambridge Share of Metro Boston Payroll 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% Cambridge Share of Metro Boston Jobs 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0%

17 Student households in Cambridge: 15.7% and growing 8,000 7,000 6,000 Cambridge Student Households ,288 6,911 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, Source: PUMS, MAPC Analysis. Student households are defined as nonfamily households with no children <18, where more than half of household members are students

18 Income Polarization Hitting Cambridge, too 8,000 Cambridge Working Households by Income Category, 2000 to ,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Extremely Low Income (<30% AM) Very Low Income Low Income (50 - (30-50% AMI) 80% AMI) Lower Middle (80-100% AMI) Upper Middle ( % AMI) Moderately High ( % AMI) Very High ( % AMI) Extremely High (>200% AMI)

19 Net Housing Unit Demand, On the Horizon: 20,000 Millennial Households Net Housing Demand by Year Born, Cambridge, Stronger Region, ,000 20,000 15,000 16,800 10,000 Multifamily Rent Multifamily Own Single Family Rent Single Family Own 5,000 5, ,100 (900) (800) (1,200) (500) (1,300) (2,500) -5,000 (7,600) (4,200) -10,000-15,000 Born 1990 & after Born Born Born before 1950 Age Cohort

20 Percent of Projected Housing Demand Diversity of Housing Needed Projected Household Change, by Income Level, City of Cambridge, % 90% 100% 90% Projected Household Change by Size, City of Cambridge, % 70% 80% 70% 4+ People 60% 50% 40% Moderate / High Income (>80% AMI) Low Income (50-80% AMI) 60% 50% 40% 2-3 People 30% 20% Very Low Income (30-50% AMI) 30% 20% Single Person 10% 0% Extremely Low Income (<30% AMI) 10% 0%

21 Percent of 2010 Housing Units Cambridge on Track to meet housing demand, but just barely 10.0% 9.0% Housing Permit Rate vs. Projections, , Selected Inner Core Municipalities 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Building Permits, Projected Demand, Source: US Census Building Permit Program; data for Chelsea, Everett, Somerville, Malden, Medford not available due to incomplete reporting

22 5 years in: 10,000 unit shortage 30,000 Building Permits vs. Projected Demand, Selected Inner Core Municipalities, ,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Permits Projected Demand Source: US Census Building Permit Program; Data includes Belmont, Boston, Brookline, Cambridge, Malden, Melrose, Newton, Revere, Waltham, Watertown, Winthrop. Other municipalities not included due to lack of reporting.

23 Tim Reardon, Director of Data Services Metropolitan Area Planning Council