The Massachusetts Economy: Downshifting into Second Gear?
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1 The Massachusetts Economy: Downshifting into Second Gear? Alan Clayton-Matthews School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs Northeastern University Presented to MassEcon January 20, 2012
2 Quarterly Growth at Annual Rates (%) Massachusetts has had a stronger recovery than the U.S., but that may change. 8.0 Growth in Real Product, Massachusetts vs. U.S. Source: U.S., Bureau of Economic Analysis; Massachusetts: MassBenchmarks Projected Massachusetts U.S.
3 Growth From Same Month Prior Year (%) Growth rates are converging. 3.0 Massachusetts and U.S. Payroll Employment Growth Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 MA US
4 The strength of the recovery depends on where you live. 101% Payroll Employment Relative to March % 99% 98% 97% 96% Boston NECTA Division Massachusetts Springfield NECTA U.S. 95% 94% 93% Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11
5 There is a wide disparity in economic health across the Commonwealth. Unemployment Rates for Selected Municipalities, November 2011 Lawrence 14.4 Fall River 11.8 New Bedford 11.7 Springfield 10.4 Attleborough 8.8 Brockton 8.8 Lowell 8.7 Leominster 8.2 Chicopee 8 Marlborough 4.8 Framingham 4.6 Waltham 4.6 Watertown 4.6 Somerville 4.5 Arlington 4.3 Cambridge 4.1 Newton 4.1 Amherst 3.7 Brookline 3.4 Weston 3.3 Mount 3.1 Leyden 3 Whately 3 Dover 2.9
6 Percent of December 2010 Technology and manufacturing supported the state s economy this year. Employment Growth by Supersector, Massachusetts Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Total Construction Manufacturing Trade Trans Utilities Information Finance Prof Business Serv Education Health Serv Leisure Hospitality Other Services Government
7 2009=100 Which story is to be believed? 104 Massachusetts Employment Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Payroll-790 UI-202 Resident-CPS
8 Millions of Dollars at Annual Rates Withholding tax revenues are consistent with strong growth in the first half of 2011, and slowing growth in the second half of ,000 Wage and Salary Disbursements, Massachusetts (Derived from Withholding Taxes) 205, , , , , , , ,
9 Billions of Current Dollars Consumers stepped up spending at the end of the year. Will it continue? 72.0 Spending on Taxable Regular Sales Items and Motor Vehicles, Massachusetts Source: Massachusetts Dept. of Revenue, Alan Clayton-Matthews Q1 07Q1 08Q1 09Q1 10Q1 11Q1
10 2007=100 Demand in information technology markets has peaked at least temporarily. Semiconductor Billings Source: Semiconductor Industry Association, seasonally adjusted Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 World Europe Japan Americas Asia Pacific
11 $ Millions, 3-mo mov. Avg. Semiconductor equipment is an important manufacturing sector for Massachusetts. 3,500.0 Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Billings and Bookings Source: Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International 3, , , , , Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Billings Bookings
12 Nominal growth from prior quarter at annual rate (%) The third quarter was a dud for investment demand for info tech. U.S. Investment in Information and Processing Equipment and Software 25.0 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, NIPA Accounts
13 1998=100 A fall in exports to Europe could cut 0.5% to 0.75% from state growth in Merchandise Exports, Seaonally Adjusted Source: WISER, seasonally adjusted by NU Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 US MA
14 Quarterly Growth at Annual Rates Growth will be weak through the first half of Employment Growth, Massachusetts 4.0 Source: NEEP, Moody's Analytics
15 2011q2=100 Professional Business Services, Education and Health Services, and Information will have the fastest job growth Payroll Employment Trends Over the Forecast, Massachusetts Source: NEEP, Moody's Analytics Professional and Business Services Education & Health Services Information q1 12q1 13q1 14q1 15q1 Leisure and Hospitality Total Payroll Financial Activities Other Services Government Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, Utilities
16 The slow real estate market has an upside: more affordable housing. Median House Price to Per Capita Income Ratio, Massachusetts 9.0 Sources: Moody's Analytics, National Association of Realtors, NEEP q1 87q1 89q1 91q1 93q1 95q1 97q1 99q1 01q1 03q1 05q1 07q1 09q1 11q1 13q1 15q1
17 Aging Baby Boomers leave a hole that the Millennials may only partially fill % Population Growth by Age, Massachusetts, Source: Census Bureau, Alan Clayton-Matthews 82.6% 70.00% 50.00% 53.9% 30.00% 10.00% 3.9% 2.5% 9.8% 6.6% % -4.5% -7.4% % -18.7% < Total
18 Baby Boomers are aging into lower participation rate categories. 90% Employment Rates by Age, Massachsuetts, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Alan Clayton-Matthews 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% % 0%
19 2007 = 100 The level of full employment may peak about 2018 and then decline. Is this destiny? 108 Population, Employment, and Employment Rate, Massachusetts, % % % % 48% Population (L) Employment (L) Employment Rate (R) % Source: Census Bureau, BLS, Alan Clayton-Matthews % 45%
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