Metro Milwaukee Economic Trends October, 2014

Transcription

1 Metro Milwaukee Economic Trends October, 2014 Prepared by: Economic Research Division December 3, 2014 Metropolitan Milwaukee Association of Commerce

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3 October Economic Trends Metro Milwaukee Economic Trends Page 1 Sixteen of 23 metro area business activity indicators registered improvement in October, according to a monthly report by the (MMAC). While October s 16 positives is down from the 19 improvements posted in September, the monthly aggregate remains at a healthy level. Strong metro area job gains have led to significant improvements in the local area unemployment rate in recent months, said Bret Mayborne, economic research director for the MMAC. In addition early signs suggest that area housing and real estate indicators may have turned the corner, moving from the weakness of the past year to a strengthening trend. Highlights of the report include: Nonfarm employment in the metro area averaged 855,500 in October growing at a 2.3% pace over year-ago levels. Milwaukee s pace of growth ranks above both national (up 2%) and state (up 1.2%) job gains over the same time period. Six of ten major industry sectors recorded year-over-year job increases in October, three posted declines and one showed no change from one year ago. Construction, mining and natural resource posted October s largest employment gain, up 11.9%, while the government, sector registered the largest decline (down 1.2%). For the first time in 15 months, both housing and real estate indicators tracked by the MMAC rose over year-ago levels. Existing home sales in the metro area rose 2.5% and mortgages recorded in Milwaukee County increased 4.2%. Increasing job totals have led to significant improvement in the local unemployment situation. Metro Milwaukee s seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate fell to 5.3% in October, 1.4 percentage points below the unemployment rate posted one year ago, matching the steepest yearover-year decline posted in over three years (since March, 2011). The current unemployment rate is higher than the 4.6% rate recorded statewide, but lower than the nation s 5.5% rate. Other metro area unemployment indicators were likewise positive. New unemployment compensation claims fell 25.7%, to 4,730, while the total number of unemployed fell 19.2% to 43,000. Indicators: October, 2014 vs. October, 2013 Nonfarm employment in the metro area grew at a 2.3% pace in October (vs. year-ago levels) to 855,500 jobs, a net gain of 19,200 jobs. Current growth exceeds year-to-date trend growth (up 1.8%) and surpasses both the national (up 2%) and state (up 1.2%) growth levels. Six of ten major industry sectors posted year-over-year job gains in October. Employment in the construction, mining & natural resources rose 11.9%, the strongest year-over-year percentage gain among major industry sectors. Job gains were also recorded in the leisure & hospitality (up 7.6%), professional & business services (up 3.2%), education & health services (up 2.5%), manufacturing (up 2.5%), and trade, transportation & utilities (up 1%) sectors. Three of ten major industry sectors registered year-over-year employment declines in October. Jobs in the government sector fell 1.2%, to 91,700, this sector s first year-over-year decline in 15

4 Metro Milwaukee Economic Trends Page 2 months. Smaller declines were posted in the information (down 0.7%) and financial activities (down 0.6%) sectors. Jobs in one sector, other services, were unchanged from year-ago levels. Manufacturing job growth has accelerated in each of the past five months. October s 2.5% gain ranked higher than the 1.9% growth posted in September and matches the highest growth rate posted in this sector since March, Hours and earnings indicators for manufacturing production workers were mixed. The length of a production worker s average workweek fell 2.8% in October (to 41.8 hours). Conversely both earnings indicators pointed upward. Average weekly earnings rose 3.9% (to $827), while average hourly earnings increased 6.9%, to $ Both local housing and real estate indicators tracked by the MMAC trended upward in October. Back-to-back gains were posted in metro area existing home sales. Sales rose 2.5% in October (to 1,216) following the 5.2% gain registered in September. Mortgages recorded in Milwaukee County increased for the first time since July, Mortgages numbered 2,171 in October, a 4.2% increase over levels posted one year ago. New-car registrations fell 6.9% in October to 2,538. October s fall marks this indicator s third year-over-year decline in four months. Air passenger totals at Mitchell International Airport fell for the second consecutive month. Passenger numbers fell 2.4% in October (to 554,390) following the 2.9% decline posted in September. Other Indicators (latest available) The value of signed construction contracts, as reported by F.W. Dodge for September, was $108.5 million, up 21.4% from September, Consumer prices nationally, as measured by the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U), rose 1.7% in October (vs. October, 2013) to ( =100). The Milwaukee area CPI-U reached for the first half of 2014, a 1.1% increase from 2013's first half. For Further Information Contact: Bret J. Mayborne Economic Research Director

