Marshall & Lyon County Economic Update

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1 Marshall & Lyon County Economic Update Cameron Macht, Regional Analyst Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development ext

2 Population Challenge What is Marshall s current (2008) population? 12,647 people (U.S. Census Bureau Pop. Est. Program) 13,141 people (Minnesota State Demographic Center) What is Lyon County s current population? 24,844 people (U.S. Census Bureau Pop. Est. Program) 24,865 people (Minnesota State Demographic Center) How big are the surrounding cities and towns? Balaton Cottonwood Ghent Lynd Minneota Russell Tracy 632 people 1,118 people 367 (grew about 16.5% from 2000 to 2008) 404 (grew about 16.8% from 2000 to 2008) 1,366 people 335 people 2,065 people

Demographic Changes Southwest Minnesota is seeing continued population declines Declined -5.8% from 2000 to 2008 (state = 6.1%) Declined -12.3% (-22,765) from 1910 to 2008 (state = 151.

3 Demographic Changes Southwest Minnesota is seeing continued population declines Declined -5.8% from 2000 to 2008 (state = 6.1%) Declined -12.3% (-22,765) from 1910 to 2008 (state = 151.5%) Only Lyon Co. & Nobles Co. have more people now than in 1910 Population exodus has been more severe in Region 6W -31.0%; -20,678 6 of 14 counties peaked in population in 1940; 2 in 1950; 3 in 1960; 1 in 1920 & 1930 Lyon Co. peaked in of the 14 counties lost at least 500 people since 2000 Every county fell at least -2% 2 counties declined over -10% Smallest counties are seeing the fastest declines since 2000

4 Demographic Changes Every age group under age 55 is declining, 65 & over is increasing From 2000 to 2007, Southwest Minnesota saw a -3.3% decrease in the number of people under 5 years of age (state = +7.3%) In 1950, the region averaged 417 births per county; by 2007, it averaged 158 Number of deaths has remained constant from 1950 to 2007 (1,800-2,200) Southwest Minnesota is projected to continue declining Projected to drop -3.8% from 2005 to 2035 (state = 24.2%) Seeing declines in most age groups 0-14 years = -3,241 people years = -3, years = -1, years = -7, years = -3, years = years = +13,096 Total = -6,356 people

Demographic Changes Baby Boomers start reaching retirement age in 2011 In 2005, 19% of population was 65 years and over (state = 12%) By 2035, 28% of population will be 65 years and over (state = 21.

-2,300 from 2000 to 2007 Ben Winchester s research uncovered a rural rebound Where you want to live becomes the question The number of 35 to 44 year olds is declining overall, but there has been an

5 Demographic Changes Baby Boomers start reaching retirement age in 2011 In 2005, 19% of population was 65 years and over (state = 12%) By 2035, 28% of population will be 65 years and over (state = 21.7%) Big Stone, Lac qui Parle, & Murray will all have 33% aged 65 years and over Increasing life expectancies lead to growth, though not all will stay The number of senior citizens declined by nearly -2,300 from 2000 to 2007 Ben Winchester s research uncovered a rural rebound Where you want to live becomes the question The number of 35 to 44 year olds is declining overall, but there has been an influx in this age group over the last two decades Simplified Cohort Approach They brought their kids with them, increasing cohorts from year to year (declining overall) From 2002 to 2008, enrollments dropped -10%

6 Lyon County Demographics Lyon Co. lost about to 44-year-olds from 2000 to 2008, but held steady in Simplified Cohort Approach (3,032 to 3,026) Every school group but the 2 nd -to-8 th graders increased from Lyon Co. is more similar to the state than the rest of Southwest Larger percentage of 15 to 24 years olds (SMSU) Larger percentage 20.0% of 65 & over (14.5%) Smaller percentage 18.0% 16.0% Lyon Co. Minnesota 14.0% of 25 to 54 year olds 12.0% Less diverse than 10.0% 8.0% Minnesota (88.0%) 6.0% 94.5% White 4.0% 1.6% Asian 1.7% Some other race 2.0% 0.0% Under 5 5 to to to to to to & over

housing market slowed from 2007 to 2008 (sales = -30%) Sales rose in 2 of 14 counties: Lyon Co. = -16.2% (210 in 2007 to 176 in 2008) Sales prices went down in 8 of 14 counties Lyon Co. = +0.

