Metro Milwaukee Business Outlook Survey First-Quarter, 2018

Transcription

1 Metro Milwaukee Business Outlook Survey First-Quarter, 2018 Prepared by: Economic Research Division January 23, 2018 Metropolitan Milwaukee Association of Commerce

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3 Metro Milwaukee Business Outlook Survey - Page 1 Metro Milwaukee Business Outlook Survey, First-Quarter, 2018 Continued optimism was expressed by Milwaukee area businesses for 2018, according to a Business Outlook Survey conducted by the Metropolitan Milwaukee Association of Commerce (MMAC). Eighty percent of businesses surveyed see sales increases in 2018, 75% predict profit gains, and 69% expect employment growth for their local operations. The national economic expansion is now into its ninth year one of longest on record but it begs the question of how long it will last, said Bret Mayborne, MMAC s economic research director. While the metro area s overall job trend was fairly sluggish in 2017, business expectations for jobs, profits and sales continue to suggest a strong local growth environment for Calendar year sales optimism among Milwaukee area businesses remains strong. Eighty percent of those surveyed expect increases in real sales levels in The proportion predicting 2018 sales growth ranks higher than the 73% who began 2017 predicting sales gains for that year as a whole, and ranks as the strongest calendar year sales expectation expressed since 2015 s second quarter. Currently, only 6% predict sales declines, while the remainder (14%) see no change. The sales outlook by industry is fairly balanced. Eighty-one percent of manufacturers predict sales growth in 2018, vs. 79% among non-manufacturers. By employment size, large employers (100 or more employees) are somewhat more likely to forecast 2018 sales gains than small employers (84% of large employers see sales increases vs. 76% for small companies). Profit expectations for area businesses are likewise robust. Seventy-five percent of those surveyed see profit level improvements in 2018, four percentage points higher than at the opening of Currently only 8% see profit declines while 18% expect no change. Manufacturers (79%) and large employers (79%) are most likely to predict 2018 profit gains. Regarding capital spending plans, 53% of all companies surveyed forecast a rise in capital expenditures for the year. Eleven percent see capital spending declines and 37% expect no change. The percentage predicting increases is up from the 42% who opened 2017 expecting capital spending gains. At present 56% of large employers predict increases in capital expenditures in 2018 vs. 49% among small employers. A lackluster metro area job trend was evident throughout Small year-over-year job declines posted in 2017 s first half were offset by small increases in its second half. Overall, on average, metro area nonfarm employment is likely to finish 2017 mostly flat. Nonetheless, survey results suggest confidence in future job increases with 69% of all businesses expecting gains in their local workforces in 2018, outnumbering those predicting declines (3%) by a large margin. Twenty-eight percent see no change. A majority of employers see job gains regardless of industry or size of employer. Currently, 69% of manufacturers predict job increases during the calendar year 2018, equaling the percentage for non-manufacturers. Seventy-one percent of small employers predict 2018 job gains (vs. 67% for large employers). Tighter unemployment rates in the area may help explain an upward trend in forecast wage and salary levels. Presently, the average change in per person employee wages and salaries is

4 Metro Milwaukee Business Outlook Survey - Page 2 forecast to rise 3.3% over the next 12 months, equaling the increase projected three months ago. The current increase marks the second consecutive time and only the third time in the economic recovery period in which wage & salary expectations have matched or exceeded 3%. Consumer price inflation nationally has risen in recent months from a 1.6% year-over-year increase in June, 2017 to November s 2.2% increase. Area businesses expect inflationary pressure to remain moderate. Over one-half (52%) of all companies surveyed see 2018 inflation rates falling in the 3% to 5% range, while the largest remaining percentage (40%) expect price increases of 0% to 2%. Eight percent foresee inflation of 6% or higher. First Quarter, 2018 Expectations Businesses are more tempered in their optimism toward 2018's first quarter. Sixty-nine percent of those surveyed expect first-quarter real sales gains (vs s first quarter), lower than the 80% who predict sales increases for 2018 as a whole. Nonetheless, only 5% see first-quarter sales declines, and 26% expect no change. Current quarterly sales expectations match those expressed in 2017 s fourth quarter when 69% also forecast quarterly sales growth. First-quarter profit expectations are particularly high. Sixty-seven percent see higher profits for the quarter (vs s first quarter), while only 7% predict profit declines. Twenty-six percent see no change. The percentage expecting profit increases is up from the 63% who forecast fourth-quarter 2017 profit gains and ranks as the highest quarterly profit expectation given since 2015 s second quarter. Just over half (51%) of all businesses surveyed predict first-quarter job gains for their local operations (vs s first quarter), while only 4% see job declines, the smallest number expecting declines since 2015 s first quarter. The current percentage forecasting quarterly job gains has ticked down a bit in recent quarters, from the 53% who forecast fourth-quarter 2017 job increases (vs. year-ago levels) and the 61% who predicted third-quarter, 2017 gains. Manufacturers expressed a higher degree of confidence toward first-quarter employment gains than non-manufacturers. Fifty-five percent of manufacturers see employment increases in the first-quarter 2018 (vs. 2017's first quarter) vs. 49% among non-manufacturers surveyed. A similar differential was registered between larger employers (where 54% predict first-quarter job gains) and smaller employers (48% see such gains). The Business Outlook Survey, conducted by the MMAC, contains responses from 112 Milwaukee area firms, both large and small, employing more than 35,900 people. For further information contact: Bret J. Mayborne Economic Research Director

