Housing Market Trends in the Washington Area
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1 Housing Market Trends in the Washington Area Mark White, Ph.D. Deputy Director, Center for Regional Analysis Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University March 1, 218
2 6. U.S. Gross Domestic Product Quarterly Change Real GDP (Billions) $17,5 % $17, $16,5 $16, $15,5 $15, $14,5 $14, $13, $13, Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis (Seasonally Adjusted, Chained 29 Dollars ) %
3 US Payroll Jobs Month-to-Month Change (s) Total (Millions) M Jan +2K Since M Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
4 2 U.S. Unemployment U-6 UR LFPR Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan Jan 8.2% Jan 4.1% Jan 62.7% Jan17 to Jan18 U-6-1.2% UR -.7% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted)
5 $1,2 $1, $8 $6 $4 $2 $ Average Weekly Wages Across all Industries QOTYC Average Weekly Wage 4 per. Mov. Avg. (Average Weekly Wage) $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ -$1 -$2 -$3 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
6 Consumer Confidence Current Situation Expectations Jan 217 Cur. = Exp. = 15.5 (1985 = 1) Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
7 U.S. New and Existing Home Sales Dec 16 Dec % (s) 7, 6,5 6, 5,5 5, 4,5 4, Existing (Left Axis) New (Right Axis) (s) Dec16- Dec % 77K 3,5 3, 2,5 2, Source: U.S. Census (New)(Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), National Association of Realtors (Existing)
8 The Washington Economy
9 Population Change Elements of Population Change Washington MSA 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, -2, -4, 1.9% 1.6% 1.5% 1.1% +1.% +.9% 22,979 5,525 3,827 37,714 38,895 36,749 4,119 42,24 4,581 49,5 49,178 47,773 48,669 46,424 43,886-26,362-29,417-31,1 Net Domestic Migration Net Int'l Migration Natural Increase Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, V216
10 11 Annual Job Change - Washington MSA MOTYC Non-Farm Jobs s s 3, ,3 3,2 3,1 3, 2,9 Dec 16- Dec K Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2,8 December-17 Total: 3,325 K
11 Employment Composition by Sector December 217 Washington MSA Professional & Business Services Education & Health Services Federal Government State & Local Government Leisure & Hospitality Retail Trade Other Services Construction Financial Activites Information Transportation & Utilities Wholesale Trade Manufacturing 6.1% 4.8% 4.8% 2.2% 2.2% 1.9% 1.6% 11.% 1.3% 1.1% 8.8% 13.9% 22.9% % 5% 1% 15% 2% 25% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics 11
12 (Ranked by Size in 216) Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs Federal Govt. State & Local Govt Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade Other Services Construction Financial Information Transp. & Util. Wlse Trade Manufacturing -5.8 Job Change by Sector Dec 216 Dec 217 Washington MSA (s) Total = 55, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
13 (s) Federal Government Washington MSA (s) Dec 16- Dec 17-5,8 MOTYC Total Jobs Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis December-17 Total: 364K
14 $ Billions Federal Procurement in the Washington MSA (Fiscal Years) 82.4 TOTAL = $1,388.5 Billion Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report and USAspending.gov
15 Housing Market Trends
16 Thousands Inventories of Existing Homes Month-Over-Year 2 217, MSA % Chg Inv Inventory Jan -9.4% Source: Bright MLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis. Total monthly inventory includes listings active at the end of the month plus sales during the month.
17 16, Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Through Jan , 12, 1, 12-Month Moving Average 8, 6, 4, 4,636 Jan 218 2, Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
18 2, 1,5 1, , -1,5-2, Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Month-Over-Year Change -122 Jan 218 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
19 3, Washington MSA Building Permits , 3-Month Moving Avg 2,5 2, Jan 1,529 1,5 1, 5 Source: Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
20 4, 35, (s) Inventory and Permits Washington MSA Inventory Permits 4, 3,5 3, 3, 25, 2,5 2, 2, 15, 1,5 1, 1, 5, 5 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
21 (s) (s) Median House Sales Price Washington MSA $39 K Jan 218 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
22 Median Sales Price Percent Change (MOTYC) Washington MSA Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
23 % Average Sales Price Percent Change (MOTYC) District of Columbia Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Jan = $631K
24 Average Sales Price Percent Change (MOTYC) Suburban Maryland % Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Jan = $369K
25 % Average Home Sales Price Percent Change (MOTYC) Northern Virginia Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Jan = $478.3K
26 Total Active Listings Per Sale February Each Year Metro Area Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
27 (%) MOTY Change 12 per. Mov. Avg. ($ Sales) (s) $8 2 Average Home Sales Price Northern VA - Single Family Detached $7 $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1 $ Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Jan 218 = $673,217, + 7%
28 (%) MOTY Change 12 per. Mov. Avg. ($ Sales) (s) $ Average Home Sales Price Northern VA - Single Family Attached $45 $4 $35 $3 $25 $2 $15 $1 $5 $ Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Jan 218= $43,183, + 7%
29 (%) MOTY Change 12 per. Mov. Avg. ($ Sales) (s) $4 25 Average Home Sales Price Northern VA - Condos $35 $3 $25 $2 $15 $1 $5-1 $ Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Jan 218 = $323,225, + 4.3%
30 Average Home Sales Price DC- Single Family Detached (%) MOTY Change 12 per. Mov. Avg. ($ Sales) (s) $1,4 $1,2 $1, $8 $6 $4 $2 $ Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Jan 218= $95,3, - 11%
31 (%) MOTY Change 12 per. Mov. Avg. ($ Sales) (s) $9 4 Average Home Sales Price DC- Single Family Attached $8 $7 $6 $ $4 $3 $2 $1 $ Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Jan 218= $69,, +.1%
32 (%) MOTY Change 12 per. Mov. Avg. ($ Sales) (s) $ Average Home Sales Price DC- Condos $ Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Jan 218= $495,6, -6% $6 $5 $4 $3 $2 $1
33 Median House Sales Price ($s) 7 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Arlington) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Fairfax County) Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
34 Number of Sales ($s) per. Mov. Avg. (Arlington) 12 per. Mov. Avg. (Fairfax County) Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
35 % -5% -1% Active Listings Jan 217-Jan % -9.8% (877) (999) -15% -16.7% -2% (33) -23.4% -25% Arlington County, VA (1515) Fairfax County, VA Loudoun County, VA Washington D.C *Active listing numbers in parenthesis Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
36 Closed Sales Jan 217-Jan 218 2% % -2% -4% -2.5% (154) -1.% (786) (547) +.4% -6% -8% -1% -12% Arlington County, VA Fairfax County, VA -9.7% (317) Loudoun County, VA Washington D.C *Closed Sales numbers in parenthesis
37 January Median Sales Prices Loudoun County $5, $45, $4, $35, $3, $25, $2, $15, $1, $5, $- 13.7% -4.% 7.1% 2.5%.% -22.8% 8.% 18.5% -.2% -2.3%
38 January Median Sales Prices Arlington County $7, $6, $5, $4, $3, $2, -22.8% 1.4% 7.5% 17.2% -11.5% 9.8% 4.2% 12.5% -7.3% -5.7% $1, $
39 January Median Sales Prices Fairfax County $5, $45, $4, $35, $3, $25, $2, $15, $1, $5, $ % 13.6% 2.9% 2.1% 12.9% 2.7% 3.1% 1.1% 3.6% 2.2%
40 Thank You Questions cra.gmu.edu
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