7 Housing Changes Demographic decline has created changing housing demands Lyon Co. provided 34% of net housing stock growth from 2000 to of 14 counties saw a 2% or less gain in housing units, with 9 of the counties averaging less than 15 net new housing units each year The housing market slowed from 2007 to 2008 (sales = -30%) Sales rose in 2 of 14 counties: Lyon Co. = -16.2% (210 in 2007 to 176 in 2008) Sales prices went down in 8 of 14 counties Lyon Co. = +0.5% Lyon Co. ($127,000) had the highest median sales price by about $30,000 Rock Co.=$99,500; 9 counties below $75,000 According to Re/MAX-MarshallAreaHomes, how many houses were for sale in the Marshall area (including townships)? 205 homes for sale 53 at $200,000 or above 44 between $150,000 and $200, between $100,000 and $150,000

8 Unemployment Rates Unemployment rates in Region 8 are 1.0% higher than one year ago (5.4% in Aug vs. 4.4% in Aug. 2008; 3.5% in Aug. 2007) But much lower than the state (7.6%) and national (9.6%) rates State (7.6% vs. 5.4% vs. 4.3%) United States (9.6% vs. 6.1% vs. 4.6%) Lyon County 5.4% vs. 4.3% Marshall s rate = 4.2% Lower than the state rate 32 of the last 32 months Lyon County EDR 8 - Southwest Minnesota U S

Unemployment Rates Number of unemployed people in Lyon Co. ballooned from: 474 people (Aug. 2007) to 620 (Aug. 2008) to 801 (Aug. 2009) 69.

has also increased over the last two years, climbing from 14,128 available workers (Aug. 07) to 14,289 (Aug. 08) to 14,878 (Aug. 09) 5.

net (the state s online job posting tool) About 10% were in sales and related occupations About 20% were in production occupations About 10% were in transportation

9 Unemployment Rates Number of unemployed people in Lyon Co. ballooned from: 474 people (Aug. 2007) to 620 (Aug. 2008) to 801 (Aug. 2009) 69.0% increase over the last 24 months Total number of available workers in Lyon Co. has also increased over the last two years, climbing from 14,128 available workers (Aug. 07) to 14,289 (Aug. 08) to 14,878 (Aug. 09) 5.3% increase over 24 months There were over 160 job openings posted within the 10-county region on MinnesotaWorks.net (the state s online job posting tool) About 10% were in sales and related occupations About 20% were in production occupations About 10% were in transportation occupations Another 20% were in health care and social assistance occupations The education or training requirements for the jobs posted range from short-term on-the-job training (i.e. assembler/ packager, sales trainee) to bachelor s degrees and related work experience (i.e., registered nurse, licensed PhD psychologist, magnetic design engineer, etc.)

Industry Employment Statistics Southwest Minnesota has added jobs over the last 28 years From 1980 to 2008, Southwest gained about 15,000 covered jobs (+38%) Had 2.

10 Industry Employment Statistics Southwest Minnesota has added jobs over the last 28 years From 1980 to 2008, Southwest gained about 15,000 covered jobs (+38%) Had 2.3% of statewide jobs in 1980; but finished 2008 with 2.0% Southwest Minnesota has 4,132 firms and 54,340 covered jobs From 2007 to 2008, Southwest Minnesota added +213 jobs $30,264 average annual wages; +5.4% increase since % of jobs are in the goods-producing domain (State = 17.8%) Manufacturing = 10,266 jobs (18.9%) $36,452 avg. wage; +2.5% jobs Health Care & Social Assistance = 8,465 jobs (15.6%) $26,156 wage; -0.3% Retail Trade = 6,244 jobs (11.5%) $20,384 avg. wage; -6.0% jobs Accommodation & Food Services = 3,633 jobs (6.7%) $8,996 wage; -0.2% Educational Services = 4,466 jobs (8.2%) $33,540 avg. wage; +0.4% jobs Construction = 2,289 jobs (4.2%) $35,360 avg. wage; -2.1% jobs Wholesale Trade = 2,817 jobs (5.2%) $41,132 avg. wage; +2.8% jobs Finance & Insurance = 2,403 jobs (4.4%) $42,588 avg. wage; +0.5% jobs

