Metro Milwaukee Economic Trends January 2018

Transcription

1 Metro Milwaukee Economic Trends January 2018 Prepared by: Economic Research Division March 16, 2018 Metropolitan Milwaukee Association of Commerce

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3 January Economic Trends Metro Milwaukee Economic Trends Page 1 A majority of metro area business activity indicators improved in January, as 17 of 23 such indicators posted year-over-year gains, according to a monthly report by the Metropolitan Milwaukee Association of Commerce (MMAC). January s 17 improvements are up modestly from December s 16 upward pointing indicators. Metro Milwaukee s economy starts 2018 with broad-based gains posted across a number of local economic indicators, said Bret Mayborne, the MMAC s economic research director. Continuing improvement in the metro area unemployment picture as well as solid gains in the manufacturing sector set the table for a strong start to Highlights of the report include: Nonfarm employment in the metro area rose at a 1% pace in January (vs. January, 2017). January s gain marks an improvement from the revised 0.2% increase posted in December and marks the ninth consecutive month of year-over-year job increase. Six of ten major industry sectors posted year-over-year job gains in January with the government sector registering the largest such gain, up 2.8%. Conversely, among the four major industry decliners, the steepest job decrease was posted in the information sector, down 6.4%. Manufacturing indicators registered positive results in January. Manufacturing employment rose 1.9% vs. year-ago levels while a production worker s workweek length and earnings levels posted strong year-over-year increases. Local unemployment indicators continue to move in a positive direction. New unemployment compensation claims fell at an 8.4% pace (vs. year-ago levels), to 5,264. January s decline follows the 16.1% decline posted in December (vs. December, 2016). The number of unemployed in January fell at a double-digit rate, down 23.5% from January, 2017, to 25,000. As a result, metro Milwaukee s seasonally unadjusted January rate fell one percentage point from one year ago to 3%. Metro Milwaukee s rate ranks below both Wisconsin s 3.1% and the nation s 4.5% rate. Indicators: January, 2018 vs. January, 2017 Annual revisions to nonfarm employment for 2017 placed overall job growth in the metro area slightly higher than originally estimated. Before revision the average annual job gain for 2017 stood at 0.2%. This gain was revised upward to 0.3%. Year-over-year gains were posted in eleven of 2017 s twelve months. Metro Milwaukee s employment trend begins 2018 on the upswing. Nonfarm jobs rose 1% in January to 856,200, outpacing December s 0.2% increase. By major industry sector, six posted job gains in January outnumbering the four registering declines. Jobs in the government sector posted the largest percentage increase, up 2.8% vs. yearago levels. The construction, mining & natural resources (up 2.2%), other services (up 2.2%), education & health services (up 2.1%), manufacturing (up 1.9%), and professional & business services (up 1.5%) sectors also posted gains. Among sectors with job declines, January s steepest year-over-year decrease was registered in the information sector, down 6.4%. Employment declines were also posted in the financial

4 Metro Milwaukee Economic Trends Page 2 activities (down 2.9%), leisure & hospitality (down 0.7%), and trade, transportation & utilities (down 0.1%) sectors. Manufacturing s 1.9% January job increase marks this indicator s strongest year-over-year gain in one and one-half years (since July, 2012). Likewise, hours and earnings indicators in manufacturing also registered strong gains. The length of the average workweek for manufacturing production workers rose 1.2%, to 43.1 hours. Average weekly earnings for such workers increased 9.3% (to $988), while average hourly earnings rose 8.1% (to $22.92). Housing and real estate indicators tracked by the MMAC were mixed in January. Existing home sales in the metro area numbered 850, up 6.1%. January s increase was this indicator s fourth consecutive year-over-year increase. Conversely, mortgages recorded in Milwaukee County fell for the seventh consecutive month, down 6.7% from year-ago levels, to 1,834. New-car registrations in the metro area fell 11.1% in January, to 1.477, following the 6.6% increase posted in December (vs. December, 2016). Air passenger totals for Mitchell International Airport rose for the third consecutive month, up 7.9% from one year-ago, to 533,446. Other Indicators (latest available) Consumer prices nationally, as measured by the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U), rose 2.1% in January (vs. January, 2017) to ( =100). The Milwaukee area CPI-U reached for the second half of 2017, a 1.8% increase from 2016 s second half. For Further Information Contact: Bret J. Mayborne Economic Research Director

