Key Findings from Recent Joint Center Research Chris Herbert Real Estate Trends in Central Ohio January 26, 2017

Transcription

1 Key Findings from Recent Joint Center Research Chris Herbert Real Estate Trends in Central Ohio January 26, 2017

2 Outlook for Household Growth Through 2035

3 Millennials and Baby Boomers Will Drive Coming Shifts in Population Age Structure and Household Growth Population (Millions) Under and Source: US Census Bureau, 2014 Population Projections. 3

4 New JCHS Household Projections Factor in Changing Household Formation Rates 4

5 Latest Population Projections Boosted by Upward Adjustment in Immigration Levels 1.75 Net Annual International Immigration (Millions) Projections 2014 Projections Historic Population Estimates Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates and 2014 Population Projections. 5

6 JCHS Projections for Fall In Between Others Estimates, and are Consistent with Historic Growth Levels from the 1990s Household Growth (Millions of Households) Decennial Census Urban Instutute JCHS MBA* JCHS Note: MBA Projections are for Sources: Urban Institute (2015) Headship and Homeownership, What does the Future Hold; Mortgage Bankers Association (2015) Housing Demand: Demographics and the Numbers Behind the Coming Multi-Million Increase in Households; and JCHS tabulations of 2016 JCHS Household Projections. 6

7 Implications for Housing of a Rapidly Aging Population

8 By 2035 One in Three Households Will be 65+ and One in Ten Will be Households (Millions) Under plus Source: 2016 JCHS Household Projections 8

9 Numbers of Owner and Renter Households Over 80 Will Double Projected Older Households by Age Group (Millions) Owners Renters and Over Source: 2016 JCHS Household and Tenure Projections. 9

10 Disability Prevalence Increases with Age Share of Population with Disabilities by Age Group (Percent) and Type of Disability Over Mobility Self-Care Household Activity Notes: Mobility disability is defined as difficulty walking, getting in and out of bed, and climbing one flight of stairs; self-care disability as difficulty eating, dressing, toileting, and bathing; and household activity disability as difficulty with meal preparation, food shopping, using the telephone, taking medication, money management, housework, and driving. Source: JCHS tabulations of University of Michigan, 2014 Health and Retirement Survey. 10

11 The Number of Households With a Disability Will Increase Substantially by 2035 Number of Disabled Households Aged 65+ in 2014 and 2035, by Type of Disability (Millions) Mobility Disability Self-Care Disability Household Activity Disability Owner Households Renter Households Notes: Mobility disability includes difficulty walking, getting in and out of bed, and climbing one flight of stairs. Self-care disability includes difficulty eating, dressing, toileting, and bathing. Household activity disability includes meal preparation, food shopping, using the telephone, taking medication, money management, housework, and driving. Source: JCHS tabulations of 2014 Health and Retirement Survey data and JCHS Household and Tenure Projections. 11

12 Cost Burdens are Lowest among Owners without Mortgages Share of Households by Age Group (Percent) and Over and Over and Over Owners without Owners with Renters Mortgages Mortgages Severely Burdened Moderately Burdened Notes: Moderately / severely cost burdened is defined as paying 30 50% / over 50% of income on housing. Source: JCHS tabulations of US Census Bureau, 2014 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates. 12

13 More Older Households are Carrying Higher Amounts of Mortgage Debt into Retirement Share with Mortgage Debt (Percent) Median Mortgage Debt (Thousands of 2013 dollars) Share of Owners Aged 65 and Over with Mortgage Debt [Left scale] Median Value of Mortgage Debt for Owners With Debt Aged 65 and Over [Right scale] Notes: Mortgage debt is debt on a primary residence. The share with mortgage debt is among owners only. Median value of mortgage debt is among owners with mortgage debt only and in constant 2013 dollars adjusted for inflation using the CPI-U-RS. Source: JCHS tabulations of US Federal Reserve Board, 2013 Survey of Consumer Finances. 13

14 By Million Older Households Will Be Cost Burdened, 8 Million Severely So Households (Millions) Owners Source: JCHS projections. Moderate Severe Renters 14

15 Potential Future Paths for Owning and Renting

16 The National Homeownership Rate Has Fallen Back to Early 1990s Levels and Beyond 70 Homeownership Rate (Percent) Source: JCHS tabulations of US Census Bureau, Housing Vacancy Surveys. 16

17 But Rates Have Fallen Well Below Early 1990s Rates for All But Oldest Age Groups Change in Homeownership Rate Since 1990 (Percentage Points) Age of Household Head and Over Note: Based on 3-year annual average rates. Source: JCHS tabulations of US Census Bureau, Current Population Surveys.