5 Metro Milwaukee Economic Trends Page 3 Metropolitan Milwaukee Business Indicators October, 2014 % chg. % chg. % chg. Current Previous Year from prev. year to Month month month ago yr. ago month date (1) ESTABLISHMENT DATA Total nonfarm payroll employment (000) Oct % 0.4% 1.8% Construction, mining & natural res. (000) Oct % 2.0% 5.4% Manufacturing (000) Oct % 0.0% 0.4% Trade, transportation, & utilities (000) Oct % 1.2% 0.6% Information (000) Oct % -0.7% -0.8% Financial activities (000) Oct % 0.2% -2.4% Professional & business services (000) Oct % -1.0% 1.3% Education & health services (000) Oct % 1.3% 3.9% Leisure & hospitality (000) Oct % -1.1% 3.5% Other services, exc. public (000) Oct % -0.7% 0.8% Government (000) Oct % 1.7% 3.4% LABOR FORCE DATA Civilian labor force (000) Oct % 0.3% 0.7% Employed (000) Oct % 0.4% 1.9% Unemployed (000) Oct % -0.7% -14.6% Unemployment rate Metro Milwaukee Oct % 5.4% 6.7% -1.4(4) -0.1(4) -1.1(4) Wisconsin Oct % 4.7% 5.9% -1.3(4) -0.1(4) -1.1(4) United States Oct % 5.7% 7.0% -1.5(4) -0.2(4) -1.2(4) New unemployment compensation claims Oct-14 4,730 4,002 6, % 18.2% -19.7% HOURS & EARNINGS (mfg. production workers) Avg. weekly hours (manuf.) Oct % -1.2% -3.6% Avg. weekly earnings (2) Oct-14 $ $ $ % 0.0% 0.6% Avg. hourly earnings (2) Oct-14 $19.79 $19.55 $ % 1.2% 4.3% HOUSING & REAL ESTATE Existing homes sold Oct-14 1,216 1,278 1, % -4.9% -4.3% Mortgages (number) (3) Oct-14 2,171 2,133 2, % 1.8% -29.6% TRANSPORTATION Airport passengers Oct , , , % 13.0% 1.3% New-car registrations Oct-14 2,538 2,984 2, % -14.9% -0.6% OTHER INDICATORS (latest available) Construction contracts ($000) (2) Sep , ,618 89, % -77.2% 56.0% Consumer price index ( =100) Milwaukee (CPI-U) 1stH % 1.5% 1.1% United States (CPI-U) Oct % -0.3% 1.7% Notes: (1) The average or cumulative figure year-to-date vs. the same total one year ago. (2) Not adjusted for inflation. (3) Milwaukee County only. (4) Percentage point change. Figures are not seasonally adjusted except where indicated (SA). Figures are for metro Milwaukee (Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Washington & Waukesha counties) except where indicated. Sources: Wisconsin Dept. of Workforce Development, Multiple Listing Service, Milwaukee County Register of Deeds Office, Mitchell International Airport, Wisconsin Dept. of Transportation, F.W. Dodge, and U.S. Dept. of Labor.

6 Metro Milwaukee Economic Trends Page 4 4.0% Nonfarm Employment - Metro Milwaukee Percent change vs. year-ago levels 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% 1/04 1/05 1/06 1/07 1/08 1/09 1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/14 8.0% Year-over-Year Job Change - Metro Milwaukee Service providing vs. Goods producing sectors 4.0% 0.0% -4.0% -8.0% -12.0% Service providing Goods producing -16.0% 1/04 1/05 1/06 1/07 1/08 1/09 1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/ % Year-Over-Year Job Change by Industry - Metro Milwaukee Percent change October, 2013 to October, % 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% Total employment Const., mining & nat. res. Manufacturing Trade, trans., & util. Information Financial activities Prof. & bus. services Ed. & health services Leisure & hospitality Other services Government