11 Industry Employment Statistics

12 Job Challenge How many businesses are there in Marshall & Lyon County? Marshall Lyon County Census QCEW NonEmp Farms How many jobs are there in Marshall & Lyon County? ( ) Marshall 13,577* 11,711 Lyon County 15,635 14,876 * = zip code ,689 1,011 (627) Did Marshall & Lyon County gain jobs or lose jobs? ( ) Marshall Lyon County

13 Industry Employment Statistics Unemployment has been rising, but so has covered employment Lyon Co. added 162 net new covered jobs from Qtr to Qtr Lyon Co. & Marshall both declined -1.7% from Qtr to Qtr ,000 Marshall Lyon Co. 15,000 14,000 14,546 15,052 14,651 15,089 14,553 15,101 14,831 15,017 14,302 13,000 12,000 11,000 11,569 11,865 11,647 11,889 11,500 11,829 11,712 11,801 11,314 10,000 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 2009

Industry Employment Statistics Marshall had 552 firms and 11,314 covered jobs (Qtr. 1 2009) About 80.

14 Industry Employment Statistics Marshall had 552 firms and 11,314 covered jobs (Qtr ) About 80.5% of employment was in the private sector From 2008 to 2009, Marshall lost about -186 covered jobs $34,736 average annual wages; slight decrease since % of jobs are in the goods-producing domain (State = 17.8%) Education & Health Services = 62 firms and 2,303 jobs (20.4%) $33,436 avg. annual wage; +28 jobs (+1.2%) Manufacturing = 19 firms and 1,721 jobs (15.2%) $38,324 avg. annual wage; +113 jobs (+7.0%) (Food Mfg. ~ 1,249 jobs) Retail Trade = 92 firms and 1,632 jobs (14.4%) $24,544 avg. wage 26% of Region 8 s retail trade (& accomm.) jobs; +36 jobs (+2.3%) Accommodation & Food Services = 49 firms, 928 jobs (8.2%) $8,996 wage Public Administration = 37 firms, 607 jobs (5.4%) $40,664 wage; +27 jobs Transportation = 13 firms, 516 jobs (4.6%) $33,748 wage; -25 jobs Other Services = 41 firms, 326 jobs (2.9%) $21,268 wage; -159 jobs Construction = 54 firms, 302 jobs (2.7%) $44,200 wage; -32 jobs Professional & Tech. Svcs. = 25 firms, 262 jobs (2.3%) $50,960 wage Information = 9 firms, 125 jobs (1.1%) $30,420 avg. wage; -3 jobs

Job Vacancy Survey 2 nd Qtr. 2009 Job Vacancy Survey, Region 8 had 765 openings 38% fewer than 4 th Qtr.

00 median wage offer) Manufacturing (116 vacancies; $10.00 median wage offer) Public Administration (91 vacancies; $13.

15 Job Vacancy Survey 2 nd Qtr Job Vacancy Survey, Region 8 had 765 openings 38% fewer than 4 th Qtr. 2008; 4% fewer than 2 nd Quarter 2008 Largest number of vacancies were in: Accommodation & Food Svcs. (218 vacancies; $8.00 median wage offer) Manufacturing (116 vacancies; $10.00 median wage offer) Public Administration (91 vacancies; $13.59 median wage offer) Wholesale Trade (82 vacs.; $16.83 wage) Educational Svcs. (76 vacs.; $20.69 wage) 26% of vacancies require post-sec. education Food prep & serving workers have the highest number of openings