18 Foreclosure-Related Exits Account for Most of the Decline in Owning Among Older Households 12% Homeownership Rate Decline & Foreclosure Exits by Age Group 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% >75 Homeownership Rate Decline, Estimated Foreclosure Rate Source: JCHS tabulations of CPS ASEC and CoreLogic data on foreclosure completions. 18

19 Homeownership Rate Projection Scenarios 1. Base Scenario: 2015 constant rates by age, race/ethnicity, & family type 2. Low Scenario: Continue cohort trend through 2020 Constant 2020 rates thereafter 3. High Scenario: Rates rebound to higher of 1995 vs rate 19

20 Scenarios Differ Most at Middle Ages 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Projected Homeownership Rate by Age in Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario Actual Source: JCHS projections based on CPS ASEC and Census population projections. 20

21 Projection Scenarios Produce a 2025 Range from 61 to 65 Percent 66% 65% 64% 63% 62% 61% Projected Homeownership Rate, % Scenario 1 - Base Scenario 2 - Low Scenario 3 - High Source: JCHS projections. 21

22 Three Scenarios Present Very Different Trajectories for Future Homeownership Rates by Age Homeownership Rate 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% < Plus 1995 Age Curve 2015 Age Curve 22

23 Three Scenarios Present Very Different Trajectories for Future Homeownership Rates by Age Homeownership Rate 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% < Plus 1995 Age Curve 2015 Age Curve Birth Cohort Trajectory 23

24 Three Scenarios Present Very Different Trajectories for Future Homeownership Rates by Age Homeownership Rate 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% < Plus 1995 Age Curve 2015 Age Curve Birth Cohort Trajectory Projection: 5-yr Cohort Trends Projection: 2015 Constant Rates Projection: 1995 Constant Rates 24

25 Under Base Projections Owner and Renter Growth Would be Similar to Period Historical and Projected Average Annual Household Growth (Millions) Owners Low Base High Renters Low Base High Source: JCHS projections. 25

26 Rethinking How We Measure Housing Affordability

27 Number of Cost-Burdened Renters Still Near Record High while Number of Cost-Burdened Owners Continues to Fall 24 Number of Cost-Burdened Households (Millions) Owners Renters Note: Cost burdens are defined as housing costs (rent and utilities) that are more than 30 percent of household income. Source: JCHS tabulations of US Census Bureau, American Community Surveys. : 27

28 Even Moderate Income Renters Struggle to Afford Housing, Particularly in High-Cost Metros Share of Cost-Burdened Renter Households (Percent) Less than $15,000 $15,000 29,999 $30,000 $44,999 $45,000 74,999 $75,000 and Over All Renter Households Household Income Cleveland Phoenix Los Angeles Notes: Cost burdens are defined as housing costs of more than 30% of household income. The top ten high-cost metros are based on metro rankings by median monthly gross rents. Source: JCHS tabulations of the American Community Survey,

29 A Residual Income Approach to Assessing Cost Burdens Illuminates Extreme Challenges Facing Lowest-Income Households 6,000 Average Monthly Income and Costs in 2015 (Dollars) 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 (1,000) Household Income Category Under $15,000 $15,000-$29,999 $30,000-$44,999 $45,000-$74,999 Household Income Non-Housing Expenses Residual Income Available for Housing Costs Gross Rent Notes: Extremely (Very Low, Low and Moderate) incomes are defined as less than 30 percent of area median income ( %, %, %). Residual income is household income less non-housing expenses. Renters include only households with up to four members. Sources: Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies tabulations of data from US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2015, Center for Women s Welfare self-sufficiency standards, Urban Institute and Brookings Tax Policy Center. 29

30 Share of Cost Burdened Renters in Cleveland Based on 30% of Income Standard and Residual Income Approach Cost Burdened Renters in 2015 (Percent) 0 <$15K $ K $30- $44.9K Household Income $45- $74.9K Single Persons Families with Children Couples Household Type 30% of Income Standard Residual Income Standard All Renters Notes: Extremely (Very Low, Low and Moderate) incomes are defined as less than 30 percent of area median income ( %, %, %). Residual income is household income less non-housing expenses. Sources: Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies tabulations of data from US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2015, Center for Women s Welfare self-sufficiency standards, Urban Institute and Brookings Tax Policy Center. 30

31 A Residual Income Measure Produces a Different Pattern of Affordability in Low and High Cost Areas Impact of Switching to Residual-Income Method on Renter Cost Burden Rates (Percent) <$15K $ K $30-$44.9K$45-$74.9K Single Persons Los Angeles Phoenix Cleveland Families with Kids All Renters Notes: Differences in burdens are relative to those using the traditional 30% of income standard. Extremely (Very Low, Low and Moderate) incomes are defined as less than 30 percent of area median income ( %, %, %). Residual income is household income less non-housing expenses. Renters include only households with up to four members. Sources: Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies tabulations of data from US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2015, Center for Women s Welfare self-sufficiency standards, Urban Institute and Brookings Tax Policy Center. 31