5 Metro Milwaukee Business Outlook Survey - Page 3 MMAC s First-Quarter 2018 Business Outlook Survey* Firms Employers by Size Employers by Industry Expecting a: Large Small (1) Manuf. Non-Manuf. TOTAL 2018 Forecast Change in the dollar volume of Sales (net of inflationary effects) expected by 120 Milwaukee area RISE : 48 (84%) 48 (76%) 34 (81%) 62 (79%) 96 (80%) firms for the entire year of 2018 DECLINE : 3 (5%) 4 (6%) 2 (5%) 5 (6%) 7 (6%) vs. the entire year of 2017 NO CHANGE : 6 (11%) 11 (17%) 6 (14%) 11 (14%) 17 (14%) Change in dollar volume of Profits expected by 119 Milwaukee area RISE : 45 (79%) 44 (71%) 33 (79%) 56 (73%) 89 (75%) firms for the entire year of 2018 DECLINE : 5 (9%) 4 (6%) 2 (5%) 7 (9%) 9 (8%) vs. the entire year of 2017: NO CHANGE : 7 (12%) 14 (23%) 7 (17%) 14 (18%) 21 (18%) Change in the dollar volume of Capital Expenditures expected by 120 Milwaukee area firms for RISE : 32 (56%) 31 (49%) 23 (55%) 40 (51%) 63 (53%) the entire year of 2018 vs. the DECLINE : 7 (12%) 6 (10%) 5 (12%) 8 (10%) 13 (11%) entire year of 2017: NO CHANGE : 18 (32%) 26 (41%) 14 (33%) 30 (38%) 44 (37%) Rate of Inflation expected to affect 0-2% INFLATION : 18 (32%) 30 (48%) 19 (45%) 29 (38%) 48 (40%) 119 Milwaukee area operations 3-5% INFLATION : 37 (65%) 25 (40%) 19 (45%) 43 (56%) 62 (52%) for the entire year of 2018: 6-9% INFLATION : 2 (4%) 6 (10%) 4 (10%) 4 (5%) 8 (7%) 10% or more : 0 (0%) 1 (2%) 0 (0%) 1 (1%) 1 (1%) Change in the level of Total Employment expected by 120 RISE : 38 (67%) 45 (71%) 29 (69%) 54 (69%) 83 (69%) Milwaukee area firms for the DECLINE : 2 (4%) 1 (2%) 0 (0%) 3 (4%) 3 (3%) entire year of 2018 vs. 2017: NO CHANGE : 17 (30%) 17 (27%) 13 (31%) 21 (27%) 34 (28%) 2018 First Quarter (Compared to Previous Quarter) Change in dollar volume of Sales (net of inflationary effects) expected RISE : 34 (60%) 36 (57%) 22 (52%) 48 (62%) 70 (58%) by 120 Milwaukee area firms for 1st DECLINE : 7 (12%) 13 (21%) 9 (21%) 11 (14%) 20 (17%) quarter 2018 vs. 4th quarter 2017: NO CHANGE : 16 (28%) 14 (22%) 11 (26%) 19 (24%) 30 (25%) 2018 First Quarter (Compared to Same Quarter One Year Ago) Change in dollar volume of Sales (net of inflationary effects) expected RISE : 40 (70%) 41 (67%) 29 (73%) 52 (67%) 81 (69%) by 118 Milwaukee area firms for the DECLINE: 0 (0%) 6 (10%) 2 (5%) 4 (5%) 6 (5%) 1st quarter 2018 vs. 1st quarter 2017: NO CHANGE : 17 (30%) 14 (23%) 9 (23%) 22 (28%) 31 (26%) Change in the dollar volume of Profits expected by 117 Milwaukee RISE : 40 (70%) 38 (63%) 31 (76%) 47 (62%) 78 (67%) firms for the 1st quarter 2018 vs. DECLINE : 2 (4%) 6 (10%) 2 (5%) 6 (8%) 8 (7%) 1st quarter of 2017: NO CHANGE : 15 (26%) 16 (27%) 8 (20%) 23 (30%) 31 (26%) Change in the level of Total Employment expected by 119 RISE : 31 (54%) 30 (48%) 23 (55%) 38 (49%) 61 (51%) Milwaukee area firms for the 1st DECLINE : 2 (4%) 3 (5%) 2 (5%) 3 (4%) 5 (4%) quarter 2018 vs. 1st quarter 2017: NO CHANGE : 24 (42%) 29 (47%) 17 (40%) 36 (47%) 53 (45%) Average change in the per person, employee Wages & Salaries expected in the next 12 months: AVERAGE : 3.1% 3.4% 3.2% 3.4% 3.3% * Percentages may not sum to 100 due to rounding. (1) Employment of less than 100 people.

6 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Rise Decline No Change Metro Milwaukee Business Outlook Survey - Page 4 Quarterly Real Sales Expectations - Metro Milwaukee (% of businesses expecting rise, decline or no chg. from same quarter one year ago) 0% Q1-01Q1-02Q1-03Q1-04Q1-05Q1-06Q1-07Q1-08Q1-09Q1-10Q1-11Q1-12Q1-13Q1-14Q1-15Q1-16Q1-17Q % 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Rise Decline No Change Quarterly Real Profit Expectations - Metro Milwaukee (% of businesses expecting rise, decline or no chg. from same quarter one year ago) 0% Q1-01 Q1-02 Q1-03 Q1-04 Q1-05 Q1-06 Q1-07 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Q1-14 Q1-15 Q1-16 Q1-17 Q % 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Rise Decline No Change Quarterly Employment Expectations - Metro Milwaukee (% of businesses expecting rise, decline or no chg. from same quarter one year ago) 0% Q1-01 Q1-02 Q1-03 Q1-04 Q1-05 Q1-06 Q1-07 Q1-08 Q1-09 Q1-10 Q1-11 Q1-12 Q1-13 Q1-14 Q1-15 Q1-16 Q1-17 Q1-18