Transitions. Population and Economic Trends for Colorado and Garfield County

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1 Transitions Population and Economic Trends for Colorado and Garfield County Elizabeth Garner State Demography Office Colorado Department of Local Affairs Summer

2 Main Points Growing Forward Income Migration Aging Growth Ethnicity/race.

3 Big Picture Pop Change US million, million or.8% Colorado - 5,456,500 Ranked 2 nd fastest 1.9% - ND, 7 th absolute growth 101,000 TX, FL, CA, GA,WA, NC Range in Colorado +18,500 to % to -1.7%

9 Population Change by Place Areaname Pct Ch Total Ch GARFIELD COUNTY 56,150 56,052 56,835 57,103 57,484 58, % 1932 Carbondale 6,395 6,384 6,463 6,493 6,548 6, % 251 Glenwood Springs 9,571 9,543 9,663 9,816 9,846 9, % 338 New Castle 4,495 4,485 4,541 4,548 4,597 4, % 168 Parachute 1,080 1,074 1,090 1,091 1,095 1, % 23 Rifle 9,136 9,116 9,229 9,246 9,277 9, % 223 Silt 2,915 2,911 2,967 2,978 3,008 3, % 131 Unincorp. Area 22,558 22,539 22,882 22,931 23,113 23, % 798

11 1970 5, , , ,000

14 100,000 80,000 Colorado New Jobs and Net Migration New Jobs Net Migration 60,000 40,000 20, ,000-40,000 Source: State Demography Office

16 Garfield County Total Estimated Jobs 37,000 35,000 33,000 31,000 29,000 27,000 25, Recession Employment

17 Garfield Employment in 2015 as a % of 2008 Employment Source: SDO Total Estimated Jobs Series Utilities Education Health Services Admin and waste Agriculture Arts Government Accommodation and food Other services, except public administration Manufacturing Management of companies and enterprise Real estate Professional and business services Total Wholesale trade Finance activities Retail Trade Transportation and warehousing Information Construction Mining 57% 68% 74% 101% 100% 97% 96% 94% 94% 92% 90% 86% 86% 84% 127% 124% 118% 115% 112% 111% 137% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160%

18 Forecast

19 Population forecast methodology Economic forecast Cohort-component Jobs - 2 nd & 3 rd job - Commuters +Births - Deaths + Net Migration X LFPR Labor Demand Labor Supply Differences resolved by net migration

2010-40 State 2.8M Front Range 2.4M Denver Metro 1.

21 State 2.8M Front Range 2.4M Denver Metro 1.5 M North Front Range 500K South Front Range 400K Rest of State 400K

22 Forecast 2014v

24 Driver and Local Resident Service Jobs and Forecast for Garfield 2015 Jobs Share of Total 2030 Jobs Share of Total TRADITIONAL 5,644 17% 6,952 15% REGIONAL & NATIONAL SERVICES 5,926 18% 7,815 17% TOURISM 3,779 11% 4,308 9% RETIREE GENERATED JOBS 3,047 9% 7,082 15% PUBLIC ASST. GENERATED JOBS 587 2% 672 1% INVESTMENT INCOME & WEALTH 1,078 3% 1,444 3% TOTAL DIRECT BASIC JOBS 20,287 61% 28,381 61% LOCAL RESIDENT SERVICE 13,087 39% 18,318 39% TOTAL JOBS 33, % 46, %

27 Source: State Demography Office

28 Median Home Value

31 I M Age G E

32 Why Are We Getting Old Fast? Currently very few people over the age th lowest share of all states in US (10%) Baby Boomers Born ,340,000 Boomers in Colorado (26% of pop. in 2010) By 2030, Colorado s population 65+ will be 125% larger than it was in 2010 growing from 555,000 to 1,243,000. (just from aging) Transition age distribution from young to more US average between 2010 and State Demography Office, Census Bureau

35 Map 65+ change

37 Aging Issues in the Western Slope Numbers Economic Driver - wealthier. depends Spending of people 65+ supported approximately 137,000 jobs in (.25 jobs per person 65+) Impact on occupational mix Labor Force increase in demand for workers Housing - Retirees aging in place where do new workers live? Incomes Health/Disabilities Transportation How to attract and retain the young adult?

38 Labor Force tightening forces Female share of the labor force peaked in 2010 at 46%. Structural labor force participation rates peaked in Growth in Leavers (exiting the labor force) will create more demand for workers. Fewer Gen X Higher un/under employment for year olds. Other states experiencing same concerns. Aging around the world.

39 Millennial

40 Aging and Public Finance Ratio of 65+ per year olds in CO Becoming more normal End of the demographic dividend Public Finance change in revenue and expenditures. Income tax downward pressure Sales tax downward pressure Property tax downward pressure Health services increasing Medicaid increasing Transition

41 I M A G Ethnicity/Race increasing

42 Percent Hispanic

44 Census Bureau

45 Share of Net Increase in Working Age Population, American Indian, NH Black, NH White, NH Asian, NH Hispanic 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

46 Source ACS yr PUMS

47 Source ACS yr

48 Income M A G E

49 Household Income.its future is demographically challenged. Age distributions End of Demographic Dividend Occupational Mix high and low service More race/ethnicity diverse especially at young end but achievement gap is growing as well. Household type and size single and smaller. Youth un and under employment - Long term permanent impacts on earnings. State Demography Office

50 To Ponder in My Community Income Challenges how could downward pressure impact our community? Migration how much, where, and can we compete for the best and the brightest? Aging we are getting old fast, is my community ready for the changes to the labor force, income, industrial mix, housing, etc. Growth disparate across the state, what is causing it and what can be done? Ethnic/race diversity increasing and aging into labor force. Educational attainment gap continues putting downward pressure on income.

51 Thank you State Demography Office Department of Local Affairs Elizabeth Garner

52 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey ( )

53 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey ( )

Transitions. Population and Economic Trends for Colorado

Transitions. Population and Economic Trends for Colorado Transitions Population and Economic Trends for Colorado Cindy DeGroen State Demography Office Colorado Department of Local Affairs 2016 www.colorado.gov/demography State Demography Office State agency