16 UI Claims & Occupations In Demand Unemployment Insurance claims jumped 38.5% from Production and construction & extraction occupations showed the largest increases; while farming, fish, & forest; personal care & service; and business & financial occupations showed the fastest increases Still more than 100 occupations in demand in the region CNAs, RNs, LPNs, HHAs, and PTs in healthcare; welders, CNC operators, salespeople, engineers, industrial machinery mechanics, and managers in manufacturing; accountants, office clerks, customer service reps, purchasing agents, sales & marketing managers; cashiers, waiters & waitresses, cooks, retail salespersons, janitors & cleaners, and first-line supervisors in retail trade & accommodation; social & human service assistants, police officers, correctional officers, and substance abuse counselors in social services; among many others Job opportunities at every level of education, from OJT to degrees Jobs requiring short-term OJT tend to be lower paying, while jobs requiring post-secondary education tend to be higher paying (with exceptions)

17 Workforce Demographic Challenge Is the workforce in Southwest Minnesota Older or Younger than the state of Minnesota?

18 Workforce Demographics Southwest Minnesota has a higher percentage of older workers 19.5% of the workforce is aged 55 years & over (State = 16.5%) 62.6% of the workforce is aged 25 to 54 years (State = 67.2%) But Southwest also has a higher percentage of younger workers 17.8% of the workforce is aged 14 to 24 years (State = 16.3%) 53.6% of the workforce is female (State = 50.8%) Turnover rates are very similar in the region to the rest of the state (9.7%) In manufacturing, 39.2% is under 35 years (State = 29.0%) 69.2% of the workforce is male (State = 69.7%) 37.1% of the workforce is aged 45 years & over (State = 45.6%) In healthcare & social asst., 84.3% is female (State = 79.8%) 19.9% of the workforce is aged 14 to 24 years (State = 13.5%) 19.5% of the workforce is aged 55 years & over (State = 17.5%) In retail trade, 27.5% is aged 14 to 24 years (State = 31.9%) 12.9% of the workforce is aged 14 to 18 years (29.7% of teen workforce)

19 How many of you know exactly what job you want after you graduate from high school? Communications, Analysis & Research Division

20 How many of you want to make money after you graduate from high school? Communications, Analysis & Research Division

21 What do you want to do? Some people know exactly what they want to do, other people have no idea Career planning isn t easy but it s serious business! Many people switch jobs many times (every 2 years) Take advantage of people who want to help, including: parents, friends, teachers, guidance counselors, etc. Career information is everywhere! -- Minnesota Careers Beyond that, how many students know where they want to live? Employers tell us they need help finding qualified employees for their jobs! Communications, Analysis & Research Division

22 Southwest Minnesota Career Expo Welcomed nearly 2,000 high school sophomores from the region to SMSU and Minnesota West Worthington Interactive Career Exhibits! Career Game Show Interviewing Skills & Advice You can SUPPORT the Career Expo!

23 Regional Salary Surveys Pay is the primary factor in choosing a job, according to LFA Better job benefits (including health insurance & retirement plans); better utilization of skills; job security; and schedule flexibility also important Southwest Minnesota is at the bottom of the state for pay rates Region 8 = $13.97; Region 6W = $13.48; State of MN = $17.13 Twin Cities = $18.90 the difference in annual wages is over $10,000! Sioux Falls = $13.75 very competitive with the Southwest region Low-paying jobs food prep & serving; personal care & service; sales & related; building cleaning & maint. have the smallest gaps in pay High-paying jobs management; architecture & engineering; business & financial operations; computer & mathematical; life, physical, & social science have the largest gaps in pay (from $30,000 to $45,000) Wage rates for farming, fishing & forestry and personal care & service occupations are higher in Southwest Minnesota Competitive wages for protective services; building & grounds cleaning; education, training & library; and transportation & material moving

Questions Cameron Macht 320-231-5174 ext. 7535 cameron.macht@state.mn.

24 Questions Cameron Macht ext Dept of Employment & Economic Development LMI Analyst HelpLine DEED Publications DEED LMI Web Site

Minnesota Energy Industry

Minnesota Energy Industry Energy Industry Jobs Q3 2000 Q3 2001 Q3 2002 Q3 2003 Q3 2004 Q3 2005 Q3 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2008 Q3 2009 Q3 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 2016 Minnesota Energy Consortium April 13, 2017 Cameron Macht DEED Labor