5 Metro Milwaukee Economic Trends Page 3 Metropolitan Milwaukee Business Indicators January, 2018 % chg. % chg. % chg. Current Previous Year from prev. year to Month month month ago yr. ago month date (1) ESTABLISHMENT DATA Total nonfarm payroll employment (000) Jan % -1.6% 1.0% Construction, mining & natural res. (000) Jan % -2.4% 2.2% Manufacturing (000) Jan % 0.8% 1.9% Trade, transportation, & utilities (000) Jan % -1.6% -0.1% Information (000) Jan % -0.8% -6.4% Financial activities (000) Jan % -1.8% -2.9% Professional & business services (000) Jan % -3.6% 1.5% Education & health services (000) Jan % -2.1% 2.1% Leisure & hospitality (000) Jan % -3.0% -0.7% Other services, exc. public (000) Jan % 1.5% 2.2% Government (000) Jan % -1.6% 2.8% LABOR FORCE DATA Civilian labor force (000) Jan % 0.3% 0.2% Employed (000) Jan % 0.0% 1.2% Unemployed (000) Jan % 10.6% -23.5% Unemployment rate Metro Milwaukee Jan % 2.8% 4.0% -1.0(4) 0.2(4) -1.0(4) Wisconsin Jan % 2.7% 4.0% -0.9(4) 0.4(4) -0.9(4) United States Jan % 3.9% 5.1% -0.6(4) 0.6(4) -0.6(4) New unemployment compensation claims Jan-18 5,264 4,706 5, % 11.9% -8.4% HOURS & EARNINGS (mfg. production workers) Avg. weekly hours (manuf.) Jan % -0.7% 1.2% Avg. weekly earnings (2) Jan-18 $ $1, $ % -1.7% 9.3% Avg. hourly earnings (2) Jan-18 $22.92 $23.15 $ % -1.0% 8.1% HOUSING & REAL ESTATE Existing homes sold Jan , % -24.6% 6.1% Mortgages (number) (3) Jan-18 1,834 1,901 1, % -3.5% -6.7% TRANSPORTATION Airport passengers Jan , , , % -0.9% 7.9% New-car registrations Jan-18 1,477 1,669 1, % -11.5% -11.1% OTHER INDICATORS (latest available) Consumer price index ( =100) Milwaukee (CPI-U) 2ndH % 0.3% 2.0% United States (CPI-U) Jan % 0.5% 2.1% Notes: (1) The average or cumulative figure year-to-date vs. the same total one year ago. (2) Not adjusted for inflation. (3) Milwaukee County only. (4) Percentage point change. Figures are not seasonally adjusted except where indicated (SA). Figures are for metro Milwaukee (Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Washington & Waukesha counties) except where indicated. Sources: Wisconsin Dept. of Workforce Development, Multiple Listing Service, Milwaukee County Register of Deeds Office, Mitchell International Airport, Wisconsin Dept. of Transportation, and U.S. Dept. of Labor.

6 Metro Milwaukee Economic Trends Page 4 Nonfarm Employment - Metro Milwaukee Percent change vs. year-ago levels 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% 1/04 1/05 1/06 1/07 1/08 1/09 1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14 1/15 1/16 1/17 1/18 8.0% 4.0% 0.0% -4.0% -8.0% -12.0% Year-over-Year Job Change - Metro Milwaukee Service providing vs. Goods producing sectors Service providing Goods producing -16.0% 1/04 1/05 1/06 1/07 1/08 1/09 1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14 1/15 1/16 1/17 1/18 Year-Over-Year Job Change by Industry - Metro Milwaukee Percent change January, 2017 to January, % 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% Total employment Const., mining & nat. res. Manufacturing Trade, trans., & util. Information Financial activities Prof. & bus. services Ed. & health services Leisure & hospitality Other services Government